A Riot in Birmingham and the Death of David Lloyd George: A Timeline from December 1901

[pipisme]

Following the referendum, the prime minister, Arthur Balfour told the press that the people of the United Kingdom had voted against Ireland having Home Rule. In Phoenix Park in Dublin on Sunday 10 August 1913, John Redmond, the leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party, addressed a rally of an estimated fifty thousand people, in Phoenix Park. He told them that Ireland had voted by more than four to one for self government, with its own elected parliament, within the United Kingdom. England would not stop Ireland from winning its freedom.

 

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Arthur Griffith, the president of Sinn Fein, also spoke at the rally. He said that Irish MPs should stop attending the House of Commons at Westminster, instead they should convene their own parliament in Dublin. Newspapers covering the rally reported that Griffith received a more enthusiastic reception than Redmond. Also at the rally, William O'Brien, the leader of the All-for-Ireland-League (AfIL) called for full Dominion status for Ireland, like Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and South Africa had. He agreed with Griffith on Irish MPs withdrawing from Westminster and meeting in Dublin.
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The Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP) met to decide whether to continue attending the Westminster Parliament, or to convene an Irish Parliament in Dublin. They voted by 72 votes to 2 to stay at Westminster. In the early 1870s, a motion that Irish MPs should withdraw from Westminster was passed at a convention of the Home Rule League.

In the month after the referendum, membership of local Sinn Fein clubs more than doubled, and continued to increase in the following weeks and months. The County Cork North by-election caused by the death of Patrick Guiney (AfIL), was held on 4 November 1913. It was won by Patrick's brother, John Guiney for AfIL, on a policy of abstention from Westminster. He was supported by Sinn Fein, He received 67.1% of the vote to 32.9% for the IPP candidate. In the January 1913 general election, Patrick Guiney was elected unopposed.

On Thursday 20 November 1913, an IPP motion which stated that 'This House believes that Home Rule is the democratic will of the Irish people, and His Majesty's Governmemt should introduce legislation to achieve it' was debated. It was defeated by a large majority. Conservative MPs voted against, and IPP and Labour voted in favour. Most Liberal MPs abstained, including all the shadow cabinet, but 27 on the radical wing of the party, voted in favour of the motion,

 

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The book The Great Illusion by Norman Angell, published in 1911, argued that nstions would not go to war because of its disastrous economic consequences. Balfour agreed with this, but wrote that it must not be seen as a plea for peace at sny price. (1)

In 1913, Balfour convinced the Admiral of the Fleet, Lord Fisher, that unrestricted submarine warfare against merchant shipping was inevitable, if war broke out with Germany. Fisher wrote a paper to that effect and his arguments were endorsed by tne First Lord of the Admiralty, Lord Newton. (2)

(1) This was as in OTL. See the book Balfour: Intellectual Statesman by Ruddock F. Mackay, Oxford University Press, 1985.

(2) This was as in OTL as regards Balfour and Fisher. But in OTL , Fisher's 'contention was rejected by Churchill and the Admiralty.' See Mackay.

 

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The South Lanarkshire by-election caused by the death of Sir Walter Menzies (Liberal) was held on 12 December 1913. The percentage votes for each party were as follows (January 2013 general election):
Conservative: 42.0 (49.4)
Liberal: 40.6 (50.6)
Labour: 17.4 (n/a).
Conservative gain from Liberal.

The Tories won the Wycombe by-election on 18 February 1914 caused by the elevation of Sir Charles Cripps (Conservative) to the peerage. The Conservative majority over Liberal was 8.8% in a straight fight. Cripps was elected unopposed in the January 1913 general election.

The Leith Burghs by-election took place on 26 February 1914. It was caused by the appointment of the Liberal MP, Ronald Crauford Munro Ferguson, as Governor-General of Australia. Ferguson was a Liberal Imperialist and a one time confidant of Lord Rosebery. He was opposed to Asquith becoming prime minister in 1908, and to his leadership of the Liberal Party. The percentage votes for each party were as follows:
Conservative: 35.9 (48.8)
Liberal: 34.3 (51.2)
Labour: 29.8 (n/a)
Conservative gain from Liberal.

