To make the OP work, we need a much different WW2. The Sickle Cut was not guaranteed to work. So, if France does not pour the reserves into the cauldron, the Germans still win a tactical victory and reach the channel, but the war drags out.
We need a POD beforehand where French assistance can reach Finland or some sort of catalyst that leads to Anglo-French attacks against Baku. A weakening of Russia is necessary to make the OP even possible.
Then ITTL, by the end of 1940 Germany's superior and mobility allows them to take the channel ports, though they cannot get a decisive victory against the French in the field. In 1941, the French and British may attack and if the Germans show the sort of savvy that led to victory in defensive battles like Rhzev, 2nd and 3rd Kharkov, and etc IOTL, the Germans may be able to defeat the French in the field. The chances would be 15%, but it is not ASB.
So, this means Germany may decisively defeat France in 1941. If it were to continue into 1942, then I think Germany is too exhausted to even consider Barbarossa 1943.
Then, what is 1942 ITTL? Securing the Balkans, probably avoiding the Greece quagmire, Yugoslavia probably enters the German orbit. Africa is probably not an active theater, because Italy is not in the war. This means British preoccupation is with the Blockade (including blockading Russia in the Pacific) and perhaps a failed invasion of Norway in 1942. Lend Lease might not even happen ITTL, or if it does it starts more than a year later.
This means when Japan flexes their muscle, it is likely to drag Britain and USA into the war with themselves. This will probably begin Lend Lease with Britain in early 42.
Here I see two PODs. Germany DOWs war on USA and their fight with Britain and USA is now their chief occupation. An alliance with Russia is not out of the question, especially considering how USA reacts after Japan (being that with the Baku POD, Britain is in a warm war against Russia.)
But, to make the OP work, Germany needs to not be at war with the USA. So, for whatever reason, Germany does not DOW on USA. Perhaps US Lend Lease sticks to Iceland and does not cross some sort of line Germany is willing to tolerate.
Anywho, in late May 1943 Germany attacks Russia due to 1. Not wanting to pay Russia back for oil and grains, 2. Russia cutting back shipments due to lack of payment and their warm war with Britain, 3. Nazi ideology.
In this event, I imagine the Soviets are much stronger, and they would have learned a little bit against the British. They will have fuel constraints, but still not worse than Germany's constraints (as Germany will have relied upon Romanian and Soviet exports at this point.) Germany's military will be more built up do to constant war. Germany may break through at the borders, but that's it. The USSR is more built up and more removed from the purge. I imagine Britain makes peace with Russia, and though Russia may not get lend lease, Russia will not need it. Ironically, Russia will probably conquer Germany in 1944 and the cold war border may be west of the Rhine.