A Split Electorate: 2012

JANUARY 31, 2012: PAWLENTY, CLINTON WIN FLORIDA: RACES BLOWN WIDE OPEN

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Tim Pawlenty (left) and Hillary Clinton (right) won their party's respective Florida primary

It was a big night for Tim Pawlenty who won the Florida Primary in an impressive manner. Pawlenty secured almost 40% of the vote in a three-way race and put himself back to the front of the pack. Florida became his first primary victory after suffering narrow defeats to Sarah Palin in Iowa and South Carolina. Now Pawlenty is able to move forward with an additional 50 delegates under his belt. The next state is Nevada which votes on February 4th. Should Pawlenty win there where all three major candidates are polling even it would be another great victory to show off to the Republican Electorate. Sarah Palin however is licking her wounds deciding where to go next. February is expected to be a rough month for the Alaska Senator and some analysts say her delegate count will likely grind to a halt until March. Losing that much momentum could kill her campaign. She needs a win in Nevada and Arizona, or even just one, to defy expectations and regain the momentum in the race.

Romney is in deep trouble. His campaign is losing money and he is being overshadowed by Pawlenty. Though moderates favor the former Massachusetts Governor he has been substantially hurt by the issue of Health Care where Tea Party voters have been working overtime to prevent him from gaining the nomination. Palin has joined in with the Tea Party constantly referring to the President's health bill as "ObamneyCare" In fact on the debate stage two days before the Florida Primary Palin had this to say, "How does Mitt expect to face Barack Obama in the eyes and say 'Ya know Mr. President I don't like your health care bill' -- how can he do that when he was the one makin' all of this up and makin' up a statewide version of socialized medicine in Massachusetts?!" Pawlenty has also hit Romney on the issue though to a much lesser extent.

For the first time in recent history Florida Democrats made their state winner-take-all. Increasing the emphasis on winning the Florida primary. The decision cost the President close to 300 delegates Tuesday when Hillary Clinton upset President Obama to take the state. Her victory has revitalized her campaign and will likely push the candidate forward in the coming months. "We needed this momentum and what a win it was!" Hillary told a roaring stadium full of supporters. Her campaign will move forward to Missouri where the Senator will hope to defeat the President. She is constantly using Mark Warner to attract to more moderate candidates who feel the President has gone too-far to the left while she is actively campaigning on a platform to attract those that feel the President is too conservative.

Republican Florida Primary Results, January 2012

Tim Pawlenty: 1,385,695 (38%) --- 50 delegates
Sarah Palin: 1,148,668 (31.5%)
Mitt Romney: 820,477 (22.5%)
Ron Paul: 291,725 (8%)


Delegate Count, RNC...
1,114 delegates needed for majority
Sarah Palin: 58 delegates
Tim Pawlenty: 53 delegates
Mitt Romney: 3 delegates
Ron Paul: 2 delegates


Democratic Florida Primary Results, January 2012

Hillary Clinton: 1,958,353 (54.8%) --- 279 delegates
Barack Obama: 1,615,284 (45.2%)


Delegate Count, DNC...
2,709 needed for nomination
Hillary Clinton: 352 delegates
Barack Obama: 66 delegates


FEBRUARY 4, 2012: PAWLENTY WINS NEVADA: SETS UP TWO-CANDIDATE RACE TO NOMINATION

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Tim Pawlenty is initially taken-aback by the outpouring of support as he walks on stage after winning Nevada's Caucuses

Tim Pawlenty managed to squeak out a victory over Alaska Senator Sarah Palin and former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. Palin poured millions of dollars in to winning the state but ultimately failed to win, losing by 3,498 votes. Romney was not far behind, coming 9,619 votes shy of first place. It was a close and long night for all of the candidates, but all will live to fight another day. Though most experts agree that Nevada narrowed the field to Pawlenty and Palin, it is hard to dispute that Michigan will likely be a victory for Romney whose father was once Governor of the state. Presently Romney leads in Michigan by 6% with Pawlenty in second, but besides Michigan Romney continues to finish a close third. However, with Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, he may find himself staying in until then hoping to ride his chances on winning in the liberal states of Massachusetts and Vermont where Palin receives only 12% of the vote. If he can win those states he could revitalize his campaign, though most agree it will be a steep uphill battle.

Unfortunately for Palin the loss in Nevada has put her behind in the total delegate count. With most Republican states becoming winner-take-all there's a lot of difficulty in her campaign strategy. Palin's strongholds don't come until May, but those are a long ways off and too many states lie in between for her to go too long without winning. Pawlenty generally appeals to conservatives who aren't quite at the "Tea Party" stage in their Republican career. Palin however has a lock on the Tea Party voters and hopes to play that to her advantage. Another key development for Palin is the endorsements of numerous Tea Party leaders and office holders who are hoping that Palin can help them out in November. With the exception of the Tea Party, however, most current office holders are avoiding Palin, fearing she doesn't have enough down-ballot pull to win them or their party another term.

Republican Nevada Caucuses Results, February 2012

Tim Pawlenty: 131,171 (30%) --- 28 delegates
Sarah Palin: 127,673 (29.2%)
Mitt Romney: 121,552 (27.8%)
Ron Paul: 56,841 (13%)


Delegate Count, RNC...
1,114 delegates needed for majority
Tim Pawlenty: 81 delegates
Sarah Palin: 58 delegates
Mitt Romney: 3 delegates
Ron Paul: 2 delegates
 
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