A stronghold in Europe - A von Bethmann Hollweg TL

Wasn't it Bethmann who said when he thought of war with Russia, he thanked God for the Russian revolutionaries?

Can't remember having read that. - However, it's important to keep in mind that Bethmann was russophobe, thus - IOTL - he did not strive to follow Falkenhayn's request for bartering a seperate peace with Russia (although that hardly would have worked even if he had seriously tried, as the Russians were not disposed for it - until too late...)

As it was fear of revolution that mainly drove the Tsar and his ministers to their hardline position and eventually to war, one would hardly expect Bethmann to be thankful for Russian revolutionaries.
 
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OK, I got only hold of Hobson, Rolf, Imperialism at sea, Brill Academic publishers, Inc. Boston, Leiden 2002 (which may be the English original of the book, rast proposed) and some other books not on rast's list but nonetheless interesting.

According to Hobson, the problem of a wide blockade was already known much earlier in Germany - the loudest statement concerning this problem made by Vice Admiral Galster in 1907/1908. He also pointed out, that to break a close blockade a battle fleet as Tirpitz was building would not be necessary (something also rast mentioned earlier). Tirpitz himself acknowledged this problem once. Although Hobson mentions that the maritime law would forbid a wide blockade it was accepted that such a ban would only have weight if it could be supported by neutral nations - if the enemy was too strong, then the neutral nations would not be able to do anything about that. So most of the hopes had to ly with the USA.

Hobson also illustrates all the shortcomings and the logical paradoxon of the Tirpitz plan and his "risk fleet". and that the battle fleet was not ready was not a pretext but all but true. Tirpitz said that because he knew that the fleet could not fight a decisive battle in 1911 up until 1916 (and that that would work out then is also more a fallacy of tirpitz than anything else). He called that the "danger zone" the fleet must go through until it is strong enough to face the British navy.

Similar points I found in Kennedy, Paul M., Maritime Strategieprobleme der deutsch-englischen Flottenrivalität, in Schottelius/Deist, Marine und Marinepolitik im kaiserlichen Deutschland 1871 - 1914, Düsseldorf 1972 who gives the years 1908/1909 as the years where a wide blockade was foreseen by the German admiralty, although this was taken back again in 1912 (p. 200). He also points out the absurdity of Tirpitz' plan.

According to Salewski, Michael, Tirpitz, Göttingen 1979, p. 91 the British admiralty switched to a wide blockade as early as in 1911.

According to Hamilton/Herwig, War planning in 1914, Cambridge 2010, the admiralty was heavily criticised for the plans om a close blockade and Wilson lost his job over that.

So I think that I will leave the realisation of the problems a wide blockade will bring in there as well as the point that the battle fleet was not able to decisively help against the British fleet. although Tirpitz and his followers ignored some of these problems there is enough information out there to get weary of these facts as well as Heeringens admittance to these facts in 1912.

On another point: according to Foley, German strategy and the path to Verdun, Cambridge 2005, pp. 63 ff., the General Staff was political weakened and had a difficult time to develop a grand strategy for war within the splintered government of the German reich. Indeed something similar said Stein (as cited in chapter 4). According to both authors there was no institution which ever tried to coordinate defense policies and come to a unified strategy. This is something which Bethmann will try to do in TTL. he may only succeed partially but I see a chance in a kind of "bargain-policy".

I will work these sources into the revised edition of chapter 4 and clear some things up.

Kind regards,
G.
 
On another point: according to Foley, German strategy and the path to Verdun, Cambridge 2005, pp. 63 ff., the General Staff was political weakened and had a difficult time to develop a grand strategy for war within the splintered government of the German reich. Indeed something similar said Stein (as cited in chapter 4). According to both authors there was no institution which ever tried to coordinate defense policies and come to a unified strategy. This is something which Bethmann will try to do in TTL. he may only succeed partially but I see a chance in a kind of "bargain-policy".

I'd be careful about believing Foley, this is not well researched and rather biased. A unified strategy was never thought to be necessary, this was quite in accordance with contemporary thinking. - All those 'famous' adjustments were made in wartime, everywhere. No nation entered the fray with a comprehensive plan.
 
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I'd be careful about believing Foley, this is not well researched and rather biased. A unified strategy was never thought to be necessary, this was quite in accordance to contemparary thinking. - All those 'famous' adjustments were made in wartime, everywhere. No nation entered the fray with a comprehensive plan.

OK, thanks for the warning! I will then take this into consideration.

Kind regards,
G.
 
