A question about butterflies, dead Romans and Korean conquerors

[Alkahest]

So, I'm currently doing research for a TL I've been mulling over, where the POD is in 271 (Aurelian being killed in a Juthungi ambush - see this thread if you're curious). Realizing that the world is bigger than Europe and the Middle East, I've been reading up on East Asian history around this time. The issue of butterflies inevitably emerged.

To give an example, how would you handle the expansion of Goguryeo? IOTL it happened under Gwangaeto the Great, who was born in 374 - over a hundred years after the POD. Genetics is a famously fickle bitch, and it seems very implausible that a perfect clone would be born in a world with a century of divergent history. Still, Korea is far away. How fast do you see the causal ripples spreading? Should I re-roll all the dice in Goguryeo the moment Aurelian bites the dust? If not then, when?

Help from more experienced alt-historians very much welcome!

 

[Grey Wolf]

I wouldn't make any changes until something impacts, otherwise you end up micro-managing the world.

What does "something impact" mean, tho? Since there is trade with Persia and indirectly India, and since Persia trades with India, and in India Persian and Roman merchants meet with Chinese traders, and Chinese traders will meet with other Chinese traders who trade with Korea, there is obviously SOME impact, but whether it is of any import is another question.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Neoteros]

The POD causes Rome to be different, the different Rome has different interactions with Persia that cause it to be different, the relations between the Persian and Indian regions are then different, then the butterflies spread to China and eventually reach Korea (or rather, Manchuria; Goguryeo occupied mostly that region). It's a chain reaction that could take decades or centuries to reach Goguryeo... but even less, maybe. Changing Goguryeo's history immediately after the Roman POD is ASB, though.

 

[DanF]

WhatIsAUserName and Democracy101 are two very knowledgeable posters regarding Korea and China you could PM them. They can give you many good ideas, which will undoubtably be better than my thoughts below. They also have different views so you will get two different sides as well.

Though not an expert in Korean history by any means, I do have a rough understanding. Considering Goguryeo was bouncing back right before Gwangaeto's reign (Baekje had just risen to fore under Geunchogo), they key is really to ensure the strong military foundation Goguryeo enjoyed OTL is still there. That way a Gwangaeto-like ruler will have the military necessary for the expansion. Considering the delay of effects traveling across Eurasia, the key I am thinking is ensuring you have a Micheon like figure ruling Gogoryeo around the start of the 4th Century to create/reinforce a strong military.

I am curious cause of the huge distance involved, what kind affects are you thinking? Is is something like the weakening of the Roman state causes all the migrating and steppe groups to get shifted east. Something like the Sarmatians are in Europe, the Huns north of the Black Sea, the proto-Turks are in today's Kazakstan, and the mongol tribes like Xianbei own more land further east. Therefore, the pressure on the Jin and Gogoryeo from the Xianbei is less to non-existent. A weaker Xianbei would have a lot larger effect on Chinese history, which may have a negative effect on Gogoryeo.

 

[democracy101]

So, I'm currently doing research for a TL I've been mulling over, where the POD is in 271 (Aurelian being killed in a Juthungi ambush - see this thread if you're curious). Realizing that the world is bigger than Europe and the Middle East, I've been reading up on East Asian history around this time. The issue of butterflies inevitably emerged.

To give an example, how would you handle the expansion of Goguryeo? IOTL it happened under Gwangaeto the Great, who was born in 374 - over a hundred years after the POD. Genetics is a famously fickle bitch, and it seems very implausible that a perfect clone would be born in a world with a century of divergent history. Still, Korea is far away. How fast do you see the causal ripples spreading? Should I re-roll all the dice in Goguryeo the moment Aurelian bites the dust? If not then, when?

Help from more experienced alt-historians very much welcome!

Well, to begin with, it's "Gwanggaeto," as the syllables are parsed as "Gwang-gae-to," but this is probably a nitpick. Gwanggaeto is also an extreme example because he was the only heir at the time, so a female could have theoretically taken the throne if he had not been born, and he is one of the few Korean rulers who actively expanded the state's territory, although the justification was based on areas that had been previously part of Gojoseon. Based on the original PoD, there is an extremely slim chance that the butterflies will affect Goguryeo by the time that Gwanggaeto is born as well, but it really depends on how you want to interpret the butterfly effect. I've seen some timelines that apply drastic changes to countries far apart in Eurasia within 50 years or so, which I would consider to be extreme, and some that cast a temporary "net" over the region where the PoD occurs for about a few centuries, while others use a "spiderweb" effect, where the changes spread out gradually over decades, if not centuries.

