A Plethora of Princes - (Thread 4) : Twisting in the sun

[Grey Wolf]

OK, I don't have either full details or full confidence in this (what is to come) but if I don't write something on it soon I'll simply consign it back to the Archives of failure. A reminder of what has gone before :-

Thread 1 - Cumberland Rex
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=11159

Thread 2 - A New Europe
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=11185

Thread 3 - On Eagles' Wings
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=11215

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Situational Overview

It is the late 1840s, in a timeline that initially diverged with the death in infancy of the Duke of Kent's daughter Alexandrina Victoria. Within the UK, this brought Ernest Augustus, Duke of Cumberland nearer to the throne and increased his influence over both his surviving brothers. The effect of this was to veto Catholic Emancipation, leading to an uprising in Ireland. As Cumberland moved to establish an Ultra Tory regime and set aside the second of his brothers, the unrest in Ireland merged with that in the rest of the UK and turned into a full-scale civil war 1832-1836. This eventually ended with an independent Ireland adopting an Orleans prince as king, the overthrow and exile of King Ernest I Augustus, the splitting off of Hannover under King Adolphus I (Duke of Cambridge) and the accession of Cumberland's son as King George V to a United Kingdom where his power was severely limited by the victorious Radical-Reformist coalition.

These changes have knock-on effects, which include the accession of Prince Charles of Mecklenburg (Ernest Augustus' brother-in-law) as King of Greece, a full-scale war between France and the Netherlands over Belgian independence which results in a son of Louis Philippe becoming king of a Belgium which includes all of Limburg and Luxembourg, victory for Miguel's conservatives in Portugal, and as a knock-on of this victory for Don Carlos in the First Carlist War in Spain.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, the absence of British naval power prevents an effective coalition reforming against Mohammed Ali of Egypt. Instead, France comes down on his side, and with this new alliance, Egypt is able to be secure in crushing the Syrian revolt and beating back Ottoman attempts at reconquest.

The late 1830s see rebellions in both Upper and Lower Canada. Only just recovering from the civil war, Britain is ineffectual. The United States intervenes on the side of the democratic exiles and imposes friendly regimes in both Canadas which now become effectively vassals of the USA, although still colonies of Britain.

On the back of this, Martin Van Buren wins re-election as president. In 1844, he and his opponent (Clay) come to an agreement not to work for the annexation of Texas for fear of what it would do to their parties. Instead, after his victory, President Clay becomes embroiled in the Yucatan, where the independence movement has asked for international aid.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Twisting In The Sun - Part 1

A Plethora of Princes - Twisting in the Sun

1845 - The replacement of Purvis in command of the British squadron in the River Plate brings greater harmony to the Anglo-French force. In November, the commanders agree on a show of force and sail up the Parana River, intending to show the Argentine Republic that it cannot prevent the blockaders from imposing their will. They destroy the shore batteries and open up the Paraguay River to navigation. This brings a declaration of war from Paraguay's leader, Carlos Antonio Lopez and renewed calls from the international community in Montevideo for Britain and France to formally establish a protectorate over them.

In the UK, the ageing Grey is replaced as Prime Minister of the Whig/Reformist/Moderate coalition in early 1846 by the Earl of Auckland. Seeing drift in the River Plate, and keen to stamp his authority upon the situation, Auckland meets with the Duke of Dalmatia, the French Prime Minister and together they agree a plan of war. A joint Anglo-French force lands in the Banda Oriental, whilst a Royal Navy squadron seizes the Argentine possession of the Malvinas.

The was lasts for two bloody years, dragging in once again the Empire of Brazil and involving fully the nation of Paraguay as allies of the Anglo-French force. President Rosas of the Argentine Republic is able to portray himself as the saviour of the national spirit and sees a rise in his popularity in the early stages of the war. This allows his regime to survive as his Uruguayan allies are defeated and his own armies driven back upon Buenos Aries. Only the invasion of the Argentine Republic itself sees a collapse of his popularity, and the final act is the siege and storming of Buenos Aries by an Anglo-French army whilst the Paraguayans ravage the countryside.

