A realistic CSA timeline

If anything I bent over backwards giving the CSA a better tax system starting in 1869.

5/1864 Hood doesn't backstab Johnston at Casseville and attacks as ordered. Johnston is able to stall Sherman long enough that Atlanta doesn't fall until after the election. Little Mac wins the election.
12/64-1/65 Johnston puts his army in front of Shermans and is able to stave off defeat until Little Mac takes office
2/65 Little Mac replaces "hard war" Lincoln men such as Grant and Sherman with "soft war" generals such as Banks. Thinking himself a great general he interferes with fighting going on. Due to his bungling the Union begins retreating everywhere.
11/66 The elections result in large numbers of Peace Democrats The war ends with a treaty that allows free passage down the Mississippi and the Union winds up holding TN and WV.
1/67 with thousands of CSA soldiers returning home crops start being planted over the CSA. The unemployment rate soars in CSA cities not because there is a lack of work to do but that there is a lack of money to pay people. Many of the new jobs in the cities involve cleaning up all the rubble the war caused.
2/67 Some of the rails reopen as track is relaid. Most of the track comes from canabilizing the system. Mostly from areas already cut off and remote.
3/67 Food prices start dropping as hoarders start open up their storage bins to sell before the price crashes when the crops come in. Prices are still VERY HIGH as compared to before the war. The price of salt starts dropping quickly as the salt from Saltville starts being delivered elsewhere.
5/67 The notes come due and the CSA has nowhere near enough money to pay them. The CSA "renegotiates" (IOW take this deal or get nothing) the notes extending them to 2 years and reduces the debt to 75% par. This causes a panic. Inflation soars again to 30% a month.
6/67 As no one will borrow money to the CSA and their is little money to tax the CSA finances its government with 80% fiat currency and 20% taxes. Inflation soars to 40% a month.
7/67 The first crop that the CSA has in peace time comes in. Due to lack of capital it is far poorer than 1860 but it is better than any year post-1862. It now takes about $10,000 CSA to = $1 USA and everyone who can will exchange CSA money for USA. PCI of the Confederacy is equal to that it had in 1810.
1868-1869 With Lee too ill Joesoph Johnston is elected president. His advisors tell him the only thing that will save the confederacy's finances is a direct tax. Johnston pushes hard for the amendment and the amendment passes and Johnston quickly has congress pass a 1% tax per year on slaves, a 10% tax on slave sales, a 15% tax in kind on cotton and tobacco. Inflation drops drastically. Planters start replacing tobbacco and cotton with foodstuffs which aren't taxed helping prevent previous food shortages.
1870 CSA starts really recovering. PCI is equal to that of 1820. UR dropping quickly as money starts to have some worth.For the first time since 1867 the CSA can sell bonds but at high 11.5% a month with inflation still running 10% a month that is a real rate of about 20% a year. The CSA borrows a little money to establish credit.
1872 After importing railroad equipment from the UK the CSA finally has rails as good as it had in 1845.
1874 Hood elected president.
1876 Northern Businessmen start buying assets in the CSA. CSA virtually becomes a US colony slowly as everything of value is bought by US business men.
 
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I don't think the U.S. would begin retreating everywhere just because McClellan replaces Grant and Sherman with less ruthless men. The Confederacy at this point was in trouble--Vicksburg had fallen and Gettysburg had gutted the Army of Northern Virginia.
 
I don't think the U.S. would begin retreating everywhere just because McClellan replaces Grant and Sherman with less ruthless men. The Confederacy at this point was in trouble--Vicksburg had fallen and Gettysburg had gutted the Army of Northern Virginia.

True, but I think this is their best chance. Besides I had McClellan interfering a lot and screwing up. It is the best thing I could come up with.
 
True, but I think this is their best chance. Besides I had McClellan interfering a lot and screwing up. It is the best thing I could come up with.

Given McClellan's uber-caution, I think it'd be more realistic that he appoints like-minded generals and the advance slows to a crawl, giving the Confederacy time to recover.
 
