A Stronger Russia

WI Russia had become involved in the Balkan Wars on the side of the Balkan League, and at the end of the war had captured Istanbul and large swathes of Ottoman territory, and are able to keep it after the 1913 Treaty of London?

Thus, when WWI breaks out the Russian navy has access to a warm water port and closer proximity to Central Powers interests. What would the effect be, particularly if the Russian army is somewhat stronger or better blooded after its experience in the war?

I'm aware that this is somewhat ASB but give it a try.
 
WI Russia had become involved in the Balkan Wars on the side of the Balkan League, and at the end of the war had captured Istanbul and large swathes of Ottoman territory, and are able to keep it after the 1913 Treaty of London?
Immediate all out total war between Russia and Great Britain. Thought of the Russian battleships within close proximity to Suez were far scarier to the Brits than idea of Hochseeflotte smashing Grand Fleet to pieces. Latter could be repaired. Former was a threat to the Empire's very existence.

Are you aware that British battleships did prevent Russians from taking Instanbul OTL?
 
I sort of agree - it would have sundered the Triple Entente, though Britain would perhaps have remained tied to France, which was also tied to Russia, just that the triangle would not have been completed

The taking of Constantinople would probably have brought around some kind of Anglo-German rapprochement, unless the Kaiser was dumb enough to congratulate the Tsar !

Either way, Franz Josef's already pretty good relations with Britain have been given a reason to become very more close in 1913, so what would things be like by 1914 ?

The assassination of Franz Ferdinand may even be seen in London as a Russian-by-proxy attack on Britain-by-proxy !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
WI Russia had become involved in the Balkan Wars on the side of the Balkan League, and at the end of the war had captured Istanbul and large swathes of Ottoman territory, and are able to keep it after the 1913 Treaty of London?

I'll raise the counter idea that the 'death of the Triple Entente' is grossly over exagerated. France and Russia will stand strongly together and Britain had pretty much written off the Ottoman Empire by that the early 19th century. What is likely is that Italy would have become involved, since it would move on Libya. The Anglo-French will see Libya as a means to completely detach Italy from the Triple Alliance.

While Constantinople and large swathes of Ottoman territory will go to Russia - probably negating the Armenian Holocaust - its likely that Britain and France will also stake out their claims. Britain will probably secure Persia and Mesopotamia and probably parts of Palestine. The Germans may receive a port, but it would be distant from Suez.

Russia has been predominately neutered by the Japanese already and isn't considered a threat by the British. Granted Russian and Britain are having problems with their spheres of influence in Persia, but the balance of power is tipped against the Dual Alliance.
 
I'll raise the counter idea that the 'death of the Triple Entente' is grossly over exagerated. France and Russia will stand strongly together and Britain had pretty much written off the Ottoman Empire by that the early 19th century. What is likely is that Italy would have become involved, since it would move on Libya. The Anglo-French will see Libya as a means to completely detach Italy from the Triple Alliance.

While Constantinople and large swathes of Ottoman territory will go to Russia - probably negating the Armenian Holocaust - its likely that Britain and France will also stake out their claims. Britain will probably secure Persia and Mesopotamia and probably parts of Palestine. The Germans may receive a port, but it would be distant from Suez.

Russia has been predominately neutered by the Japanese already and isn't considered a threat by the British. Granted Russian and Britain are having problems with their spheres of influence in Persia, but the balance of power is tipped against the Dual Alliance.

David

I don't know. For one thing there was a lot of concern, not just in Germany about the expansion of Russian power, industrial as well as military. It had received a check in 1904/05 but was coming back strong. If the Russians had tried to take Constantinople there would have been a strong British reaction. [If by any mad circumstances there wasn’t then it would hand the Ottomans to the Central Powers and Germany and Austria would definitely react.

I say tried because its a hell of a task your suggesting the Russian perform. The city has both land defences, which kept an admittedly rather exhausted Bulgarian army out, and also forts along the Bosporus. Of you think the Anglo-French force in 1914 can't force the straits then why do you think the Russians can? Otherwise how are they going to get there? Overland advance either means a very long way through excellent defensive terrain in the Caucasus/Armenia region or getting through neutral Rumania, exposing their flank to any Austro-German attack. Also as you say its only 5-6 years since the Russians got mauled by the Japanese and then faced internal chaos. The Turks are in a pretty bad way at this point but they are defending which makes it much easier. Also in the 1st Balkan war the Greek fleet prevented them reinforcing their position in Macedonia. Even if no allies come to Turkey's aid this will not be a problem in operations in Anatolia or defence of the capital.

