A Rising Sun on Tropical Seas (a story from a Battle at Dawn)

A Rising Sun over Tropical Seas
The Fall of Singapore
With the escape of the Evacuation Convoy, the British garrison at Singapore is reduced to 16,000 men, including 2,500 hospitalized wounded (stretcher cases not evacuated). The British only have 9 reduced strength or composite infantry battalions and a few artillery pieces and armored cars left, and have had to retreat to the final defense position aside from a scratch force holding the reservoir. The Japanese however were seriously disorganized by the counterattack on February 10, and suffered very heavy losses in their amphibious craft. Thus the British gain several days while the Japanese funnel their forces and supplies across the Straits of Malacca with a quarter of the planned and assembled boats.

Thus it is not until February 16 that the Japanese are finally ready to launch their final attack. The Imperial Guard leads the way, taking the Pierce and then MacRitchie Reservoir and inflicting 3,000 British casualties while suffering a similar number of Japanese casualties. By early morning of the 17th the British have lost control of the water supply for Singapore, and it is now clear to General Heath that the end has come. A party is sent under flag of truce to the lines held by the Japanese 18th Division, which is rapidly nearing Government House. The surviving British garrison of 12,000, including 5,500 wounded, surrenders shortly after noon on February 17 and with that General Yamashita has secured a major prize for Japan.

The British Malaya Force, which had nearly 135,000 men committed in all, loses nearly 9,000 dead or missing and another 49,000 have been captured (including nearly 9,000 wounded many of whom die quickly in Japanese captivity). But over 60,000 sailors, marines, airmen and soldiers have been evacuated successfully (although over 4,000 die at sea or not long after evacuation) including cadres for the Australian 8th and Indian 11th Divisions, as well as the Indian III Corps. But the loss of the 9th Indian and 18th British infantry divisions, not to mention essentially an entire tactical air force (as far as aircraft are concerned) is a major British disaster. Far more devastating is the severe blow to British prestige that has been inflicted.


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The Fall of the Dutch East Indies
By February 19th, the ABDA surface naval forces have been driven away or destroyed. American, British and Australian air forces have been wrecked and can no longer offer meaningful resistance, and the Dutch have only the survivors of their air forces, their garrison troops, and a few assorted American and British anti-aircraft battalions in Java and a small Australian force in Timor remain.

The shattering Japanese raid on Darwin on February 19 finishes the hopes of any further reinforcement and makes it clear that now Australia itself is in danger. At the same time, the British are suffering defeat in Burma, having just lost an important battle at the Bilin River, and it is increasingly clear that the Japanese will likely take Rangoon within weeks at most. With the British forced to focus what resources that remain in Burma and India, while the Americans and Australians are forced to focus their energies on Australia, New Guinea and Hawaii, there is almost nothing left to help the Dutch.

By March 12, the Japanese have overwhelmed the Dutch and remaining Allied troops and secured the Dutch East Indies. The only remaining resistance is a small Australian commando force that will continue to wage a guerrilla war in the jungle mountains of Timor for months to come.
With the Fall of the Dutch East Indies and Malaya, as well as occupation of Siam and French Indochina, plus the Fall of Rangoon on March 7 and the beginning of a headlong retreat by surviving British and Indian forces in Burma, the the Japanese Centrifugal Offensive has been brought to a victorious conclusion.

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Only the American and Filipino forces in the Philippines are still holding out as of March 13, 1942 and their future is grim. The rest of the great European colonial empires in Southeast Asia have been overwhelmed by an Asian enemy which is now establishing its own empire.

But the Japanese still have several weeks of campaign weather before the Southern Monsoon hits, and a British Empire in disarray in India and Burma.

 
authors note:
The Allies chose to evacuate Singapore, and in so doing lost most of the ABDA surface forces that they could spare which was cemented by the Japanese attack on Darwin (see "Flattops and Flyboys") as well as a pressing need to deal with some German raiders in the Indian Ocean.

