Right now me and a couple of other modders are beginning to put plans together for a Reich American Cold War mod for the upcoming game, East vs West. Right now, though, we are having a lot of trouble deciding on a timeline, what would be realistic for the Axis and Allies to hold, what would allow the countries to be roughly evenly matched? This is a very debatable topic, so I want to get it going now, the plan for the mod is to get a semi-realistic campaign between 1945 and 1991 for the two countries with tons of events and the like. I know butterflies would be everywhere, but what are some possible crisis that could happen in a scenario where Germany wins the second world war.
Even better, is there a realistic tripolar world that could emerge (liberal democracy, socialist, fascist) that could emerge post ww1?
Some answers which are not entirely awful (though not great):
Assume that Britain doesn't pull out from Compass to help Greece; Italian NAfrica falls, the DAK is not built up in N Africa, and the immediate result of Barbarossa is a Soviet coup against Stalin in Nov 41 that results (regardless of who wins) in a Brest-Litovsk-like armistice with Germany that cedes... well... I dunno, everything west of the Urals is a bit much, but Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States, and the rest of Poland to Germany. I guess you could extend that to the Donets, but probably not to the Don.
At that point, Germany will offer a ceasefire to Britain which Churchill (handwavium here!) accepts, as the British Empire is intact and has actually expanded at the expense of Italy. Germany has not yet declared war on the US, so that's not an issue.
Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands are occupied by Germany.
Vichy still exists. Italy controls Albania, Montenegro, some of modern Kosovo, and southern Serbia, though Mussolini probably falls after his disastrous war outcome to be replaced by another pro-German .
Bulgaria has another chunk of Serbia, northern Serbia is German-occupied, and an ur-Croatia is an Axis state. Romania may have some minor expansion into ex-USSR territory.
Spain and Portugal are neutrals, but Axis- and NATO-leaning ones respectively.
Assume that all French African colonies are Free French, as is Madagascar, after allied liberation, while Italian Somaliland is British, and Abyssinia is a British client-state.
Turkey is a neutral and would really like everyone to just go away. Which is unlikely.
The Pacific is up to you really.
If you want a stronger Axis, assume that Japan delivers a short note to the State Department*, then a third wave of air attacks at Pearl butterflied away much of the opening USN carrier raids through a lack of fuel, and that even though some IJN ships ran out of oil on the way home they were all eventually recovered. The invasion of Port Moresby goes ahead without a Coral Sea; however, at Midway the US fields 4 carriers, but, hit with handwavium torpedoes, they are all sunk, after which a Pacific armistice is signed ceding the Philippines, Korea, French Indochina, Burma, Malaya, Singapore, the DEI, the Solomons, Marianas, Wake, and Midway, and New Guinea to Japan.
If you want a weaker Axis, assume that the UK, not fighting in the Western Desert, put enough tanks and aircraft into Malaya and Singapore to stop the Japanese attack rather abruptly, and in fact counterattacked to ultimately roll on through Thailand and Indochina. Without victory over Singapore, the invasion of the DEI was unsuccessful, and the naval battles there (in the face of significant land-based air) result in damage to some IJN carriers.
There is skirmishing for a bit, but again there is no Coral Sea (because Port Moresby is not a reasonable objective without control of the DEI) until the USN comes out to defend Midway, resulting in a less one-sided defeat for the IJN.
With fuel oil and ships critically short and no hope of acquiring more, after a lot of assassination and suicide, Japan sues for peace, returning the Philippines, withdrawing from Korea and China, and agreeing to pay indemnities for starting the war.
Free France controls Indochina, Syria and Lebanon. Britain retains India, Burma, Malaya, and Singapore. Australia administers New Guinea. The US retains the Philippines and acquires the Marianas.
In the aftermath of the war, you'll need to look at how colonialism does - if the Pacific is a Japanese victory, then the British Empire will cease to be, particularly as India partitions. If Japan is defeated, Indian transition to a Dominion is a possibility, as a Commonwealth is a more viable political bloc. Free France is a colonial empire without a homeland, when there is both client-France and occupied France - it may end up feeling like East Germany a bit. It will probably be able to retain FIC and Algeria for the time being though.
Korea is unlikely to be partitioned assuming a Soviet defeat by Germany.
If Japan wins, then China will still fight on - although ultimately Japanese air power will be decisive, leading to an enlarged Japanese client state along much of the coast with a Japanese Taiwan. If Japan loses, then KMT China is a given (without a strong USSR to support Mao), with a Chinese Taiwan.
In any event, in 1950 the US, UK, Reich, and USSR should all be nuclear powers.
*Your embargo is mean, so we're now at war.
- Hirohito