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]And here is the revised edition of chapter 4. Parts are cleared up or rewritten and a new paragraph included. Additional sources and footnotes were added to address all grievances rast put forth. Most important difference: I decided that Tirpitz resignation was not necessary to stop the naval law of 1912 since in this TL Tirpitz would never press for it and the shift in priorities to the army[/FONT] was already undergoing. This will only be cemented by the developments outlined herein and pave the way for the naval agreement.
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[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Chapter 4: The Taming of the s[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]ea lions[/FONT]

kubinsealion02.jpg


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Alfred Kubin, The power (Die Macht) 1903, page 6 (Blatt 6) of the Hans-von-Weber Mappe[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Chancellor, Kaiser, Reichstag and the military[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]A fight for control[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif][…] The Fez Crisis is widely attributed a high significance in affecting the diplomatic landscape of pre-war Europe, often called the turning point of German-British relations. There has been an endless stream of studies concentrating only on the obvious, the impact on foreign affairs. But there is perhaps a dimension of even bigger importance to the Fez Crisis: its subtle but none the less huge impact on domestic German policy. After Eisendecher delivered his sharp protest note to France and Spain started occupying northern ports in Morocco tensions were rising. As one German foreign office official suggested to send a gunboat to Agadir war became a real option. Although Eisendecher and Bethmann refused to take military action and Eisendecher was rather successful in the following diplomatic exchange turning the British to a neutral stance, Bethmann was concerned with Germany’s military situation after war seemed no longer impossible.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]So Bethmann invited the military leadership to a conference to discuss Germany’s defensive options. The famous War Council met secretly in Bethmann's manor of Hohemfinow on June 3[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]rd[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] 1911. The participants included all of the important decision makers: from the civilian government Bethmann and Eisendecher and from the military side the Prussian minister of war Josias von Heeringen, his brother [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]August von Heeringen, who was Chief of Staff of the Naval High Command, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]the head of the German Imperial Naval office Admiral Tirpitz, Chief of the Naval Cabinet Georg Alexander von Müller, Chief of Staff Helmuth von Moltke the Younger and the Chief of the Military Cabinet Moriz von Lyncker. Most notably the Kaiser was not invited. Bethmann explained to the assembly that the Kaiser should not waste his precious time on what were preliminary talks considering the options at hand. The aim of this meeting should be to develop a sound strategy which then could be presented to the emperor. Main subject of the discussion were the German war plans in case the Fez Crisis grew hot. As Bethmann learned there existed two plans, Moltke's Plan West and Plan East, but only the first was considered to be a viable option for a short victory. The Plan West was based on earlier plans developed by then Chief of Staff Alfred von Schlieffen, which envisioned a deep strike through Belgium into France, bypassing the heavily enforced eastern border forts. In the east a small contingent should use Russia’s inability to mobilise fast and fight a defensive action until France would be defeated quickly.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]1[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] The shortcomings of this plan became rapidly aware to Bethmann and Eisendecher. First of all, marching through Belgium required either a right to military passage or the violation of Belgium’s neutrality. The probability of Belgium allowing free passage was considered to be practically nil by Eisendecher. And the chief diplomat emphasized that in case of an invasion of Belgium the entry of Britain into the war on the side of the entente would be a certainty. Secondly Moltke had to admit that his plan was everything else than a sure way to victory. The problems were manifold: It would require more divisions than the German army was fielding right now.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]2[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] And Moltke concurred that any unforeseen stalling of the advancing armies would cause the plan to break down and end up in a prolonged war which would be disastrous with a belligerent Britain blockading Germany successfully. Actually the 3[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]rd[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] department of the Chief of Staff had presented a study based on information gathered by the secret service and French military publications in May 1910 which had shown that French counter measures to the Moltke Plan West would have most certainly stopped an even initially successful advance and would have led to failure of its most important aim: a quick victory in France.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]3[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Moltke explained further that the amount of ammunition stored now would only suffice to the 40[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] day of mobilisation. Finally Moltke admitted to the grim conclusions he already had come by in January 1905[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]4[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], that any war fought in the future will become a “Volkskrieg”, a war of the people, and be neither short nor victorious since even the winner of such a war would be utterly exhausted.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]5[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Although there were differences concerning the estimated length of a war in the end the consensus of most of the assembled military advisers was quiet depressing since most of them considered a prolonged war even with an attack through Belgium the most probable outcome.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]6[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Which led to the next important question: Would the Imperial Navy be able to break a British blockade? Tirpitz was emphatic about the ability to win a decisive battle against the Grand Fleet as soon as the Kiel Canal and the fortification of Helgoland were ready in 1914 but had to concede that for now the fleet was not in a position to gain the upper hand.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]7[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Müller's assessment was essentially the same.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]8[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] August von Heeringen gave a similar opinion in his judgement saying that the fleet had not the ability to engage the Grand Fleet in a decisive battle.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]9[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Moltke on the other hand was even more sceptical. The strength relations had never reached the “2:3 standard” which would have been necessary for the German Navy to be even considered a risk.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]10[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Would Germany go to war with the British Empire now, a blockade could be devastating in the long run. Moltke assumed that even in two years from then the Imperial Navy would not be ready for war.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]11[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] It was clear that the war had to be either short or with at least a neutral British Empire. Since the expansion of the army had been neglected in favour of the navy the divisions for a quick victory in the west were [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]missing even if one would consider such a quick victory possible.