A Plethora of Princes - The American Civil War

[Grey Wolf]

The US Civil War, let's see if we can make this make sense

Basic points :-

The action from the Union is LATER than OTL; it may still come first as an overt act but in this ATL they have delayed longer due to Adams not wanting to be decisive, and only when Sumner and his faction force action does he take any. The idea is that during the meantime the secession movement has been getting stronger, and arming has been underway, not only from its own resources but from the Republic of Texas.

The involvement of Texas is intended to be non-belligerent, but Southern orientated. If the Union wanted to it could certainly come up with a cassus belli and declare war on them, but in the circumstances this is not the brightest thing to do, especially as Britain and France are the guarantors of Texan independence.

The United Provinces of Central America is going to head into great difficulties. President Loring will see his best units (which have become auxiliary US army units) head off to the South. Meanwhile over the border the US garrison in the Republic of the Yucatan has seen mutiny and civil war amongst them. As secessionist movements break out in the UPCA the secession-backing Loring is going to find himself fighting against principles he backs in the USA and accepting the aid of Yucatecan forces to put down his own revolts.

I envisage the US Navy as being in a poor shape after the combination of 4 years of Radical Party rule with their own agenda, and a rapidly-developing change in naval technology emanating from Europe which will leave much of what does exist obselete.

Mexico is not the basket-case of OTL, it has California and also S New Mexico directly under its rule, and has recently invested heavily in California as a response to US machinations during the 1860s. This has included increased naval spending, though with the revolution in naval technology now underway Mexico will find its lovely new ships are increasingly obscelent.

Deseret has no love for the USA, and as an autonomous province of Mexico it can call upon the federal Mexican army in time of need. I imagine the Mormons to be quite well armed and drilled. In OTL they provided very professional recruits to the military government in California and I can see an analogue here in their being used as THE federal troops of choice in that province, especially given the lure of gold and the dangers of US infiltration. As a quid pro quo, Deseret probably owns some of the best artillery and fortifications in the Mexican Army.

The run-up to war has been gathering pace since the 1866 mid-term elections returned abolitionist candidates in the North, it gathered pace with the choice of Sumner for VP running mate and the schism within the Democrats which made an Adams win appear inevitable, and after the November 1868 election its really taken off. Adams has vacillated but by early Summer is being forced into action by his party...

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The ACW - Part 2

I don't want to write a blow-by-blow account of the US Civil War, I suppose it could be done but there would be so many factors to take into account I'm not sure I could do it !

One aspect that is going to be far more important than in OTL is that of the USA's neighbours. I've already mentioned the major players in the South (Texas, Mexico with Deseret, Yucatan and the UPCA) but the North is of some vital importance too.

During the 1860s Labouchere and Disraeli have focused to some degree on setting up Rupertsland as a viable and defendable colony in its own right. They have also been laying the groundwork for attempts to reclaim direct influence over Upper and Lower Canada, both of which remain very US-orientated. The outbreak of the war in early-mid 1869 has the curious effect of turning things on their head in London. Labouchere and Disraeli are instinctively pro-South in that anything which weakens the Union is a good thing for British interests. But in the Commons and the Senate they are defeated, charged with being pro-slavery and a motion of No Confidence from Reform Party leader Gladstone brings down the government. In the ensuing election a Radical-Reformist government replaces the Whig-Moderate one. The new British Radical leadership instinctively back their American counterparts.

This sees a realignment of policy in the Canadas, and an increasingly large split with France where King Ferdinand's government backs the Confederacy.

An added, and odd, complication is the Russian Empire, still reeling from its defeat in the General European War, one result of which was to bring about the emancipation of the serfs. British neutrality in that war is spun a different way by the new Radical government in London, and Russia's historical friendship with the USA, based on rivalry with Britain, receives a strange twist as the three join up in the North as friends, if not allies.

The British Prime Minister authorises secret talks with the Union leadership, and in return for British aid in the form of weapons, finances and materiele President Adams agrees to a British proposal that would see Upper and Lower Canada established as independent republics, in association with the British Crown. This is felt to be an acceptable compromise in London, the British Radicals seeing in it a guarantee for the rights and self-determination of the Canadians on the one hand, and of a paramount role for Britain before any other power on the other.