The Great Grimsby by-election caused by the death of George Doughty (Conservative) was held on 12 May 1914. The percentage votes for each party were as follows :
Conservative: 51.7 (58.3)
Liberal: 48.3 (41.7)
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Conservative majority: 3.4 (16.6)
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The Liberals lost the South Lanarkshire and Leith Burghs by-elections to the Tories because of Labour intervention.

 

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The referendum on Tariff reform, promised by Balfour in the 1913 general election campaign, was held from 15 to 30 May 1914. The question on the ballot paper was: 'Should the British government introduce legislation to protect British industry and strengthen links with the Empire, by Tariff Reform. Yes or No?' The franchise for the referendum was the same as for parliamentary elections.

Most of the Conservative Party were in favour of a 'Yes' vote, though a minority were Free Traders. The Labour and Liberal parties campaigned for a 'No' vote. The Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP) and Sinn Fein, urged voters not to vote in the referendum, as a way of asserting their independence of the British government. But also because they wanted an Irish government to be free to impose tariffs on imports, and they did not want to be seen to be supporting a Tory government policy.

When all the votes had been counted the vote was: 'No: 54.2% 'Yes': 45.8%. A 'No' majority of 8.4%. The 'No' victory was attributed to Tory Free Traders. Turnout was 55.2%. In Ireland it was only 21.6%.

The North-East Derbyshire on 2 June 1914, caused by the death of William Edwin Harvey (Labour) was won by Labour. [1] The North Galway by-election, caused by the resignation of Richard Hazleton (IPP) on 24 May because of health and financial reasons, took place on 21 July 1914. Hazleton stood again in the by-election. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows:
William Thomas Cosgrave (Sinn Fein): 56.8
Richard Hazleton: (IPP): 43.2
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Sinn Fein majority: 13.6% [2]
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In the January 1913 general election, Hazleton was returned unopposed.

Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary was assassinated in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914 by Gavrilo Princep, as in OTL, and events developed as in OTL. German troops invaded Belgium on 3 August 1914. The following day the cabinet unanimously agreed on a British declaration of war against Germany. Earl Kitchener was appointed Secretary of State for War on 5 August. Balfour also moved Arthur Lee from War Secretary to First Lord of the Admiralty in place of Lord Newton, who resigned. A party truce was soon agreed by the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties, though the Conservative government continued in office.

[1] In OTL the by-election was a Conservative gain from Labour.

[2] In OTL Hazleton was elected unopposed in the by-election.

 

[pipisme]

In a speech at Woodenbridge on 5 August 1914, John Redmond, the leader of the IPP, said that it is the duty of Irish men "to defend at all cost the shores of Ireland from foreign invasion...,,,,,This war is undertaken in defence of the highest principles of religion and morality and right, and it would be a disgrace for ever to our country.....if young Ireland confined their efforts to remaining at home to defend the shores from an unlikely invasion.....I say to you, therefore, your duty is twofold.......to account for yourselves as men, not only in Ireland itself, but wherever the firing-line extends, in defence of right and freedom and religion in this war." (1)

Redmond's speech was condemned by Sinn Fein, the Gaelic League and the Irish Republican Brotherhood. In an article in An Claideamh Soluis , Patrick Pearse accused the British government of hypocrisy in going to war to defend the independence of Belgium from German aggression, while refusing to give even Home Rule to Ireland, in spite of the expressed will of the great majority of the Irish people. Ireland will not give any support to Britain in the war.

