A Sforza-Palaeologina Wedding

While Federico Gonzaga was still deciding who he wanted to marry, his previously betrothed, Maria Paleologina (whom he had discarded simply because her brother recovered from the illness that many thought would kill him), was likewise shopping around for other husbands. One gentleman was named Francesco Sforza, and he just happened to be the sometime duke of Milan. He seemed rather earnest in his suit, until Bonifacio IV of Monferrato died, and Federico broke off his engagement to Giulia of Naples to marry Maria. However, then said lady took to her bed with an illness, never to rise. Federico simply moved on down the queue and married her younger sister, Margherita; while Francesco married Christine of Denmark, and then died without producing any half-Danish babies.

What if Francesco had snapped Maria up while she was on the market? Admittedly, he didn’t have a whole lot of time to do so between Federico’s breaking of the engagement (1528) and Bonifacio’s death (17 October 1530), but even if Maria produces one son (say 1529/1530), then the boy is 4/5yo if Francesco dies on schedule. What might the future hold for the new generation of Sforzas? And how might they deal with the next round of Franco-Imperial aggression? As well as a feud between the Sforza and Gonzaga over the Monferratian inheritance if Federico still marries Margherita?
 
My we are busy:eek:

That said, the control of the duchy of Milan looked like a really awkward tennis match between the Sforza and the Valois for the first half of the 16th century. And the succession of the Sforzas seems to be rather opportunistic, running il Duchetto, his uncle, Ludovico, then Massimiliano (Ludovico's eldest son), Francesco II (Ludovico's second son), back to Massimiliano and back to Francesco II.

Despite the fact that this is a duke rather than a marchese she's marrying, Maria Palaeologina is going to be very conscious of the disputed succession in Milan. But, assuming said match goes ahead, and Margherita marries Federico as OTL then we have some other questions.

The Alençon inheritance, for instance. When the last duke died, it was split between his sisters (the duchess of Longueville and then of Vendome; and the marquise de Montferrat) and his widow: Marguerite d'Angoulême (sister of François Ier of France). However, his widow took the lion's share (despite the fact that there had been no children born of the marriage), while the remainder was partitioned between his sisters, with the elder obviously getting the larger portion - which ended up in the royal demesne through the accession of Françoise, duchesse de Vendome's grandson, Henri IV. That said, Anne's rights passed to her Gonzaga grandchildren, establishing them in the French aristocracy, and making some fortuitous marriages into the de la Marck family.

However, here, Anne's inheritance goes to the Sforza grandchildren, making them awkward clients in the French aristocracy (particularly since the king of France is trying to claim their patrimony). And they're probably gonna squabble with the Gonzaga about this if Anne divides her inheritance. As to the marquessate of Montferrat, it'll probably be the compensation prize to the one who doesn't get the Alençon inheritance. So, Milan might get Montferrat while Gonzaga goes to France.

If Maria only has a daughter (Anna Beatrice, after her grandmothers), then the same problem crops up in the next generation, but most likely the girl either marries the duke of Savoy (who also wanted Montferrat) or the duke of Mantua (the next heir).

Now, if Francesco II dies on schedule (1535) then a child from his marriage to Maria is going to be at most 6/7yo. Probably Giovanni Paolo (Ludovico's bastard son) becomes regent if Maria's dead. However, Giampaolo had his own designs on the duchy, perhaps a repeat of 'il Duchetto'. The emperor, likewise, OTL seized the duchy for his son (whom he invested as duke of Milan in 1540). The king of France will most likely invade at the soonest possible moment and carry this little boy off to France. However, unlike il Duchetto, he has connections to the French royal family (through Anne d'Alençon) so I feel he'd probably be educated in France to be a loyal French subject (or poisoned, you decide).
 
Just out of curiosity, if the Sforza survive into the next generation, do the Farnese still take over Parma? Or are they assuming another dukedom entirely if Paul III still becomes the worst example of family nepotism in the Catholic Church after Alexander VI?
 
AFAIR, Pier' Luigi Farnese was Count of Pitigliano in right of his wife, Gerolama Orsini dei Pitigliano, and Lord of Nepi from 1537, while his son, Ottavio was duke of Camerino from 1540-1545. But what would be cool is if the Farnese still have their feud with the Gonzaga (can't remember what caused it), and a feud with the Sforza (over seizing part of their duchy), but the Sforza and the Gonzaga are feuding over the Alençon inheritance.

Also, if the Sforza survive in the form of Il Duchetto 2.0 France might just march in and take him home to France like they did with his cousin. So hopefully Francesco II misses whatever killed him OTL.
 
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