---this spans probably both the pre and post 1900 forums
Out of 100 random timelines diverging from OTL's from 1862 or any year after, and in which Germany fights in a coalition war, in how many of them do the Germans do the Germans either conquer further or hold on to territorial gains longer than in OTL's world wars?
Here's one way we can score this.
On a 1-100 scale with a "1" meaning Germany doing the worst and "100" meaning Germany doing the best, where does our timeline fit?
If your answer is "1" it means that in 99 out of 100 hundred timelines diverging in 1862 or later, Germany would perform better in a world war or world wars than it did in OTL.
If your answer is "100" it means that in 99 out of 100 timelines Germany did worse than in OTL.
An answer of "50" would mean that Germany did worse than OTL 49 times and better than OTL 50 times.
Again, the basis of comparison is German performance compared with the world wars in OTL, in terms of territory size and value of territory occupied and/or length of occupation/dominance over any of said territory.
I'm not quite sure what I think the answer is, and I'm canvassing for opinions and rationales.
I would pose this thesis however, the sum total of commentary I've seen on SHWI, AHWI and Ian Montgomerie's site over the last decade or seems to point to a conclusion that OTL's German performance beat the odds, probably by a good bit.
In published AH fiction, the score is more even.
Out of 100 random timelines diverging from OTL's from 1862 or any year after, and in which Germany fights in a coalition war, in how many of them do the Germans do the Germans either conquer further or hold on to territorial gains longer than in OTL's world wars?
Here's one way we can score this.
On a 1-100 scale with a "1" meaning Germany doing the worst and "100" meaning Germany doing the best, where does our timeline fit?
If your answer is "1" it means that in 99 out of 100 hundred timelines diverging in 1862 or later, Germany would perform better in a world war or world wars than it did in OTL.
If your answer is "100" it means that in 99 out of 100 timelines Germany did worse than in OTL.
An answer of "50" would mean that Germany did worse than OTL 49 times and better than OTL 50 times.
Again, the basis of comparison is German performance compared with the world wars in OTL, in terms of territory size and value of territory occupied and/or length of occupation/dominance over any of said territory.
I'm not quite sure what I think the answer is, and I'm canvassing for opinions and rationales.
I would pose this thesis however, the sum total of commentary I've seen on SHWI, AHWI and Ian Montgomerie's site over the last decade or seems to point to a conclusion that OTL's German performance beat the odds, probably by a good bit.
In published AH fiction, the score is more even.