Recruitment to Irish regiments was slow. By 31 December 1914, it was only about 18,000 men. The Tullamore by-election on 9 December 1914, was a Sinn Fein gain from IPP. (2)

A War Council was formed in November 1914 to advise the cabinet on war strategy. It was chaired by Arthur Balfour (Prime Minister). There were four other Conservative cabinet ministers: Andrew Bonar Law (Chancellor of the Exchequer), Austen Chamberlain (Foreign Secretary), Arthur Lee (First Lord of the Admiralty), and Lord Robert Cecil (India Secretary). The other members were Herbert Henry Asquith, the only Liberal member, Earl Kitchener (War Secretary), Lord Fisher (First Sea Lord), and Lieutenant-General Sir James Wolfe Murray (Chief of the Imperial General Staff). (3)

The war was proceeding as in OTL. On 26 December 1914, Sir Maurice Hankey, the Secretary to the Committee of Imperial Defence, and Secretary to the War Council, sent a memorandum he had written, to Balfour, He wrote that in view of the stalemate on the Western Front, there had to be an offensive elsewhere. "Germany was thus far surviving all the economic pressures. Perhaps she could be weakened by the capture of Constantinople? Three British army corps might become available by the spring, Then the Balkan states might be persuaded to attack the Austrians while were held to their eastern front by the Russians." (4)

(1) This was as in OTL, Redmond's speech is taken from Home Rule and the Irish Question by Grenfell Morton, London: Longman Group Limited, 1980.

(2) In OTL the Tullamore by-election was a Independent Nationalist gain from IPP.

(3) This was as in OTL. It was chaired by Asquith, and the same cabinet posts were represented. Fisher and Murray were also members, and Balfour was the only Conservative member. See Balfour: Intellectual Statesman by Ruddock F. Mackay, Oxford University Press, 1985.

(4) This was as in OTL. See Balfour: Intellectual Statesman .

 

[pipisme]

On 30 December 1914, Balfour replied to Hankey's memorandum. His opinion was that if the Russians lived up to their claimed strength, they would have room for manoeuvre which was not available in the West. "But as for Constantinople, he feared that the Balkan states would squabble over the spoils. Moreover Germany was perfectly indifferent to the fate of her Allies, unless a direct threat to her security was entailed. Such operation, however successful, must be regarded as merely subsidiary. However he wondered if the Austrians could be weakened if British troops went up through Montenegro." [1]

On 13 January 1915, the War Council decided against any operation in the Dardanelles. On 9 February 1915, it decided that British troops should land at Salonika to help the Serbs. By then any operation in the Adriatic had been rejected because of Austrian mines,

A munitions committee of the cabinet was appointed in September 1914. with Bonar Law as chairman.

[1] Quotation taken from Balfour: Intellectual Statesman

 

[pipisme]

In the first half of May 1915 there were articles in The Times about British troops being short of shells. The Liberal Party and Liberal newspapers joined in criticism of the Conservative government for the shell shortage. On 18 May 1915, Balfour appointed the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, the 17th Earl of Derby, as Minister at the head of the new Ministry of Munitions, and promoted Stanley Baldwin from Parliamentary Secretary Board of Trade to Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. [1]

[1] Here is the Wikipedia entry for Derby: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Stanley,_17th_Earl_of_Derby.

 

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In the Gallipoli campaign in OTL, the military strength of the British Empire and France was 315,500, and of the Ottoman Empire was 315,500, including 500 German military advisers. (1) As there was no Gallipoli campaign in this TL, these troops were redeployed elsewhere. Most British Empire forces to the Western Front, and Ottoman troops elsewhere in the Ottoman Empire.

Rupert Brooke did not die of septicaemia on the Greek Island of Sykros in the Aegean Sea, as he did in OTL on 23 April 1915 while on his way to the landings at Gallipoli. In this TL he survives the Great War and continues to write poetry.

British troops did not capture Kut al-Imara in Mesopotamia from the Ottomans. In the Caucasus, Ottoman forces advanced in Georgia in September and October 1915. They captured Batumi and Poti on the Black Sea coast, and Tbilisi on 25 October.

