Texas' problem in the 1830s-60s was that it was:
I have been reading the Empire of the Summer Moon, and as a result have been looking for alternate history related to the Comanches. But I was reading about Secession in Texas, and apparently there was talk of a second Republic. Do you think it could have led to a Second Republic of Texas apart from the Confederacy? And if so, whats the timeline to defeat?
Texas' problem in the 1830s-60s was that it was:
- too rich in land
- too rich in enemies
- too poor in population, and so
- basically undefendable by the Texans
So Texas needed a great power patron, whether the US by the time of the US-Mexican conflict, or the rebels in 1861-65, or (for that matter) the US in regards to Mexico, the French, or both in 1865-67.
If Texas secedes but doesn't join the rebellion directly (as in being part of the Confederacy) but tries for some semi-independent status, they are going to be blockaded on the coast, defeated in New Mexico, and stymied in the Comancheria, and Cortina et al may try and start things up in the Rio Grande Valley, supported by the Texas Unionists of the Hill Country, the US Army, and god knows who else...
Given all else as historical up to April, 1861, Texas is back in the Union by 1865 pretty much whatever route they take...
Best,