A series of assumptions: a Britwank on a budget?

[Riain]

With South Georgia back in British hands it was obvious that the Falklands would be next, this sharpened the focus of the Argentines considerably. Senior officers in Air Force fast-jet Air Brigades flew their fighters and attack aircraft to BAM Malvinas to check the practicality of using this strip in an emergency. They concluded that Mirages and Daggers could only use this strip in a combat emergency due to their exacting airfields requirements. However the A4 was not quite to particular about it’s airfields and as a naval aircraft was built to handle arrested landings as a matter of course. It was decided that the 4th and 5th Air Brigades with their A4 Gruppo could plan missions to include the use of BAM Malvinas as a recovery airfield. It was recognised that this could not be a routine occurrence, the airfield would be too vulnerable to air attack and having scarce aircraft being caught on the ground would be a disaster, but it gave these Air Brigades another option when conducting operations.(1)

María Luisa, a spy trawler based at Mar del Plata. spotted a British warship on 26 April shortly after being overflown by a Buccaneer from 809 sqn(2), which revealed to the Argentine intelligence the path of the British battle group. Three days later she was of a three-trawler flotilla along with Usurbil and Mar Azul which intercepted supply vessel RFA Fort Grange further confirming that the British Fleet were almost upon the Malvinas. Time was almost up, the fighting was about to begin in earnest.

1. IOTL the braking curves of the Super Etendard were analysed and it was found that they were too tight for the 4,100’ runway, particularly in the wet.
2. IOTL this was a Sea Harrier

 

[Spencersj345.346]

I think fixed positions are going to get Buccaneered, so the Argentines will learn pretty quickly to at least 'shell game' stuff, shoot and scoot.

Sea Harriers used to do CAPs with a bomb in the centreline, they'd drop it on the Port Stanley runway for harassment purposes. I'm thinking the Buccaneers will do a lot of H&I against fixed positions and hunt things like helicopter parks, AA guns, artillery positions etc. While the Argentines weren't great at winning stand up fights they did manage to conduct flights to Port Stanley most nights and keep stuff out of the Brits way as to not get destroyed.

There was also a lot of 'wasted' days where CAP was maintained all day but no aircraft appeared, they will still happen.

Hmmmm I get the feeling that the possibility of running out of bombs will be a serious problem for the Prince of Wales.

 

[Riain]

Hmmmm I get the feeling that the possibility of running out of bombs will be a serious problem for the Prince of Wales.

Nah, the supply system was pretty good and the magazines on the PoW were pretty big.

But I've come across another serious problem, one I'm reluctant to do the obvious with because of the earth shattering consequences.

 

[Rickshaw]

A huge problem not accounted all that well is the Weather. The Weather down south was quite drastic and the British only had about 4 weeks in which to win the campaign before it closed in and precluded operations for about 8 - 10 months. You have noted the weather deadline but not what will happen if they fail. They can either retreat to South Georgia, to Ascension or to South Africa. All are a long way to the Falklands/Malvinas.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Nah, the supply system was pretty good and the magazines on the PoW were pretty big.

As I recall in the otl Falklands with just Harriers the UK was shocked by just how many munitions where expended. I suspect that while the ordnance supply of the task force may be good a sizable chunk of the UK's stockpile will going south to resupply them

 

[Riain]

I've decided what to do about the serious problem, what to do about the 25 de Mayo in the face of 14 Phantoms and 20 Buccaneers.

 

[Jellico]

And here I was thinking you were going to Taranto someone.

 

[Schlock]

I've decided what to do about the serious problem, what to do about the 25 de Mayo in the face of 14 Phantoms and 20 Buccaneers.

Tennyson said it best.

"Sink me the ship, Master Gunner—sink her, split her in twain!"

 

[Riain]

No carrier has been sunk since WW2, this is a wank but I'm reluctant to have it so much of a wank that the British sink the carrier.

The problem is how does it avoid being sunk.

 

[Schlock]

No, an obsolescent WW2 light carrier being curbstomped by a modern carrier isn't a wank. It's pretty much an odds on certainty that the RN would try to sink her if the opportunity presented itself.

The only thing that could save her would be political interference.

 

[Jellico]

Keep her in harbor as per OTL. The consequences of a strike on Argentine soil really would be earth shattering.

 

[Mike D]

25th is old, fairly small, crewed with a fair number of conscripts, she's not been particularly well looked after and she's facing a lot of modern strike aircraft carrying modern(ish) weapons. Having her survive seems more unlikely than her sinking if she puts to sea.

