A smaller Lebanon (and thus a larger Syria) is created after the end of WWI

CaliGuy

Banned
What if France would have created a smaller Lebanon--focused on Mount Lebanon (with the borders in the map below)--after the end of WWI? :

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...Mount_Lebanon_1862-1917_borders_shown.svg.png

595px-Lebanon_religious_groups_distribution_with_Mount_Lebanon_1862-1917_borders_shown.svg.png


In this TL, the parts outside of the dashed black line will be given to Syria rather than to Lebanon (as in our TL)--thus creating a larger Syria (in comparison to our TL) in this TL.

Anyway, what would the effects of this be on Lebanon, Syria, and the Middle East/neighborhood in general?

As for me, I can think of these things:

-There might very well not be a Lebanese Civil War at all in this TL since Lebanon's Muslim population wouldn't be that large and thus would have both less power and influence and less reason to be upset at the Christian domination of Lebanon.

-As per the point right above, Lebanon continues to be Christian-dominated indefinitely in this TL.

-In regards to Syria, I could perhaps see an Alawite-Shiite alliance between Syrian Alawites and our TL's Lebanese Shiites being developed in this TL (due to them both being put inside of Syria in this TL).

-Elaborating on the point above, if the Alawites will still eventually seize power in Syria in this TL, their hold on Syria might be a bit stronger in this TL due to greater numerical support for their rule--something which could mean that Syria's government will be in a somewhat stronger position (in comparison ro our TL) if a civil war will still eventually break out in Syria in this TL.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

Magical123

Banned
You'd have more sectarian tension with larger Christian and Druze populations.

Israel wouldn't be comfortable at all with a state that size on its border.

Or it might try to develop relationships with various non-Muslim minorities further enraging the Sunni population.

Lebanon itself would probably remain a Christian paradise in the Middle East and would develop relations with the west.

In Syria you'd have various minority groups, the Sunni majority and localized sects that just don't want trouble.

I hate to say it but you'd probably have a worse civil war. If one ever happens that is.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
You'd have more sectarian tension with larger Christian and Druze populations.

You mean in Syria?

Israel wouldn't be comfortable at all with a state that size on its border.

Exactly what choice would it have, though?

Or it might try to develop relationships with various non-Muslim minorities further enraging the Sunni population.

You mean that Israel will do this?

Lebanon itself would probably remain a Christian paradise in the Middle East and would develop relations with the west.

Agreed.

In Syria you'd have various minority groups, the Sunni majority and localized sects that just don't want trouble.

Agreed. :(

I hate to say it but you'd probably have a worse civil war. If one ever happens that is.

Couldn't the additional Shiite manpower help any ruling Alawite Syrian leadership in a Syrian Civil War in this TL, though?
 

Magical123

Banned
You mean in Syria?



Exactly what choice would it have, though?



You mean that Israel will do this?



Agreed.



Agreed. :(



Couldn't the additional Shiite manpower help any ruling Alawite Syrian leadership in a Syrian Civil War in this TL, though?
Yes, yes, a larger Alawites population would most definitely serve as a ruling elite and source of manpower.

The Israelis wouldn't like a state like this at all. They might even try to break it up.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yes, yes, a larger Alawites population would most definitely serve as a ruling elite and source of manpower.

Actually, I was talking about the Alawites using our TL's Lebanese Shiite population as a source of additional manpower in this TL.

The Israelis wouldn't like a state like this at all. They might even try to break it up.

You mean by sponsoring separatist rebellions? If so, could we see Israel sponsor an ISIS-like group in this TL for "pragmatic" purposes?
 

Magical123

Banned
Actually, I was talking about the Alawites using our TL's Lebanese Shiite population as a source of additional manpower in this TL.



You mean by sponsoring separatist rebellions? If so, could we see Israel sponsor an ISIS-like group in this TL for "pragmatic" purposes?
A larger alawite population on the coast wouldn't need the Iranians/Russians to supply manpower in any sort of civil war.

The Israelis might just do something like that.
 

Deleted member 97083

Israel might ally with rump Lebanon, turning it into a puppet state, and then invade Syria, expanding Lebanon into its OTL borders.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, would Hezbollah exist as a separate military and/or political force in this TL? Or would our TL's Hezbollah members simply be integrated into the Syrian political and/or military sphere in this TL?
 
Syria would have annexed Lebanon a long time ago with those borders. Syria's goal was always to create Greater Syria, rulling all the Levant. Syria invaded Lebanon OTL, and will be able to do it easily now that they surround it.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Syria would have annexed Lebanon a long time ago with those borders. Syria's goal was always to create Greater Syria, rulling all the Levant. Syria invaded Lebanon OTL, and will be able to do it easily now that they surround it.
Couldn't Christians in Europe have lobbied their governments to militarily oppose such a Syrian move, though?
 
Couldn't Christians in Europe have lobbied their governments to militarily oppose such a Syrian move, though?

Plus, couldn't Israel have opposed such a Syrian move--indeed, perhaps even with military action?
In OTL syria got away with it. Apart from France nobody cared, and they had more important things to do. Otl israel had a boreder with Lebanon soo wanted to save it. In this tl the occupation of Lebanon by syria wont be soo important.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In OTL syria got away with it. Apart from France nobody cared, and they had more important things to do.

Syria didn't annex Lebanon in our TL, though; plus, Syria actually withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 in our TL.

Otl israel had a boreder with Lebanon soo wanted to save it. In this tl the occupation of Lebanon by syria wont be soo important.

Wouldn't the goal of preventing Syria from becoming too strong be an important factor for Israel in this TL, though?
 

Magical123

Banned
Syria didn't annex Lebanon in our TL, though; plus, Syria actually withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 in our TL.



Wouldn't the goal of preventing Syria from becoming too strong be an important factor for Israel in this TL, though?
Certainly.
 
Maybe the small chunk in the south centered in Sidon and Tyre might be broken off as a seperate Druze/Sunni state.

I see this firmly Christian Lebanon very close with Israel as time goes on.
 
I just can't see Lebanon surviving that long till Israel can do stuff about saving it. This TL Lebanon is small and surrounded by syria, in an age were pan-syrian feelings are very much a thing. I can hardly see it survive past the fifties.
 

Deleted member 97083

I just can't see Lebanon surviving that long till Israel can do stuff about saving it. This TL Lebanon is small and surrounded by syria, in an age were pan-syrian feelings are very much a thing. I can hardly see it survive past the fifties.
But Israel is fighting Syria as early as 1948. If they win that war, then they can expand Lebanon into its OTL borders at the same time they stabilize and create Israel.
 
But Israel is fighting Syria as early as 1948. If they win that war, then they can expand Lebanon into its OTL borders at the same time they stabilize and create Israel.
We won the war for independence (the war of 1948) and got the 1949 borders. The most I can see is in an absolute Israeli wank in which Israel annex southern Lebanon till the Litany river if we mange to conquer it. If Lebanon never had the south then Israel got a better claim to it, as it is traditionally considered the northern border of the land of Israel. If this happens then yes, Lebanon will surly seek an alliance with israel in order to be saved from syria, now the israel and Lebanon have a common border.
 
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