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Instead of Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli being elected Pope on March 2, 1939, it is the Polish Cardinal August Hlond that ascends to the throne of Peter in a stunning reversal of expectation that is called by church observers as "nothing less than a visible act of God." How else could the princes of the church elect a Slavic Pope? Pius's experience with Germany made his a sure choice for an era of German power, but the enclave had gone with a more "spiritual" choice instead.

How? 1) the Cardinals are worried about the growing possibility of war in Europe and have come to believe, thanks to British and French suggestions that a Polish pope would make Hitler hesitate more about invading Poland. Peace is a worthy goal for the Church to try to achieve through its choice of Pontiff. 2) The British and the French are concerned that Pacelli, who is seen as far too close to Germany, would not continue the policies of firmness with Germany of Pius XI or worse that he would remain silent in case of war.

So this TL explores what would happen next. How would the world change? Would war still erupt on 1 September 1939?

New TL as of 4/22/2012

10 February, 1939

As the cardinals gathered in Rome to elect a new Pope the question who would replace Pius XI, a resolute opponent of the Nazi regime, mattered greatly to Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland.

British and French foreign ministers meet in Paris to discuss the very quesiton and agreement is reached on cooperattion to secure the election of a Pope who would continue the policy of firmness toward Germany initiated by Pius XI.

Because Pacelli is a favorite of the German ambassador to the Vatican, and an avowed Germanophile, the British and the French feel that he would remain silent in matters German. Pacelli is simply too close to Germany, having surrounded himself with German advisers who, the British and the French feel, would exercize an unhleathy influence on him as Pontif. The last thing that Britain and France wanted in case of war was a pro-German Pope in the Vatican.

But where did that leave them? What about a Polish pope? The idea is on it's face quite incredible, but a Pole in the Vatican would be guaranteed not to remain silent should a war break out. And the turn of events may make Hitler hesitate to attack Poland. The British and the French decide that it is worth a try. But they will need something to take Pacelli out of the equation.

From their contacts inside the Vatican, the Germans learn that the majority of the Cardinals could be persuaded to vote for a Germany friendly pope in return for a secret payment of 3 million gold marks. The bribe idea is presented to Himmler, who immediatelly brings it to the attention of Hitler. The Furher goes against the advice of SD specialists agaisnt such a blatant attempt to infleunce the elections for the simple reason that he is also aware that the British and the French are working to exhert their influence on behalf of a Polish Cardinal, a piece of intelligence that has inspired in him a fit of irrational madness, for a Polish Pope would certainly complicate his plans of invasion of Poland.

Unfortunately, the man who claimed to have the ability to sell conclave votes was no more than a confidence trickster and secretly in the employ of the French intelligence. The French reveal the German vote buying scheme to the world through an anonymous tip to the press. Germany's crude attempt to influence the Vatican in order to install a "German Pope" makes Pacelli's candidacy impossible.

4 MARCH 1939

VATICAN: Pope Pius XII, the name that Hlond takes, announces plans to travel to Poland late in August.

5 MARCH 1939

BERLIN: At the Reich Chancellery Hitler meets with Himmler and other officials to discuss the election of a Polish Pope and his travel plans.

A more pressing issue is Czechoslovakia: Hitler plans to seize Moravia and Bohemia parts of Czechoslovakia on the 15th and wants to know what the Polish Pope's reaction will be.

CHICAGO: Polish Americans stage a parade through the city, joining Poles around the world in celebration of the historic event. A congratulatory letter from Roosevelt is read during the high point of the event.

WARSAW, POLAND: Poland's political and Church leaders gather at a ceremonial Mass at St. John's cathedral in thanksgiving.

The Polish pope faces a significant problem when it comes to Germany. The policy of his predecessor was informed by the desire to protect the German church by making concessions to Hitler. One of these concessions was the Concordat, an international agreement between the Vatican and the Hitler regime that conferred international prestige on Hitler but did little to protect the Church in Germany. Hitler ignored his obligations and harassed the Church, so much so that Pius XI and his secretary of state, Cardinal Pacelli, sent as many as thirty-four diplomatic notes of protests in the period 1933 to 1936. No, Hitler was not even a nominal Catholic--he was a cold and ruthless dictator who did not hesitate to send priests to concentration camps.

The Vatican can do little to moderate the regime in Germany--it can't even protect the German Church. A policy of impartiality seems to only option, but how can Hlond remain impartial if Germany invades Poland? And yet his actions are constrained by the German Church held hostage in a land ruled by evil men--any significant public condemnation by the Vatican could bring more suffering on innocent German Catholics. How can he weaken Germany indirectly?

While Germany is lost to the Vatican, Italy is not. The Church of Rome has a great deal of power in Italy. Italy, despite Mussolini's hopes, is not Fascist. The project of molding younger Italians into a new vanguard failed miserably. Policies aimed at the Jews are unpopular. What's worse, the prospect of war in Europe horrifies Italian public opinion. Mussolini can only offer Hitler a "reserve of economic and moral support."