 

[Rickshaw]

I can imagine the 25th being attacked with Martels. There really isn't much else in the UK's inventory that the Bucc can carry. They wouldn't have torpedoes and heavier anti-ship missiles weren't available either. So it would either be a Martel or an iron bomb. Buccs didn't in 1982 have laser systems.

How to avoid her being sunk? Well, she could hide in harbour or she could be run aground. Either way she wouldn't have been sunk. Otherwise there could be political interference but really, after sinking the Belgrano, Maggie wouldn't be interested in not sinking the 25th.

 

[Riain]

Quick update on post #281.

I'm trying to find stuff for Phantoms to shoot down and Buccaneers to bomb, there appears to be no shortage of little ships running around the danger zone fighting at long odds.

Just to keep people's expectations low, in 1973 the Israelis had a success rate of ~25% with their Sparrows, in 1991 PGW the Sparrow success rate was ~40%. Also the Gannet had a range of 700 miles, equating to a 5 or 6 hour flight. In addition, in wartime most combat jets only fly once a day, maybe 5 times in 4 days when things are going well.

 

[El Pip]

Just to keep people's expectations low, in 1973 the Israelis had a success rate of ~25% with their Sparrows, in 1991 PGW the Sparrow success rate was ~40%.

Should have followed the OTL plan of turning the AIM7 into Skyflash by fitting a seeker that actually worked. I can see that being a post war priority for the FAA and RAF.

 

[Sam R.]

Is the problem blat. Because blat is a political problem. I assume that she who burns wouldn't blat. Wouldn't even strategic warfare with conventional munitions. Would be cautious over mainland military targets.

You can sense my opinion on her moral values. But I value her potence. She is potent. But even she would, a female patriarch composed of munitions, even she would prioritise military targets solely militiary by the standards of the time.

So there's problems.

yours, not hers,
Sam R.

 

[Riain]

Should have followed the OTL plan of turning the AIM7 into Skyflash by fitting a seeker that actually worked. I can see that being a post war priority for the FAA and RAF.

The RAF has the Blue Jay, which is more or less the TTL analogue of Skyflash development, it's not worth developing a new missile for a fleet that started out at 55 aircraft.

Buccs didn't in 1982 have laser systems.

The RAF Buccs got a simplified Pave Spike in 1979, so the RN has it ITTL.

 

[Rickshaw]

The RAF Buccs got a simplified Pave Spike in 1979, so the RN has it ITTL.

Interesting. I stand corrected but it is still a big ask for the RN to keep up with the Air Force as far as armament goes.

 

[groundhogday666]

The Argentine Air Force threw everything and the kitchen sink at the Falklands to try and locate the British fleet
- Boeing 707
- Hercules
- a couple of P-2 Neptunes
- Learjets
- Canberras
(from the top of my head)
The Sea Harriers and naval missiles then had a field day. The 707 barely escaped a couple of times, so did the Neptunes (but they were old and unreliable) yet all the others got losses. A Learjet was blasted from 50 000 feet by a naval SAM (can't remember what Sea-something it was).

Against Phantoms, losses to that rag tag fleet of aircraft would be even worse.

As for Port Stanley airfield... OTL: naval guns and Sea Harriers did not packed enough punch to efficently ruin it for long enough. That's why they send the Vulcan in Black buck raids, only for one bomb to make one crater that was filled. The Harriers did their best, too, but suffered losses to guns and missiles defending the air strip. Plus their bombs were too light, unguided, and so where their rockets.

By contrast Buccaneers should do a a good job. They can carry lots of big bombs (including clustered) and guided missiles, far more than a Harrier and much more easily than a lone Vulcan at the extreme end of its rope - Ascension island 4000 miles away !

Same for SEAD. The Argentinians had a damn fine radar covering Port Stanley. OTL Harriers did not carried ARM missiles: only Black buck Vulcans, which were hastily wired for Shrikes. Once again, that wasn't efficient - or even politically disastrous, when late May a Vulcan had to land in Brazil with a Shrike still hanging to its pylon... oops !
By contrast with that misery, repeated Buccaneers raids with plenty of Martels should be able to efficiently neutralize that radar covering Stanley. Turning it into smoldering chards of metal.

Galtieri is really pulling out a Maurice Gamelin attacking the Falklands ITTL. It is far more a suicide than OTL, which already was a risky gamble - to speak politely...

