A Soviet officers coup, Stalin's worst fears realized?

I find that the purges are often written off as a byproduct of Stalin's paranoia, there is no greater example of this so called paranoia than Uncle Joe's warranted fear of the increasingly affluent Red Army. Something had to be done, Stalin wouldn't allow his chance at complete consolidation be usurped by the brass, and so they were done away with. So the question is this, is it plausible to have Stalin's worst fears realized? Could there be a officers coup in Moscow, and if so when and how? Ive found it might be interesting to create such a scenario in the years leading up to the Great Purges OTL, from about the 1932 Famine to Tukhachevsky's fall from grace. However all scenarios, thoughts, comments, and opinions will be appreciated!
 

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
If it is seen as non-communist might it be easier to have an alliance with France and the UK?

Or if early enough would it handwave support for the republicans in Spain - Hitler might still not like the Russians but could you have a Spanish-Italian-Russian Axis?
 
If it is seen as non-communist might it be easier to have an alliance with France and the UK?

But would it be anti-communist or 'a return to the true values of communism'?

OTOH I don't see a military coup in USSR at any point in time. Anyone with such an idea would find it very dangerous if not impossible to attempt to propagate it within military hierarchy. I mean who could they safely approach with the question 'Hey, wanna attempt to depose Stalin?'. Keeping the plot secret for any period of time would be almost impossible. Most top commanders were Stalin's buddies and they wouldn't hesitate to report anything suspicious to Stalin.

Finally dual command chain would probably make movement of any sizable military units an impossible excessive.
 
Even without the Dual Command Procedure, the attached political commissars and NKVD officers would have to be informed of the kinds of orders that would need to be issued to get military units in position for a coup. A few hours later, Stalin finds out and the guy trying to pull the stunt gets a bullet to the brain.

The Soviets were paranoid as hell about the potential for "Bonapartism"...
 
I agree with all of you Stalin was smart about his priorities, namely staying in charge and eliminating threats. Even Tukhachevsky a man who Stalin called "little Napoleon" in a reference to his fear of Bonapartism stayed loyal till the end praising his country and Stalin before execution by the NKDV. As for a Non-Communist Junta and the USSR in the Axis I think the former is somewhat possible but the later highly unlikely. The generals would likely use Communism as a front declaring the military regime a part of the necessary vanguard of Communism. Stalin had good reason to support Communism it let him do what he liked by supposedly furthering the ideology, if the generals were smart they would do the same. As for the USSR in Axis there may be a very slim chance for an alliance of convenience not unlike OTL but once the rest of Europe was liquidated someone would stab someone else in the back, the alliance wouldn’t last.Maybe we could have a POD in the Soviet-Polish war? It was the last really big military confrontation before the purges perhaps it goes better or worse and that butterflies a coup accordingly? If they lose, the military might blame Stalin and his leadership Tukhachevsky did that in OTL might it be more wide spread amongst the high ranking officers? Also if there was a victory and subsequently unruly polish territory to handle the military might grow stronger than OTL, just a thought. Heck how about NKDV-Red Army cooperation, a little ASB but it would be a deadly combination. What do you guys think?
 
how about NKDV-Red Army cooperation, a little ASB but it would be a deadly combination. What do you guys think?

at first, my reaction to this was "No freakin' way!". But then I remembered that Stalin liquidated Yezhov at approximately same time as Tuchachevsky. The two might try a coup, if they found out and given some sort of a right kind of nudge.

However trouble is once this sort of thing gets started, no body could tell where it ends. People who did it could end up against the wall pretty soon in the next iteration. Probably many knew it and would rather risk a known evil than an unknown.
 
Your both right about the NKDV, I guess the only shot we have is to strengthen the military somehow but even then its not like it would assure a coup. Any thoughts on the polish war idea or other POD's you have in mind?
 
Nobody on earth would work with Yezhov at that point, especially not Tukhachevsky.