Well, since you just posted, you can re-edit the TL.

That's easier said then done, since the "slow to a crawl" would likely extend the war considerably and that would require a big rewrite.
Not really as the only thing of importance of it is the Union giving up in 1866. A stalemate is likely to do that as well.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
When McClellan takes command the war is already in the endgame. Lee is shut up in the siege of Petersburg, Hood has been effectively destroyed etc.

Also, it's far more likely the CSA would have become a dependency of the UK and part of the "informal empire". US and UK business interests would likely vie for investment in the CSA.
 
When McClellan takes command the war is already in the endgame. Lee is shut up in the siege of Petersburg, Hood has been effectively destroyed etc.

Also, it's far more likely the CSA would have become a dependency of the UK and part of the "informal empire". US and UK business interests would likely vie for investment in the CSA.

Yeah, but if anyone can screw it up it is McClellan. The UK is far too busy in its actual empire to be buying up anything. I doubt the UK would buy much of anything. It is getting plenty of cotton from Eygpt and India and has largely seen the Western Hemisphere as the US "sphere of influence".
 
12/64-1/65 Johnston puts his army in front of Shermans and is able to stave off defeat until Little Mac takes office
2/65 Little Mac replaces "hard war" Lincoln men such as Grant and Sherman with "soft war" generals such as Banks. Thinking himself a great general he interferes with fighting going on. Due to his bungling the Union begins retreating everywhere.

Before the Twentieth Amendment in 1933, the presidential inauguration took place on March 4th, not January 20th.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
Yeah, but if anyone can screw it up it is McClellan. The UK is far too busy in its actual empire to be buying up anything. I doubt the UK would buy much of anything. It is getting plenty of cotton from Eygpt and India and has largely seen the Western Hemisphere as the US "sphere of influence".

Once the ACW was over the UK returned to buying US cotton again. It was cheaper than Egyptian cotton. This in turn caused a major financial crises in Egypt that began the chain of events that saw the UK taking Egypt into the empire in 1882.

The world of the 19th century was extremely globalised and the UK were pushing free trade and capitalism everywhere (vs the US which went protectionist once the free traders of the south were ousted from power).

An independent CSA would become a major global trader exporting cotton, tobacco and eventually oil. The US meanwhile needs to cope with the loss of a major internal source of cotton and a loss of competitiveness in the textile sector, the largest manufacturing sector after wheat milling.
 
Once the ACW was over the UK returned to buying US cotton again. It was cheaper than Egyptian cotton. This in turn caused a major financial crises in Egypt that began the chain of events that saw the UK taking Egypt into the empire in 1882.

The world of the 19th century was extremely globalised and the UK were pushing free trade and capitalism everywhere (vs the US which went protectionist once the free traders of the south were ousted from power).

An independent CSA would become a major global trader exporting cotton, tobacco and eventually oil. The US meanwhile needs to cope with the loss of a major internal source of cotton and a loss of competitiveness in the textile sector, the largest manufacturing sector after wheat milling.

The US is much closer and could probably outbid it for that reason alone. It certainly has more interest in the rail lines which can actually hook up with the US. At the very least it will dominate in railroads, banking, general merchandice and mining. It is far closer and far more interested in its back yard than GB would be. GB has its own empire to invest in. If it gets too involved it risks war with the US which is just going to get more dangerous over time.
 
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11/66 The elections result in large numbers of Peace Democrats The war ends with a treaty that allows free passage down the Mississippi and the Union winds up holding TN and WV.

In the given scenario the Union would most likely keep North Virginia (north of the Rappahannock River) as the US State of Virginia with its capital in Alexandria and Francis H. Pierpoint as its first governor, if for no other reason than not having to move the US capital north (since a capital located just across a river from a potentially hostile neighboring country would be untenable in the long run, a government and legislature cannot act freely within gunshot range of possible enemy snipers and artillery) and at least parts of Arkansas as well.
 
