A Stronger Spring Offensive: Will the Central Powers be Victorious?

[Hnau]

For whatever reason, Leon Trotsky or maybe someone else agrees to the initial demands of the German Empire at Brest-Litovsk: the cession of territory behind German trenches on the Eastern Front, specifically Poland (including some land east to the Kresy), Lithuania, and Courland (western Latvia, including Riga). Also, Russian troops are to surrender the rest of Romania, while Ardahan, Kars and Batumi are ceded to the Ottoman. This would quite likely require slightly more reparations... could we say 8 billion marks instead of 6 billion marks in OTL?

These are just details. By the beginning of January, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is signed and significant German troops are transferred from the Eastern Front to the Western, and here is the important part: 70 divisions instead of 50 divisions, because 20 divisions aren't required to occupy the Ukraine and Estonia. The Kaiserschlacht is still planned: and earlier as well, probably by March 1 at the latest, as in OTL, the Spring Offensive could get underway only once hostilities on the Eastern Front had ended. An added bonus is that stormtroopers will have at least three times more time to train, meaning they will certainly be more effective.

So, let's say that on March 1, 1918, Operation Michael is launched with stormtroopers that are around twice as well trained. That's not the only immediate butterfly, the thick fog was crucial to the success of Michael... was there similiar conditions on March 1? We must find out, perhaps in diaries.

In any case, what do you think will happen with an extra 20 divisions, a significantly larger reserve of stormtroopers, better trained stormtroopers, and an earlier launch date for the Spring Offensive? Could Germany actually bring the Allies to the negotiation table, or was it all still for naught? Your views?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

They might take Paris, read might... However that wont guarantee a French capitulation, if the French continue to fight the Germans has pretty much lost the war, if France capitulates there are still Britain and the US to fight, no even with a stronger offensive the prospect of the Central Powers ain't good.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

It wasn't possible for the German troops to advance as far as Paris. OTL's advance was as far as I think was possible. Basically, once the Germans didn't take Paris in '14, I think that one could argue that the Germans were never realistically going to be able to.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Defeating the British and taking the Channel Ports would win the war.
Once the British had been knocked out of the war, the French would have sued for peace.

 

[Hnau]

Hmmm... okay. But let's get a little bit more detailed, here.

Operation Michael (Somme Offensive) - 1 March to 15 March - While there is a divergence in the number of American divisions, it isn't substantial on this area held by the British Third Army. The British Third haven't incorporated 'staggered defense', and while on March 1 there wasn't any thick fog, the stormtroopers are thrice as well trained, and so the result is as if there had been. They take the same area they did in OTL. In the aftermath, Foch is promoted to Generalissimo twenty days ahead of schedule. Losses are virtually the same as OTL.

Operaton George (Lys Offensive) - 20 March to 14 April - This will be the first significant departure: Ludendorff scale Operation George back into the OTL Georgette... here, with additional soldiers, it will be much more expansive. However, a con: in OTL, the Portuguese defenders were just about to be moved to a different area, and contributed to their failure on the front. This won't happen. I believe they could take Hazebrouck and Ypres! Twice as many troops lost, 1.5x duration, but the main point is that the Channel ports have just been cut off from a vital rail center, which is going to make British operations difficult. Yikes! Big change here.

Operation Blucher-York (Third Battle of the Aisne) - 12 May to 22 May - Less Americans and more reserves will be significant here. I see the Germans taking slightly more territory, but not Rheims. 1.25x troops lost.

Operation Gneisenau - 26 May to 30 May - Not going to take Compiegne, but they are going to push the lines pretty close... only slightly more casualties, minimal.

Operation Marne-Rheims (Second Battle of the Marne) - 16 June to 26 June - The Germans won't wait 33 days before launching their next offensive, they aren't yet through with those extra 20 divisions. Due to more territorial advances in Blucher-York, Rheims is going to fall and a large salient created where there wasn't one in OTL. Less Americans will also be crucial, though at this point this is launched only a month earlier than OTL, so it isn't significant.

That's all for now, I need to crunch some numbers on how many more men the German Army can afford, but still, open to opinions and suggestions on what we got so far.

 

[Hnau]

Operation Michael - Identical losses: Allies 255,000 men; Germans 239,000.

Operation George - Significantly different: Allies 215,000; Germans 220,000.