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] As [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]August von Heeringen pointed out: “What an ironic constellation that the expansion of the fleet would now be the hindrance to victory.” It was also von Heeringen who acknowledged that should the British Empire evade a decisive battle and establish a far blockade the Imperial Navy would be rather useless.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]12[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] The consequences of these insights everybody had gained in the long discussions were astonishingly different and at times even paradoxical considering that the assessments of Germany's defensive position were rather similar. Moltke still sought the saving of Germany in a short war against France, the earlier the better, although he was not convinced that Germany could stay victorious in such a war. Tirpitz clung to his idea of a High Seas Fleet as a deterrent against a British blockade in some undefined future, although his deterrence theory made a close blockade ever more unlikely.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]13[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] In the end it was blatantly obvious at least for Bethmann and Eisendecher that any war would be rather long than short and that any such war with Britain as an enemy now and in the near future would end with a ruinous defeat for the German Empire.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]14[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]As a consequence Bethmann invited Moltke, Lyncker, Josias von Heeringen and the secretary of finance Adolf Wehrmut two days later again into his home. In a lengthy discussion Bethmann made it clear that the established war plans could not cope with reality and that especially Moltke's Plan West would interfere with his and Eisendecher's envisioned foreign policy towards Britain. So Bethmann supported by Wehrmut for all different reasons[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]15[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] offered Moltke a bargain as he later telegraphed to Eisendecher. If Moltke would join Bethmann to topple Tirpitz and his fleet plans Bethmann would support Moltke for a huge enlargement of the army budget. But Bethmann wanted something else: That Moltke would concentrate on his alternate plan which [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]would not rely on the invasion of a neutral country. Although Moltke resisted the suggestion first, Bethmann insisted that Moltke had to take diplomatic constraints into account. Bethmann added that an offensive in the east might even need more men and therefore would make it much easier to get the budgetary rise. Finally Moltke agreed to focus on the alternate Plan East and to support Bethmann against Tirpitz. Lyncker was already very open to Bethmanns suggestions,[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]16[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] and Josias von Heeringen always had accepted the primacy of the civil government and the chancellor.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]17[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Bethmann got a preliminary draft of the revised Plan East one month later. It existed in two variants, one with France as the aggressor and Russia’s position uncertain, the second with Russia as the aggressor and France’s position not declared. Both plans had a strong defensive line of forts at the western and eastern borders in common and both needed a lot of additional troops and money. Considering that the last army law passed in February 1911 saw only an almost negligible increase in troops and even a lower yearly budget than the years before[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]18[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] the importance of a revision of that law would be immediately clear. Furthermore the finances of the German Reich were in a bad condition. Any budgetary rise for the army would have to be subtracted from other armaments. Bethmann wanted to use this against the naval building program.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]19[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] It was then that Bethmann and Moltke confronted the Kaiser with the findings of the War Council and with Moltke's alternate plan. Their suggestion was simple. The Kaiser should exercise his authority and stop Tirpitz from introducing further naval laws. Eisendecher should receive a free hand to strike a bargain with the British Empire to reach a naval détente. It was not an easy task. But Wehrmut, not afraid of speaking his opinion as well as Lyncker, who had a great deal of influence on the emperor, weighed in, as well as Eisendecher and Josias von Heeringen. In addition to that Werner von Rheinbaben, since January 1911 naval attaché to Britain, reported that the British fleet building program will match the German pace and there was no indication that this would change in the foreseeable future.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]20[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Furthermore public as well as parliamentary opinion was increasingly in favour of a serious army expansion since the Bosnian crisis in 1908 had brought back the possibility of a continental war to the public mind.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]21[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] At last the negotiations with France in the Fez Crisis were coming to a for Germany very beneficial end as well as simultaneously furthering rapprochement with France and Britain which gave Eisendecher and Bethmann much needed clout.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]22[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]After the almost peaceful resolution of the Fez crisis Tirpitz saw only small chances for a new naval law to gain public and parliamentary support, although the Navy League tried to push for faster battlecruiser building.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]23[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Therefore Tirpitz gave grudgingly support to Moltke's suggestion of a new greatly expanded army bill for 1912. The emperor permitted the proposition of an army law in early September 1911. But Tirpitz stood still opposed to any reduction in the naval building pace, whereas Bethmann, Wehrmut and Eisendecher wanted to use the dwindling support for the navy to cut expenditure there and to open up a wider range of possibilities in upcoming negotiations with Britain. Metternich's reports which were corroborated by Rheinbaben gave the impression that chances for a naval détente were never better than now. Weeks of lengthy discussions and heavy fights followed. Tirpitz lost some ground due to the fact that since the war council Müller had been convinced that indeed a naval détente would be desirable and naval construction should not be accelerated.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]24[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Even more damaging was Holtzendorff's view that the focus should move to readiness than to building ever more ships which lacked able personal to command and sail them.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]25[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Then there were the logical arguments which showed the paradoxical circular logic of Tipitz' theories and the danger of further deterioration of the German-British relations. In the end it was the combined pressure of perhaps the only concerted effort of Imperial government and military officials that let the emperor cave in. Wilhelm II. later wrote into his diary on January 31[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]st[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], 1912: “I had almost forgotten why I decided that a cruiser fleet was in the best interests of the German Empire and its colonies.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]26[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]” With a free hand for Eisendecher in further negotiations with Britain, the way was paved for a naval agreement.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Although Tirpitz offered his resignation, the emperor would not have it. Tirpitz remained in office, but his power had waned and would never regain its decade long hold on naval policies. The first confrontation with the military ended in favour of the civilian leadership. […][/FONT]




