A Question of Realism for my Timeline

In my 1812 timeline, The Eagle and the Lion, the UK brutally wins the war of 1812. Taking the modern states of Michigan and Wisconsin, forcing the US to "legally" purchase the Louisiana purchase and imposing other strict actions. The US in return aids the Patriots in the Upper and Lower Canadian 1837 rebellions, leading to a longer rebellion [but still a British Victory]. These rapid defeats sends a deep sense of isolationism into the US, and the Mexican American War is delayed, leading to a Mexican gold rush. Eventually this war does happen, but it is longer and has harsher terms for mexico, including the establishment of buffer states; The Mexican Republic of the North [Or Republica Mexicana del Norte] and the Republic of the Rio Grande.

I've concluded that the American Civil War would still happen, but I cannot figure out who would win. The South will have a larger population compared to OTL, more competent Generals, as well as likely support from the British and French. However, the North will still have the advantages it did in OTL.

I'm kind of stuck here and was hoping for an opinion.
 

Deleted member 97083

The North would still have the advantage. I think they would still win, but it would take longer to win the war.
 
What happened to the Corwin Amendment and the Tariff of 1828?

The Corwin Amendment really never is suggested, or if it is, it's not taken seriously. The North felt that they needed to abolish slavery to advance and compete with the Europeans and the south was largely ignored. The Nullification Crisis actually does result in a civil war, as the US was destabilized from the war of 1812. Though this is a much shorter, less severe war. [Mainly went on due to lack of resources]
 
The Corwin Amendment really never is suggested, or if it is, it's not taken seriously. The North felt that they needed to abolish slavery to advance and compete with the Europeans and the south was largely ignored. The Nullification Crisis actually does result in a civil war, as the US was destabilized from the war of 1812. Though this is a much shorter, less severe war. [Mainly went on due to lack of resources]


So, it sounds like federalism isn’t very big ITTL, which it was IOTL. I’m not sure how familiar you are with the Corwin Amendment, but it enshrined the concept of the sovereignty of the states and therefore would have made it impossible for the federal government to ban slavery. There are a number of ways that you could free the slaves WITHOUT a war, though. The federal government might use eminent domain laws to purchase the slaves, or it might make it functionally impossible to keep slaves by challenging one of the Southern states in the Supreme Court over the right to mandate that citizens of Southern states go on slave patrol. In the latter scenario, escaped slaves would have to be captured by law enforcement, which would be... impossible, really.
 
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