Besides an ineffectual army, there are other reason why Mussolini offers only words. There is in fact an area of trouble between the Reich and Italy--South Tyrol. Is this the leaver that the Vatican can use to drive a wedge between Mussolini and Hitler? In fact, Mussolini fears German designs on Italy and in April 1939 in an announcement to the Council of Ministers that he intended to "close the doors of the house..." And he orders increase in defensive measures in the North. To use this problem to its advantage, the Vatican must play on Mussolini's fears in regard to German ambitions.

MARCH 1939

March 15: The German Army invades Czechoslovakia. The Pope publicly denounces the invasion. In America, President Roosevelt also condemns the invasion. Neville Chamberlain gives a speech in Birmingham saying that Britain will oppose German plans to dominate the world.

March 21: Hitler turns his sights on Poland, demanding the return of the Free City of Danzig.

March 31: The UK pledges support for Poland's independence.

APRIL 1939

Attempts by the Vatican to undermine German-Italian axis by playing on Mussolini's fears of German territorial intentions do not bring any desired fruits. While Mussolini has some fears about German ambitions, he does not have the power to break away from Hitler, and his anti-Clericalism makes it difficult for the Church to influence the dictator.

April 3: Hitler orders the German military to start planning for war with Poland.

April 7: Mussolini does not invade Albania. Italian troops are still loyal to the King, who, at the behest of the Pope, has expressed his wishes for peace in Europe, and so Mussolini's orders would not have been obeyed, De Vecci tells him, if they conflicted with those of the king. And De Vecci tells him that, as before in the days of the March on Rome, he will not act against the King.

Mussolini vents his anger by having his thugs burn down a Catholic newspaper office. He can do nothing more for the Italian public is ecstatic with their King. While they have lost some of their admiration for him when he remained silent in the past and took the crown of Ethiopia, his refusal to be Mussolini's servant has changed the public perception.


April 10: In response to the increasing danger on the continent, the Pope sends a secret emissary to Paris for a meeting with the French president and government to discuss military aid to Poland. The french government at first refuses to consider the idea, claiming that it has already made such loans to Poland in 1937.

April 17: France agrees to extend a 1 billion frank loan to Poland for the purchase of military equipment and supplies. The first shipment of brand new 30 heavy 155 mm artillery pieces is to leave in May for the Romania port of Constanta.

April 18: The Soviet Union proposes a triple alliance with UK and France. Both countries accept. A secret clause in the agreement obliges Britain to not declare war on Soviet Union should it invade Poland.

April 28: Hitler renounces German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact.

MAY 1939

May 6: Carl Friedrich Goerdeler tells the British government that a secret pact between the Soviets and the Nazis is planned with the goal of dividing eastern Europe between them. He also suggests that the state of the German economy is abysmal, threatening the survival of Hitler. If a strong show of support is made for Poland, Hitler will not invade the country.

Under the impression that he is not getting through, Goerdeler travels to Rome to meet with the Pope. He tells the Pope what he told the British government.

May 11: The French cargo ships begin to arrive in the Romanian port of Constanta with arms for Poland.

May 13: Hitler accuses France of trying to spark a continental war by sending arms to Poland.

May 14: After Goerdeler leaves the Vatican, the Church hierarchy is in conflict over Church policy—some suggest that the course of the Pope will bring ruin on the Church. But the Pope reminds the Cardinals that the Church has always been political. Moreover, while he is a Pole, and he certainly does not want Hitler to attack Poland, his only goal is peace in Europe. And the freedom of the German Church from the horrors of Hitler's dictatorship. We have made concessions to him and he has betrayed our trust, tells the Cardinals. Politicians have also made concessions to him, and this has only emboldened him. But he won't make concessions any more. You don't make concessions to the Devil--he tells the Cardinals that he is convinced that if they do not adapt a firmer stance, the suffering of the German Church will only grow. His critics are convinced, or , at least, cannot openly defy a man who is only pursuing what he believes will maintain peace on the continent and attempting to obtain the freedom of the German Church by creating conditions in Germany ripe for fall of Hitler.

The Pope is told by his German advisers that Gerdeler's information about the state of the German economy creates a window of opportunity for causing a fall of Hitler—if the Vatican can convince France and England to make a significant show of military support for Poland, Hitler will not be able to invade right away. But the wait will only exacerbate the economic problems at home and these will soon take precedence for him and may even embroil him completely. It is a gamble but it may just work.

May 22: Pact of Steel is signed. Hitler announces that this is a defensive measure in response to the French arms shipments to Poland.

JUNE 1939

June 8: Wilhelm Canaris's goal has always been to remove Hitler from power in Germany. The election of a Polish Pope has been an unexpected but powerful development that was causing problems to Hitler's plans of isolating Poland and then attacking her. The French would have never agreed to further military aid to the country without the Vatican's pressure. Now it was Britain's turn, and Canaris was aware that the Pope was secretly communicating with the British government regarding a significant military aid package. There was talk of Britain selling Poland at least 100 Spitfire fighters. Churchill supported the idea, but not Chamberlain.