[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]OTL cited sources:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Afflerbach, Holger, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Kaiser Wilhelm II. als Oberster Kriegsherr im Ersten Weltkrieg[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], R. Oldenbourg Verlag München 2005.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Burchardt[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Lothar, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Friedenswirtschaft und Kriegsvorsorge[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Harald Boldt Verlag Boppard am Rhein 1968.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Cecil, Lamar, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Wilhelm II. – Vol. 2 – Emperor and exile, 1900 – 1941[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], The University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill and London 1996.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Fischer, Jörg-Uwe, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Admiral des Kaisers[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Verlag Peter Lang Frankfurt am Main 1992.[/FONT]


Förster, Stig, Der deutsche Generalstab und die Illusionen des kurzen Krieges, 1871 – 1914, Metakritik eines Mythos, in: Burkhardt/Becker/Förster/Kronenbitter, Lange und kurze Wege in den Ersten Weltkrieg, pp. 115 – 158, Verlag Ernst Vögel München 1996.


Giessler, Klaus-Volker, Die Institution des Marineattachés im Kaiserreich, Harald Boldt Verlag Boppard am Rhein, 1976.


Guth, Ekkehart P., Lyncker, Moriz Freiherr von,in: Neue Deutsche Biographie, Vol. 15, Duncker & Humblodt Berlin 1987.


Hobson, Rolf, Imperialism at sea, Brill Academic publishers, Inc. Boston, Leiden 2002.


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Holborn, Hajo, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Deutsche Geschichte in der Neuzeit, Vol. 3 – Das Zeitalter des Imperialismus (1871 bis 1945)[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], R. Oldenbourg München und Wien 1971.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Lambert, Nicholas A., [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Sir John Fisher's Naval Revolution[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], University of South Carolina 1999.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Mi[/FONT]chaelis, William, Tirpitz' strategisches Wirken vor und während des Weltkrieges., in: Werner Rahn (Editor): Deutsche Marinen im Wandel. Vom Symbol nationaler Einheit zum Instrument internationaler Sicherheit. Oldenbourg, München 2005
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Ritter, Gerhard, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Staatskunst und Kriegshandwerk – Die Hauptmächte Europas und das wilhelminische Reich (1890 – 1914)[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], R. Oldenbourg Verlag München 1973.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Röhl[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], John, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Wilhelm II.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Vol. 2, pp. 1118, 1128 ff.[/FONT][/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Scheck, Raffael, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Alfred von Tirpitz and German right-wing politics, 1914-1930[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Humanities Press Atlantic Highlands New Jersey 1998.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Stein, Oliver, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Die deutsche Heeresrüstungspolitik 1890 – 1914[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Ferdinand Schöningh Paderborn 2007.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Stevenson, David, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Armaments and the Coming of War in Europe[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], Clarendon Press Oxford 1996.


_____________________________________________________
[/FONT] 1 This is in a gist what in OTL became known as the “Schlieffen plan”.

2 As in OTL Moltke had written to the secretary of war, see Förster, Der deutsche Generalstab und die Illusionen des kurzen Krieges, 1871 – 1914, Metakritik eines Mythos, in Burkhardt/Becker/Förster/Kronenbitter, Lange und kurze Wege in den Ersten Weltkrieg, pp. 115 – 158, pp. 14g.

3 As in OTL, see Förster, ibid., p. 145 f.

4 As in OTL, see Förster, ibid., p. 144.

5 „Es wird ein Volkskrieg werden, der nicht mit einer entscheidenden Schlacht abzumachen sein wird, sondern ein langes, mühevolles Ringen mit einem Land sein wird, das sich nicht eher überwunden geben wird, als bis seine ganze Volkskraft gebrochen ist, und der auch unser Volk, selbst wenn wir Sieger sein sollten, bis aufs äußerste erschöpfen wird.“ Moltke, in January 1905, see Förster, ibid., p. 144.
Translation by me: „It will be a war of the people, which will not be brought to an end by one decisive battle, but will become a long, agonizing struggle with a nation, that will not acknowledge defeat until all of its people's power is broken, and which will leave our own people utterly exhausted even if we can stay victorious.”

6 In OTL Tirpitz informed the secretary of the interior as early as in 1907 that Germany should prepare for a long war, meaning at least 18 months, see Förster, ibid., p. 147; Burchardt, Friedenswirtschaft und Kriegsvorsorge, pp. 19 f. For Moltkes insights that a long war is the probable outcome of any war in the future see the citations above. Lyncker is difficult to predict, but he was also described as a serious and calm man with rather pessimistic views on the ability of the German army to win a two front war, since he was able to give a rational analysis of the rather bad situation in the war in OTL, see Guth, Lyncker, Moriz Freiherr von, in: Neue Deutsche Biographie, Vol. 15, p. 587; Afflerbach, [FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Kaiser Wilhelm II. als Oberster Kriegsherr im Ersten Weltkrieg, pp. 74 ff. [/FONT]Josias von Heeringen's position is also not so easy to predict: there is a small marginalia in one of Moltkes memorandums which indicated he thought of the war in 1870/71 as a lengthy war and feared another war against France might be of similar or greater length, see Burchardt, Friedenswirtschaft und Kriegsvorsorge, p. 24, note 54; Stein, Die deutsche Heeresrüstungspolitik 1890 – 1914, p. 102. But Stein also mentions that the ministry of war based its deliberations on a short war, see Stein, ibd., pp. 102 ff; Burchardt, ibd. p. 17 f. Other military experts – not present in this ATL war council – as von der Goltz, von Blume and von Caprivi as well as the late Moltke the Elder had also thought of the next war as a prolonged, inexorable and horrible war, see Stein, ibd., pp. 103 ff.; Burchardt, ibd., pp. 21 ff.

