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This is a PoD that I've proposed earlier in another thread, it was criticized as unlikely, but now I think I've stumbled into a decent way to make it plausible as part of another TL.

Background: Quebec and Nova Scotia colonies join the American revolution. As a result, the USA get Canadian colonies and territories in 1781, have Federalist Administrations up to 1808, then expansionist Democratic ones, build a rather good military, kick French butt in the French-American War, get French Caribbean colonies in 1800, buy Lousiana territory and Hispaniola in 1803, and they kick British butt in the War of 1812 (US Army and militias defeat the British armies in the northern territories and landing attempts again and again and US Navy makes a decent performance in the Caribbean). Moreover, Britain gets busy trying to rebuild an American colonial empire in southern South America.

As a result, Britain is kinda more overstretched and less military successful in the tailend of Napoleonic Wars. Napoleon still goes down in 1813-14 as the result of the failed invasion of Russia. However, when a deadlock takes shape in the Congress of Vienna as a result of the Polish-Saxon Crisis, Prussia and Russia don't back down when Britain, France, and Austria refuse their plan, and Britain and Austria declare war. Talleyrand persuades Louis XVIII to make France join Britain and Austria, even as this war and the restored Bourbon monarchy grow more and more unpopular within France.

Making advantage of the overwhelming unpopularity of the Bourbon regime, Napoleon returns to France from his banishment on Elba. The French Army, already making a lackluster performance fighting for an unpopular regime, and the French populace quickly switch their allegiance to him and Napoleon enters Paris after escaping from Elba, beginning his "Two Hundred Days" rule. The resurgence of Napoleon turns the European conflict in a three-way war, as Britain and Austria fight Prussia and Russia, and both sides fight Napoleonic France.

Joachim Murat, King of Naples, makes an alliance with the Russo-Prussians (even if after Napoleon’s return he wavers between an alliance with Napoleonic France or with the Russo-Prussians) and declares war on Austria, in an attempt to save his throne, sparking the Neapolitan War.

Prussian Army makes a good performance thanks to its recent reforms, Russian Army deploys overwhelming numbers, this and the effective lack of French support doom Austria. Prussians decisively defeat Austria someplace in Bohemia, Russians decisively defeat Austria someplace in Hungary. The Kingdom of Naples defeats the Austrians someplace in northern-central Italy. Vienna and Buda-Pest are occupied by the Russo-Prussians and Austria is forced to beg for peace. Russo-Prussian forces defeats British-Hanoverian troops someplace in Hanover and occupy it.

Britain is war-weary and kinda overstretched to fight two and later three wars at once, plus the ongoing colonial war in southern South America. Without the presence of the Prussians ITTL, at the Battle of Quatre-Bras and Waterloo, Napoleon inflicts a decisive defeat to the British and their Dutch-Belgian allies and occupies Belgium.

Mounting defeats in Europe and the Americas and economic hardship trigger widespread Luddite riots in Britain that are barely suppressed and bring down the pro-war Tory government. A Whig government takes over, promises economic and political reforms, and makes a bid for peace. Napoleon skillfully maneuvers against Russo-Prussian armies for several months and inflicts them several indecisive defeats but is eventually crushed by overwhelming numbers someplace in northeastern France. The Crown Prince of Prussia, Frederick William, takes part in the last decisive battle and gains an enduring sense of Romantic loyalty to the cause of German unification. Napoleon abdicates again and spends his last years of life as a prisoner of Russia.

The Peace of Ghent between Britain and America concedes North America to the USA, which annex Rupert’s Land, North-Western Territory, Labrador, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and British Guiana.

The Congress of Vienna reconvenes, with the balance of power in Europe having substantially tilted towards victorious Russia and Prussia as the dominant parties.

Russia annexes Finland, the Duchy of Warsaw, the Grand Duchy of Posen, Galicia, Bukovina, Moldavia (Bessarabia had been already annexed in 1812) and Wallachia (the latter two nominally Ottoman vassal states, but the Russians shall proceed to evict the Ottomans with the assent of the other powers in no time).

