A Second 'Vietnam' in Latin America??

Hmm, you gave me an interesting idea for a TL that allows for this(although it requires a Communist Japan, but that's another story.
 
Hmm. That means after Vietnam, the Soviet Union should've propped up revolts in South America(quite easy actually as there are plenty of brutal dictators to choose from.)

You have to realize the Soviet Union's limitations in this era as well.

1) Brezhnev staked everything on Detente. He was legitimately worried about a Third World War. He did not want to destroy the US or the West like Stalin did, or want worldwide revolution like Khruschev. He wanted peaceful coexistence.

2) The Soviet Union was reliant on the world grain market because it couldn't feed itself.

3) The Communist economies were all in decline, heavily reliant on Western loans and high oil prices to keep them going.

4) The Soviet Union was hemoraging financial funds to keep its current client states going. It subsidized all of its satellites and allies,a nd it was destroying its economy to do so. Adding more parasites to suck at the teet isn't smart.

5) Vietnam had its own unique set of geopolitical features that were to the Communists advantage. That is not easily duplicated elsewhere. The closest the Soviets got to your scenario was supporting the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. The US was easily able to contain Communism there by supporting Honduras and El Salvador, and giving aide to the Contras. The price doing so was probably much less to the US than what the Communists gave the Sandinistas.

6) The geography of the area allows the US to much easier support its allies in South America than the Soviet Union could do so. This is very different than Vietnam where Hanoi shared a direct border with China, and the US was far away from the battlefield.

Supporting armed revolts over South America in an attempt to force a "second Vietnam" is likely to fail, and the consequences of US reprisals at a time when the Soviets were facing their own challenges to their control in Eastern Europe is high. I don't think this is the best strategy for Moscow.
 
Obviously, this would require an earlier TL where the Soviet Union has no grain problems, and can fund South American countries with ease.
 
Top