And now it ends:
EPILOGUE (PART II)
In the occupied zone of Tangiers and Tetouan, the Spanish army will have to face armed resistance and terrorist incidents for the first months. The worst incident happens in November 2002 when 7 soldiers die in a suicide attack by an Al Qaeda terrorist in Tangiers. This leads to a harsh antiterrorist campaign by the Moroccan government with US and Spanish assistance when Spain menaces with cutting off the migration program and reconstruction help.
However, and despite the numerous incidents and attacks that will kill 97 spanish soldiers between August 2002 and March 2005, the situation will calm down after early 2003. This is due to several factors such as:
-Gradual liftings of restrictions. Curfew is lifted in August 2002, and in January 2003 voters in the zone are allowed to elect a civilian council that will share government with the Spanish military. For the following years, the military administration will gradually step down, until the Spanish military role is reduced to patrolling the border and cities. In may 2003, press censorship is abolished, ironically making the Zone into Morocco’s most free region.
-Since many soldiers in the Spanish army are of Moroccan origin, as many Moroccan soldiers as possible are deployed as occupation troops to lessen the cultural shock for the civilians.
- After long talks and some bribery, the Spaniards are able to get support from moderate imams, local politicians and tribal chiefs.
The terrorists also alienate themselves when they decide to target local population for collaborating with the occupiers. Despite the Spanish public asking for harsher measures against terrorist attacks, though, the government decides to adopt a stance of moderation and gaining the civilian population.
The carrot of becoming part of the EU also plays a great part on this. However, this will attract great criticism from Spain’s EU partners, who point at the dangerous precedent of integrating a non-european territory with great muslim population- in regards to the Turkish question- and the great development gap between the Zone and the rest of the EU. Right wing radicals, who until then had praised Spain for cracking hard on the moors are now scared that Spain is introducing a muslim territory on the EU. The UK is also opposed, since Spain would be now controlling both sides of the Straits, although with both countries being allied, that is a minor problem.
All in all, the civilians’ attitude towards Spain slowly goes towards a better mood. The occupation authorities have a harder time in rural zones such as El Horra where there were the tougher combats and bombardments, since most civilian victims were concentrated there. However, in the cities; where old men still remember the times of the Protectorate, the general attitude changes slowly to favouring integration in Spain.
In September 2007, and by a narrow margin, voters of the Zone approve being incorporated into Spain as an autonomous community. There is a great outcry in Morocco and the rest of the arab world, but little can be done since it was a provision at the peace treaty. Rioting, though, reaches levels only seen during the war. Due to European pressure, the Zone is not immediately incorporated into EU territory. Instead, a 10-year transition term will pass during which the Zone’s economy will have to be developed to at least approach EU’s minimals. Autonomy will also be delayed. Spain also compromises with Morocco to keep indefinitely the economical agreements of the Treaty of Ankara.
Another plebiscite in May 2010 approves an Autonomy Statute for the Zone. Voters also approve the name change to Autonomous Community of Tingitania –as suggested by a local school teacher- and a flag inspired in the former flag of Spanish Morocco. Tangiers becomes the capital.
Tingitania will prove to be a burden to Spanish taxpayers for the first years, not becoming a profitable place with a development level akin to that of at least Eastern Europe until well into the 2020’s. Rajoy fails to be reelected in the 2007 election due to Zapatero’s “it’s the economy, stupid” campaign, but the socialists don’t get enough majority. Since politics in TTL are less radicalized than in OTL, a “great coalition” between populars and socialists emerges, with Zapatero as president and former Madrid mayor Ruiz Gallardón as vicepresident.
Illegal immigration will also be a problem. In 2006 the military already starts building a fence like the one already around Ceuta and Melilla, becoming the world’s largest anti-immigration fence behind the US-Mexico one. This will of course attract international criticism.
In France, the 2005 riots are butterflied away, but low-intensity rioting will be more widespread, especially between Moroccan and Algerian origin immigrants. Sarkozy wins in 2007 by a great margin.
In the US, President Bush is widely critiziced for his neutral stance in the conflict. Even his more rightist staunch supporters bash him for not helping Spain in the conflict and for letting Spain do its will after the war. The democrats profit this with an aggressive campaign against the president’s “indecisiveness”. The Republicans lose seats in the 2002 midterm election, although they keep control of both chambers.
The images of the Spanish army entering El Aaiun between a joyous crowd have impressed the president and his asessors. They want to repeat those images at Baghdad. The propaganda movement to start a war against Iraq and topple Saddam by early 2003 is already in full throttle, but the unexpected Straits War will have unpleasant side effects for the US preparations. For once, the US’ arab allies are uncomfortable with a second war against a muslim country in less than 10 months. British PM Tony Blair, also uncomfortable with the general US attitude of “We are supposed to be the country of freedom, we must do better than the Spaniards as soon as possible”, is not very fond of invading Iraq in early 2003 either.
Finally, the US decide to postpone the invasion until September, but this is not enough for Blair, who would have preferred a 2004 or 2005 date. Finally, Britain and Spain will refuse to support the Iraq War, although their stance will be more moderate than the French one. In Europe, only Italy and Poland will openly support the US. Instead of the anti-french slur of OTL, there is a more general anti-european feeling all over the US.
In September 2003, the Cheju Island meeting with the presidents of the US, Australia, Poland and the Republic of Korea ends with an ultimatum to Saddam.
Three days later, Coalition forces invade Irak. The war goes pretty much as in OTL, although there is a two day battle for Baghdad instead of the quick operation in OTL. In November the 1st, President Bush declares the end of the war, and the real war starts. US authorities have prepared better the postwar- after all, they’ve seen the incidents in the Zone under Spanish occupation- but soon the situation overcomes them and Iraq becomes the same fucked up place it is in OTL.
With the Iraq war going later than in OTL, Syria does not mess with Lebanese politicians and there is no Cedar Revolution in 2005. This butterflies away the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah.
Al Qaeda terrorism tries to target Europe even harder than in OTL. As soon as September 2002, Osama Bin Laden makes a call to expel the “crusaders” from northern Africa. For the following years, European polices foil dozens of terrorist plots, although they can’t prevent succesfull attacks in Berlin in 2004, London in 2005 and Lyon in 2009.
During the first two decades of the century, the EU, especially Spain and France, will develop a greater interest in North Africa. With Morocco and Sahara becoming de facto Spanish satellites, and Algeria developing stronger ties with the EU, Europe has a greater interest in a more stable continent. In 2003 the Principe de Asturias is deployed to Liberia to support the US peacekeeping force. Shortly after, Legion troops will be deployed in Ivory Coast along with French soldiers to enforce the ceasefire. EU Military and diplomatic pressure will force an uneasy peace in Ivory Coast by 2004 .In 2008 HISAR also signs a deal with the Mauritanian government to start oil prospections in the Mauritanian desert.
The PoD is too nearby to us to make technology significantly different, but the brief straits war will cause some changes on Internet culture. The Keyhole Earth Viewer enjoys a great success during the war as people wants to see the combat zones. This leads to the enterprise being bought by Google in early 2003 and Google releasing Google World 1.0 in December 2003- TTL’s equivalent of Google Earth.
The demand of live video footage of combats during the war also will start the revolution of flash-based streaming video earlier than OTL. In TTL Youtube never arises to prominence, having been overcome by other streaming video sites already successful by late 2004.
In general, the world of 2010 in TTL is slightly different from ours, with a greater transatlantic divide between the US and Europe, and a greater divide in the muslim world between pro and anti western states.
THE END