Such aid meant that both powers were willing to act, and that meant that should war come, their actions may escalate. Manstein's greatest fear was a French invasion from the West. While it was only several months ago an unlikely possibility, with the French lending Poland a billion franks and its armament industry churning out artillery for Poland by the dozens a week, it suddenly wasn't so remote. Even if they did not invade or do much if the war came, Poland was getting new equipment that it did not have, and her military potential was growing. For instance, Poles were now deploying 100 155mm French guns that previously they could not dream about. and more of these were on the way. Poland's domestic production has also shifted toward emergency arms production, and they had an additional 200 Boffors 37mm guns, for a total of nearly 2000. By the end of summer they will have nearly 3000 of these and hundreds more anti aircraft guns. The numbers were changing things in ways that no one anticipated.

Canaris wondered that summer what it was that he could do to further cause problems for Hitler. He was amply aware of the sorry state of the German economy and the social instability that a delay of war would cause. So how could he cause such a delay? What additional complication could he engineer? It would have to involve the planned invasion of Poland. By mid June, he had the perfect answer—use the Schwarze Kapelle operatives inside the high command to obtain and then leak Fall Weiss plans to the Poles via the Vatican. There are several men who would have access to some if not the entirety of the plan: Generaloberst Franz Halder, the Chief of the Army General Staff and General Henning von Tresckow, chief of operations at the HQ of Kluge's Army Group Center. Once they have the plans, they can pass them to the Vatican through Josef Muller, who is a close confidant of Cardinal Pacelli. But will the Poles believe the genuineness of the plan? And will they be able to use it in any way?

In a meeting with Tresckow, the general tells him that the Poles would benefit from additional notes about the plan, namely, what kinds of deployments would frustrate it, though he belies that they already know the most obvious one—to pull their troops back from the frontiers but can’t do that for political reasons. Canaris decides after the meeting that it really doesn't matter if the Poles believe in the plan or not—all that he really needs is for Hitler to know that they have it because that will cause delays in launching the war.

A less probable set of butterflies from the first try.

In Germany, the reaction to the election of a Polish Pope sends shock waves through the Nazi leadership. Hitler, in a secret meeting with his top henchmen, decides that he wants the Polish Pope out of the Vatican, the sooner the better. While he would never contemplate a similar act against an Italian or a German Pope--any of the civilized people--he believes that nobody will really care if a Slavic Pope should die and that the Church will not really support a man who was elected by some bizarre fluke.

A secret plot is hastily conceived to assassinate the pontiff and an attempt is made in May that year, but fails--the gun misfires, having been stored in a damp Italian basement several days prior; the bullet only grazes the Pontiff's ear. The would be assassin, a Polish socialist, is captured and soon his links to the Abwehr are uncovered, but Mussolini orders the link kept secret. A Soviet agent, however, delivers the truth to Stalin, who concocts a deadly game: if he can make Hitler into a barbarian, he makes himself look all the better. On Stalin's orders, the link between Abwehr and the assassination attempt is leaked by Soviet agents to the Italian press. After three days, Italy's Catholics are on fire with anger and incredulity. Because Catholicism is Italy's state religion, some suggest that Hitler had attacked Italy itself. Frightened that the building Catholic anger might focus on him personally and that he might lose power to some popular rebellion, Mussolini distances himself from Hitler publicly and declares the Italian-German alliance over.

In America, top investment bankers' links to Hitler are revealed by an article in the New York Times. In response to the New York Times article, the Congress, whose members are feeling tremendous political pressure from emotionally agitated Polish and Catholic constituencies and the representatives of the local political machines that are built on their votes, opens an investigation into the activities of US investment houses in Nazi Germany. In face of growing public pressure and comments by the President that "we don't do business with killers", many banks freeze Nazi accounts.

In Britain, the press follows the lead of their American colleges and reveals links between "the most evil man of our time" and the British establishment. Incensed, Churchill calls on the floor of Parliament for the civilized world to renounce its ties to Hitler and his "empire of evil."

The Polish Pope then declares the Concordat with Nazi Germany null and void and declares that Fascism is a greater threat to civilization than Communism.

Stalin, in a carefully staged PR move, declares that Hitler has become a menace to civilization that must be resisted by not only all men of faith but also by all men of reason.

In Germany, men around Ludwig Beck, mindful of the Pope's statement that Germany has become a menace to civilization worse than Stalin's Communism, facing economic ruin as foreign money stops, and possibly facing invasion should Hitler's plans for Poland be permitted to come about, decide to remove Hitler and his bad of criminals from power. Walther von Brauchitsch comments when Ludwig Beck tells him of the plan to remove Hitler and his thugs: ""I myself won't do anything, but I won't stop anyone else from acting."

On June 1, 1939, Otto Skorzenny's troops arrest Hitler and top Nazis in a 1 AM raid.
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