I envisage the delay in action on the Union side to have allowed the secession of Maryland and Kentucjy with the other Southern states. The first Union offensive uses federal forces from the Indian Wars that the Radicals have been pursuing fiercely and penetrates into Virginia. The Confederate Congress meeting in Birmingham, Alabama decides on that location as its confederal capital and uses the auxiliary units shipped home from the UPCA to meet the immediate threat and halt the Union advance.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The ACW - Part 3/3

Instinct versus Reality

Instinctively this ATL would seem to offer the best opportunity for the CSA to survive its birth pains, but realistically with Britain backing the Union I cannot see that happening. France is going to take its eye so completely off the other balls it has in the air, that it finds itself in a war on the other side of the Atlantic against both Britain and the Union. With France staying neutral, there seems little likelihood that Spain would do more than be favourably disposed towards the South. Ditto Texas and Mexico. When it begins to appear that the Union will win, I can imagine a scramble to disassociate themselves with the CSA, though at the same time both countries would probably benefit from an influx of Southern refugees.

I see a violent start, with more Southern troops than in OTL veterans and already in the field. These would include the auxiliary units shipped in from the UPCA, as well as units from the Texas borderlands. I can see several major battles in a desperate campaign across Kentucky, Virginia (no West Virginia here) and Maryland. Maybe there is a civil war in Missouri, between slave-owners and abolitionists (it depends on what the status of the state is - what would it have become under popular sovereignty without either Texas or the ex-Mexican lands ?). The capital of the Confederacy is in Birmingham, Alabama and at first the Confederate coastline is pretty secure, what with friendly Texan warships enforcing a sort of Open Seas approach.

Perhaps by Winter 1869 there is the beginning of a feeling that the Confederates better begin to see success in the next campaign season, that perhaps they are leaving it a little late in the day to get themselves established. With the federal capital of Washington DC back in Union hands, and with Maryland mostly under their boot, the 1870 camapigning season opens with major offensives in Virginia and Kentucky. On the Confederate side there is a diversionary raid into Missouri which for a while captures the administration of that state, but the weight of Union armies forces the main Confederate armies up against the second-row states (I can't find another way of describing them, the border is not a river and as far as I can see its somethng like the 36-and-a-half parallel)

By this time, British support is being felt most especially in naval circles, with quickly-built second rate ironclads arriving to bolster the Union navy. By Autumn 1870 the Confederate armies have been forced South into Tennessee and North Carolina, and have lost their foothold in Missouri. Their coasts are blockaded, and the CSA's allies are beginning to be more careful in their dealings with the Union.

1871 is clearly the year of decision. The Winter has seen the CSA build up enormous stockpiles of weapons and materiele, train up new legions of men, and gamble its future finances on the dream of victory. The controversial plan adopted by Confederate supremo Beaurtegard sees a drive up the Mississippi with one army, whilst the other pushes up West of the Allegheny (?) range. The first takes Saint Louis and briefly threatens Chicago before being defeated in detail, and the remnants driven back. The other also crosses the Ohio and gets as far as Columbus before over-reaching its supply lines.

With Union armies advancing down the coast through the Carolinas and into Georgia, and with both major thrusts now stopped, the Summer of 1871 provides the denouement for the Confederate cause. With only the army retreating down the centre remaining in good order, the Union is able to outflank it from both West and East, and supported by amphibious landings made possible by near total naval superiority, to encircle Birmingham almost before the march on the Confederate capital truly begins.

Confederate units begin to evaporate, fleeing across the borders into Texas or Mexico, or even to Cuba where the Spanish, after a lot of deliberation, give them asylum. But the Union is not interested in the armies which have run away, only in that which remains in the field. September 1871 sees the complete encirclement and investment of Birmingham. Late November sees the eventual surrender of its starving defenders.

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

I'm going to call this part 9 in compling of Grey Wolf's Story...