The Earl of Derby had some success in alleviating the shell shortage, but it was stlll cause for concern. Winston Churchill and Charles Masterman led a Liberal campaign, supported by The Times and other newspapers for Balfour to widen his government to include Liberal and Labour ministers. On 4 November 1915, Balfour formed a coalition government with Liberal and Labour ministers.

(1) See the table headed Strength in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallipoli_campaign.

 

[pipisme]

Here is the cabinet appointed on 4 November 1915. All the ministers were Conservative unless stated otherwise:
Prime Minister: Arthur Balfour
Lord Chancellor: Lord Finlay
Lord President of the Council: Lord Lansdowne
Lord Privy Seal: Herbert Asquith (Lib)
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Andrew Bonar Law
Foreign Secretary: Austen Chamberlain
Home Secretary: Walter Long
First Lord of the Admiralty: Arthur Lee
President of the Board of Agriculture and Fisheries: Earl of Selborne
Colonial Secretary: Earl Curzon
President of the Board of Education: Arthur Henderson (Lab)
President of the Health and Local Government Board: Charles Masterman (Lib)
India Secretary: Edwin Montague (Lib)
Chief Secretary for Ireland: Sir Edward Carson
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Stanley Baldwin
Minister of Munitions: Winston Churchill (Lib)
Minister without Portfolio: Lord Robert Cecil (member of House of Commons)
Scotland Secretary: Thomas McKinnon Wood (Lib)
President of the Board of Trade: Ernest Pretyman
War Secretary: Earl Kitchener (Ind)
First Commisioner of Works: Walter Runciman: (Lib).
There were thirteen Conservative ministers, six Liberal ministers, one Labour and one Independent minister ih the new cabinet, The appointment of Churchill as Minister of Munitions attracted much press coverage.

Selected junior ministers appointed 5 and 6 November:
Attorney-General: Sir Frederick Smith
Solicitor-General: Sir George Cave
Paymaster-General: Sir Herbert Samuel (Lib)
Postmaster-General: Arthur Steel- Maitland
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Thomas Macnamara (Lib)
Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Government Chief Whip) : Lord Edmund Talbot ( he was an MP) and Percy Illingworth (Lib).
Under-Secretary of State Foregn Office; Francis Acland (Lib)
Vice President Department of Agriculture and Technical Instruction, Ireland: Thomas Russell (Lib).

 

[pipisme]

Megan Lloyd George was born on 22 April 1902, four months after the death of her father. But she still had a political career as in OTL. In the absence of Lloyd George, Frances Stevenson never became his mistress and remained unknown to history.

Winston Churchill was a dynamic and effective Minister of Munitions. He insisted on new designs for machine guns and mortars, and took a keen interest in the development of the tank. He commissioned Canadian enterprises to fill the gaps in the mass production of guns, caused by US industry being over stretched. He established new factories and galvanised the work force. Monthly output of shells increased by more than ten times.

He came to agreement with the trade unions on dilution, which was the recruitment of unskilled men and women to replace skilled men who had joined the armed forces. He ensured that women munition workers received the same pay as male workers, made provision fot their health, and provided cafeterias which served meals. (1)

In the Caucasus there was stalemate between the armies of the Ottoman Empire and Russia, which lasted for months, perhaps years.

(1) The policies of Churchill were those of Lloyd George as Minister of Munitions, as described in the book Lloyd George: Statesman or Scoundrel by Richard Wilkinson, London and New York : I.B. Tauris and Co, Ltd

 

[pipisme]

There were three by-elections in Ireland in 1915 caused by the death of Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP) MPs. Dublin College Green on 11 June was won by Thomas Farren, Irish Labour. North Tipperary on 17 June was won by Arthur Griffith for Sinn Fein. Dublin Harbour on 1 October was won for Irish Labour by Richard Carroll. All three MPs did not take their seats in the House of Commons. In all three constituencies the previous IPP members were elected unopposed in the general election.

