A present USA with these ethnic demographics

75% (Non-hispanic) white, 14% black, 8% Hispanic and 1% Asian.

This is according to Pew Research what the current ethnic demographics of the US would be if not for the change in post-1965 immigration.

How would this alternate US be different from the current one that exists today?
 
The basic problems driving politics would be the same.

But with less certainty of eventual victory among dems, less despair among gop.
 
Ok lets see.

The asian population would be lower, that would have knock on effects on silicon vally quite a few engineers and doctors from east asia came here to make our country better so our tech sector isnt as good.

Decent mexican food is harder to find east of the miss but that isnt too different. The country would probally be poorer.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
What's the breakdown in terms of age cohorts?

75% (Non-hispanic) white, 14% black, 8% Hispanic and 1% Asian.

This is according to Pew Research what the current ethnic demographics of the US would be if not for the change in post-1965 immigration.

How would this alternate US be different from the current one that exists today?

What's the breakdown in terms of age cohorts?

With a 1965 POD, my bet would be the population would generally skew older (white Baby Boomers as the even more dominant cohort, if that's even possible) with a significantly higher retired to working ratio than is present today.

The age demographics and economic impact are even more interesting than any racial issues, I'd think. May have even more women in the workforce, and much less of a glass ceiling...

Which in turn, sort of requires a more societal focus on child care, for example.

Best,
 
What's the breakdown in terms of age cohorts?

With a 1965 POD, my bet would be the population would generally skew older (white Baby Boomers as the even more dominant cohort, if that's even possible) with a significantly higher retired to working ratio than is present today.

The age demographics and economic impact are even more interesting than any racial issues, I'd think. May have even more women in the workforce, and much less of a glass ceiling...

Which in turn, sort of requires a more societal focus on child care, for example.

Best,

Based on their report the current median age in the US is 38 and would be 41 today if not for post-65 immigration.

So definitely an older whiter america.
 
Ok lets see.

The asian population would be lower, that would have knock on effects on silicon vally quite a few engineers and doctors from east asia came here to make our country better so our tech sector isnt as good.

Decent mexican food is harder to find east of the miss but that isnt too different. The country would probally be poorer.

That effect sounds pretty minor. I doubt the tech sector would be more than a few MONTHS behind were we are now.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Thanks - very interesting; not quite as skewed as the

Based on their report the current median age in the US is 38 and would be 41 today if not for post-65 immigration. So definitely an older whiter america.

Thanks - very interesting; not quite as skewed as the age demographics are starting to get in some European states and Japan, but trending...

Paradoxically, I think an older, whiter America from 1965 onwards is probably going to push greater equality for women; in some ways, it has to, simply to feed the workforce.

The ERA may have passed at some point in this "different" America; certainly more liberal social welfare and civil rights laws are likely. Organized labor is likely to remain stronger, as well.

In some ways, it might in fact be a significantly more liberal society, for a variety of reasons, both rational and emotional.

Best,
 
It's poorer overall, better for the average worker. People in the workforce will have more power because there is less of a labor supply. We likely see a much higher minimum wage. The parties could be more to the right, or they could not.
 
It's poorer overall, better for the average worker. People in the workforce will have more power because there is less of a labor supply. We likely see a much higher minimum wage. The parties could be more to the right, or they could not.

When you mean poorer are you referring to national GDP or for the average citizen?

Because you say things would be better for the average worker.
 
Thanks - very interesting; not quite as skewed as the age demographics are starting to get in some European states and Japan, but trending...

Paradoxically, I think an older, whiter America from 1965 onwards is probably going to push greater equality for women; in some ways, it has to, simply to feed the workforce.

The ERA may have passed at some point in this "different" America; certainly more liberal social welfare and civil rights laws are likely. Organized labor is likely to remain stronger, as well.

In some ways, it might in fact be a significantly more liberal society, for a variety of reasons, both rational and emotional.

Best,


Those are good points - although I wonder if in a "whiter" USA casual racism might still be more publicly acceptable and institutional racism run even deeper. Perhaps the paradox of a society that is more "liberal" on economic and gender issues but more "conservative" on racial issues?
 
on the issue of 'race', I wonder with 3/4 of the population being white, therefore there also being a larger percentage of poor whites, if there would still be race distinctions within the 'white' bracket such as we had prior to WWII: Poles, Italians, Irish... Okies???? May be in this timeline, the Italians would be the new 'latinos', dominating all the trades nowadays seen as typical Latino: Construction, restaurants, hospitality... Farm hands??? Or may be that last one would still be done by the children of the Oklahoma/Texas immigrants from the Dust bowl days.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Possibly, but one issue that could come into play is that

Those are good points - although I wonder if in a "whiter" USA casual racism might still be more publicly acceptable and institutional racism run even deeper. Perhaps the paradox of a society that is more "liberal" on economic and gender issues but more "conservative" on racial issues?

Possibly, but one issue that could come into play is that with an older-skewing population, the likelihood of intermarriage and assimilation of ethnic/racial minorities is likely to accelerate...

Not quite Richard Rodriguez' concept of "brown America" but trending that way; the obvious societal leaders are going to be boomers who "rebel" against the precepts of their Depression/GI Generation parents, and casual racism was becoming less and less acceptable in public life from the 1940s onward; the Civil Rights Movement hit in the 1960s, about when one would expect, and with a different ethnic/racial/native/naturalized mix, I'd expect that would remain the default...

It is a paradox, but it's not just contrarianism.

Best,
 
When you mean poorer are you referring to national GDP or for the average citizen?

Because you say things would be better for the average worker.

I think it meant "Smaller" as is overall size of GDP, but with a higher median wealth due to lower labor supply/higher wages.

And I agree.
 
This will probably be a less inclusive country for females, which might help with the birth rate by restricting abortion. But crime, by that same logic, might be worse in the 80s and 90s.

I think by the late 80s or 90s there will be a move towards greater social obligations on behalf of the government.
 
Top