A series of assumptions: a Britwank on a budget?
- Thread starter Riain
- Start date
Why I think you've just killed Mirage 2000 here? If the Germans and Italians have committed themselves to Mirage 4000 and are shouldering a significant part of the development cost the French air force is almost certain to follow here, at least for ~160 aircraft (in place of Mirage 2000N and Mirage 2000D) if not the whole order. Also we've probably just killed both Eurofighter and Rafale here, more advanced variants of Jaguar and Mirage 4000 should more than suffice.
Hmm wonder what happens to the Mirage 2000 exports TTL. For India it makes more sense to buy more Jaguars instead of Mirages and MiG-29s. UAEjust buys 4000 and Egypt would love to do the same if the money is there (and given they coughed up $1 billion for just 20 aircraft per SIPRI in OTL it probably is). Then you have the Greeks, who originally were looking for 100-120 aircraft locally built in Greece with Tornado, F-18, Mirage 2000 and F-16 as the candidates and F-18 being the preferred choice. TTL you instead have Jaguar, F-18, Mirage 4000 and F-16 competing, F-16 seems destinctly outclassed here. I'd expect they go either for an all Mirage 4000 force or for a mix of Mirage 4000 and F-16s. Depends on Mirage 4000 cost. If it is on par with Tornado as it is implied here, then 100 Mirage 4000s would cost about as much as 40 Mirage 2000 +40 F-16 and allow both local production and an immensely more capable force... besides letting Papandreou show how independent he is from America.
Australia also adopted the Leopard 1a3 as the AS1 (Australian Standard One). They were the launch customers for the 1a3. They were thinking about the Chieftain as well as the M60 but decided to go with the cheaper non-US/non-Uk Leopard instead. That happened in 1975.
They were also looking for a replacement for the Mirage III from about 1977 onwards. In the mix was the Tornado ADV, F-15, F-16, F-18, Mirage 2000 and Viggen. The Viggen was eliminated early, then the Mirage 2000 and the F-16 and the Tornado, That left the choice between the F-15 and the F-18. The F-18 won 'cause it was cheaper than the F-15, which was the Rolls Royce of planes at that stage. What the RAAF wanted was a fighter-bomber and the F-15 didn't allow "a pound for ground pounding", in it's design.
They were also looking for a replacement for the Mirage III from about 1977 onwards. In the mix was the Tornado ADV, F-15, F-16, F-18, Mirage 2000 and Viggen. The Viggen was eliminated early, then the Mirage 2000 and the F-16 and the Tornado, That left the choice between the F-15 and the F-18. The F-18 won 'cause it was cheaper than the F-15, which was the Rolls Royce of planes at that stage. What the RAAF wanted was a fighter-bomber and the F-15 didn't allow "a pound for ground pounding", in it's design.
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The Iron Lady
Riain
Banned
1979 began with political turmoil. After the defeat of the Scottish Devolution Referendum the Conservatives leader Margret Thatcher tabled a motion of no confidence in Callaghan's minority Labour government, which was passed by just one vote triggering a general election . The result was a strong win for the Conservatives with 339 seats, the first time Britain had a Government with a comfortable working majority since the Conservatives under Heath left office in February 1974, making Margret Thatcher Britain’s first female Prime Minister.
One of Mrs Thatcher’s first announcements upon taking office was that the British Poseidon submarine launched nuclear missile had become operational (1)at a cost of one billion pounds. While obviously keeping exact details a secret PM Thatcher waxed lyrical how the longer range would give the submarines more sea room in which to hide, how multiple warheads and decoys would guarantee penetration of the treaty-bound Moscow ABM system so that this ultimate weapon would continue to be the ultimate bulwark of British security. Mrs Thatcher pointed out that not only had the RN been given a major boost in it’s nuclear capabilities but the RAF had received about 50 new nuclear bombs by reusing the surplus RE.179 warheads from the Polaris A2 missiles as gravity bombs. At 450kt these WE.177C (2) were the largest weapons in the UK arsenal, to be retained in the UK for the exclusive use of the British government rather than assigned to SACEUR for NATO purposes.