In the given scenario the Union would most likely keep North Virginia (north of the Rappahannock River) as the US State of Virginia with its capital in Alexandria and Francis H. Pierpoint as its first governor, if for no other reason than not having to move the US capital north (since a capital located just across a river from a potentially hostile neighboring country would be untenable in the long run, a government and legislature cannot act freely within gunshot range of possible enemy snipers and artillery) and at least parts of Arkansas as well.

Most likely and quite possibly large parts of Mississippi and Louisiana as well (Probably the New Orleans area at least). I wanted to cut the South some breaks to show how crappy it is likely to be even with some big breaks. This is about the best case realistic scenario for the CSA.
 
Most likely and quite possibly large parts of Mississippi and Louisiana as well (Probably the New Orleans area at least). I wanted to cut the South some breaks to show how crappy it is likely to be even with some big breaks. This is about the best case realistic scenario for the CSA.

I share the doubts of some who believe that even a McClellan admin (if he chose to fight on) could fail to win the war by the 1866 mid-terms. But putting that aside,

A US that gives up on the Civil War is a nation that has decided that it is not worthwhile to hold on to states that (via secession and open war) have shown an unwillingness to remain part of the Union. Therefore, I doubt they'd want to hold on to any of those territories. They might make noise over keeping Eastern Tennessee, which actually was pro-Union, but I doubt they'd actually be willing to re-start the war over it.

Besides, the timeline calls for McClellan to be President, and peace forced upon him by Peace Democrats. The Peace Democrats certainly wouldn't be interested in forcing secessionist areas to remain in the Union. Furthermore, Peace Democrats expressly want peace; I doubt they'd be interested in planting the seeds for another war, which a peace on the basis you describe inevitably would.
 
Most likely and quite possibly large parts of Mississippi and Louisiana as well (Probably the New Orleans area at least). I wanted to cut the South some breaks to show how crappy it is likely to be even with some big breaks. This is about the best case realistic scenario for the CSA.

With control over the Mississippi, the U.S. could perhaps browbeat Texas back into the Union. After all, the successful taking of Vicksburg supposedly cut off Texas's beef and soldiers from supporting the rest of the Confederacy. With control of the entire Mississippi valley, you might be able to force Mississippi and Louisiana back in.

The Confederacy would be whatever the South holds at this point, which would be mostly in the east.
 
With control over the Mississippi, the U.S. could perhaps browbeat Texas back into the Union. After all, the successful taking of Vicksburg supposedly cut off Texas's beef and soldiers from supporting the rest of the Confederacy. With control of the entire Mississippi valley, you might be able to force Mississippi and Louisiana back in.

The Confederacy would be whatever the South holds at this point, which would be mostly in the east.

Most likely, but I wanted to make this a best case realistic scenario. I don't think that it is impossible, not with Little Mac as POUS.
 
I share the doubts of some who believe that even a McClellan admin (if he chose to fight on) could fail to win the war by the 1866 mid-terms. But putting that aside,

A US that gives up on the Civil War is a nation that has decided that it is not worthwhile to hold on to states that (via secession and open war) have shown an unwillingness to remain part of the Union. Therefore, I doubt they'd want to hold on to any of those territories. They might make noise over keeping Eastern Tennessee, which actually was pro-Union, but I doubt they'd actually be willing to re-start the war over it.

Besides, the timeline calls for McClellan to be President, and peace forced upon him by Peace Democrats. The Peace Democrats certainly wouldn't be interested in forcing secessionist areas to remain in the Union. Furthermore, Peace Democrats expressly want peace; I doubt they'd be interested in planting the seeds for another war, which a peace on the basis you describe inevitably would.

The Union army is SITTING on TN and WV already. There is no way for the CSA to get it back. By this time any CSA army trying anything in TN easily gets kicked to the curb and it would be the South restarting the war if that happened. If the Democrats are willing to lose a state that is clearly already won they get curbstompped in the next election, particularly if the CSA restarts the war.
 
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