In the Great War, a large number of Russian troops were transferred to the Caucasus Front. A major Austro-German offensive from April 1916 resulted in the capture of Minsk and Riga in May, and Tallinn and Vitebsk (in OTL Belarus) by mid June. Riots in the Petrograd (the Russian capital), supported by the Tsar's troops, broke out on 18 June. Nicholas II was forced to abdicate on 22 June. [1] A provisional government led by Prince George Lvov was formed, with Alexander Kerensky as Minister of War. The Russian summer counter offensive resulted in the recapture of Riga, Minsk, Tallinn, Vitebsk, and Vilnius by September 1916, and Austro-German forces were driven back to the borders of East Prussia and Poland.

[1] The dates of the June 1916 Russian Revolution are in the Gregorian Calendar (New Style).

 

[pipisme]

The cruiser, HMS Hampshire on which the War Secretary, Earl Kitchener, was travelling to Russia from Orkney in early June 1916 on a diplomatic mission, was not hit by a mine. Therefore he was not drowned. In negotiations with the Imperial Russian government, it was agreed that there would be a British offensive in France. Kitchener left Petrograd on 17 June, the day before riots broke out in the city which led to the overthrow of the Tsar.

The Battle of the Somme from July to November 1916 happened as in OTL, with the same result. Also the Armenian genocide was the same as in OTL.

From September 1916 an Austro-German offensive against Russia captured Kyiv, Minsk and Riga by 19 October. On 24 October, Prince George Lvov resigned as prime minister of Russia in favour of Alexander Kerensky.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Following the referendum, the prime minister, Arthur Balfour told the press that the people of the United Kingdom had voted against Ireland having Home Rule. In Phoenix Park in Dublin on Sunday 10 August 1913, John Redmond, the leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party, addressed a rally of an estimated fifty thousand people, in Phoenix Park. He told them that Ireland had voted by more than four to one for self government, with its own elected parliament, within the United Kingdom. England would not stop Ireland from winning its freedom.

So Ireland has no choice but another Rebellion?

 

[pipisme]

The Kerensky Offensive from late October to mid November 1916 was only a limited success. Kyiv and Minsk were recaptured but not Riga. It was stopped by Austro German forces on 16 November.

The stalemate in the Caucasus was broken by a Russian offensive from July 1916, which advanced as far as the Black Sea, and into the Ottoman Empire, with Kars being taken on 5 September. (1). It was halted on 9 September, and there was a stalemate on the Russian Turkish Front.

Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary died on 21 November 1916. He was succeeded by his great nephew Charles, who became Charles I of Austria and Charles IV of Hungary, as in OTL.

(1) For Kars see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kars.

 

[pipisme]

So Ireland has no choice but another Rebellion?

Becaise the Ulster Volunteers had not been founded, neither were the Irish Volunteers. Together with the Irish Republican Brotherhood, the Irish Volunteers played a major part in the 1916 Easter Rising in OTL. Therefore an analogous rising does not place in this TL.

Ther by-election in Ossory on 28 April 1916 caused by the death of the Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP) MP, was won by Sinn Fein. In the 1913 general election, the IPP candidate was elected unopposed.

The by-election in West Cork o n 15 November 1916, caused by the death of the All-for-Ireland League MP, was won by the League against IPP opposition. The winning candidate was supported by Sinn Fein, and he promised not to take his seat in the House of Commons.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Becaise the Ulster Volunteers had not been founded, neither were the Irish Volunteers. Together with the Irish Republican Brotherhood, the Irish Volunteers played a major part in the 1916 Easter Rising in OTL. Therefore an analogous rising does not place in this TL.

Ther by-election in Ossory on 28 April 1916 caused by the death of the Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP) MP, was won by Sinn Fein. In the 1913 general election, the IPP candidate was elected unopposed.