7As in OTL, see Michaelis, Tirpitz' strategisches Wirken vor und während des Weltkrieges., in: Werner Rahn (Editor): Deutsche Marinen im Wandel. Vom Symbol nationaler Einheit zum Instrument internationaler Sicherheit. Oldenbourg, München 2005, pp. 397 – 426, p. 412.

8 As he admitted both towards the emperor and the chancellor in OTL in September 1911, see Fischer, Admiral des Kaisers, pp. 115 f.

9 As in OTL, see Michaelis, ibd., p. 412.

10 Although British politicians seemed to be content with a “2:3 standard” in spring 1911 this referred solely to those dreadnoughts to be built until 1914, neither to other dreadnoughts built later on nor to the fleet as a whole. In OTL Widenmann was responsible for the misrepresentation of these facts, see Ritter, Staatskunst und Kriegshandwerk, Vol. 2, pp. 213 ff. and note 99 to chapter 8 (p. 369). Since Widenmann was no longer naval attaché after January 1911 any misrepresentation of these facts will not happen in this TL. Rheinbaben will rather give an accurate description of the situation which will show the German inability to overcome the British naval armament even in the long run.

11 As he pointed out in OTL on the War Council 12/8/1912. See the entry from the diary of Georg Alexander von Müller (December 8, 1912). Bundesarchiv-Militärarchiv [BArch N 159/4 Fol. 169-171]. http://germanhistorydocs.ghi-dc.org/sub_document.cfm?document_id=799.

12 As he pointed out in OTL on the War Council 12/8/1912. See Michaelis, ibd., p. 412. This problem was at least known in OTL and therefore this TL since 1907 when Vice Admiral Karl Galster published a pamphlet outlining these problems of the naval policy campaigning for a navy of cruisers and U-boats, see Hobson, Imperialism at sea, pp. 261 ff., 271. The danger of a wide blockade was also seen by many others, including Tirpitz see Hobson, ibd., pp. 270 f. The British had dismissed a close blockade at the same time, see Lambert, Sir John Fisher's Naval Revolution, pp. 205 ff. In this TL the anachronistic strategy of Admiral Wilson will never be put in the open, since the OTL war scare of August 1911 will not happen.

13 In regard to this paradox in OTL, see Hobson, ibd., pp. 270 f.

14 While in OTL Bethmann was content with whatever the military considered necessary because he thought of himself not as a military expert, see Stein, ibd., p. 331, although his assessment of a coming war as a horrible catastrophe for all nations involved was spot on, see Stein, ibd., pp. 328 ff. In this TL Bethmann has gathered enough confidence to rely on his own and rather obvious conclusions that if any war will be probably long and horrible British entry had to be avoided at all costs.

15 As in OTL, see Stevenson, Armaments and the Coming of War in Europe, p. 178.

16 Although Lyncker was a follower of the “inevitable-war-thesis” and pledged on several occasions for a pre-emptive strike Lyncker was also described as a calm and rational man who was critical of the chances of the German army to win a war and later criticised the dictatorial 3rd OHL and their strategy, see Guth, ibd., Vol. 15, p. 587; Afflerbach, [FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Kaiser Wilhelm II. als Oberster Kriegsherr im Ersten Weltkrieg, pp. 74 ff. Furthermore Lyncker accepted the primacy of politics over the military, see [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Afflerbach[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], ibid., pp. 74, 87 ff.[/FONT]

17 Josias von Heeringen did so in OTL as well, see Stein, ibd., pp. 269, 296 ff.

18 As in OTL, see Stein, ibd., pp. 268 ff.

19 As in OTL, see Stein, ibd., pp. 291 ff.

20 In contrast to OTL where Widenmann gave a serious misrepresentation of the facts, especially reporting falsely that the British had been given up their two-power-standard due to the fast pace of the German naval program and would be willing to accept further German armament, see Ritter, ibd., pp. 213 ff., [FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]216 f., and who supported all naval laws vehemently, see [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Ritter[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], ibd., pp. 232 ff.[/FONT] and note 99 to chapter 8 (p. 369). In OTL Rheinbaben supported a naval agreement strongly, see Giessler, Die Institution des Marineattachés im Kaiserreich, pp. 176 f. On Widenmann's destructive behaviour see also, Giessler, ibd., pp. 150 ff.

21 As in OTL, see Stevenson, ibd., p. 180.

22 The rapprochement and the much lower level of nationalist propaganda will also diminish the war scare slightly, so that a naval bill will be even more out of the question than it was in OTL, see Stevenson, ibd., pp. 195 f.

