A Surviving Aquitaine

WI William Aigret (1126-1130), the only legitimate son of William X of Aquitaine, had managed to survive childhood and succeed his father to the Duchy of Aquitaine? Let's assume that butterflies are kept to a minimum in this scenario, and William X dies of food poisoning in 1137 while making a pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela.

What is likely to happen? With *William IX still a minor at age eleven, who will assume the regency? Perhaps one of Obviously an independent Aquitaine in the twelfth and thirteenth centuries--assuming *William XI has heirs and the House of Poitiers retains the duchy and its territories--is going to have major effects and butterflies galore. Perhaps Aquitaine will regain Toulouse in the near future? The (rather appealing) idea of *William XI potentially wedding Petronilla of Aragon and laying the foundations for an Occitan kingdom comes to mind (assuming of course that she is still born in 1136, and, assuming that the immediate butterflies in the first few years following 1130 are not great, I don't see why not). I also can see Eleanor of Aquitaine still wedding Louis VII, and perhaps she'll manage to bear him a son and the union will be slightly more successful, dynastically speaking, than OTL.

If this question has been asked before, I apologize, but after probing through this board's archives I was (surprisingly) at a loss to find anything.
 
I think this has never really been brought on the table. It's a very interesting question.

Endymion said:
What is likely to happen? With *William IX still a minor at age eleven, who will assume the regency?

I think Eleanor would have great chances of being named regent for her 11 year old brother. There are two reason for me to think this: one is that she is wedded to Louis VII, who is the King of France and regarded as the overlord of the French Nobles (being King). The second fact is the friendship between William X of Aquitaine and Louis VI of France (father of Louis VII): that's one of the main reasons Eleanor wedded Louis VII OTL. I can thus see William X leaving the regency of his son *William XI to his daughter Eleanor and stepson Louis VII of France. The regency wouldn't last long anyway: most of the Middle Age's princely families considered that you were old enough to rule around 14/15. So *William XI would probably have a 3-4 year regency before he takes power.

Endymion said:
Perhaps one of Obviously an independent Aquitaine in the twelfth and thirteenth centuries--assuming *William XI has heirs and the House of Poitiers retains the duchy and its territories--is going to have major effects and butterflies galore.

It will have concrete buterfflies for sure: for one, Eleanor never becomes Duchess and thus is a far less appealing princess. If she still "divorces" Louis VII like OTL, she will be far less attractive princess because she won't bring anything with her, except maybe a few acre of lands as dowry.

Indirectly, it aslo weakens OTL Henry II of England. Even if he does wed Eleanor in this scenario, he won't have the magnificient ressources of Aquitaine: at best, he will have support from *William XI but that's no guarantee. Thus, he will only have the titles of Duke of Normandy & Count of Anjou, Maine & Tourraine. He can still conquer England of course, but it will be harder for him.

And of course, the character of *William XI himself will be important: since he died at age 4 OTL, you can practically have him do anything. He is the wildest card in that scenario.

Endymion said:
Perhaps Aquitaine will regain Toulouse in the near future? The (rather appealing) idea of *William XI potentially wedding Petronilla of Aragon and laying the foundations for an Occitan kingdom comes to mind (assuming of course that she is still born in 1136, and, assuming that the immediate butterflies in the first few years following 1130 are not great, I don't see why not).

I'm not sure the Dukes of Aquitaine would be successful in claiming Toulouse for themselves. The heirs of Raymond IV did a pretty good job at keeping the County of Toulouse for years and were regarded as the legitimate rulers of Toulouse. They even have a pretty strong claim to back their legitimacy. Of course, if there is still an Albegisian Crusade like OTL against the Cathars, it's possible the Duke of Aquitaine takes part in it and tries to reclaim Toulouse: but even then, that is not so sure because the House of Rouergue (I think that's the name of Raymond IV's family) held a lot of influence in that part of the Languedoc.

The Dukes of Aquitaine establishing an Occitan Kingdom is also a bit problematic to me: remember that they were vassals of the French King and claiming a crown would put them at war with him. So, the French King will probably try everything he can to avoid Aquitaine becoming a rival Kingdom. It's also likely the vassals neighboring Aquitaine would side with the French King against the Duke in this scenario, because they wouldn't want a very powerful neighbor. Doesn't mean the Duke of Aquitaine couldn't try, but that will certainly play in the balance when he comes to taking that decision.