Thus the Dutch East Indies fall as soon as the Japanese are able to make their landings, and their landing schedule is not seriously impacted by events thus far. Burma goes as historical as there are no changes in ground forces and the only major change there is no American Volunteer Group (Flying Tigers) to defend Rangoon which means it got hammered pretty hard (unlike OTL).

Coming in late March and early April the Japanese raid into the Indian Ocean as well as some associated operations....some of which did not occur in OTL.
 
So the Indian Ocean and Burma part of the war is going be worst off for now then in OTL hmm wonder if the Brits can shift more forces into the Indian Ocean.
 
So the Indian Ocean and Burma part of the war is going be worst off for now then in OTL hmm wonder if the Brits can shift more forces into the Indian Ocean.

The Japanese are still operating under the same limits... they don't have an unlimited supply of available troops and the Philippines is being a bigger sponge than planned.
 
authors note:
The Allies chose to evacuate Singapore, and in so doing lost most of the ABDA surface forces that they could spare which was cemented by the Japanese attack on Darwin (see "Flattops and Flyboys") as well as a pressing need to deal with some German raiders in the Indian Ocean.

Thus the Dutch East Indies fall as soon as the Japanese are able to make their landings, and their landing schedule is not seriously impacted by events thus far. Burma goes as historical as there are no changes in ground forces and the only major change there is no American Volunteer Group (Flying Tigers) to defend Rangoon which means it got hammered pretty hard (unlike OTL).

Coming in late March and early April the Japanese raid into the Indian Ocean as well as some associated operations....some of which did not occur in OTL.
Not to disagree that I expect the Indies to fall - but the battle of Java was about 35k vs 35k troops, and with all the events that may or may not have made the Allies less demoralized than OTL, did anything different happen there?

I suppose the way the story is written implies the Japanese did deploy all the various task forces to the invasion, thus still outmaneuvring the Dutch and gimping the forces in the Philippines to make it so, but the examples of Singapore and the Philippines might just push the Dutch into holding on a bit longer with the idea help MIGHT be coming or if not, that they could achieve something just by holding out. And if they switch to holding-out in the Philippine vein rather than holding-all as the historical deployment aimed for, they might be able to hold one of Java's ports forfeiting the others rather than trying and failing on all of them.
 
Not to disagree that I expect the Indies to fall - but the battle of Java was about 35k vs 35k troops, and with all the events that may or may not have made the Allies less demoralized than OTL, did anything different happen there?

I suppose the way the story is written implies the Japanese did deploy all the various task forces to the invasion, thus still outmaneuvring the Dutch and gimping the forces in the Philippines to make it so, but the examples of Singapore and the Philippines might just push the Dutch into holding on a bit longer with the idea help MIGHT be coming or if not, that they could achieve something just by holding out. And if they switch to holding-out in the Philippine vein rather than holding-all as the historical deployment aimed for, they might be able to hold one of Java's ports forfeiting the others rather than trying and failing on all of them.

In part it is because the history of the Fall of the Dutch East Indies, as far as ground fighting is concerned, seems to be very limited in sources, so it is hard to find suitable POD. Another part is that there is a major problem in that only about half of the troops are actually Dutch, the rest are Indonesian, and many of the Dutch troops are ill armed and inadequately trained garrison troops used to a police role, not a combat role.

My understanding is that some of the units fought well but overall the Dutch colonial army in the East Indies was no match for the Japanese.

The other part is that the main story line is moving elsewhere and a detailed accounting of the Fall of the DEI (like the Burma campaign) is not part of that.
 
@galveston bay what is the statis on the allies fleet at this point? I am a little confuse with ships that are mention but don't take part in the battles like HMS Mauritius, USS Marblehead, destroyers HMS Isis and Jupiter, and other ships that I can't remember. Also I am seeing a good Eastern Fleet under the command of Admiral Somerville with the battlecruiser HMS Renown as his flagship.
 
@galveston bay what is the statis on the allies fleet at this point? I am a little confuse with ships that are mention but don't take part in the battles like HMS Mauritius, USS Marblehead, destroyers HMS Isis and Jupiter, and other ships that I can't remember. Also I am seeing a good Eastern Fleet under the command of Admiral Somerville with the battlecruiser HMS Renown as his flagship.