Internationally Iran underwent an Islamic revolution with the Shah being ousted from power in January, and event which threw the British arms industry into turmoil. While some 707 Chieftains and 185 FV4030s had already been delivered to Iran all 125 FV4030/2 Shir 1 were on the production line and 250 F4030/3 Shir 2 against the requirement of 1,200 had been authorised for production. A frantic search for a buyer was sought for the Shir 1s on the production line and in June Jordan stepped in to save the day, not only taking on the 125 Shir 1 already on the production line but also ordering another 149 new Shir 1 to be known as ‘Khalid’. While this improved matters markedly for British industry the final sigh of relief was had when the British government bought forward their plan to order the Shir 2/MBT-80 and take the 250 tanks authorized for production against a requirement for at least double that number. (3) With 125 tanks taken off their hands and orders for 400 more on the books the end of 1979 looked far better for the Royal Ordnance factory that it did in the beginning.
One of Mrs Thatcher’s first announcements upon taking office was that the British Poseidon submarine launched nuclear missile had become operational (1)at a cost of one billion pounds. While obviously keeping exact details a secret PM Thatcher waxed lyrical how the longer range would give the submarines more sea room in which to hide, how multiple warheads and decoys would guarantee penetration of the treaty-bound Moscow ABM system so that this ultimate weapon would continue to be the ultimate bulwark of British security. Mrs Thatcher pointed out that not only had the RN been given a major boost in it’s nuclear capabilities but the RAF had received about 50 new nuclear bombs by reusing the surplus RE.179 warheads from the Polaris A2 missiles as gravity bombs. At 450kt these WE.177C (2) were the largest weapons in the UK arsenal, to be retained in the UK for the exclusive use of the British government rather than assigned to SACEUR for NATO purposes.
Internationally Iran underwent an Islamic revolution with the Shah being ousted from power in January, and event which threw the British arms industry into turmoil. While some 707 Chieftains and 185 FV4030s had already been delivered to Iran all 125 FV4030/2 Shir 1 were on the production line and 250 F4030/3 Shir 2 against the requirement of 1,200 had been authorised for production. A frantic search for a buyer was sought for the Shir 1s on the production line and in June Jordan stepped in to save the day, not only taking on the 125 Shir 1 already on the production line but also ordering another 149 new Shir 1 to be known as ‘Khalid’. While this improved matters markedly for British industry the final sigh of relief was had when the British government bought forward their plan to order the Shir 2/MBT-80 and take the 250 tanks authorized for production against a requirement for at least double that number. (3) With 125 tanks taken off their hands and orders for 400 more on the books the end of 1979 looked far better for the Royal Ordnance factory that it did in the beginning.
- IOTL Chevaline became operational in 1980-81.
- IOTL the 450kt WE.177 was the B model and was the first WE.177 to enter service in 1966.
- IOTL Britain canceled the MBT80 and ordered 243 Shir 2 in 1980
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Riain
Banned
I think it's best to think of the Jaguar as more Tomcat than Hornet mainly because of it's 1974 IOC and it's radar harking back to the 60s TSR2 unit like the Tomcat AWG9 harked back to the F111B. The OTL Tornado entered service 5 years after TTL Jaguar and the Mirage 2000/4000 a full decade after TTL Jaguar, with the F16 in 78 and F18 in 83. By then the Jaguar will be pretty old and nearing the end of it's production run and won't be a competitor with the Mirage 4000, F15E or later adopter Hornets.
While I imagine the French would by the 4000 for the 2000N I'd guess the market for medium to big fighters is pretty small, the F15E only sold well deep into it's production run when the price is really cheap for its payload/range. So the Mirage 2000 will still be healthy.
As for the Eurofighter, the RN Phantom and Buccaneer will need to be replaced by the mid 90s and the TSR2 5 or so years after that. It's not difficult to imagine a Super Hornet-esque Eurofighter the Navy stuff and maybe the Jaguar as well.
I mean, if you're buying this TTL Jaguar I don't really see the point of buying MiG-23s instead of more Jaguars.
Riain
Banned
What about cost, diversity of supply and the politics of being in the Non Aligned Movement? India won't buy from the US but if they get too buddy buddy with Britain they'll lose that moral high ground of the NAM. What sort of deals could the Soviets put together, can they make India an offer too good to refuse?
Riain
Banned
We didn't trial the Chieftain in 1972/73. I think we wanted something lighter.
The Hornet had harpoons, we were harpoon mad in the early/mid 80s.
It was eliminated before it could be trialed. Trials were held of M60a1 and the Leopard 1. The M60 was ultimately rejected because the US could not guarantee that they could supply all of the required vehicles in one tranche. The Germans could and did (and did the dirty on us by not allowing us to build the AVLBs ourselves). The reason why multiple tranches were a problem was because there was no guarantee that the vehicle would retain the same controls between them. This could lead to training problems which were unsustainable. A big problem for the Army to sustain different vehicles.