Endymion said:
I also can see Eleanor of Aquitaine still wedding Louis VII, and perhaps she'll manage to bear him a son and the union will be slightly more successful, dynastically speaking, than OTL.

I don't know if Eleanor would really be able to give a son to Louis VII nor to stay married to him: the characters of husband and wife were too different. Eleanor came from a rich southern fief, was very cultivated and refined and she felt quite out of place at the French court. For his part, Louis VII was very pious because he originally had been planned to enter the Church: Eleanor often said that she had married not a King but a monk.

On the other hand, Eleanor will need to strenghten her position in the French court because she can't count on inheriting Aquitaine unless her younger brother dies. I do not see her murdering her brother, so the only option would be to stay close to her husband the King of France: for that, she needs to avoid any suspicions of having committed adultery and to stay close to Louis VII. And since giving birth to a son would probably do wonders in that regards, it's likely that she would probably try to get pregnant more than she did OTL (Eleanor and Louis VII only had two daughters, born in 1145 and 1150).

This brings me a side question: what would be Eleanor's dowry if she doesn't inherit Aquitaine? A small Aquitan or Poitevin fief I believe, but which one?
 
The Dukes of Aquitaine establishing an Occitan Kingdom is also a bit problematic to me: remember that they were vassals of the French King and claiming a crown would put them at war with him. So, the French King will probably try everything he can to avoid Aquitaine becoming a rival Kingdom. It's also likely the vassals neighboring Aquitaine would side with the French King against the Duke in this scenario, because they wouldn't want a very powerful neighbor. Doesn't mean the Duke of Aquitaine couldn't try, but that will certainly play in the balance when he comes to taking that decision.

Generally, I would agree with you. Especially considering that at this time in Europe there was still a great deal of debate as to whether one anointed sovereign could legally owe fealty to another, even if he possessed fiefs in said king's realm (i.e. the disputes between Henry II and Louis VII in OTL). However, in this scenario, Ramiro II of Aragon may just decide to betroth his infant daughter and heiress, Petronilla, to *William XI in 1137 and not Ramon Berenguer IV of Barcelona. After all, Ramiro's wife, Agnes, was the sister of William X (with whom he had close ties) and Aquitaine was well placed to protect Aragon and its infant queen, due to its wealth and relative strength--something that Ramiro, who was no warrior himself, deeply desired. A personal union between Aquitaine and Aragon would have many wide reaching effects, namely giving the House of Poitiers a vested interest in the Reconquista and strengthening the powers of the Aragonese king in relation to the often unwieldy nobility of that realm.

This brings me a side question: what would be Eleanor's dowry if she doesn't inherit Aquitaine? A small Aquitan or Poitevin fief I believe, but which one?

I would imagine something similar to that of her sister, Alix, in OTL. Sadly, I'm unable to find any sources mentioning what her dowry consisted of, though I assume minor estates and lands (were cash dowries customary yet among the ruling elite in the twelfth century?). The real prize is going to be the friendship of Aquitaine, or, in the case of France, it's continued cooperation.
 
Aquitaine

This means no English Aquitaine ( or later Gascony), so if the Hundred Years Wars still erupt, they will of a completely different character than in OTL.
 
This means no English Aquitaine ( or later Gascony), so if the Hundred Years Wars still erupt, they will of a completely different character than in OTL.

I'd argue that this makes a Hundred Years Analogue very unlikely, chiefly because the English don't have the position of ruling half of France themselves. On the other hand, the position of King of France likely remains weaker, as we now have 3 major players within the Kingdom (England-Normandy, Burgundy, Aquitane), neither one of which is powerful enough alone to mount a bid for the crown, each of which has ambitions within and beyond France, but which would likely ally to prevent their rights being reduced. This could lead to a France with something more in common with the eastern HRE (which unlike the west consisted of 4-5 relatively strong states (Austria, Bavaria, Bohemia, Brandenburg, Saxony) and a handful of minor ones), and we could see France eventually splintering.
 
Alex Richards said:
I'd argue that this makes a Hundred Years Analogue very unlikely, chiefly because the English don't have the position of ruling half of France themselves.
Conflicts between England and France could still arise however: the English would held Normandy & Anjou. That's a good bit of North-western France and, if the French King wants to extend his domain westwards, he will have to wage war on England or to use royal marriages.

