A pro-Russian, smaller Poland without Pilsudski-what happens next?

Let's assume that Pilsudski dies during WW1 as the war nears its end.
As a result his main rival who enjoyed support in Central and Western Poland, Dmowski takes power.
For the sake of argument, let's assume that the more experienced with Russians Dmowski who was more pro-Russia friendly, comes to agreement with Whites that Polish borders in the East will be recognized on modified Bug line, with plebiscite in East Galicia between Poland and Russian state after the end of conflicts in that region.
In exchange for decisive military support against Bolsheviks, Whites support Polish claims in the West.
The Zaolzie dispute is solved by a plebiscite(Dmowski liked the Czechs more than Pilsudski as he was supportive of neoslavism movement)

The end result is White Russia neutral at least to Poland.

How would smaller Poland with more Upper Silesia, Gdansk but no Kresy and better relations with Czechs and Russians look like in interwar years?
 
1. Which Whites? They were many groups, not exactly friendly to each other. And could Poles trust the victorious Whites would keep their word and allow Poland to leave the Russian Empire?
2. If Dmowski told Poles he would leave Vilnius Russian... well, he wouldn't rule very long
3. White Russia support for Poland in the West would not matter so much, I think - the decisive voice belonged to France and Britain
4. I'm not sure if Czechoslovakia would have agreed for a plebiscite - IOTL they did, and then took Zaolzie by force presenting Poland and Entente with fait accompli.

But let's assume it works. Poland has friendly or neutral Russia as neighbour and open access to Russian market - very important, since economy of the former Congress Kingdom was tied with Russian economy. Bigger chunk of Upper Silesia in Polish hands means stronger Polish industry - Germans are hostile anyway, so it doesn't change their attitude that much. Gdańsk/Danizg was almost completely German - I do not think Poland would have taken it, Free City under LoN and Polish supervision, as IOTL. Better relations with Czechoslovakia means access to another market and strong industry, not to mention potential anti-German ally. I think Poland might get Lvov in East Galicia, but not much more. So smaller Poland has safer borders, much stronger economy and less ethnic minorities, although still some. Happy days, right?
Not exactly. Dmowski was a nationalist. That means even more conflicts with Polish minorities, especially Jews and Germans. Polish authorities impose some anti-semitic laws, like "numerus clausus" (limit of Jews allowed to study in universities) and press Polish Jews to leave to Palestine or to Madagascar. Surpression of the socialists and some other left or not-socialistic parties. I think in time Poland would have become a fascist state, Italian or Spanish style, with a single ruling party and the Chief/Duce/Caudillo, Fuehrer... take your pick.
 
Last edited:
I once tried briefly outlining a similar scenario, on the assumption that Wrangel was the least obstinate White leader who could have ended up in power.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=5698977&postcount=1947

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=5698979&postcount=1948

If Russia accepts its western border, Poland will certainly be safer as a result of the isolation of Germany. Russia will be much less likely to become a German ally, Poland won't have to worry about a Russian invasion in its dealings with Germany, and Czechoslovakia ought to view an alliance with Poland as less of a liability if this doesn't annoy Russia.
 
Last edited:
Gdańsk/Danizg was almost completely German - I do not think Poland would have taken it, Free City under LoN and Polish supervision, as IOTL.

We are talking Dmowski's Poland. If given the chance, he will take it.

I doubt there's be a plebiscite in East Galicia, as no side can really count for support, but if it happened, who do you think would win? Is there a chance the Ukrainian majority would boycott the plebisite if two options present were Poland and Russia?
 
4. I'm not sure if Czechoslovakia would have agreed for a plebiscite - IOTL they did, and then took Zaolzie by force presenting Poland and Entente with fait accompli.
Actually before plebiscite could be organized, Poland tried to hold the election for Sejm on disputed territory. Czechoslovakia protested but Poland rejected the protests. Afterwards, Czechoslovakia invaded.
 
Originally posted by KACKO
Actually before plebiscite could be organized, Poland tried to hold the election for Sejm on disputed territory. Czechoslovakia protested but Poland rejected the protests. Afterwards, Czechoslovakia invaded.

AFAIK Piłsudski offered to negotiate, but Czechoslovakians attacked anyway. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Czechoslovakians sources said a different story. Who knows what was true? Anyway, I simplified the matter a little too much, and KACKO was right to clarify it, even if I do not completely agree with his post.
 
Originally posted by KACKO


AFAIK Piłsudski offered to negotiate, but Czechoslovakians attacked anyway. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Czechoslovakians sources said a different story. Who knows what was true? Anyway, I simplified the matter a little too much, and KACKO was right to clarify it, even if I do not completely agree with his post.
My friend I am not sure about the true either. ;)
 
Top