Harpoons were not part of the reasoning behind the purchase of the F/A-18. It's utility as a fighter-bomber were. The F-15 didn't have that capability. The F-16 only had one engine. F/A-18 had two and could deliver air-to-ground armaments. It won the contract.
Cost is a far bigger problem when comparing TTL Jaguars to OTL Jaguars, so we can dismiss that angle. Diversity of supply is nice, but India OTL bought too many types of tactical aircraft between the MiG-21 and Su-30 MKI, so some rationalization is a good idea.
The difference is likely to be license production. The Indians got a license from the Soviet Union to build the MiG-27 at HAL as part of ongoing efforts to build up to a domestic aviation industry. Given the Indians acquired 300 MiG-23s/27s, it would be tricky just from an industrial perspective to replace them all with more Jaguars without such, so a lot depends on the British government's willingness to allow that.
It may end up being that the Jaguar covers MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 orders, the latter in particular since it looks like the Mirage 2000 is going to be butterflied away.
Honestly, I wish I still had that forum post detailing all the major panic decisions the Indians made for their Air Force over the last 40 years.
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The last of the new Dreadnought class SSBNs will named after him
stop being such a drag
Riain
Banned
In March 1980, in an impressive 5 years and 9 months after being laid down the HMS Price of Wales was commissioned into the Royal Navy.(1) With the HMS Bristol, 6 Sheffield class and now 2 Broadsword class the Royal Navy could put together very powerful carrier Task Groups and in retained a considerable ‘Out of Area’ capability if it could assemble both of it’s carriers and its 3 major amphibious ships. The gradual increase in the capability of the Fleet Air Arm continued with a cheap but effective innovation into the Phantom fleet. Given the space constraints on RN carriers, indeed carriers in general, the Royal Navy trained its pilots to dogfight without dropping the tanks that could not be replaced out at sea. Yet this created a considerable source of drag, so much so that the half the fuel in a drop tank was used to move the tank and pylon through the air. If the tank was not going to be dropped because it couldn’t be replaced the RN FAA argued that it’s current pylon and pod setup was placing them at a considerable disadvantage. The solution they arrived at was to construct a long, boat-shaped fairing contoured to the shape of the Phantom's belly that could be attached and plumed for fuel using the standard pylon fittings. Trials proved so effective at reducing drag that the fairing was enlarged, fitted with a 30mm cannon with 150 rounds and cleared for service late n the year.
Later that year, as a response to the war between Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Revolutionary Iran and a mere 5 years after withdrawing from East of Suez permanently the Royal Navy reestablished a presence in the Persian Gulf. Known as the Armilla Patrol it was established by Type 42 destroyer HMS Coventry in October and was expanded with the arrival of a pair of Type 21 Frigates and a pair of Royal Fleet Auxiliaries in support.
The Jaguar won it’s second major export customer in 1980 by winning the Canadian New Fighter Competition, resulting in an order for 138 aircraft and an option for a further 20.(2) The Canadian Jaguar was not like those sold to Oman, Ecuador and India with somewhat downgraded avionics and weapons, in fact the C188 was a significant improvement over the RAF specification with the full suite of weapons including the forthcoming P3T anti-ship missile and all of the advances in avionics that had occurred since the Jaguar entered RAF service in 1974. The choice came down to the Jaguar and F/A18A but the Jaguar won with its generally higher performance, it’s thrust reverse for braking on icy runways so common in Canada and the reputation as a valuable strategic partner Britain had developed over the past decade and more. In the excitement of this huge order the order for 8 navalised, radar equipped Harrier GR3 (3)variants for the Indian navy late in 1979 almost went unnoticed.
Later that year, as a response to the war between Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Revolutionary Iran and a mere 5 years after withdrawing from East of Suez permanently the Royal Navy reestablished a presence in the Persian Gulf. Known as the Armilla Patrol it was established by Type 42 destroyer HMS Coventry in October and was expanded with the arrival of a pair of Type 21 Frigates and a pair of Royal Fleet Auxiliaries in support.
The Jaguar won it’s second major export customer in 1980 by winning the Canadian New Fighter Competition, resulting in an order for 138 aircraft and an option for a further 20.(2) The Canadian Jaguar was not like those sold to Oman, Ecuador and India with somewhat downgraded avionics and weapons, in fact the C188 was a significant improvement over the RAF specification with the full suite of weapons including the forthcoming P3T anti-ship missile and all of the advances in avionics that had occurred since the Jaguar entered RAF service in 1974. The choice came down to the Jaguar and F/A18A but the Jaguar won with its generally higher performance, it’s thrust reverse for braking on icy runways so common in Canada and the reputation as a valuable strategic partner Britain had developed over the past decade and more. In the excitement of this huge order the order for 8 navalised, radar equipped Harrier GR3 (3)variants for the Indian navy late in 1979 almost went unnoticed.