Phillips still has the Eastern Fleet, aboard the Renown

and updated OB will be coming by the time the next major naval action takes place
 
The British Navy April 1942
Combat losses, too many commitments, and powerful enemies has left the Royal Navy overstretched and at its relative weakest state during the 2nd World War

British Capital Ships April 1942

British Naval Forces

Home Fleet
BB King George V, Prince of Wales, Anson CV Illustrious

Force Z
BB Duke of York, CV Victorious CVL Argus, Furious

Med Fleet
BB Valiant, Queen Elizabeth (neither in action after a brilliant Italian special operations attack), BC Renown, Repulse

Invasion of Madagascar (April 1942)
BB Nelson, Rodney, CV Formidable, CVE Hermes, Eagle

Eastern Fleet
BB Warspite, CV Indomitable

The majority of destroyers and other escorts are tied down fighting the UBoat threat, but although at nadir in terms of strength, reinforcements are on the way. Luckily the threat of German raiders from Brest has been negated by the Channel Dash (that left 2 of the German ships damaged heavily by mines), the Italians are short of fuel and soon the Japanese will have bigger problems to deal with in the Pacific.
 
Epilogue: Rising Sun in a Tropical Sea
Epilogue
The Japanese continue their offensive against the British until the beginning of May when the Monsoon begins and torrential rains bring ground and air operations to a halt. In Burma, the Japanese defeat both the Anglo-Indian and Nationalist Chinese armies, forcing them to retreat in disarray back to India and China respectively. A Japanese amphibious landing takes the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, securing the eastern approaches to Rangoon (and thus the Japanese naval supply lines) as well as providing a base for air patrols over the Bay of Bengal.

Calcutta and Unrest in India
After covering those landings, the 1st Air Fleet, as well as Army and Navy bombers launch several devastating attacks on the cities of Chittagong and Calcutta that do devastating damage to the port facilities at both cities and result in thousands of civilian casualties. The fires in Calcutta burn for days, and fuel even further the “Quit India Movement” which ties down the Indian Army for months to come during the monsoon. The Indian Government responds by arresting over 150,000 people, hundreds are shot in demonstrations but violence and protests for a brief time cause very serious concern that India will become untenable. However the troops rescued from Singapore, along with the clear effort by the British Government to make great sacrifices to save those troops, enables the British government to eventually raise an Indian Army of over 3 million troops by the end of World War 2.

However just as critically, the monsoon saves India from immediate Japanese invasion and by the dry season in Fall, the Indian Army has recovered successfully. The Japanese and Indian Armies would face each other in Burma for years to come.


Raid on Ceylon
The Japanese Navy in late March and early April sinks over 200,000 tons of Allied shipping in strikes at ports and at sea but finally withdraws by mid month. The Royal Navy, seriously stretched by operations in the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and the Invasion of Madagascar (Operation Ironclad) has only the carrier Indomitable, battleship Warspite, and a few cruisers and destroyers available to face the Japanese and under direct orders from London Admiral Phillips is ordered to avoid action. Thus when the Japanese raid Ceylon in the final stages of their operations they find the harbor empty and lose 24 aircraft for a total of 100 lost in all during the Indian Ocean Operation including those lost to operational causes as well as the fierce defense of Calcutta.

Admiral Yamaguchi is unhappy with the result. In effect two of his carrier airgroups have been gutted for no appreciable strategic gain and he voices his displeasure to Imperial Navy headquarters. More importantly, his carriers do not return to Japan until nearly the end of April and thus miss the chance to respond to an American response that would deeply shock the Japanese.


Finale
The War in Burma will continue for years to come. An airlift is established by the US 10th Air Force that will feed a vital trickle of supplies to the Nationalist Chinese, while Chennault returns to China and by 1943 the US 14th Air Force will begin to effectively support the Chinese against continue Japanese offensives. The War in Burma will continue to be a relative sideshow, but one that sucks in numerous Japanese Army troops and aircraft and a vast amount of British and American resources too. But the road to Tokyo does not run through Burma.
 