The air attacks that crippled a good number of RN ships OTL will take a different turn ITTL.
some notable facts
- lack of efficient AEW had Skyhawks and Mirage screaming at wave level.
- on the good side: they managed to sink a respectable number of ships
- on the wrong side: their bombs were obsolete and had no time to arm properly
- their fuel consumption at low level was horrible, hitting their range significantly

ITTL, the only few positive aspect of these raids - no AEW to send the Sea Harriers killing them ahead of the fleet - is gone. Gannets will see them coming, and Phantoms, not Sea Harriers, will jump on their backs. In a few words: it will be a slaughter. Particularly since the Phantom has far more CAP / loiter time than the SHAR.

good grief... I wouldn't want being an Argentine air force pilot...

Even the Super Etendards will be in trouble. If Gannets see them coming and Phantoms jump on them, they are toast. No way they can get close enough to launch their Exocets...

 

[Riain]

On 30 April Britain changed the MEZ to a Total Exclusion Zone, all aircraft and ships within this zone were liable to be attacked without warning. At 2 in the morning on 1 May Prince of Wales turned into the wind and launched 4 Buccaneer, each armed with 6 1,000lb bombs and slipper tanks for extended range. These aircraft climbed to altitude and began their two hour flight to Port Stanley. As they approached the range of the TPS-43 radar based at Port Stanley the differential radar receivers in the wingtips enabled them to home unerringly onto their intended target as they stepped down to remain under the radar horizon. Dropping to 200’ for the last 30 miles they approached the runway at right angles, going past the runway before executing a steep climb to release their bombs in the ‘over the shoulder’ maneouvre usually reserved for nuclear weapons before exiting on a 90 degree axis. The 24 bombs arced up into the air before falling in a steep descent toward the runway, most missed but a single bomb hit off centre towards the middle of the runway breaking off a large scab.(1) Egressing at low level the 4 Buccaneers climbed to the northeast for their journey back to the carrier in darkness.

At first light the Prince of Wales, now 150 miles east of East Falkland,(2) turned into the wind and began launching the first range of the day. First into the air were a pair of AEW Gannets, to take up position halfway between the PoW and the and Port Stanley airfield, about 100 miles apart from each other north to south. This would give an oblong shaped low level radar picture about 250 miles east to west and 400 miles north to south, although with a lot of land in that coverage. Thus began 849 sqns gruelling war. Next into the air were a pair of Buccaneer tankers, which climbed into position above the Gannets. Finally 4 Phantoms from 892 sqn leapt off the BS6 catapults and roared up to rendezvous with the Buccaneer tankers, upon reaching their station they topped off their tanks from the Buccaneers and began their vigil.(3)

The Prince of Wales slowed for launching speed, turned back onto the patrol heading while the deck crews busied themselves bring the next range up to the flight deck. 12 Buccaneers, loaded with 1,000lb bombs and BLU755 cluster bombs were launched to attack Stanley Airfield and Goose Green airfield.(4) The 9 aircraft heading for Stanley airfield split into groups, the first group of 4 conducted toss bombing attacks, lobbing thier 1,000lb bombs from a distance with a 30 degree climb. Climbing up to 1,500’ in their ballistic arc these 32 bombs fused for air-burst, contact and delayed explosion kept the defenders heads down by filing the air with red hot shrapnel. Under the cover of this attack 5 Buccaneers armed with BLU755 and ‘ballute’ retarded 1,000lb bombs delivered direct attacks on targets around the airfield.(5) It was during this part of the attack that the Buccaneer sustained their only battle damage when a 20mm cannon round hit the tail of an aircraft, exploding as it passed through but the sturdy Buccaneer remained flyable.(6) Minutes later 3 Buccaneer delivered their attack on Goose Green to stunning effect, destroying a pair of Pucara light attack aircraft and damaging another beyond repair.(7) As these aircraft were recovered journalist Brain Hanrahan reported ‘I counted then all out and counted them all back again’.

1. IOTL Black Buck 1 attacked the Port Stanley runway with 1 bomb damaging the runway
2. IOTL the CBG came as close as 70 miles to East Falkland on May 1
3. IOTL 801 sqn with 8 Sea Harriers provided the CAP on 1 May
4. IOTL it was 800 sqn with 12 Sea Harriers that conducted these attacks
5. IOTL Sea Harriers carried 3 bombs in these attacks, retaining their 30mm guns and 100gal drop tanks
6. IOTL a Sea Harrier was hit in the tail with a 20mm shell
7. ITOL Sea Harriers destroyed 1 Pucara and damaged 2 beyond repair

* The picture is an Argentine one taken 18 April before any bombing