1848

1848 is an election year in the United States. After having defeated all calls for the annexation of Texas throughout his presidency, President Clay is well aware that the issue will raise its head as a major one in the forthcoming campaign. Looking to pre-empt this, and seeing Britain and France distracted by the final stages of war in the River Plate, he responds to calls from the Yucatan Republic for aid, and dispatches an expeditionary force to the peninsular.

France is further distracted by an uprising in Paris in February 1848 which has grown out of economic difficulties and has been exacerbated by the cost of war in the Banda Oriental. Faced with mounting tension, King Louis Philippe I abdicates his thrown in favour of his son, who accedes as King Ferdinand I. Ferdinand acts quickly to restore public confidence and to bring about an end to the war in South America.

Meanwhile, January 1848 has seen an autonomist revolution in Sicily, seeking autonomy if not independence from Naples. King Ferdinand II of the Two Sicilies bows to pressure to grant a constitution, setting off a constitutionalist movement across the Italian peninsular which sees similar concessions in Rome, Florence, Parma, Modena and Turin. Italian Federalists of the Gioberti persuasion push a Neo-Guelphist agenda, calling for a federation of sovereign states under the auspices of the Pope. Ferdinand II leans towards this, both as a means of gaining support for his retention of Sicily and because in action they will be undermining the unitary republican plans of the followers of Mazzini's movement.

Grey Wolf

 

[JHPier]

I may have gotten this wrong, but IIRC Argentina at this time was known as The United Provinces of La Plata and thet Rosas wasn't its president but merely the governor of the most powerful province, Buenas Aires, and he had his enemies among the caudillo's of the other provinces, notably Entre Rios.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I may have gotten this wrong, but IIRC Argentina at this time was known as The United Provinces of La Plata and thet Rosas wasn't its president but merely the governor of the most powerful province, Buenas Aires, and he had his enemies among the caudillo's of the other provinces, notably Entre Rios.

Oh well, you may be right, I couldn't really understand what the hell was going on. He employs a fleet and an army, and is called "the Argentine dictator" in some dispatches, but at the same time the book keeps referring to Buenos Ayres so I guess your way of explaining it makes more sense. Did the other provinces not follow his lead ? I got the impression that that was so...

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

http://www.encyclopedia.com/html/R/Rosas-J1u.asp

In 1835, Rosas again became governor; by machinations and arrangements with other provincial chiefs, he assumed the dictatorship of most of Argentina. Rosas's politics were, in practice, antifederalist despite his formal allegiance. He came to represent the hegemony of Buenos Aires

http://historicaltextarchive.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=106
By 1826 the people began to realize something had to be done to unify the country. So there was a meeting in Buenos Aires. A new constitution was written and Bernardino Rivadavia was elected president. The provinces took offense to this, so Rivadavia resigned and civil war ensued from 1826-1828.
It was at this time of civil war that the most influential man in 19th century Argentine history arose, Juan Manuel de Rosas. In 1829 he was elected to a three year term as a federalist, meaning he was an advocate of a government sharing power between the national and provincial sectors, as opposed to an unitario, who would support the idea of a strong central government. Rosas was really nothing more than a gaucho (an Argentine cowboy). But he managed to make alliance with the Catholic Church and even was successful in enacting laws to improve education. Yet despite his success, he left after his term ended in 1832 to help drive out natives in the south and open up more lands for civilization. These achievements of course made Rosas a national hero, and all the while his wife was back in Buenos Aires stirring things up. This would eventually give Juan Manuel de Rosas the chance to again be the savior of Argentina. As the situation worsened in Buenos Aires, it became ever easier for Rosas to ride back in and take power. He did this in 1835 and was elected to a five year term as president. What he did was establish a dictatorship. Opponents were exiled or killed, and school children were taught of the "Great Rosas".

I guess I should not just rely on books but check with the internet in future. However, this would appear to indicate a president of the confederation from 1826, and that this is the office that Rosas held from 1835, though turning it into a dictatorship ? Or is this latter site incorrect ?

Grey Wolf

 

[DuQuense]

Thing To Concider

Lets see
Queen Victoria dies in childhood, bringing other people to power.
They oppose the necessary reforms being proposed.
Great Britain turns inward, Not involved in France.
Different People come to power in, France.
This leads to Different outcome in Belgium.