If you want to tackle Goguryeo, though, you would have to do a significant amount of research concerning East Asia before even thinking about the alternate scenario in order to understand the background. You can click the link on my sig and focus mostly on the events before the PoD, or take a look at the first few links here if you want to be exposed to some ideas, but you'll still to consult extensive sources. For example, I've been doing research for more than three years by mostly consulting Korean sources, although I haven't made much progress within my TL even after rewriting everything twice. You can also take a look here if you want extensive background information, although it barely touches on events concerning Gwanggaeto, and generally speaking, there are extremely few detailed resources about Goguryeo in English.

You can also certainly PM me with questions if you want, but it'll probably take me a while to sift through my sources and try to come up with a response.

WhatIsAUserName and Democracy101 are two very knowledgeable posters regarding Korea and China you could PM them. They can give you many good ideas, which will undoubtably be better than my thoughts below. They also have different views so you will get two different sides as well.

The problem is that most of our viewpoints are often in stark contrast to one another, mostly because I'm focusing much more on Korea, while the same is true for WhatIsAUserName concerning China. As a result, if someone who knows very little about East Asian history asks both of us the same question, he or she will receive two very contradictory responses, and it will be extremely hard for anyone to come up with a conclusion. Scholar is another member that is knowledgeable on events concerning China, but both sides of an argument need to be considered thoroughly, and it's much more difficult to present my points because I mostly have to consult Korean sources.

Though not an expert in Korean history by any means, I do have a rough understanding. Considering Goguryeo was bouncing back right before Gwangaeto's reign (Baekje had just risen to fore under Geunchogo), they key is really to ensure the strong military foundation Goguryeo enjoyed OTL is still there. That way a Gwangaeto-like ruler will have the military necessary for the expansion. Considering the delay of effects traveling across Eurasia, the key I am thinking is ensuring you have a Micheon like figure ruling Gogoryeo around the start of the 4th Century to create/reinforce a strong military.

This isn't particularly difficult. Goguryeo used most of its resources to supply and train the military for the duration of its existence, mostly because its core terrain was extremely inhospitable, This was mostly why it continuously raided its neighbors until the early 4th century, and was able to bounce back from two/three devastating invasions in the 3rd and 4th centuries, not to mention holding out against the Sui and Tang for 70 years. The foundation was there, but the issue is what the rulers wanted to focus on after consolidating the military. IOTL, most of them decided to conquer a significant amount of territory, then maintained stable diplomatic relations afterward, but if the state had been pressured by its neighbors much more extensively, as in my timeline, then it could have certainly expanded further given the right conditions.

I am curious cause of the huge distance involved, what kind affects are you thinking? Is is something like the weakening of the Roman state causes all the migrating and steppe groups to get shifted east. Something like the Sarmatians are in Europe, the Huns north of the Black Sea, the proto-Turks are in today's Kazakstan, and the mongol tribes like Xianbei own more land further east. Therefore, the pressure on the Jin and Gogoryeo from the Xianbei is less to non-existent. A weaker Xianbei would have a lot larger effect on Chinese history, which may have a negative effect on Gogoryeo.

It really depends on the writer, as it will be much easier to describe events with generally minimal butterflies, although care must be taken to ensure that it doesn't become too unrealistic by focusing on events similar to that of IOTL without a particular reason. However, it will be much more interesting for readers who are knowledgeable about the historical background if butterflies are more extensive, although this method will require much more time and effort. Both methods, though, require extensive research.

 

[eliphas8]

May I say Butterflies, Dead Romans, And Korean Conquerors is an amazing title to an alt history story? But yeah, I'd say it would be impossible for him to exist but its entirely plausible someone who is basically similar but different enough to also exist. I mean genetics and the like won't be the same because most of that is completely random and any change anywhere is likely to mean its different but at the same time the situation that let him rise to prominence and do probably won't be too changed.

 

[Basileus444]

My advice is to focus on your main cast. If you're focusing on the 3rd century Roman Empire, there's absolutely no reason for Korea to be in the story at all. From personal experience, if you try to cover the world with a great amount of detail, you will get burned out and you'll progress glacially slow, which further kills your incentive. In my TL, the focus is on the Byzantine Empire, with their neighbors playing a sort of B cast. Far east countries get the occasional throw away line, because since they're not important to the narrative there's no sense in putting a lot of work into their roles.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

My advice is to focus on your main cast. If you're focusing on the 3rd century Roman Empire, there's absolutely no reason for Korea to be in the story at all. From personal experience, if you try to cover the world with a great amount of detail, you will get burned out and you'll progress glacially slow, which further kills your incentive. In my TL, the focus is on the Byzantine Empire, with their neighbors playing a sort of B cast. Far east countries get the occasional throw away line, because since they're not important to the narrative there's no sense in putting a lot of work into their roles.