- ITOL HMS Illustrious took 5 years and 9 months from laying down to commissioning
- IOTL Canada rejected the Tornado as too expensive and selected the Hornet which for some unfathomable reason designated the CF188
- IOTL India ordered the Sea Harrier
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Riain
Banned
India should still buy Mig because they're cheap and for the license production deal.
The Jaguars shouldn't eat into Mig29 or Mirage 2000 buys because of the timings.
India is like a lot of 3rd world countries, they have to take whatever deal is best for them at the time rather than thinking about long term efficiencies arising from a minimum amount of fleets. I think this Jaguar buy would be a stand alone event, whereas I've tried to link Canada's tank buy with it's plane buy because they take into account more subtle factors like sustainability and long-term strategic-partnership worthiness of a supplier.
In any case I'm having enough trouble tying in all the factors for Britain, I can't follow all the spinoffs it creates i the rest of the world. EG I started the AEW project in 1977, we're at 1980 and I'm yet to refer t it again, it must be fucked by now.
A reason for Canada to buy the Jaguar instead of the Hornet would be the fact that it's already in serial production and hence can delivered way earlier. Of course this also means they'll need to be replaced earlier
Radiating heat
Riain
Banned
The Trident AEW project had been progressing steadily since 1977, the first structurally complete Trident AEW1 was rolled-out of BAe in March 1980 and flew in July.(1) A Joint Trials Unit was established at RAF Waddington to help develop the Mission System Avionics and in no time at all serious problems with the MSA were identified. The heart of the MSA was the GEC 4080M computer that received data from the radar scanner,(2) the Loral ARI-18240/1 ESM system, the Cossor Jubilee Guardsman IFF equipment and the two Ferranti FIN 1012 inertial navigation systems. The computer processed this mass of data and then displayed it on the multi function display and control consoles (MDCC) where the operators communicated to the various command organisations and operational units through the Automatic Management of Radio and Intercom Systems (AMRICS). Independently, these systems worked correctly, but after they were integrated serious problems emerged. The fundamental problem was that the computer simply was not powerful enough. The GEC 4080M computer had a storage capacity of 1 megabyte, which could be augmented via a data-bus with an additional 1.4 megabytes, giving 2.4 megabytes total storage capacity, which was too small given the task it had to perform. The computer quickly showed it was too slow for the task and soon became overloaded, at which point track continuity suffered, this then led to track duplication, which slowly increased and further overloaded the system.
Another major problem was the sheer amount of heat generated by all the electronic systems when operating the radar and other systems at full power. This was mitigated somewhat by the rotodome being exposed to the air stream which provided air-cooling by it’s very nature.(3)
Another major problem was the sheer amount of heat generated by all the electronic systems when operating the radar and other systems at full power. This was mitigated somewhat by the rotodome being exposed to the air stream which provided air-cooling by it’s very nature.(3)
- IOTL this was the Nimrod converted from surplus MR airframes
- IOTL with FASS this was two radar scanners
- IOTL the FASS antennas were not exposed to the cooling effects of the airstream and used, along with the other electronics, the Nimrod’s fuel as a ‘heat sink’ which required the fuel tanks to be at least half full to work effectively.
Riain
Banned
Before I bang out for the night and get into the ciders I'd also like to point something else out. This TL gets easily 100 likes a day but so far the only challenges I've received are on the finer details of peripheral things.
Nobody has had a problem with the RAF getting~250 Lightning Mk3 fighter bombers, the TSR2 getting into production, CVA01 being ordered in 1971 or anything else central to the TL.
Why is this?
Is it because this all makes sense? (the ideal solution) Or because nobody could be bothered?(the worst scenario) Or because nobody knows enough to argue?(I'm happy to extol at length on this pet subject)
Nobody has had a problem with the RAF getting~250 Lightning Mk3 fighter bombers, the TSR2 getting into production, CVA01 being ordered in 1971 or anything else central to the TL.
Why is this?
Is it because this all makes sense? (the ideal solution) Or because nobody could be bothered?(the worst scenario) Or because nobody knows enough to argue?(I'm happy to extol at length on this pet subject)
Probably because of the first and third reason, i mean this is a very educational read, even for someone like me who isn’t that knowledgeable about the uk defence