(RE: Japan)
Probably going to have it just be under american occupation like OTL
I think this very unlikely. If the PoD is a more dovish United States doesn't get involved in WWII, we likely have the USA following Vandenberg's idea OTL of allowing Japan a "Sphere of Influence" in Japan and continue to sell it oil and other materials.
If the USA DoWs Japan, it must be remembered that Hitler DoWed the USA within the week. Anglo-American Cooperation is a given and ANZAC would already be in the USA's orbit, to say nothing of the DEI.
So, it's up to you, but the USA stands to gain a great deal in this scenario as opposed to dealing with a very Fragile Japan playing as a regional power.
I am a fluent turkish speaker, love the country to death, and spent a decent part of my life over there, and even I think that is jerking Turkey a bit too much. Cyprus might get recovered, an azeri-turkish union is feasable, and they might try and retake all of Kurdistan, but that is WAYYYYY to much. Türkler araplar değil, turks are not arabs, a secular republic is not going to go over well with the arabs.
I'm not sure myself what to do with the Middle East. Hitler's racial ideology would call for exterminating Arabs before killing off the Poles, and I see Turkey making some attempt to reclaim former Ottoman Territories.
Axis North Africa is going to be a deck of cards beyond Libya, particularly given how little Hitler liked Arabs; if anyone can hold a piece of it its probably Turkey.
I don't disagree that Turkey is wanked. Perhaps the Middle East becomes, then, another area of intense political conflict where former Vichy and British regimes find themselves between colonial masters and Nazi butchers with few good ideas.
But lets be realistic, the soviets will fall apart, but an all Russian post-soviet state will emerge eventually, and most of the autonomous republics will be freed or puppeted, the US will have a puppet government across the ocean from alaska, but a semi stable government will eventually form
That's really not realistic at all, either.
The last thing Nazi Germany wants is a unified threat on its border. It will be busily waging ongoing war, even nuclear war, against any attempt to unify "Russia" and surely demand "tribute" to deliberately weaken whatever is left.
Now, Russia is a big place and I don't disagree that China/USA or Japan could wind up puppeting a piece of the action. But this is likely to be a place of intrigue rather than a unified power of any sort.
I might also add that Unified Russia is likely to acquire nuclear weapons and given its abuse may very well start a nuclear war against Nazi Germany. It's pretty obvious why Germany has to keep Russia down, and a cold war where Germany makes the concession to allow there to be a unified Russian Remnant is close to folding.
Its going to be a clusterfuck many sided civil war with nationals, fascists, commies, republicans, monarchists, a british remanant, muslims, and pan nationalists all fighting for control.
India's situation OTL was solved without turning into a complete basketcase for decades. A Hindu-Muslim split might happen, but there is the added pressure that India is now in a particularly dangerous neighborhood. A divided India isn't a power but a battleground...and I think India makes more sense as a regional player than a battleground.
Except for maybe some of the lower states might go integralist, like brazil or argentina
The USA can be counted upon to coup anyone who doesn't toe the line, up until the Axis gets in a Cuban Missile Crisis analog. And given Nazi Germany's likely distrust of Jewish Science, that's not happening until the 1970s or later.
Boers will take back over, and there will be many para fascists and british democrats rioting, and fighting for control
Again, this is a short term situation in a long term view. I don't doubt its possible for unfinished business to appear, but in the long haul this is going to be done in a couple of years. And OTL's solution--of abusing the natives instead of each other--is an option again.
I actually think that Afrikaaner White Supremacy offers an interest ideological choice for South Africa. It could be very possible for South Africa to align with Germany, and I think that a more interesting choice than simply turning into a jigsaw puzzle.
Generalplan ost will probably be cut back a bit, maybe an assissination of hilter allows Rosenberg to take power and he is a bit more sane than the rest, allowing for some local autonomy and loosening up of the race policy
Rosenberg was basically calling for wiping out all Poles and Czechs, as well as a highly exploitative regime to abuse Russians. This is not a guy who is going to take the opportunity to ignore the "Polish Question" or really allow for much autonomy. More than anything, Rosenberg is damn sure that Germany is on top and gets what it wants.
You've chosen an ideologue to replace Hitler. Perhaps war is waged more competently, but can the outcome really vary much?