== Greater Belgium is closer to France, Britain has been weakened.
==?Will this lead to Holland looking East to the Germania's?
There is a natural attraction between the two, which OTL Britain worked to prevent.

== ?What will this different Belgium mean for the Congo, and the Race For Africa?

The chaos in Britain leads to different outcome for Britain and Austria, in the Eastern
Mediterranean.
MA in Egypt, has more success in establishing His personal Egyptian Empire,
as France is more supportive of him ATL.

== MA has financial, & Legitimacy Problems, that will Bite his Sucessor after He Dies.
== With France and Russia on opposite sides here, ?What happens to Franco/Russian
relations in the 1870's- GW1 time frame?
== With France Paying more attention to Egypt, and North Africa,
? What does this Butterfly for Indo-China in the 1870's -'90's?.

The attention at home prevents Britain from paying needed attention to Canada.
US -GB/Canada War. US Wins, [Big Surprise]
No Negotiation leading to 49 parallel Comprise

== Late forties -fifties was when US Industrialization took off.
==? How does all this affect the British investment in the US?.
== With the new relation with Canada,
?Is there more, US investment in Canadian/US trans-Border Infrastructure?,
[Railroad, International Companies, Etc.]
==? What effect will a increased US presence in Canada,
have on the Northern end of the Underground Railroad?
== Whe Have US Troops in the Yucatan instead of Texas.
== ?Will this earlier over seas adventure, Change the willingness of the US, to consider, non continuous territories?.
== If so, ?What does this mean for the Caribbean in General .

No Annexation of Texas, in '45. Texas continues as independent Nation.

== ?What Happens with the Texas/New Mexico Border Problems?
== ?What happens, in California, with the Great Bear State?
== ? Can whe butterfly away the '48, Sutter Mill?.
With a independent Texas, Controlling New Mexico, & a Independent California,
==? What happens with Deserat?.

Great Britain is involved in a war with the US in 1839.
OTL this is the year of the Opium Wars .
I assume that GB, doesn't get involved here

== ? How does this Affect the Attempts at reform in China?
== With out this first one, Does France still have it's own version in 1857?.

If not France remains More focused on Africa, and less on Asia.

And the Biggie

== ? How does this new Republican Britain, react to the India Mutiny?
[May be different "Cassi Belle" But the tensions remain.]









==

 

[Grey Wolf]

Definitely a good set of questions Du Quesne, which should also include what's happening in India as the Sikh Wars will not have seen full British participation. Timelines like this do certainly tend to get a bit out of control !

I'm just finishing off the Oregon issue in what I'm writing now, but you are right I do need to go back in time and see what's happening with an independent Texas. As for the 'Bear Flag Republic' there is definitely in its OTL existence an huge impetus in Polk's administrations pressurising of Mexico, and without that I rather doubt that we see an attempt at independence from an area non-contihuous with the USA (well, only contiguous with Oregon I guess).

Deseret is another thing I'm going to need to get a background in. I don't know what Sutter Mill is but I'll look it up.

One thing to say is that the OTL 1848 election saw slavery as a massive dominating issue, because of the whole question of the implementation of this in the territories gained from the Mexico war. Here, no such territories have been gained, and although in 1849 Northern Oregon will be annexed, I doubt it was considered viable slave territory, even if the North/South divide on the issue had not existed.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 2

A Plethora of Princes - Twisting in the Sun : Part 2

The settlement imposed by the victorious Anglo-French forces in the Banda Orientale is viewed as a violation of the Monroe Doctrine in the United States. Both Brazil and Paraguay gain some border areas of land, whilst Paraguay also gains hegemony over the Northern Argentine province. The Banda Oriental is made a protectorate of Britain and France, whilst retaining its local independence as the Republic of Uruguay.

It is election year in the USA, and President Clay finds himself under attack for not doing enough to take on the Old World powers. The simmering issue of Oregon again comes to a head, and the cry of "Fifty-four forty or fight" is heard. Despite the drain of the campaign in Yucatan, Clay directs US representatives to make it clear to London that the United States will take possession of the disputed territory.