23 As in OTL, see Stevenson, ibd., pp. 195 f.

24 In OTL Müller was not convinced that a naval law right after the Agadir crisis would be a good idea, since he saw the weakness of the German fleet until the Kiel channel was built, see Fischer, ibd., pp. 115 f. Only Tirpitz was able to sway him later. What is even more important is the fact, that in OTL Müller supported Bethmann as chancellor especially against the 3rd OHL and accepted the constitutionally given primacy of politics over military matters, see Fischer, ibd., pp. 146, 152 ff., especially 156 ff., 164 ff., 172 ff.

25 As in OTL, see Stevenson, ibd., pp. 196, 200.


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]26 In OTL the emperor was unsure which naval strategy he should follow. He seemed to favour cruisers before battleships at first, but was later swayed by Tirpitz. See Scheck, Alfred von Tirpitz and German right-wing politics, 1914-1930, p. 2; Stein, ibd., p. 210; Röhl, Wilhelm II., Vol. 2, pp. 1118, 1128 ff.[/FONT]​
 
Well, now [FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Eisendecher at least has a chance to succeed. Good alterations, since IMO Tirpitz is still too important to be completely sidelined.

But if his position is now more seremonial and political rather than real command in military terms, it has several interesting implications within the German naval command. In OTL Wilhem Büchsel proposed the creation of Admiralty Staff analogous to the General Staff of the Army, both of which could work closely together, but the only result was Büchsel's dismissal as the Chief ot the Admiralty Staff because Tirpitz opposed the plan. Tirpitz was also active in blocking Fischel's plan (initiated by Levetzow) to combine the Admiralty Staff with the fleet command.

And to really show how he viewed things, Tirpitz also blocked a proposal to assign one-half of the officers at the Naval Academy to the Admiralty Staff, "fearing that this would unnecessarily raise their importance in the eyes of the yonger executive officers." :rolleyes:

The old system where State Secretary of the Naval Office, the Chief of the Naval Cabinet, the Chief of the High Sea Fleet and the chief of the Cruiser Squadron and the commanders of naval stations and the captains of ships stationed abroad all answered directly to Kaiser is a certain repice for interdepartment rivalry, so it remains seen whether the reform-minded naval officers can now change things to any direction. No doubt Wilhelm II will still want to run the show, but the internal command structure below him would benefit from nearly any kind of reform since the current system is a mess.
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Thanks for your input! I agree that the naval command was a mess. But I fear that Tirpitz - although he lost influence - still wields enough power to be a pain in the a** if it comes to further reforms. I have to research these issues more deeply to see which consequences - besides Eisendecher having a free hand to negotiate a naval agreement - will come from this.nThanks for the ideas! Maybe Tirpitz can be sidelined in some aspects now for at least a certain degree.

Next update will concentrate on the naval agreement and the political understanding between Britain and Germany. There will also be stuff on the parliament and the 1912 Reichstag elections since these treaties will have to be ratfiied by the parliament which might be a problem.

Kind regards,
G.
 
Mh, while Moltle certainly was aware of the severe flaws in his strategy, admitting those to a 'civilian' certainly streches propability. He was struggling with the realisation that a quick victory wasn't in Germany's cards - but he also firmly believed that 'war now' was far better than 'war later'-when Russia had built up her forces to irrrestible level. - Thus he tried to get the chancellor to agree to an early all-out war, because war was to come anyway - and it was up to Germany to mold this as positive for her as possible... - Just admitting his limitations is not something to be really expected from him.
 
Here is my question what is to be done with the increase in the army budget? Because of the Social Issues they really can't increase the army size much more than they did historic.

All I can suggest is the Germans spend the extra cash to build a fortified belt along the Franco German Border and more on railroads in the east. German mobilization plans and railroad building where closely linked. If its Drang nach Osten then the Germans need more rail lines in the east. All of these are impossible to hide from the French and Russians.

Michael
 
Mh, while Moltle certainly was aware of the severe flaws in his strategy, admitting those to a 'civilian' certainly streches propability. He was struggling with the realisation that a quick victory wasn't in Germany's cards - but he also firmly believed that 'war now' was far better than 'war later'-when Russia had built up her forces to irrrestible level. - Thus he tried to get the chancellor to agree to an early all-out war, because war was to come anyway - and it was up to Germany to mold this as positive for her as possible... - Just admitting his limitations is not something to be really expected from him.
It is true that Moltke always supported war - the sooner the better. He most probably would have also tried to push Bethmann to war in this TL, if the circumstances were not so different than to OTL. While in OTL the Panther before Agadir was severely escalating the crisis and heightening the war scare we have nothing like this in this TL. There is really no reason for war as long as the French play along with German demands and the British refrain from wielding threats against Germany or in this case even refrain from meddling publicly in the affair at all. Eisendecher - knowing that compensation in Morocco will seriously put the British off and will never be a realistic option against French hold of power there (something which Kiderlen also knew in OTL) - would make it publicly clear that he aims for compensation in French Congo which he will get. Hard-core nationalists will not be happy, but Kiderlen used them in OTL to advertise gains in Morocco. Eisendecher will not do that and therefore there is no perceived "defeat" in the negotiations with France. And considering that German companies were not really engaged in Morocco despite their talking about it, Eisendecher has a pretty good platform to counter nationalist arguments. Well placed propaganda of the colonial office to promote Mittelafrika will help to keep them in check. Really there is only "low level" public awareness of the possibility of war. I will come to all of these points in a later installment.

