What are the implications of non-Soviet direct interference in both of these events and I will throw in no murders at the workers' demonstrations in the GDR in the 50s also! Can we have Dubcez's 'Communism With A Human Face?
What are the implications of non-Soviet direct interference in both of these events and I will throw in no murders at the workers' demonstrations in the GDR in the 50s also! Can we have Dubcez's 'Communism With A Human Face?
A possibility I've always wondered about is whether Tito might intervene against the Soviets.
A possibility I've always wondered about is whether Tito might intervene against the Soviets.
On top of Soviet hesitancy, change the timing of the Suez Crisis. If the west isn't so worried about Soviet intervention in Egypt they'll be more willing to assist the Hungarians. I wouldn't expect that help to amount to much in most cases, but almost by definition it would be greater than in OTL.
The Suez Crisis gave the Soviets the cover they needed to stomp the Hungarians--troop movements could be disguised as "responses to Suez," the Soviet soldiers were told they were being shipped to Egypt, etc.
No Suez Crisis and things will get trickier for the Soviets.
That said, let's presuppose no Suez Crisis. The West isn't going to go to war over Hungary, but what will it do instead? Giving the USSR the diplomatic equivalent of a broken nose and black eye is a given, but that alone probably wouldn't stop Moscow from ordering its invasion.
Covert arms shipments, perhaps?
I'm sure there's a lot of captured German gear that just happened to be leftover from the war that the Hungarian insurgents just happened to get.
(Wink, wink.)
The West might try to bluff the Soviets or suggest some kind of arrangement where Hungary is allowed out of the Pact but isn't allowed a military, so it isn't threatening to the Soviets, and is neutral like Austria.
(Assuming the Warsaw Pact was really about establishing a buffer rather than ideological expansionism or Russian-imperialism-in-different clothing, they shouldn't have a problem with that.)