This territory, generally known as Northern Oregon, is under the auspices of the Hudson Bay Company, whose Ruperts Land province has a charter to expand to the Pacific coast. Some progress has been made, and small British colonies exist on the Pacific coast, but it is a long way from being defensible. The issue drags on, and the lack of any conclusion begins to affect the American presidential election. Clay orders army patrols into the disputed land, and dispatches small-scale naval units up the coast. But the government of the Earl of Auckland remains resolute.

Lewis Cass (Democrat) wins the US election, defeating President Clay (Whig) on a wave of popular frustration. The death in January 1849 of the Earl of Auckland throws British politics into a flux as the opposition Radicals demand a general election. Not until February is this able to be held, returning a Radical majority that unites with the left wing of the Reformists to form a coalition government. William Lovett becomes Prime Minister and includes Radicals of both moderate and extremist persuasion, and the left-wing Reformists in his government. This attempt to bridge the divide and hold together his coalition is wracked by tensions from the start, and Lovett finds himself unable to oppose American policy in Oregon. In the Summer of 1849, with President Cass dispatching further patrols into the disputed land, Lovett signs away all British rights to Oregon below 54' 40".

Grey Wolf

 

[DuQuense]

IIRC John Sutter was a Failed "Jack of Trades" who had a contract from the Russian Colony outside San Francisco, to Build and Run a Water Mill,

In 1848 while working on the Mill, One of the Workmen spotted something glittering in the Stream, by the end of 1849, San Francisco, was one of the fastest growing towns in the world.

ITTL, with no Independence in 1845, John Sutter may not even make it to California. Butterflies all over the west, No Virginia City, Silver, Etc.

======

With no Texas > Utah > California, Whe probably get a Northern Pacific, With the Golden Spike in Montana, instead of Utah.

 

[Grey Wolf]

IIRC John Sutter was a Failed "Jack of Trades" who had a contract from the Russian Colony outside San Francisco, to Build and Run a Water Mill,

In 1848 while working on the Mill, One of the Workmen spotted something glittering in the Stream, by the end of 1849, San Francisco, was one of the fastest growing towns in the world.

ITTL, with no Independence in 1845, John Sutter may not even make it to California. Butterflies all over the west, No Virginia City, Silver, Etc.

Of course, if someone DOES spot the gold (and it doesn't have to be Sutter), then Mexico suddenly has a gold rush on its hands ?

What's Russia doing during this time ?

And France in Mexico ? If things look difficult, Mexico may well turn to France, but the further one gets away from 1848 the more likely it would be for France to actively engage.

And that's without having written the conclusion to events in Italy yet !

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Deseret is confusing me

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Smith,_Jr.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigham_Young

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Deseret

As far as I can see, it was only in 1846-7 that Brigham Young led the Mormons from Nauvoo first into Wyoming and then Utah (as they are now). This was in the middle of the Mexican War, and their first actions to try to push for statehood seem to imply to me that at the time of their moving they expected the US to win, as indeed Polk had been pressing for the cession of this territory since his accession in 1844/5. Would they still have headed into this land if it remained firmly Mexican, and there was no immediate prospect of it being acquired by the USA ? What would Mexico have thought about it ? On the one hand, a Mormon buffer would look attractive, on the other there is the example of Texas, where a borderland settled by outsiders became ungovernable and eventually independent (although this is not recognised by Mexico, it is de facto)

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Just noticed a stupid error of mine. Despite winning the election in November 1848, Lewis Cass is not president until March 1849. Therefore the manoevrings over the Winter are still carried out by President Clay's administration, and Cass reaps the benefits of this in the Summer with the British cession of all rights to the territory

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Discussion about the Americas

International events in the Americas in this period in OTL are rather confusing !