Operation Blucher-York - A moderate deviation: Allies 165,000; Germans 159,000. So far, ITTL losses are +139,000 than OTL, but those extra 20 divisions give them about 700,000 extra men to throw around, as said before.

Operation Gneisenau - Very slightly different: Allies 37,000; Germans 32,000.

Operation Marne-Rheims - Completely different from OTL, more like the successes of Michael and Blucher-York before it: Allies 173,000; Germans 164,000. ITTL German losses are +305,000 over OTL, with 395,000 troops remaining before the Spring Offensive fails, as it did during the Second Battle of the Marne. The next offensive will be a desperate, massive offensive on the Channel ports. British supplies aren't flowing in as well due to the taking of Hazebrouck and Ypres, although the Allies have been desperately trying to make other former of re-supply more efficient since George in mid-April.

Now we must introduce: Operation Jurgen, or the Second Battle of the Lys, or the Drive on Dunkirk. It begins on July 6 with a creeping barrage that the Allies are nevertheless prepared for. This region is strategically vital, and so deep defenses have been developed for a good while. Nevertheless, Ludendorff uses stormtroopers and a fantastic amount of men in what he believes is the last chance to take Dunkirk and Calais from the Allies and force the British out of the war. With the lines closer to Paris and only ten days after the Second Battle of the Marne, Ludendorff's strategy works: the Allies have moved a significant amount of men southwards. However, there is yet another advantage: with Ypres and Hazenbroucke, the Allies have regarded the territory towards Dunkirk as inevitably to be taken by Germany. With focused projects farther to the rear in building up other Channel ports, officers and generals in the know have not placed that much urgency in the area the Germans want, as in the First Battle of the Lys where defense seemed paramount to keeping Germany from victory. All these factors allow the Germans to create a large, new, strategically-efficient salient all the way to Dunkirk. Yes, after the creeping barrage there are several attempts at a breakthrough and one of them works, forcing the Allied troops into a retreat towards Dunkirk. When the Germans reach Dunkirk in two weeks time, there is an eerie replay of the Battle of Riga: the Allied soldiers are ready to abandon Dunkirk at any moment, and when the Germans let out a Feuerwalze on the morning of July 23, military order collapses with officers ordering their men into vessels or onto rail cars to evacuate the city (with much of the populace already evacuated out of fear). Yes, the Germans succeeded largely not because they had the ability, but because they had proved to the Allies that they could have such ability, and when it had become ingrained in the Allied soldier's mind that Dunkirk would fall, it did. On July 28, Operation Jurgen comes to an end.

Casualties are for the Allies 316,000 and the Germans 293,000. This is easily the most exhausting battle fought in a while for both sides. For the Allies, Dunkirk is a strategic loss but they've prepared for it, and Calais is doing its utmost to pick up the slack. By this point, ITTL, German losses are +598,000 over OTL, with only 102,000 troops remaining. Furthermore, Ludendorff is going to wait at least a month before attacking once more, while the Allies led by the French are planning on an offensive on August 22, a few weeks later, at nearly the same time. This will be the Battle of Amiens in OTL. However, Ludendorff would likely want to focus on Calais and Bolougne and see Vimy, Sauchez and Arras as impediments to that offensive. A diversionary offensive is too costly at this point... he's got to stretch as many troops as he's got. That means there will be a significant amount of troops just north of the Battle of Amiens front... which means a counter-offensive is imminent.

The Battle of Amiens is going to be vastly interesting. The Allies are going to push many kilometers in the first day, reaching the outskirts of the village of Broy, but as the supply line stretches, and the offensive stalls, the Germans are going to begin a counter-offensive on August 25 and I would predict success in taking Vimy, Arras, and Sauchez and stopping the Battle of Amiens in its tracks. This will be likely the point where the extra 20 divisions stop mattering and the Germans are ready to play defense because they just don't have the manpower. This entire episode could last three weeks. On September 13 I fully expect the Allies to begin their analogue to the Hundred Days Offensive, and, hell, now the Americans have the divergent advantage with a month's worth of troop transport across the Atlantic! They are likely to get a lot more credit in this timeline.

Thoughts?

 

[Hnau]

Map. Hopefully this is self-explanatory. Disregard dates. As you can see the Kaiserschlact is much more successful.