A Question. . .

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I am just now watching a documentary called Hitler's Britain. It mentioned, among other things, that Russia was almost invaded in May 1941 instead of June 1941, because of the Yugoslavia and Greek campaigns. If Germany had invaded in May, could they have won in 6 weeks, as Hitler predicted? I suspect not.
 
I doubt that. Germans would be bit better on this scenario but Russians still would win them but they might suffer more.
 
Not the first time this has been suggested; what it turns on, practically speaking, is the state of Russian roads at the time. The spring thaws- the rasputitsa- convert most of them to rivers of mud, and it is only around midsummer they become really viable again.

That is the basis for the counter- claim that the German army would not have moved any sooner than it actually did, even without the Mediterranean to worry about.

It would actually have been counterproductive to do so- the ground was in no state to support a war of movement, and there would have been significant advantage to the defender, blitzkrieg would be harder and less practical, the lids wouldn't have closed on the cauldrons (kesselschlacht, not cookery), and, in general, worth waiting.

Hitler's prediction belongs alongside "we have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten edifice will come crashing down"; you can just about see why he might think so, but also that there is daylight showing between his ideas and reality.
 
They could have reach Moscow and conquer it.
but they not winning the War,
The Soviet would just mobilize everyone and trow against the germans.
Means the Wehrmacht forces would be outnumber between 1:2 even to 1:4 !
and harsh Russian winter is coming...

this here would be replay of Napoleon disastrous Russian campaign.
were he cross with 450,000 men the Russian border and come back with 18,000 survivors...
 
Van Creveld in one of his first books said that the main reason why the invasion was late was because the transport didn't arrive until late, some first echelon divisions didn't get their trucks until 10 days before the start date.
 
I am just now watching a documentary called Hitler's Britain. It mentioned, among other things, that Russia was almost invaded in May 1941 instead of June 1941, because of the Yugoslavia and Greek campaigns. If Germany had invaded in May, could they have won in 6 weeks, as Hitler predicted? I suspect not.

The Balkans Campaign is often mentioned as the reason for the delay. I have also read that it had been a very wet Spring in the East in 1941, which made conditions on the ground even worse than they would normally have been.
 
It's possible that the extra month would've got the Wehrmacht to Moscow. It is. I'm just not sure - and nor are many historians IIRC - that this would mean the USSR meaningfully collapses, as Hitler anticipated.
 
The Balkans Campaign is often mentioned as the reason for the delay. I have also read that it had been a very wet Spring in the East in 1941, which made conditions on the ground even worse than they would normally have been.

If memory serves it was not the later start date in June but the massive increase on the milage of German formations vehicles that was the main contributing factor of the Balkan campaign on Barbarossa. This increased mileage ment mechanical vehicles broke down more often and required increased amounts of maintenance, reducing the availability of key vehicles like tanks at the front.

This means that without Greece the German army would be able to fight more effectively especially at the later stages of the invasion when OTL maintenance issues combined with distance from rear bases caused the motorised elements to often grind to a halt.

Does it make much difference? Had the German army taken Moscow can we really dismiss the possibility of regime change in the USSR? If Stalin is out of the picture what would a new leader do? Would the performance of the USSR increase? Would the West retain enough faith in their failing ally to keep Lend Lease going? All of these possibilities could radically change the outcome of the war.
 
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