Apart from Deseret, already mentioned below, we have the following to intertwine or explain how they go in this timeline :-

Texas - OTL Polk's pressure on Mexico undoubtedly accellerated Mexico's willingness to grant Texas recognition as an independent state. President Anson Jones waited for both this, and the US agreement to annex Texas, before putting the choice before his nation. In the ATL, Polk is never elected and the Whigs and Democrats come to an agreement to keep annexation off the agenda for fear of splitting their parties, principally over slavery (this is the Van Buren-Clay agreement of OTL). Thus, it seems less likely that Mexico would agree to recognise Texan independence in 1845. However, in 1848 in the ATL with the USA involved in Yucatan, and later pressing Britain to accept the worst possible option in Oregon, its going to be clear to Mexico that the Texan problem has a potential to involve the USA, and that President Cass is not of the same mind as Van Buren and Clay were over annexation. I would see this as a spur to recognition.

Deseret has to come into this equation somewhere too - perhaps it is seen that if the Mormons are recognised too then a buffer of some sort can be established between the USA and Mexico ? Yucatan is certainly going to be foremost in their minds of what might happen otherwise - Mexican territory declaring independence and asking in US forces for help.

The border dispute between Texas and Mexico is another problem (see attached jpeg...if I remember to attach it!). The yellow area is the minimum size of Texas, the shaded area the maximum. The principle disagreement is over the river boundary in the South/South-West, but its clear that a maximum Texas would also run up against Deseret thus creating tensions which were absent in OTL.

btw can anyone find me the Constitution of the Republic of Texas on the net ? I can't work out what the presidential terms were, or whether the head of government was more like that in a parliamentary system in that his term could be curtailed.

1844 OTL the Dominican Republic gains its independence from Spain. This seems rather less likely under a Carlist monarchy who would continue the policies of Ferdinand VII with regard to colonies.

1846 Liberia declares its independence as a republic. I need to look into this to see why, how it was viewed in the US, what the Whigs thought of it and whether Clay had any personal views on it

1847 Faustin Soulouque declares himself Emperor of Haiti... well, why not ?

And 1848 with the Yucatan. Governor Mendez, one assumes is the President of Yucatan, though I don't know how formal the constitution was (anyone ?). I do know that the Yucatan was one of only a few states to recognise the independence of Texas OTL. Again, OTL, Yucatan's 1848 appeal was actually that they offered sovereignty to whichever nation could suppress the Maya rebellion - they sent these letters to the USA, France and Britain. OTL, Mexico flush with money after Guadeloupe-Hidalgo agreed to do this and thus re-regained their rebellious province. In the ATL, the USA is responding to a request for help. I don't think the Yucatan has made it explicit in the ATL that sovereignty is up for grabs, but its probably been secretly mentioned in discussions with US officials. At the least, the agreed consensus is that Yucatan will become a US protectorate, rather like Uruguay has become an Anglo-French one.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I forgot to attach the map of Texas !

 

[fhaessig]

Still extremely good from what I can judge ( not much, on this subject ).

I have, however, a question. The french prime minister is the duker of Dalmatia, which land is, of course, nowhere near France. While I suspect this is an OTL character, I don't have information about him. Could you provide a bit more details, please?

 

[Grey Wolf]

Still extremely good from what I can judge ( not much, on this subject ).

I have, however, a question. The french prime minister is the duker of Dalmatia, which land is, of course, nowhere near France. While I suspect this is an OTL character, I don't have information about him. Could you provide a bit more details, please?

He's definitely an OTL character, you're talking Marshal Soult here !

http://www.answers.com/main/ntquery...icolas+Jean+de+Dieu+Soult&gwp=8&curtab=2222_1

http://www.answers.com/topic/list-of-state-leaders-in-1846

Grey Wolf

 

[Faeelin]

How'd America end up in the Yucatan?

 

[Grey Wolf]

How'd America end up in the Yucatan?

The Yucatan Republic invited it (or Britain or France) in to help them deal with the Maya revolt. President Clay saw an expeditionary force as a way of diverting pressure over calls for the annexation of Texas.

Grey Wolf

 

[fhaessig]

He's definitely an OTL character, you're talking Marshal Soult here !

http://www.answers.com/main/ntquery...icolas+Jean+de+Dieu+Soult&gwp=8&curtab=2222_1

http://www.answers.com/topic/list-of-state-leaders-in-1846

Grey Wolf

Thanks, I had forgotten about his title.