The by-election in West Cork o n 15 November 1916, caused by the death of the All-for-Ireland League MP, was won by the League against IPP opposition. The winning candidate was supported by Sinn Fein, and he promised not to take his seat in the House of Commons.

I doubt being told Home Rule is off the table (because British MPs and voters won't let Ireland rule itself) will prevent the growth of militancy. Or preparations for unrest and violence.

 

[pipisme]

After the stalemate of the winter of 1916/1917 on the Eastern Front, a surprise Austro-German offensive from 12 March smashed through Russian defences and advanced quickly. By 28 April 1917, Kyiv, Minsk, Odessa, and Tallinn were captured. Russian morale was collapsing and Russian soldiers were deserting in their thousands. The government of the Socialist Revolutionary, Alexander Kerensky, was discredited. It was failing to deal with food shortages. Workers soviets in the cities, most importantly Petrograd, were attracting a lot of support.

Lenin returned to Petrograd from Finland on 14 April 1917. On 18 April, as he was speaking to an outdoor meeting in the city, he was shot in the head and died instantly. The assassin escaped in the crowd and was never apprehended. The consensus among historians as that he was a professional soldier. There has been much speculation that he was employed by the Kerensky government.

On 21 April, the Mensheviks entered the government. The new government raised army morale, and on 28 April the Austro-German advance was stopped. In Kiev, it did not cross the River Dneiper.

 

[pipisme]

The by-election in North Roscommon on 3 February 1917, caused by the death of James Joseph O' Kelly, Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP), was won by James Joseph O'Kelly for Sinn Fein. The North Longford by-election on 9 May, caused by the death of John Phillips (IPP), was held for the IPP by Patrick Mclennan. (1) The East Clare by-election caused by the death of Willie Redmond (IPP), who was killed in action in Belgium, was won for Sinn Fein by Sean MacDermott. (2) The Kilkenny City by-election on 10 August 1917, caused by the death of Pat O' Brien (IPP), was won by Thomas McDonagh for Sinn Fein. (3) All these constituencies were won unopposed by the IPP in the 1913 general election.

(1) In OTL this by-election was won by Sinn Fein.

(2) In OTL Eamon de Valera was the winning Sinn Fein candidate in this by- election.

(3) In OTL this by- election was won by William Cosgrave for Sinn Fein.

 

[pipisme]

The Russian offensive from 3 May 1917 advanced slowly against strong Austro-German opposition, but had some success with Kyiv, Minsk, Odessa and Riga all taken. It was halted on 20 June 1917 when the front line went through Latvia, Belarus and western Ukraine. From then onwards there was stalemate on the Eastern Front. There was also stalemate on other fronts.

In the Mesopotamia campaign British troops captured Baghdad from the Ottoman Empire on 18 April 1917. Aqaba was captured by Arab forces from the Ottoman Empire on 10 August 1917. There was growing anti-war sentiment and demands for a negotiated peace. Pope Benedict XV worked for peace, and Charles I wanted to take Austria-Hungary out of the war.

In September 1917, the German Foreign Minister, Baron von Kuhlmann, proposed a separate peace with Britain. At the cabinet meeting on 24 September 1917, the proposal by the Prime Minister, Arthur Balfour, that the ambassadors of France, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States be told that Britain intended to hear what Germany proposed to offer, was agreed. The French Prime Minister, Paul Painleve, was also informed. Germany offered to withdraw from Belgium and give up most of Alsace-Lorraine.

The Kerensky government in Russia was keen on peace with Austria-Hungary and Germany. On Monday 1 October 1917 an armistice was signed on the Eastern Front. The British cabinet met on 2 October and offered Germany peace on condition of their withdrawal from Belgium and all of Alsace-Lorraine. This was accepted by the German government on 4 October. In the following days there were armistices between all the belligerent nations. On 9 October 1917, the Great War ended after three years and two months.