Steve
 
The British fears of Russia annexing Constantinople is entirely 19th century. There were plans drawn up during the Great War that the British would have permitted Russian access to the Mediterrenean. Which means that London was no longer immovable on the point. British naval screening forces most likely would have been eventually based in Cyprus.

I don't think the Russians would have to worry about forcing the Dardanelles, but they also wouldn't be throwing their pitiful Black Sea Fleet thru the Bosphorus. I suspect it will be mostly a land campaign in support of their Balkan allies.

I think London would have stood by France and by proxy Russia. Accomodation had been reached with the French and the British were not exactly courting the Young Turks IIRC. British support of the Ottomans is tied up more with control of the canal and recognizing a mock Turkish suzreignty over Egypt, which probably has more connections with Anglo-Franco colonial rivalry and scares of the 19th century than being connected with the reality of the 20th century. British foreign policy changes - sometimes just by degrees, but it adjusts to changing events.
 
The British fears of Russia annexing Constantinople is entirely 19th century. There were plans drawn up during the Great War that the British would have permitted Russian access to the Mediterrenean. Which means that London was no longer immovable on the point. British naval screening forces most likely would have been eventually based in Cyprus.

I disagree. Its one thing agreeing at the height of the conflict to Russian control of the straits, although that was a major break with previous policy. Its another to stand by while Russia makes a major land grab. [Actually your saying more than that. That Britain would go to war to support such a move as whether Britain acted or not to stop the Russians Germany will].

I don't think the Russians would have to worry about forcing the Dardanelles, but they also wouldn't be throwing their pitiful Black Sea Fleet thru the Bosphorus. I suspect it will be mostly a land campaign in support of their Balkan allies.

How? Sounds like an advance along the European shore but that means going through neutral Rumania, who's German monarch would not be favourable to such a move. Otherwise they have to move it by sea to Bulgaria. Which will be a big logistical task in itself while awaiting the inevitable attack from Germany and Austria.

I think London would have stood by France and by proxy Russia. Accomodation had been reached with the French and the British were not exactly courting the Young Turks IIRC. British support of the Ottomans is tied up more with control of the canal and recognizing a mock Turkish suzreignty over Egypt, which probably has more connections with Anglo-Franco colonial rivalry and scares of the 19th century than being connected with the reality of the 20th century. British foreign policy changes - sometimes just by degrees, but it adjusts to changing events.

It changes, hence the close relations with France and even to a degree with Russia, despite being on the verge of war with them less than a decade before. However its not wildly irrational, as supporting Russia in this would be. Furthermore, whatever will be decided, its far more likely the country will be split and hence will take a markedly smaller part in the major conflict your sparking off. The relationship with France and concern about German power and aggressiveness are important factors but other will come into play and this scenario gives some big ones not to support Russia.

Steve
 
Steve,

I don't see Britain's change towards Russia as being wildly irrational, but as an option when Britain has fewer leeway in European affairs by the early 20th century. I think the crucial point is the defeat of Russia in the Russo-Japanese War and the gradual political changes that were occuring in St. Petersburg 'declawed' the last fears of a Franco-Russian Alliance.

Regarding the Russian advancement into the Balkans I would just figure off the top of my head that Russian forces would transported overseas to Bulgaria and the Black Sea Fleet given a small roll assisting the Russo-Balkan League advance across European Turkey to Constantinople. Don't know what type of defences the Turks have on the Bosphorus, so right now I would just gather that the Russian fleet would just bombard Turkish Black Sea ports.

Granted its likely that any major Russian involvement could trigger some response from Berlin - but at this date von Moltke is pretty darn only thinking about his plans to hit France first. Vienna may protest, but any mobilization will probably take some time and be over by the time Adrianople is occupied. France will support the Russians and I think we will just disagree about the likely British response.
 
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