This essentially. If you get stuck micromanaging the world (especially an area of the world you don't know very much about, like say China would be for myself) then it just becomes too hard to maintain and it saps your willingness to continue.

 

[eliphas8]

My advice is to focus on your main cast. If you're focusing on the 3rd century Roman Empire, there's absolutely no reason for Korea to be in the story at all. From personal experience, if you try to cover the world with a great amount of detail, you will get burned out and you'll progress glacially slow, which further kills your incentive. In my TL, the focus is on the Byzantine Empire, with their neighbors playing a sort of B cast. Far east countries get the occasional throw away line, because since they're not important to the narrative there's no sense in putting a lot of work into their roles.

But you break your own advice (unless the swati kingdom of Kashmir is going to be vastly important to an age of miracles) by the way, what happened to them, I can't remember if the ottomans annexed them when they moved all the way to the Ganges or if they where along the border.

 

[Elfwine]

My rule of thumb (note this is within Western Eurasia for a POD within that area - but you can apply this logic to further afield):

Within a generation of the POD (For the Eagle of the Bosphorus, that's within about twenty years of 1176 - technically 1166 if you want to be fussy): Probably close to OTL except as changed by events.

Within two generations (another twenty-thirty years): Probably similar, but as events have already started changing, so will people - you might get a pretty close individual in a general sense, but not all the specifics.

Within three generations (the 1250s): Unless the area is pretty isolated from the events of the POD, one would notice this is an alternate timeline.

More than three generations: The changes you've already made mean that the things that produced what lead to X OTL are probably changed themselves - for example:

Alexander III of Scotland dying when he did, where he did, and with the (dead) children he had OTL - very unlikely.

Not impossible - that specific set of circumstances isn't unduplicatable - but casual and not so casual changes have made it unlikely that Alexander III of OTL would even be born (his father won't have married the daughter of John of England because Prince John died early on, so his first marriage is different, which means his second marriage probably doesn't take place when it did or to who it did)


So I wouldn't reroll the dice until the new players show up, so to speak. You probably shouldn't have everything exactly as OTL down to the atoms, but random differences have unpredictable effects and may cancel each other out (as it were).

 

[Basileus444]

But you break your own advice (unless the swati kingdom of Kashmir is going to be vastly important to an age of miracles) by the way, what happened to them, I can't remember if the ottomans annexed them when they moved all the way to the Ganges or if they where along the border.

I'm assuming you're specifically referring to Kashmir since you mentioned that. It was originally a literal space-filling state (there was a blob of white in one of my maps and I needed to put something there). Somebody asked a question about it, I expounded for a bit because at that point I was curious myself, and it became a fan favorite so every now and then I mention it just because people keep asking about it.

They're still around, but I'm tempted to have somebody conquer them just because I don't know what to do with them, and truthfully I've gotten bored with them; square silver coins can only go so far. And it's because of Kashmir and the brouhaha that boils up every time I touch China that I now feel the way that I do.

 

[eliphas8]

They're still around, but I'm tempted to have somebody conquer them just because I don't know what to do with them, and truthfully I've gotten bored with them; square silver coins can only go so far. And it's because of Kashmir and the brouhaha that boils up every time I touch China that I now feel the way that I do.

I'm tempted to say advise you to keep them around because the emerging Nestorian majority there is something unique and a decent concept for how to take things further. The only Christian state in India is in the very least an interesting enough concept not to abandon. But yeah, knowing the explanation the whole thing makes far more sense (although I do wish the rest of the world could somehow be expanded further, you've made such a broad interesting world that focussing on just Rhomanion is kind of making me feel like I'm missing out on about a dozen different interesting alt-histories going on in the background).

 

[Basileus444]

I'm tempted to say advise you to keep them around because the emerging Nestorian majority there is something unique and a decent concept for how to take things further. The only Christian state in India is in the very least an interesting enough concept not to abandon. But yeah, knowing the explanation the whole thing makes far more sense (although I do wish the rest of the world could somehow be expanded further, you've made such a broad interesting world that focussing on just Rhomanion is kind of making me feel like I'm missing out on about a dozen different interesting alt-histories going on in the background).