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authors notes:
While important to the course of the war I do not intend to discuss in any great detail the war in Burma or China except for how events there relate to other stories in progress or in the works.

I apologize in advance to those who are fans of "The Forgotten Army", the Chindits, Merrill's Marauders and the like. Perhaps another time.

A lot of interesting stuff happened in Burma. I highly recommend further reading.

For the Europeans the loss of their empires to the Japanese would eventually result in the permanent loss. British rule is further discredited by the Bengal Famine, while the Indonesians drive the Dutch out very quickly after the end of the war (when the Dutch return).

But for a brief time the Japanese have achieved their goals and secured their oil, tin, rubber, rice and other raw materials that they need. Now they have to defend it.

Regarding the British Fleet
I just posted the capital ships. The cruisers also matter and I am keeping track of them but against the force the Japanese have available in April 1942 (5 carriers, 2 fast battleships, lots of cruisers and destroyers) the British are hopelessly outnumbered and I am assuming they take the prudent steps they took in OTL. Just more so. So the Cornwall, Dorsetshire, and Hermes survive to meet different fates in this timeline....

The Japanese raids are more costly in aircraft. British air losses are similar in number, but less important strategically as the RAF and its associated partners can far more readily replace them.
 
authors notes:
While important to the course of the war I do not intend to discuss in any great detail the war in Burma or China except for how events there relate to other stories in progress or in the works.

I apologize in advance to those who are fans of "The Forgotten Army", the Chindits, Merrill's Marauders and the like. Perhaps another time.

A lot of interesting stuff happened in Burma. I highly recommend further reading.

For the Europeans the loss of their empires to the Japanese would eventually result in the permanent loss. British rule is further discredited by the Bengal Famine, while the Indonesians drive the Dutch out very quickly after the end of the war (when the Dutch return).

But for a brief time the Japanese have achieved their goals and secured their oil, tin, rubber, rice and other raw materials that they need. Now they have to defend it.

Regarding the British Fleet
I just posted the capital ships. The cruisers also matter and I am keeping track of them but against the force the Japanese have available in April 1942 (5 carriers, 2 fast battleships, lots of cruisers and destroyers) the British are hopelessly outnumbered and I am assuming they take the prudent steps they took in OTL. Just more so. So the Cornwall, Dorsetshire, and Hermes survive to meet different fates in this timeline....

The Japanese raids are more costly in aircraft. British air losses are similar in number, but less important strategically as the RAF and its associated partners can far more readily replace them.

I considered doing a story on the British vs the Japanese but this one is superbly done and I don't want to distract from it

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/april-1942-alternate-indian-ocean.305957/

I look forward to its return
 
Along with General Winter and Colonel Monsoon, there is also a natural limit to the Axis supply lines. With every mile of advance, both Germany and Japan need that much more to supply their armies from home bases. That much more of logistics to safeguard from guerilla attacks. How far can the Japanese go into India and China before the supply well runs dry?
 
Along with General Winter and Colonel Monsoon, there is also a natural limit to the Axis supply lines. With every mile of advance, both Germany and Japan need that much more to supply their armies from home bases. That much more of logistics to safeguard from guerilla attacks. How far can the Japanese go into India and China before the supply well runs dry?

infrastructure (lack there of) is a severe problem moving out of Burma into India and any deeper into China, which along with Chinese partisan activity and not enough troops for the frontage all add up
 
The problem with Japan and China is that it is both big and very populated. OTL even in occupied areas if it was not right at the front lines or on a main supply route then Japanese presence was pretty slim. In 1940 Germany had a population of roughly 80 million (including Austria and Sudentenland), Japan had a population of roughly 73 million. On the other hand the Germans had allies - Italy and later Hungary and Romania, and the captured territories ADDED to the industrial production of Germany overall. Japan had basically no allies, and while they got raw materials in captured areas, very little industrial production. Plus they have a huge area in the Pacific to supply and garrison and a large navy to provide with sailors.
 
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