POD outline -
In 1898 Emperor Guangxu (IOTL the penultimate Chinese Emperor - Qing dynasty) met with a senior Chinese scholar, Kang Youwei, about the need for modernising and self strengthening reform (similar to the kinds seen in Japan in 1868). Together, they created a set of reforms including [taken from Wikipedia]
- Modernizing the traditional exam system
- Elimination of sinecures (positions that provide little or no work but give a salary)
- Creation of a modern education system (studying math and science instead of focusing mainly on Confucian texts, etc.)
- Change the government from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy with democracy.
- Apply principles of capitalism to strengthen the economy.
- Completely change the military buildup to strengthen the military.
- Rapidly industrialize all of China through manufacturing, commerce, and capitalism.
This was known as the 100 days reform (although the planning to create it lasted 104 days) and it was all very popular among many sections of Chinese society, since they had been humiliated in the Opium Wars (resulting in lots of European spheres of influence), the Sino-French war, and the Sino Japanese war (which was particually humiliating as China had viewed Japan as being quite backwater, small and unimportant). But in OTL, the reforms were extinguished by a coup lead by Empress Dowager Cixi along with several conservative elites. They believed that the reforms were either part of some foreign plot, or that they were just too radical too soon for China. IOTL Emperor Guangxu was dethroned and sent to live out the remainder of his days under house arrest in the forbidden city.
BUT
POD : Certain pro-democracy Chinese revolutionaries (not sure who exactly, possibly people associated with Sun Yat Sen) break the Emperor out of his house arrest, there is an uprising to put him back on the throne (supported by the Army, because they wanted to modernise also), and China becomes a democratic constitutional monarchy.
So, where does it go from there?
Well first off, the Boxer rebellion would probably still happen, but it would be quickly quelled by an army loyal to the newly enthroned Guangxu. China would attempt, and be in some measure successful, in reasserting itself over those aforementioned European intrusions into its borders.
China would then begin to industrialise and develop, and as a constitutional monarchy with the unifying power of the emperor still very much intact, it would be able to avoid large amounts of the chaos and warring that accompanied the 1910s-1940s IOTL. Consequently, they would be much better prepared to resist the Japanese when it comes to WW2, and would most definitely be a significant and effective part of the Allied efforts to resist Japanese expansion in South East Asia.
Politically, I imagine this China would move in similar directions to Britain in many ways. After all, like Britain it would be a constitutional monarchy. It would have a long history of Monarchic tradition to draw on, so it would not have the same kind of aggressive liberal dynamism that characterises liberal politics.
The Cold War would possibly end sooner. With Capitalism having such a large and developed ally (not to mention one that suffered comparatively far less than almost any other in WW2 - save the US) the Russians may be more isolated and Communism would become harder to sustain in the long term. There's no question the Chinese would want to develop their own nuclear program, what with sharing a large border with Russia. There are lots of tensions, and the Russians may well sponser proxy uprisings in places like Xianjing and Manchuria, but the government would probably manage to put a lot of these down.
Chinese would become a far more widely spoken language, China would become a major competitor for the US economically (much more so than it is now, as right now very few of its own home grown companies are making their own original products, just products designed elsewhere).
Is this believable? What do people think? Any experts on Chinese history, I would be very interested in hearing from you.