Alex Richards said:
On the other hand, the position of King of France likely remains weaker, as we now have 3 major players within the Kingdom (England-Normandy, Burgundy, Aquitane), neither one of which is powerful enough alone to mount a bid for the crown, each of which has ambitions within and beyond France, but which would likely ally to prevent their rights being reduced.
You forgot Blois-Champagne among the major players: they held a great number of fiefs that encircled the Royal Dosmaine. This simple reason makes them able to put pressure on the French King if they wish. Furthermore, OTL, the family was very influential at court:

  • Henri I of Champagne was married to Marie, eldest daughter of Louis VII and Eleanor of Aquitaine. Had Louis VII left no male heirs, Henri of Champagne could have made a pretty good claim to the French throne for his son.
  • His younger brother, Theobald V of Blois, was married to Alix, second daughter of Louis VII and Eleanor of Aquitaine.
  • Another brother was William White-Hands, the Archbishop of Reims, the one which crowns the King of France.
  • And lastly, their sister Adela eventually became the third queen of Louis VII.
Alex Richards said:
This could lead to a France with something more in common with the eastern HRE (which unlike the west consisted of 4-5 relatively strong states (Austria, Bavaria, Bohemia, Brandenburg, Saxony) and a handful of minor ones), and we could see France eventually splintering.
In this scenario, the strongest French noble would be:

  • The King of England, Duke of Normandy, Count of Anjou, Maine & Tourraine
  • The Duke of Aquitaine & Count of Poitiers
  • The Count of Toulouse (strong power in the South)
  • The Count/Duke of Britanny (considered a French fief by contemporaries even if pretty independent)
  • The Duke of Burgundy
  • The Count of Blois
  • The Count of Champagne
  • The Count of Flanders (strong power in the North)
As for France splintering, it will depend on several factors. Wether or not the King of France will be able to maintain his authority is one: we still have the possibility of an ATL Philip Augustus showing up. With great political skills, the French King could assert his own authority over the rest of his lords.

The ambition of the Vassals and their relations with the King of France will also play out. Flanders is the only one with ambitions to become an independent principality: the others have not yet such ambition.

Britanny and Toulouse are pretty far from the crown and are fine with having the French King as overlord as long as he doesn't bother them. Burgundy is pretty strong but it doesn't have yet the ambition of forming its own kingdom by the time of the POD: it probably wants to get more lands, but independence is not in the picture currently. Blois and Champagne probably have their eyes on the crown: they would likely do everything they can to get it and they will wish to keep their influence, and becoming independent is not a good solution to do so.

Henry II of England is a powerful lord, but he will probably wish to split his inheritance like he wanted to do OTL: so past his reign, unless everything passes to one son like OTL, the power of England-Normandy-Anjou could disappear quickly. As for Aquitaine, it will depend on how the marriage between Eleanor and Louis VII turns out ITTL: therie is the possibility of Aquitaine remaining a good ally of the French King for a few generations.
 
Just a few things to keep in mind:

If *William XI survives, there is a possibility that his mother, Aenor of Châtellerault, may as well. In OTL, both died around the same time at Talmont, most likely from the same illness, which is generally believed to have been consumption. Assuming that the duchess lives, this will have important consequences, namely that, if William X still dies on his pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela as in OTL, it is almost certain that she will be named regent in his will (there being previous precedent for this in Aquitaine).

Aquitaine is going to be far more focused on the south without Angevin domination ITTL, which means closer alliances with Navarre and Aragon, with whom it shared many historical ties. This also means the dukes will continue to provide assistance during the Reconquista, as well as possibly serve as allies of the other Iberian kings against Castile.

More importantly, the immediate foreign policy goal of the House of Poitiers will be to regain possession of the County of Toulouse. If they achieve this (a very real possibility), the Dukes of Aquitaine will essentially rule half of the French realm. It is only a matter of time before *William XI or one of his heirs then starts to entertain royal ambitions. This could either be through gaining an existing crown (perhaps Navarre or Aragon through dynastic means), or, through securing the revival of the old Carolingian Kingdom of Aquitaine (a title last held by *William XI's direct ancestor, Ranulph II in 888). The latter option would require the cooperation of either the King of France or the Pope.
 
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