The Nestorian bit is my attempt to do something with them, since up to that point I had 'people with funny coins who sell carpets'. Not much to go on.

I do wish I could expand the world further since there are a lot of interesting plot lines (Wu, Ethiopia, and the Triple Monarchy all could warrant dedicated TLs of their own) but I don't have the creativity or time to attend to all of them the way I do Rhomania. Which is why I suggest having one main plot line, some 'B cast' ones which combined probably get close to the same amount of screen time as the main plot, and throwaway lines to refer to the rest of the world if you must. That way you have variety, but aren't burning yourself out covering everything.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

So, I'm currently doing research for a TL I've been mulling over, where the POD is in 271 (Aurelian being killed in a Juthungi ambush - see this thread if you're curious). Realizing that the world is bigger than Europe and the Middle East, I've been reading up on East Asian history around this time. The issue of butterflies inevitably emerged.

To give an example, how would you handle the expansion of Goguryeo? IOTL it happened under Gwangaeto the Great, who was born in 374 - over a hundred years after the POD. Genetics is a famously fickle bitch, and it seems very implausible that a perfect clone would be born in a world with a century of divergent history. Still, Korea is far away. How fast do you see the causal ripples spreading? Should I re-roll all the dice in Goguryeo the moment Aurelian bites the dust? If not then, when?

Help from more experienced alt-historians very much welcome!

Well, specifically regarding East Asia: By 271, the Western Jin Dynasty (西晉) based in Luoyang controls all of northern China and reaches into Sichuan as well, having ended both the Shu Han (蜀漢) and Cao Wei (曹魏). Historically, in 280, it reunified all of China by conquering the Eastern Wu Dynasty (孫吳), which held parts of southern China, though not Taiwan, Guizhou, or Yunnan. The unification of China by the Western Jin is probably inevitable, since the Eastern Wu was wracked by succession disputes, and had much less resources to begin with.

But, there are other things that could be butterflied away. The ruler of Western Jin, Sima Yan (司馬炎), unified China but structured the government in a rather feudal manner, granting his relatives and family members military positions and fiefdoms. When there was chaos at the center, some of these princes revolted in the War of the Eight Princes (八王之亂), where the character wang is translated as Prince as opposed to its old translation as king, thanks to title inflation. This event, not actually a constant war that involved all eight princes at once, but rather a period of instability that became civil war in its later stages, is definitely something that could be avoided. One of the people who started the conflict, Sima Wei (司馬瑋), was born in 271, so depending on when in 271 the POD is, he might not be born at all. Another prince in the conflict, Sima Ai (司馬乂), was born in 277. With a 271 POD, its questionable if Sima Ai would be born at all.

The War of the Eight Princes was marked by Chinese use of non-Chinese auxiliaries, such as Xiongnu, Qiang, Xianbei, and Wuhuan peoples. These are often called barbarians: I think such a term is loaded and I refrain from using it. As the various princes employed these non-Chinese auxiliaries, they lost the balance of power. These same non-Chinese peoples, who had settled inside China's borders, also revolted when they sensed weakness. (This is a situation quite similar to the Romans and foederati during the later stages of the Roman Empire, though there are differences, since the non-Chinese groups were quite limited in where they went.)

In 311, one of these groups who had revolted, the Xiognnu under Liu Yao took Luoyang and devastated in a sack worse than anything Rome ever suffered. A distant cousin of the Western Jin imperial family established the Eastern Jin from 317, and it wouldn't be until 589 that China would be reunified.

Now, you can look at this period of turmoil as either structural (due to Sima Yan's decision to run the government on feudal lines) or cyclical (ambitious and greedy princes are born every so often). I think it's a cyclical thing that can be avoided thanks to butterflies: the Eastern Jin and its successors continued to use imperial princes as enfeoffed military commanders, and they survived for two centuries.

I don't remember much about Korea but the Mahan, Pyŏnhan, and Chinhan states are all mostly still around, though the states of Paekche and Silla may already be present. Lelang and Daifang Commanderies have not yet been conquered, so in 271 the Western Jin still held portions of the Korean Peninsula.

 

[Alkahest]

Thanks a lot for all your input. I appreciate it!

Yeah, I guess it makes sense to focus on one area of the planet and ignore the ones not obviously related to the POD - to be honest, studying Chinese history is an incredibly boring and laborious experience for me at this moment. My main interest right now is the cultural and intellectual history of the Middle East, and Asian warlords don't exactly fit into that category.

