Long Jump
Assuming Germany pulled off a successful Long Jump we have a different political situation going into 1944.
The U.S.A. -- Henry Wallace becomes president for the duration of FDR's third term. He takes a more concillatory tone toward the Soviets at the end of the war. It's even possible that the Soviets get to keep Austria and most of Germany as their prize. Wallace also becomes a one term president. The Democratic party chooses someone who is more left of center or conservative then Wallace. The Republicans field Dewey. Who the Democrats choose to run instead of Wallace in 1944 and whether that someone would be able to beat Dewey I leave to further speculation on this thread.
Great Britain -- Churchill's death is a major morale blow to the British, but Churchill goes down in history as a martyr for his nation and is considered a hero on the equal with Nelson and other famous British heroes. Not being familiar with British politics I am reluctant to speculate on who might take Churchill's place.
The Soviet Union -- Stalin's death causes something close to civil war to break out in the Kremlin. A provisional council takes over temporary power after Stalin's death but for the next year or two coups, countercoups, and "mysterious" deaths plague the council as members jockey one another for power. Again, even though Beria has a very powerful hand here it is uncertain he would be the ultimate winner. The Cold War may be better or worse depending on who is the ultimate winner here. Again others on this thread may know more about this then I do.
Finally, one military note, in the wake of a crime this heinous I see some changes in the war. First, Bomber Harris, is given a blank check to do what he wants in Germany. It will be open season on every German city from this point on and Dresden will be only one of the German cities to get the "Harris treatment." Secondly, it is likely that Allied intelligence would develop and implement to kill the Nazi hierarchy, especially Hitler in retaliation. There may even be a partnership developed between Allied intelligence and the Valkyrie plotters, but no guarantees given afterward to what happens to Germany. Finally, any Nazi leader that falls into Allies hands is likely to suffer a "mysterious" accident after they are captured. The Allies might be of a mind that "hanging is too good for those $%%! after a crime like this and simply have them shot once they are captured.
Geon