In my timeline, Trotsky wins the battle for control of Soviet leadership, never orders a purge and is taken out of power in a Red Army Coup in 1944. Tukhachevsky becomes the USSR's strongman. The Soviet Union becomes Communist in name only.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
In my timeline, Trotsky wins the battle for control of Soviet leadership, never orders a purge and is taken out of power in a Red Army Coup in 1944. Tukhachevsky becomes the USSR's strongman. The Soviet Union becomes Communist in name only.
Apart from the ASB-ness of Trotsky somehow taking over the USSR, you seem to believe that purges are not part and parcel of Bolshevism (they are) and that Tukhachevsky and his clique were not committed Communist (which they were).
 
Apart from the ASB-ness of Trotsky somehow taking over the USSR, you seem to believe that purges are not part and parcel of Bolshevism (they are) and that Tukhachevsky and his clique were not committed Communist (which they were).

The POD is soft, but thats how the TL goes. When I do the redux I'll PM you for some changes.
 
Your both right about the NKDV, I guess the only shot we have is to strengthen the military somehow but even then its not like it would assure a coup. Any thoughts on the polish war idea or other POD's you have in mind?

After the Battle of Warsaw, Poland follows up much harder and faster and liberates both Belorussia and the western Ukraine, and installs the governments of both countries back?

Taking heart in the devastating defeat of the Red Army the remaining Whites in the Far East rally, take Vladivostok and declare the independence of Russia south of of the Amur as the "Republic of Vladivostok" or something similar, and some of the defeated secessionist movements (Armenia? Georgia? Azerbaijan? Southern Central Asia?) rebel again and at least a few succeed?

The generals see Communism as having failed the USSR and discontent bubbles within the Red Army, and when Stalin starts purging the Army it explodes into full scale revolution, the Red Army goes to war against the NKVD and wins, before deposing Stalin and forming a military junta?

Just an idea. Since it has them deposing Stalin right at the start of the purges, it seems to me that it would result in a much more effective Red Army, because it would abort the purges and keep a lot more capable officers in power.

And obviously either a very much reduced or completely abolished NKVD...

(Oh, and if the Red Army refuses to allow the attachment of anyone from the NKVD to its units, then that could cause Stalin to, in retaliation, start the purges early, thus setting off the coup, and also remove the problem of the NKVD hearing about the planned coup through said attachments.)
 
After the Battle of Warsaw, Poland follows up much harder and faster and liberates both Belorussia and the western Ukraine, and installs the governments of both countries back?

Taking heart in the devastating defeat of the Red Army the remaining Whites in the Far East rally, take Vladivostok and declare the independence of Russia south of of the Amur as the "Republic of Vladivostok" or something similar, and some of the defeated secessionist movements (Armenia? Georgia? Azerbaijan? Southern Central Asia?) rebel again and at least a few succeed?

The generals see Communism as having failed the USSR and discontent bubbles within the Red Army, and when Stalin starts purging the Army it explodes into full scale revolution, the Red Army goes to war against the NKVD and wins, before deposing Stalin and forming a military junta?

Just an idea. Since it has them deposing Stalin right at the start of the purges, it seems to me that it would result in a much more effective Red Army, because it would abort the purges and keep a lot more capable officers in power.

And obviously either a very much reduced or completely abolished NKVD...

(Oh, and if the Red Army refuses to allow the attachment of anyone from the NKVD to its units, then that could cause Stalin to, in retaliation, start the purges early, thus setting off the coup, and also remove the problem of the NKVD hearing about the planned coup through said attachments.)

I doubt Poland could pull off that kind of military action the war actually went in their favor OTL and a more crushing victory to that degree doesnt seem to be in the cards. As for the Whites their moral might be strengthened but without foreign aid they wont do much better than OTL. The same goes for the secessionists, they might try a last ho-rah but I cant see them remaining independent for long. Also I doubt the generals will think “Communism has failed” most of them were dedicated to the cause right up to their executions OTL. They might come to the conclusion that Stalin had failed in his leadership but the problem is getting them to work up the nerve to put those thoughts into action. A quick generals coup in the Kremlin is more likely than a revolution. I find it particularly unlikely that even soldiers would take to the streets over their discontent. Your idea about the attachment of NKVD personal could get us somewhere, care to expand on that idea?
 