Still, it feels lazy to just fill everywhere except western Eurasia with poorly researched blobs. What do you do, for example, when you decide to make a world map?

 

[Elfwine]

lazy[/I] to just fill everywhere except western Eurasia with poorly researched blobs. What do you do, for example, when you decide to make a world map?

Do you really need a world map for a timeline focusing on the Middle East's "cultural and intellectual history"?

I'd have a map of the area that you want to show has changed substantially from OTL, at most. And you don't strictly speaking even need that - although you should be able to give a good description in text of any alterations.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

A hard butterflyist like myself would say that changes, small ones, happen almost immediately.

If you reran the universe with NO change, quantum states, collapsing randomly, would collapse differently. This clearly takes a while to be visible, but spem swimming to eggs is very affected by brownian motion, say, so different people will be concieved in minutes from the PoD, and within hours very few people will be concieved the same.

So. A day after the PoD: Does Emperor X make a different decision? Not likely. Is the child he conceived that day going to be different? Yes.

 

[Elfwine]

I will never understand the insistence that random means different, as if a 6 being rolled on a fair die once means that you will never get again.

You can say it could go differently, or even that it would be probable that it would go differently (the other five possible outcomes are more likely than a six, even if no one of them is more likely), but how you go from "random chance" to "certainly different" is a leap that renders speculation about the effects of changes pointless.

 

[Falecius]

Well, specifically regarding East Asia: By 271, the Western Jin Dynasty (西晉) based in Luoyang controls all of northern China and reaches into Sichuan as well, having ended both the Shu Han (蜀漢) and Cao Wei (曹魏). Historically, in 280, it reunified all of China by conquering the Eastern Wu Dynasty (孫吳), which held parts of southern China, though not Taiwan, Guizhou, or Yunnan. The unification of China by the Western Jin is probably inevitable, since the Eastern Wu was wracked by succession disputes, and had much less resources to begin with.

But, there are other things that could be butterflied away. The ruler of Western Jin, Sima Yan (司馬炎), unified China but structured the government in a rather feudal manner, granting his relatives and family members military positions and fiefdoms. When there was chaos at the center, some of these princes revolted in the War of the Eight Princes (八王之亂), where the character wang is translated as Prince as opposed to its old translation as king, thanks to title inflation. This event, not actually a constant war that involved all eight princes at once, but rather a period of instability that became civil war in its later stages, is definitely something that could be avoided. One of the people who started the conflict, Sima Wei (司馬瑋), was born in 271, so depending on when in 271 the POD is, he might not be born at all. Another prince in the conflict, Sima Ai (司馬乂), was born in 277. With a 271 POD, its questionable if Sima Ai would be born at all.

The War of the Eight Princes was marked by Chinese use of non-Chinese auxiliaries, such as Xiongnu, Qiang, Xianbei, and Wuhuan peoples. These are often called barbarians: I think such a term is loaded and I refrain from using it. As the various princes employed these non-Chinese auxiliaries, they lost the balance of power. These same non-Chinese peoples, who had settled inside China's borders, also revolted when they sensed weakness. (This is a situation quite similar to the Romans and foederati during the later stages of the Roman Empire, though there are differences, since the non-Chinese groups were quite limited in where they went.)

In 311, one of these groups who had revolted, the Xiognnu under Liu Yao took Luoyang and devastated in a sack worse than anything Rome ever suffered. A distant cousin of the Western Jin imperial family established the Eastern Jin from 317, and it wouldn't be until 589 that China would be reunified.

Now, you can look at this period of turmoil as either structural (due to Sima Yan's decision to run the government on feudal lines) or cyclical (ambitious and greedy princes are born every so often). I think it's a cyclical thing that can be avoided thanks to butterflies: the Eastern Jin and its successors continued to use imperial princes as enfeoffed military commanders, and they survived for two centuries.

I don't remember much about Korea but the Mahan, Pyŏnhan, and Chinhan states are all mostly still around, though the states of Paekche and Silla may already be present. Lelang and Daifang Commanderies have not yet been conquered, so in 271 the Western Jin still held portions of the Korean Peninsula.

Heck, surviving Western Jin would make a very interesting timeline in their own right. Has anybody done this?

 

[Alkahest]

I'd have a map of the area that you want to show has changed substantially from OTL, at most. And you don't strictly speaking even need that - although you should be able to give a good description in text of any alterations.

This seems reasonable. Thanks for the help!