Anchises
Banned
I have discovered this great forum recently. After reading a few of the great timelines created here I decided to start my own timeline at some point in the future (despite my insufficient english).
My favorite period of history is the Cold War and I really like the idea of creating "my" Cold War.
I decided to use the preparations for the Bay of Pigs as POD. In OTL the whole operation was a disaster. Personally I tend to follow the interpretation that the CIA tried to lure the Kennedy Adminisration into a trap. The whole plan was supposed to fail so that Kennedy was forced to launch a conventional invasion of Cuba.
Interestingly some close advisors had strong objections. Historically they never talked about their concerns. My POD starts with them actually voicing their concerns. This leads to a thorough review of the plan that reveals the flaws to Kennedy.
My knowledge about the Cold War is solid but I am not a Kennedy expert so take my thoughts with a grain of salt:
-This serves as an early lesson for Kennedy to not "blindly" trust the intelligence agencies or the military. OTL he learned that after the Bay of Pigs operation turned into an embarassing disaster.
-Kennedy was a fierce anti-communist and promised determined action against Castro. So I think its reasonable to assume that the plan wouldn't have been scrapped altogether.
So now I have room to come up with a "Bay of Pigs" plan that might actually work. My impression is that a popular insurrection/guerilla campaign against Castros regime won't work. Cubas population supported him for the most part.
The Brigade 2506 was far to small to pull of a successful invasion without US intervention.
So there are essentially 2 ways for the anti-Castro forces to win. A substantial build up of the Brigade 2506 turning it into a force capable of defeating the Cuban military or a US invasion.
I don't know if Kennedy would have allowed a US invasion of Cuba under this circumstances. He seemed very interested in plausible deniability of US involvment OTL. I would use a US invasion in my timeline if its within Kennedys character to allow it. Maybe someone with more expertise could provide me with some insights into Kennedy's character/beliefs.
A build up of the Brigade 2506 is tricky aswell. The Soviets and the Cubans were aware of the small force OTL.
So if the USA actually attempts to create a force strong enough to defeat the FAR conventionally plausible deniability is out of the question.
Also I am not sure about the size of the exile Cuban community but I doubt it could provide enough recruits. Mercenaries or international anti-communist volunteers are probably needed.
On top of that I assume that a large scale naval invasion would require substantial US-Navy support. The same is true for the airforce probably.
I am leaning towards the following scenario:
The USA delays the Bay of Pigs operation and instead starts a large scale build up of the Brigade 2506 into a strong force of anti Communists from around the globe (ironically Francos Spain could provide recruits for this "International Brigades").
These forces are successful in overthrowing Castro due to better equipment and substantial naval and air support from the USA.
Casualties are much higher than expected due to the determined resistance of the Cuban military though. The weakened force isn't able to handle the unfolding guerilla war that the pro-Castro forces start with heavy support from the population.
The USA is forced to send troops to stabilize the new regime and gets a taste of asymetrical warfare much sooner... (in a smaller and more controlled way than in Vietnam though).
Now I have the following questions:
a) Is a military Invasion or my scenario within the suspension of disbelief for a Kennedy adminstration? Or do I need another more hawkish president ?
b) I assume that the Soviets would know about the US plans just like they did OTL. How do I prevent an earlier Cuban Missile Crisis where the Soviets send troops and nuclear weapons to protect Cuba? Or is that unlikely without a failed Bay of Pigs?
c) How many "volunteers" are needed for a successful Invasion that defeats the Castro government?
What forces would the USA use for a invasion of Cuba?
d) Would the Soviets "retaliate" with a new Berlin blockade? What other places are likely for Soviet retaliation?
I hope the Bay of Pig topic hasn't been discussed too often and my questions are interesting enough to create a good discussion.
My favorite period of history is the Cold War and I really like the idea of creating "my" Cold War.
I decided to use the preparations for the Bay of Pigs as POD. In OTL the whole operation was a disaster. Personally I tend to follow the interpretation that the CIA tried to lure the Kennedy Adminisration into a trap. The whole plan was supposed to fail so that Kennedy was forced to launch a conventional invasion of Cuba.
Interestingly some close advisors had strong objections. Historically they never talked about their concerns. My POD starts with them actually voicing their concerns. This leads to a thorough review of the plan that reveals the flaws to Kennedy.
My knowledge about the Cold War is solid but I am not a Kennedy expert so take my thoughts with a grain of salt:
-This serves as an early lesson for Kennedy to not "blindly" trust the intelligence agencies or the military. OTL he learned that after the Bay of Pigs operation turned into an embarassing disaster.
-Kennedy was a fierce anti-communist and promised determined action against Castro. So I think its reasonable to assume that the plan wouldn't have been scrapped altogether.
So now I have room to come up with a "Bay of Pigs" plan that might actually work. My impression is that a popular insurrection/guerilla campaign against Castros regime won't work. Cubas population supported him for the most part.
The Brigade 2506 was far to small to pull of a successful invasion without US intervention.
So there are essentially 2 ways for the anti-Castro forces to win. A substantial build up of the Brigade 2506 turning it into a force capable of defeating the Cuban military or a US invasion.
I don't know if Kennedy would have allowed a US invasion of Cuba under this circumstances. He seemed very interested in plausible deniability of US involvment OTL. I would use a US invasion in my timeline if its within Kennedys character to allow it. Maybe someone with more expertise could provide me with some insights into Kennedy's character/beliefs.
A build up of the Brigade 2506 is tricky aswell. The Soviets and the Cubans were aware of the small force OTL.
So if the USA actually attempts to create a force strong enough to defeat the FAR conventionally plausible deniability is out of the question.
Also I am not sure about the size of the exile Cuban community but I doubt it could provide enough recruits. Mercenaries or international anti-communist volunteers are probably needed.
On top of that I assume that a large scale naval invasion would require substantial US-Navy support. The same is true for the airforce probably.
I am leaning towards the following scenario:
The USA delays the Bay of Pigs operation and instead starts a large scale build up of the Brigade 2506 into a strong force of anti Communists from around the globe (ironically Francos Spain could provide recruits for this "International Brigades").
These forces are successful in overthrowing Castro due to better equipment and substantial naval and air support from the USA.
Casualties are much higher than expected due to the determined resistance of the Cuban military though. The weakened force isn't able to handle the unfolding guerilla war that the pro-Castro forces start with heavy support from the population.
The USA is forced to send troops to stabilize the new regime and gets a taste of asymetrical warfare much sooner... (in a smaller and more controlled way than in Vietnam though).
Now I have the following questions:
a) Is a military Invasion or my scenario within the suspension of disbelief for a Kennedy adminstration? Or do I need another more hawkish president ?
b) I assume that the Soviets would know about the US plans just like they did OTL. How do I prevent an earlier Cuban Missile Crisis where the Soviets send troops and nuclear weapons to protect Cuba? Or is that unlikely without a failed Bay of Pigs?
c) How many "volunteers" are needed for a successful Invasion that defeats the Castro government?
What forces would the USA use for a invasion of Cuba?
d) Would the Soviets "retaliate" with a new Berlin blockade? What other places are likely for Soviet retaliation?
I hope the Bay of Pig topic hasn't been discussed too often and my questions are interesting enough to create a good discussion.
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