A prolonged Battle of France causes Op. Barbarossa to be postponed until early 1943.

If so, do the Germans manage to reach/breach the Stalin line? And how much of its population and industry does the USSR manage to save compared to OTL?
 
If so, do the Germans manage to reach/breach the Stalin line? And how much of its population and industry does the USSR manage to save compared to OTL?
It depends on the losses in France and what the Soviets do. To be honest I don't see the chance for Germany to win a prolonged battle of France.
 
How prolonged is the Battle of France?

It makes a large difference whether it is a couple of days, weeks, months or greater than a year.
 
If Germany fails to defeat France in 1940, then they'll fail to defeat France, period. After 1940, it's not so much a question of when Hitler invades the USSR, but rather when Stalin stabs an ever-weakening Germany in the back. After fleecing them for everything of value, of course.
 
The French leaders calculated their military would be ready to start limited attacks in 1941. A air campaign to attrition the German AF & methodical bite and hold attacks on the ground, that would use firepower to destroy as many men and weapons as possible. In 1942 they expected the German economy to be collapsing and broad offensive by all the Allied armies would force the nazis to be replaced by a peace government.

If the USSR continues the mobilization it had underway 1940-41 to its logical point in 1942 then sensible German leaders will be very anxious to make peace & rebuild their military. There won't be much of a question of 'invading' the USSR but one of how to prevent the Red Army from attacking.
 
they could fight on from Algeria ... and the active French fleet might even butterfly away Italian entry into the war?
 
Somewhere in the Kremlin in ‘43 Stalin tells his generals he calculated everything right with R & M and they nod and the USSR rolls continental Europe.
 
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Archibald

Banned
This is what happens in France fights on. Battle of France last until August 8, 1940 (near Perpignan) hence Barbarossa is pushed to May 17, 1942. Needless to say, German forces penetration of the Soviet Union is far less.
 
A prolonged Battle of France leads to Hitler/Himmler/Bormann/Goebbels all getting a bullet to the brain courtesy of the Wehrmacht. The generals would know very well that such a bogged down effort would eventually weaken Germany enough to give Stalin ideas. You'll notice I didn't mention Goering. Likely he would be propped up as the new chancellor. He was never the most committed or ideological Nazi, and he was a famous WWI ace and holder of the Pour la Merite.
 
To make the OP work, we need a much different WW2. The Sickle Cut was not guaranteed to work. So, if France does not pour the reserves into the cauldron, the Germans still win a tactical victory and reach the channel, but the war drags out.

We need a POD beforehand where French assistance can reach Finland or some sort of catalyst that leads to Anglo-French attacks against Baku. A weakening of Russia is necessary to make the OP even possible.

Then ITTL, by the end of 1940 Germany's superior and mobility allows them to take the channel ports, though they cannot get a decisive victory against the French in the field. In 1941, the French and British may attack and if the Germans show the sort of savvy that led to victory in defensive battles like Rhzev, 2nd and 3rd Kharkov, and etc IOTL, the Germans may be able to defeat the French in the field. The chances would be 15%, but it is not ASB.

So, this means Germany may decisively defeat France in 1941. If it were to continue into 1942, then I think Germany is too exhausted to even consider Barbarossa 1943.

Then, what is 1942 ITTL? Securing the Balkans, probably avoiding the Greece quagmire, Yugoslavia probably enters the German orbit. Africa is probably not an active theater, because Italy is not in the war. This means British preoccupation is with the Blockade (including blockading Russia in the Pacific) and perhaps a failed invasion of Norway in 1942. Lend Lease might not even happen ITTL, or if it does it starts more than a year later.

This means when Japan flexes their muscle, it is likely to drag Britain and USA into the war with themselves. This will probably begin Lend Lease with Britain in early 42.

Here I see two PODs. Germany DOWs war on USA and their fight with Britain and USA is now their chief occupation. An alliance with Russia is not out of the question, especially considering how USA reacts after Japan (being that with the Baku POD, Britain is in a warm war against Russia.)

But, to make the OP work, Germany needs to not be at war with the USA. So, for whatever reason, Germany does not DOW on USA. Perhaps US Lend Lease sticks to Iceland and does not cross some sort of line Germany is willing to tolerate.

Anywho, in late May 1943 Germany attacks Russia due to 1. Not wanting to pay Russia back for oil and grains, 2. Russia cutting back shipments due to lack of payment and their warm war with Britain, 3. Nazi ideology.

In this event, I imagine the Soviets are much stronger, and they would have learned a little bit against the British. They will have fuel constraints, but still not worse than Germany's constraints (as Germany will have relied upon Romanian and Soviet exports at this point.) Germany's military will be more built up do to constant war. Germany may break through at the borders, but that's it. The USSR is more built up and more removed from the purge. I imagine Britain makes peace with Russia, and though Russia may not get lend lease, Russia will not need it. Ironically, Russia will probably conquer Germany in 1944 and the cold war border may be west of the Rhine.
 

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If Barbarossa has to be delayed to 1943, it isn't happening. Part of the calculation of invading in 1941 was the weakness of the USSR and their plans of rearming. Much like the 1916 hard deadline for the Schlieffen Plan to be scrapped, Barbarossa was pretty much a 1941 plan because they recognized that the USSR would be recovered too much even by 1942 to be easily invaded; the Barbarossa plan was predicated on being able to win decisive battles at the border and the war over in 2 months, because 'all you need to do is kick in the door and the whole rotten structure would come toppling down'. That assumption no longer holds by 1942 due to the rearmament/recovery. By 1943 its totally out the window.
 
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