WI The 2002 euro banknote rollout was limited to France and Germany initially?
The current Greek debt crisis underscores one glaring fault of eurozone ambition: rapid expansion without a contingency plan for the tottering Mediterranean economies. I can see why the Germans and the British wanted Greece on board because of tourism. In hindsight, the inclusion of Greece was a risky gamble that failed in the end. Ditto Portugal, which is another favorite holiday spot for Britons and Europeans. Maybe inclusion of the poorer countries in the euro currency zone was convenient for the most wealthy European nations. This convenience came with a steep price that France, Germany, and Britain only now understand.
Let's say this were to happen:
1999: Many European currencies are pegged to the euro (i.e. the states included in the OTL 2002 rollout). France and Germany prepare to roll out banknotes in 2002 or even earlier. The countries that are pegged to the euro but not participating in the banknote rollout will not be able to denominate their debt in the new currency until the original ECB (Frankfurt) fiscal disciplines are met.
An ATL currency rollout:
2000 -- 2002: France and Germany roll out the common currency (banknotes and coins) between their countries.
[EDIT:] 2000 -- 2003: Within a year (or at the same time) as the French-German rollout the Netherlands, Finland, Austria, and Ireland join the euro currency. [thanks Monty Burns]
2009 -- 2012: Sweden, satisfied that the currency is stable, hops on.
2010: Greece has the economic meltdown at the same time as OTL. This time, the ECB and Germany do not have to intervene since the drachma is pegged to the euro but Greece's sovereign debt is still denominated in Greek currency. Greece defaults and requests aid from the eurozone. The Germans give some loans in combination with the IMF etc., but remind the Greeks that their default has pushed back their participation in the currency union for some years. [EDIT:] Since the Germans don't have to bail out Greece to protect the eurozone as in OTL, their debt relief to Greece is much smaller than a trillion dollar giveaway. [thanks vitemajoren]
2010 -- 2015: The ECB permits Italy, Spain, and Portugal to dual circulate the euro and national currencies. National debt is still denominated in national currencies. Italy, Spain, and Portugal set a ten-year self imposed deadline to rein in their national economies to ECB debt limits. The ECB agrees and provisionally sets their full eurozone entry for 2020 -- 2025.
What happens next? Could a limited eurozone benefit the wealthy European nations?
The current Greek debt crisis underscores one glaring fault of eurozone ambition: rapid expansion without a contingency plan for the tottering Mediterranean economies. I can see why the Germans and the British wanted Greece on board because of tourism. In hindsight, the inclusion of Greece was a risky gamble that failed in the end. Ditto Portugal, which is another favorite holiday spot for Britons and Europeans. Maybe inclusion of the poorer countries in the euro currency zone was convenient for the most wealthy European nations. This convenience came with a steep price that France, Germany, and Britain only now understand.
Let's say this were to happen:
1999: Many European currencies are pegged to the euro (i.e. the states included in the OTL 2002 rollout). France and Germany prepare to roll out banknotes in 2002 or even earlier. The countries that are pegged to the euro but not participating in the banknote rollout will not be able to denominate their debt in the new currency until the original ECB (Frankfurt) fiscal disciplines are met.
An ATL currency rollout:
2000 -- 2002: France and Germany roll out the common currency (banknotes and coins) between their countries.
[EDIT:] 2000 -- 2003: Within a year (or at the same time) as the French-German rollout the Netherlands, Finland, Austria, and Ireland join the euro currency. [thanks Monty Burns]
2009 -- 2012: Sweden, satisfied that the currency is stable, hops on.
2010: Greece has the economic meltdown at the same time as OTL. This time, the ECB and Germany do not have to intervene since the drachma is pegged to the euro but Greece's sovereign debt is still denominated in Greek currency. Greece defaults and requests aid from the eurozone. The Germans give some loans in combination with the IMF etc., but remind the Greeks that their default has pushed back their participation in the currency union for some years. [EDIT:] Since the Germans don't have to bail out Greece to protect the eurozone as in OTL, their debt relief to Greece is much smaller than a trillion dollar giveaway. [thanks vitemajoren]
2010 -- 2015: The ECB permits Italy, Spain, and Portugal to dual circulate the euro and national currencies. National debt is still denominated in national currencies. Italy, Spain, and Portugal set a ten-year self imposed deadline to rein in their national economies to ECB debt limits. The ECB agrees and provisionally sets their full eurozone entry for 2020 -- 2025.
What happens next? Could a limited eurozone benefit the wealthy European nations?
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