Prussia keeps West Prussia and annexes Rhineland-Westphalia, Hannover, Saxony, and Bohemia-Moravia.

The Russo-Prussians are initially at a loss about what to do with France, which has shown itself to be politically unstable and hostile under the Bourbon and Napoleon alike. They have got rather disllusioned with the Bourbon restoration but certainly they don't want to keep Napoleon in charge, either. Eventully they decide to make the senior line of the Bourbon renounce the throne and put the Orleans line on it with a reaffirmation of the Charter of 1814, in the hope the new dynasty may be more stable and popular. Alternatively, they decide to keep young Napoleon II on the throne.

Since France sided against the victors, and Napoleon was more successful, France gets an harsher peace. The provinces of Alsace and Lorraine are carved out to re-create the Kingdom of Burgundy which is given to the former King of Saxony. French Flanders go to Netherlands, Corsica goes to Sardinia-Piedmont.

A strong Kingdom of Netherlands is set up under the House of Orange and includes the Seven United Netherlands, Austrian Netherlands, French Flanders, and Limburg. Since the Duchy of Luxemburg is deemed to be a German land, it is set up under the joint rule of Netherlands and Prussia.

The victorious powers are equally initially at a loss about to do with Italy, but certainly they don't want it to be an Austrian or French playground. Eventually they decide to build some strong Italian states, as a bulwalk against France and Austria, diminishing the political fragmentation, and since Murat proved to be a good ally against Austria (not that much trustworthy against Napoleon, but he didn't anything really substantial to help him, either), they make his kingdom one of the main Italian states.

Joachim Murat keeps the throne of Naples (although Sicily remains a separate kingdom under the Bourbon dynasty) and gains Lombardy and Veneto. Tuscany, Parma, and Modena are united as the Kingdom of Etruria under the Bourbon-Parma dynasty. Savoy-Piedmont includes Nice, Savoy, Piedmont, Corsica, and Sardinia as the Kingdom of Sardinia. Since Orthodox Russia and Protestant Prussia don't care as much about the territorial integrity of the Papal States, Ferrara and Bologna are given to Etruria and Ravenna, Romagna and Marche are given to Murat to build a land connection between his northern and southern possessions. The Pope keeps Umbria and Latium.

Austria is made to renounce its Imperial title and becomes the Kingdom of Austria and Hungary. It loses Bohemia-Moravia, Galicia, Bukovina, and all Italian possessions, but keeps the rest.

What do think of this settlement, about the future evolution of Europe ? What does it think more likely, a Louis Phillipe or Napoleon II France ? How much would the unifications of Germany and Italy be accelerated, with these strong Prussia and strong liberal Naples (I take as the most likely butterfly that Murattian Naples becomes the leader of Italian unification ITTL) ? I expect that with Prussia on the rise and Austria diminished, the German Confederation would get to resemble something more of a working confederal political unity, but I dunno how much. I expect this Russia to go on a rampage against Turkey immediately afterwards, but how many Russian gains are plausible, before defeated and war-weary Britain is roused to a rematch ? Surely Russian Moldavia and Wallachia, and an independent Greece as a Russian vassal, but how large ? Is this Austria, diminished and effectively kicked out of Germany and Italy, and with Russia rampant in the Balkans, effectively doomed (Hungary goes its way and German Austria is sweeped in German unification), or it has some future, perhaps as a Habsburg Greater Hungary being a Russian proxy in the Western Balkans ? How early would Britain, France, and Austria seek a rematch against the Russia-Prussia-Naples alliance and who would side with them (Netherlands ? Spain ? Denmark and/or Sweden ?) and aganst them ? Is it possible that this PoD would butterfly Russia and Prussia into becoming more liberal (e.g. Alexander I does implement a constitution and serf emancipation, prussia grants an early constitution followig his example) ? How would this TL affect the liberal-national revolutions of the 1820s, 1830s, and 1840s ? What's the likely future of Netherlands and Belgium ITTL ?
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