That Bethmann will hold a war council is just related to the fact that there is an ever so slightly chance of war, that he wants to be informed of all of his options and that he is a cautious but in this TL more confident character and wants to get a grasp on the whole situation just in case of another international crisis. Moltke will know that it is utterly pointless to persuade him to engage in war in such a situation. Maybe he will mention it later on, but there are enough military advisers who publicly and in front of the chancellor in OTL had warned against a war in 1911/12 and they will do so even more so in this situation. But Moltke will seize on this opportunity to put forward his schemes of army increases. In OTL he wrote a memorandum in dec 1911 to Bethmann which actually implied that his plan in the west lacked sufficient troops to succeed (see Reichsarchiv, Der Weltkrieg, Vol. 1, 1925, pp. 11 ff.). His intent was of course to gather support for more troops. He also admitted in another memorandum to serious difficulties if French or British armies were to help the Belgians, although he said that "in general one has to trust in an oustanding German right wing". That there may be a longer war he made also clear in OTL when he supported not to infringe Holland's neutrality to use it as windpipe. There would be no necessity for that if the war was to be over quickly. If this all was brought up in a direct discussion with several other military leader present and with a Bethmann who has a much more forceful and self-assured personality I found it not improbable that he will also admit to the problems that an unforeseen halt of the initial advance would bring with it. That he even found his plan without such unforeseen difficulties critical to accomplish he may not want to disclose. But would he still lie if asked directly by the chancellor - the second most important man by the constitution? I doubt that. In OTL Bethmann never challenged Moltke's planning because he thought himself to be an insufficent expert. In this TL this is different. Although I will not go so far as letting Bethmann meddle with all the plans and their details. But Bethmann will adhere to his own (OTL) idea of policy that is rapprochement with Britain first, France second and containing Russia. And the violation of neutrality of Belgium would make all these policies rather fruitless - something Bethmann also knew in OTL. That alone makes this plan invalid. The rather slim chances of success are only the icing on the cake. and in 1910 - even in 1911 - Moltke himself still thought that a neutral France was a possibility. Working on plans with this premise is nothing strange to Moltke.

As a side note: Moltke supported in OTL in 1909 a naval détente with Britain. so a bargain like the one I suggested is most likely.

Here is my question what is to be done with the increase in the army budget? Because of the Social Issues they really can't increase the army size much more than they did historic.

All I can suggest is the Germans spend the extra cash to build a fortified belt along the Franco German Border and more on railroads in the east. German mobilization plans and railroad building where closely linked. If its Drang nach Osten then the Germans need more rail lines in the east. All of these are impossible to hide from the French and Russians.

Michael
I have not decided yet what is the most probable outcome, but Bethmann, Moltke and Ludendorff supported a massive increase in army size in OTL. And why not in this?

Kind regards,
G.
 
I have not decided yet what is the most probable outcome, but Bethmann, Moltke and Ludendorff supported a massive increase in army size in OTL. And why not in this?

Moltke was ambivalent about manpower increases, it was Ludendorff that pressured him into that as head of the Mobilization Section. Even then Ludendorff was interested in artillery and munitions. Prussian Minister for War, Heeringen, was outright hostile to the idea. Wilhelm backed Heeringen and not Moltke.

The key change here is you removed the pressure point for the manpower increase, Second Moroccan Crisis. It was solved by diplomacy and without any saber rattling. What ammo is the German Defense League going to have here? There is no humiliation and cries of German weakness in the face of Entente resolve. I think a person could make a strong case that you don't even get 2nd manpower increase.

I suggest "The Kaisers Army" by Eric Dorn Brose, Chapter 7: Towards the Great War. It has lots of info on this.

Regards,
Michael
 
Moltke was ambivalent about manpower increases, it was Ludendorff that pressured him into that as head of the Mobilization Section. Even then Ludendorff was interested in artillery and munitions. Prussian Minister for War, Heeringen, was outright hostile to the idea. Wilhelm backed Heeringen and not Moltke.
I am not so sure of Moltke's ambivalence on this subject. He seemed fairly convinced of that at least according to the sources I have read. But I agree with the rest of your assessment. It was Ludendorff who was very particular about army strength.

The key change here is you removed the pressure point for the manpower increase, Second Moroccan Crisis. It was solved by diplomacy and without any saber rattling. What ammo is the German Defense League going to have here? There is no humiliation and cries of German weakness in the face of Entente resolve. I think a person could make a strong case that you don't even get 2nd manpower increase.

I suggest "The Kaisers Army" by Eric Dorn Brose, Chapter 7: Towards the Great War. It has lots of info on this.

Regards,
Michael
That is a very valid argument of yours. Indeed, to push for an army increase will not be that simple. But Bethmann wanted to battle Tirpitz to get a free hand in dealing with Great Britain on the naval issue. Therefore the army increase was his weapon. The same with Wehrmut, but for financial reasons. And Moltke supported a shift in budgetary priorities much earlier than the Moroccon crisis and was very eager to work with the chancellor together. A bargain as mentioned would let them push for such an increase none-the-less. Then there was already a shift in parliamentary opinion on this issue since the Bosnian annexation crisis. But you are right that it will not be easy to argue for that.

