A Prussia without Ruhr and Rhineland - can they compensate?

archaeogeek

Banned
Since Bohemia-Moravia seems to be the largest sticking point, I'll drop it from my wishlist. We now have what is effectively a Prussia-Poland-Saxony (that may at a later date make a swipe for Galicia and/or the Baltics).

With it's industrial potential limited to Silesia, Saxony and possibly Berlin and Warsaw, can it stay afloat?

In terms of population it would have about 12 million people in 1815 (btw, one part of the czech crown it could realistically get is Upper Silesia though, which would be a rather major coalfield and could boost Prussian industry). Poles would be a third of the population, and there would be no significant minority otherwise (nothing on the scale of Austria-Hungary) besides the Silesian Czechs who would be drowned in the predominantly german population of Silesia for most of the period. It less than but close to OTL Prussia post-Napoleonic wars. If it makes a pass at Galicia later it pushes the polish half of the Prussians closer to 45-50%. So ethnically it will be very divided and a "Polish Compromise" may well end up having to happen with the polish provinces (so Poznan, Little Poland, Great Poland, Mazovia and later Galicia and Volhynia; the Prussian crown would still likely count West Prussia as German). Industrially, it swaps industrial regions for industrial regions but will be a bit less industrial than OTL I guess.

I'd say it's viable so long as Austria and Russia don't try to do too much, but it might well end up torn apart by German unification, since it would be much smaller than Austria (about 1/3 to 1/2 the population, not much wealthier)
 
The Industry in the Ruhr Area did not develop until after it became Prussian. Before that it was thinly populated an unimportant.

It is also important to know, that before the communists ruined it Saxony was one of theoldest and most important industrial areas in Europe.

So I think Prussia can mostly compensate for the lose, maybe even overcompensate in the industrial capacity. It should do fine without the Ruhr coal until ~ 1890 and by then we should have an unified Germany anyway.

The most important question here is: who gets the Rhineland instead of Prussia.
Best solution for Prussia would be a small independent state. Then they could just buy the coal from them.
Worts case would be that the French somehow get it.
Interesting would be what happens if some middle power (Bavaria, Belgium, Hannover) gets it.

Another question is, how does the larger polish minority work out for Prussia. Does it become a destabilizing, rebellious minority? Or do they find an A-H like aggrement?
If they ally with the german democrats the poles could even make the 1848 revolutiona success.
 
The most important question here is: who gets the Rhineland instead of Prussia.
Best solution for Prussia would be a small independent state. Then they could just buy the coal from them.
The plan says it gets made into a kingdom and given to the former Saxon king.

Another question is, how does the larger polish minority work out for Prussia. Does it become a destabilizing, rebellious minority? Or do they find an A-H like aggrement?
The plan says the Kingdom of Poland gets revived as a hereditary kingdom in personal union with Prussia.
 
And Saxony.

Look at the map, thats almost like modern Poland + GDR:

eu1812prussiasaxonypola.gif
 
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archaeogeek

Banned
And Saxony.

Look at the map, thats almost like modern Poland + GDR:

Thuringia would be in the Prussian orbit pretty much by default since it was divided between Saxony, Prussia and Saxon cadet lines IOTL (with Reuss and Schwarzburg being pretty much insignificant), so it would be the same borders as the DDR minus Mecklemburg yeah.
 

Maur

Banned
In terms of population it would have about 12 million people in 1815 (btw, one part of the czech crown it could realistically get is Upper Silesia though, which would be a rather major coalfield and could boost Prussian industry). Poles would be a third of the population, and there would be no significant minority otherwise (nothing on the scale of Austria-Hungary) besides the Silesian Czechs who would be drowned in the predominantly german population of Silesia for most of the period. It less than but close to OTL Prussia post-Napoleonic wars. If it makes a pass at Galicia later it pushes the polish half of the Prussians closer to 45-50%. So ethnically it will be very divided and a "Polish Compromise" may well end up having to happen with the polish provinces (so Poznan, Little Poland, Great Poland, Mazovia and later Galicia and Volhynia; the Prussian crown would still likely count West Prussia as German). Industrially, it swaps industrial regions for industrial regions but will be a bit less industrial than OTL I guess.

I'd say it's viable so long as Austria and Russia don't try to do too much, but it might well end up torn apart by German unification, since it would be much smaller than Austria (about 1/3 to 1/2 the population, not much wealthier)
Are you sure it's 12m? From what i gather OTL Prussia had 9m in 1801, and that includes everything in the west and all three partitions territory. Supposedly, because it's unclear what i just read was referring to.

Also, let's not forget that Prussia got hugely boosted after 1815, so OTL is definitely stronger that this thing.

As for B-M, weirder things happened. Remember the cute plan to partition Prussia in 1756? Out of the blue, total rework of alliances? Who says nothing like that could happen to Austria. War of Austrian Succesion ends with total disaster for Austria, for example ;)

The industry thing is not important until well into XIX century. From the industrial potential perspective, Prussia is much worse off, there is not nearly as much coal in new eastern lands than in Ruhr. In fact, almost none, except some near Silesia, no iron to speak of either. Now, with Bohemia it would be different matter - it would be only somewhat worse ;)

The question of German unification is very different in such situation.


Thuringia would be in the Prussian orbit pretty much by default since it was divided between Saxony, Prussia and Saxon cadet lines IOTL (with Reuss and Schwarzburg being pretty much insignificant), so it would be the same borders as the DDR minus Mecklemburg yeah.
And minus western Galicia.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Are you sure it's 12m? From what i gather OTL Prussia had 9m in 1801, and that includes everything in the west and all three partitions territory. Supposedly, because it's unclear what i just read was referring to.
.

I said 14 million initially but I admit I'm not so sure now even with 12.
9 million for Prussia did include the partition territories but not necessarily only that; I'm not sure if it includes Berg-Cleves-Jülich or not (which was the only thing Prussia owned in the west in 1801 and most of it had been overrun by the French already); I don't think it does. So there might be 1 million in the west, however the duchy of Warsaw is about 3 million of it (post-Tilsit Prussia is 5 million and then some). On top of that, the lands stripped at Tilsit include Prussian Lusace, the parts of Brandenburg west of the Elbe

On top of that, Saxony is 1 million, Thuringia combines is about 1 million... So basically the only problem is what, exactly, becomes Prussian. If Northern Galicia becomes Prussian then that might fill in the needed million.

It's at least 10 million, though, which is about twice the Netherlands.

(also the numbers given on wikipedia add up to
- Given to Saxony, 442.000
- Given to Westphalia, 753.000 so it would be almost a million lost yeah)
 
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