The Red Army refuses to allow the attachment of NKVD personnel to its units. Stalin starts the purges early as a result. If the generals stay loyal, this might result in the Red Army being stronger by the time the Nazis invade, but I don't see how it would facilitate a coup - it would seem like the opposite in fact.

However, if the generals are wary of Stalin, his starting the purges early might lead to his (Stalin's) receiving a blunt reminder about the power of the Red Army.

A blunt-tipped copper-jacketed lead-antimony-alloy reminder, to be precise...:D

If the generals stay true to Communism it might just lead to a new General Secretary and very early (1933 or so) de-Stalinization. Do you think this would butterfly the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
 
The Red Army refuses to allow the attachment of NKVD personnel to its units. Stalin starts the purges early as a result. If the generals stay loyal, this might result in the Red Army being stronger by the time the Nazis invade, but I don't see how it would facilitate a coup - it would seem like the opposite in fact.

However, if the generals are wary of Stalin, his starting the purges early might lead to his (Stalin's) receiving a blunt reminder about the power of the Red Army.

A blunt-tipped copper-jacketed lead-antimony-alloy reminder, to be precise...:D

If the generals stay true to Communism it might just lead to a new General Secretary and very early (1933 or so) de-Stalinization. Do you think this would butterfly the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

“Red Army refuses to allow the attachment of NKVD personnel to its units” something tells me its not that simple. The attachment of NKDV personal goes back to the Russian Civil War where the Cheka, I believe, were enlisted as Barrier troops at the approval of Leon Trotsky. So the exact POD needs some hammering out, likely meaning that someone has to fall down a flight of stairs, but I like where your going with it and an early purge is a good start, the uncovering of Stalin as the mastermind behind the fabrication of charges is even better. All it would really take would be a handful of top personal,easier said than done I know, to pull off that “reminder” (perhaps quietly with poison? There is evidence he was killed by poisoning OTL). Once Stalin is out of the way his successor, probably Molotov, would be a much easier target for a bullet between the eyes.

The generals will likely stay true to “Communism” and elect whoever was in charge of the coup as General Secretary (or some similar title). De-Stalinization would occur after the coup for sure, Stalin branded as a fifth columnist... how ironic. This might butterfly the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact but I think it would be most interesting to see the Nazi's curbstomp Europe then go head to head with the Military Regimes Red Army. OTL the Red Army was caught entirely unprepared, with Generals in charge, the army unhampered by a purged war leadership, and actual anticipation of a fascist invasion, I have no doubts that the Red Army could match the Wehrmacht blow for blow. Anyway what do you think?
 
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Why would it have to happen prior to WW2? During the war it would be unlikely to happen. However once Berlin falls and Japan surrenders there could be some Field Marshals and Generals who knowing Stalin's history figure they've got nothing to loose. Military coup happens in the Autumn of 1945.
 

sharlin

Banned
That would make sense considering that Stalin was very scared and resentful of the popularity of Zhuikov and the like after the war.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
That would make sense considering that Stalin was very scared and resentful of the popularity of Zhuikov and the like after the war.
What makes more sense is Stalin having Zhukov killed off and nobody saying, "Boo" because he's Vozhd. Luckly, Georgy Konstantinovich was smart enough not to hog too much of the limelight from Comrade Stalin.

The problem is that in any coup (as in any resistance to dictates from the Sovnarkom/Politburo) will pit the military against the Party. This is tantamount to treason in a one-party state that actually considers the Communist Party to be far more legitimate and important than the Red Army. That's why the Army couldn't object to NKVD attachments; to do so would have been to question The Party, and this was completely, (at times) fatally heretical in the Soviet system.

So if the Army resists NKVD encroachment from the get-go, they just speed up the Purges since the Army has "resisted the will of the Workers and Peasants of the Soviet Union" or something.
 
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