Maybe instead of an increase in army size we will see a drastical improvement on the technical side (machine guns, artillery, forts) and an increase in stockpiling ammunition and other war relevant material in 1912 and an army size increase will then be pushed through in 1913 under the impression of the next Balkan crisis.

For now I am not sure how this will end. I will most certainly have a look at Brose. I had the book on my table in the last week, but never came to reading it, because I had so many other sources to plough through. Thanks for the hint and advice!

Kind regards,
G.
 
If the evil Prussian militarists invest in more soldiers for overrunning Europe (continental), this will only result in good Sir Edward siding even more with the Franco-Russian alliance.
After all, neither France nor Russia were ever threatened by Willy's luxury fleet, but by the nailed boots and spiked helmets of the Prussian legions - and with them at peril was the glorious balance of power...

Whatever Germany does - except dissolving voluntarily - will send the other powers howling with fear - and preparing for war...
 
If the evil Prussian militarists invest in more soldiers for overrunning Europe (continental), this will only result in good Sir Edward siding even more with the Franco-Russian alliance.
After all, neither France nor Russia were ever threatened by Willy's luxury fleet, but by the nailed boots and spiked helmets of the Prussian legions - and with them at peril was the glorious balance of power...

Whatever Germany does - except dissolving voluntarily - will send the other powers howling with fear - and preparing for war...
This holds some truth. I have to see how things will work out. I found some interesting books on British politics.

Kind regards,
G.
 
Germany will need help and supplies if it wants to win ww1, and it's got a few nations surrounding them that may be interested in German industry to bolster their own armies as well as defences in their homelands or colonies.

The Netherlands may be interested in upgrading the KNIL and perhaps even expand their own fleet, which would help Germany (if allied) to offset the naval balance of power.
 
Whatever Germany does - except dissolving voluntarily - will send the other powers howling with fear - and preparing for war...

I think this is unfair. It's not like Britain and French interests didn't clash, or British and Russian, or even British and American. Conversely, there were times when French and German interests aligned.

Yet we never saw the Anglo-American War of 1925.
 
I think this is unfair.

Well, even without Tirpitz' wickedly expensive coastal protection fleet (the term Hochseeflotte is rather misleading, perhaps adopted diligently to mask the fact that they couldn't operate just there), Germany had been singled out as the coming - some already were believing: the being - hegemon of Europe.

Russia somehow was too far away from the British isles to qualify for that role, although it was fear of Russia that drove Germany eventually to war.
 
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I think this is unfair. It's not like Britain and French interests didn't clash, or British and Russian, or even British and American. Conversely, there were times when French and German interests aligned.

Yet we never saw the Anglo-American War of 1925.

Well, even without Tirpitz' wickedly expensive coastal protection fleet (the term Hochseeflotte is rather misleading, perhaps adopted diligently to mask the fact that they couldn't operate just there), Germany had been singled out as the coming - some already were believing: the being - hegemon of Europe.

Russia somehow was too far away from the British isles to qualify for that role, although it was fear of Russia that drove Germany eventually to war.
You both have fair points there. As far as I remember the historians seem to be devided on the issue how much Germany would have been perceived a threat if they had abstained from there naval build up and some other assorted not so clever political moves like the Panther in Agadir. There are those who are certain that Great Britain and Germany could have become really good allies in such a case. One has to admit that in the late 1890s Lors Salisbury was very keen to gain an alliance with Germany. Then there was the Haldane mission. Furthermore Germany did many diplomatically awful things and it had most certainly war mongers in their General Staff. But on the other hand there are those who are saying that Germany would have always been perceived as threat because it would endanger the balance of power on the continent and Great Britain could not allow that. This argument often claims that German interests in colonies were finally the spark for WW1 and somehow these people think that Germany in contrast to other nations had no right to gain colonies or be a player in this imperialistic game thus claiming the moral high ground.

I for one am not sure, which side is right and this is a rather quick and dirty and inaccurate summary just from memory - I should have put that TL much earlier to writing but I was just reading and forgetting half of it. Tomorrow I will engage some books on these issues. There is a rather good collection on the foreign policy under Sir Edward Grey, a book called "Splendid Isolation" and some other stuff which will help me to evaluate chances for a naval détente and a political understanding. As I hinted in previous installments I tend to think that both will come to pass, although the political understanding will be not going so far as Bethmann would hope for. If this will hinder Great Britain to enter any WW1 analogue is also something which will to be reevaluated when I reach that chapter.

Kind regards,
G.
 
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This argument often claims that German interests in colonies were finally the spark for WW1 and somehow these people think that Germany in contrast to other nations had no right to gain colonies or be a player in this imerlialistic game thus claiming the moral high ground

Well, the world's second large merchant fleet certainly was a a greater threat to White Hall than Tirpitz' antiquated 'risk fleet'. - Unfortunately, Great Britain had slept through the second industrial revolution - and had to cede the leading role to either the US or Germany. While alienating the US would have been suicidal, identifying Germany as 'the threat' was harmless - because Germany had no the slightest chance of doing damage to the British empire militarily.
 
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