A Plethora of Princes - into the twentieth century

Grey Wolf said:
But turn it around. The potential for Russian domination of the Kingdom of Hawaii would surely spur a response from the USA ???

Grey Wolf

Why? With no line of comminication to the Phillippines to protect, why would the US care? Even in OTL there was enormous Congressional resistance to annexation.
 
In OTL, Austria had a small naval force based in the Far East and a trading sphere. And that was with OTL's problems.

I agree regarding Austria's dominant concern being the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, and the Red Sea. John knows more about it than I do, but somehow Austria had a trading position in the Soudan and surrounding area, and I would see no reason for this to be mitigated greatly.

China, or 'The Chinas' as they would probably be known, offer great opportunitiesd for trade. I was thinking that maybe an Austria on the up, with a recent great military victory to its name, could expand its influence here, even if it is not a major strategic interest. After all, how strategically interested in Persia was Sweden in OTL ?

Looking at the Eastern Mediterranean, things have been 'quiet' there for forty years, unless I misremember my own timeline ! The dualities of Russia-Ottomans and France-Egypt still exist. In a sense, Britain and Austria have less directly at stake, but perhaps more indirectly at stake, what with the Suez Canal being an important route to India, and for Austria being the key to its thriving Red Sea trade. That neither Austria nor Britain has been directly involved in conflict would help their position with both dualities.

I don't see the dualities as being equal. Russia and the Ottoman Empire are bound under the successor treaty to Unkiar Skelessi. There was no Straits Convention in this ATL, and Unkiar Skelessi remained in force until the c1870s IIRC. Thus, the successor treaty builds on this, but recognises that Russia no longer has any position of protector towards the Ottomans. Its more of a convention between equals now, and the fruits of this would have been seen in the involvement of both parties in the invasion and carving up of Persia. Russia leases bases off the Ottomans, probably being facilities at Smyrna, and the entire base at Lemnos, these being where the Russian Mediterranean Fleet has its forward bases. Russian warships have automatic right of passage through the Straits.

France-Egypt has always been more of an alliance and influence thing. Franbce's role is important but has gone through periods of waxing and waning. In theory France could cease its political involvement, but its economic, military procurement and bureaucratic influence would remain. However, I certainly don't see the young King Charles XI as being the kind of person to withdraw French influence from anywhere !

Regarding Ireland and Britain, the 1830s civil war would have delivered a big hit to population. For example, in addition to the battles across Ireland, the war there was climaxed by the massacre and expulsion of the majority of the Protestant population of Ulster who settled in Western Scotland and the North-West of England. I see this as mitigating the population effects of any famine. In addition, the new kingdom would be established with French bureaucracy and proven management - the situation which in OTL led to the worst effects of the Potato Famine would be eradicated. Other chaoses may reign in the immediate aftermath of the war, but I don't see the pressure as being the same.

Later in the century, after decades of growth and re-establishment Irish emigration probably becomes an issue again. I could imagine some certainly head to the independent Canadas; beyond that is confusing because would Irishmen from an independent kingdom head to British colonies ? Might they not be more tempted to go to Texas, or Uruguay or some such ?

Grey Wolf
 
Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
Why? With no line of comminication to the Phillippines to protect, why would the US care? Even in OTL there was enormous Congressional resistance to annexation.

With a direct border with Russia in Alaska-Yukon, it seemed natural that the USA would be sensitive to any Russian expansionism.

The question is, if they aren't then who is ? I am not looking for anyone to annex Hawaii, just to counter Russian influence with their own. I was under the impression that the USA in OTL was doing this for decades, but maybe I was wrong there.

I see Britain as less focused in this area, and France also. This could well end up with Russia adopting a protectorate over Hawaii, which would certainly be different !

Grey Wolf
 
How does the USA have a border in the Yukon? Isn't Rupertsland still British, or did I miss something? I know that the USA got the Oregon Territory, but I believe that the Northern Oregon Territory is only the southern part of British Columbia.
 
Imajin said:
How does the USA have a border in the Yukon? Isn't Rupertsland still British, or did I miss something? I know that the USA got the Oregon Territory, but I believe that the Northern Oregon Territory is only the southern part of British Columbia.

Russian claims to Alaska stretched down whilst US claims to 'Oregon' stretched up. Britain was squeezed out in a period of weakness. The Klondike Crisis of the mid 1870s led to a sortiong out of borders, and the war in the 1880s led to the British cession of the Yukon to Russia as part of an agreement.

Grey Wolf
 
The United States and their presidents

The USA

Much as I would prefer the world to revolve around the ins and outs of European powers, one cannot escape the fact that the USA at the dawn of the twentieth century stands at the threshold of greatness. Even without the Spanish-American War in this ATL, the USA has a global presence. Sherman's interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine ensured that the USA would challenge every attempt to exert influence within the Americas by European powers. This led to war with Britain, and an eventual defeat, though as the defeat was in Argentina the actual severity of losing the struggle was mitigated. The naval defeat off Newfoundland would be more of a spur to action in the years ahead than a national humiliation, and the inroads made into Rupertsland brought Winnipeg under American control.

In the years since the Anglo-American War, the roughly two decades since the peace in the 1880s, the USA has passed through Radical Party administrations which focused again on workers and farmers and the economy, and with the renewed spirit of optimism with the opening of the Trans-Continental Canal in 1897 has entered a period where the USA believes in a global mission, whilst at the same time sees a warming of relations with Britain.

There are tensions with Russia over trade, power and influence in the Northern Pacific, and Russia's de facto acquisition of a protectorate over the Kingdom of Hawaii in the early 1900s has added to the tensions. US trade with The Chinas, with Japan and with a Vietnam where US influence in other areas is increasing, is growing mightily.

The UPCA is seeing new tensions as we approach 1910. There are moves within it to have it become a US state, rather than a quasi-independent nation that cannot do anything without Washington's say-so. The factions within the UPCA are a disparate lot - the blacks resetled there after the civil war, in autonomous mini-Liberias which merged into the federal nature of the country, the Union veterans, the veterans from the Anglo-American War, the native Hispanic and Indian peoples, the traders and entrepreneurs drawn by the canal and the new wealth, and who provide the greatest impetus towards formal merger with the USA.

The Kingdom of Miskitia however provides something of a contradiction. Its independence guaranteed by Great Britain, Miskitia refuses to play the role of US vassal, and has negotiated independent rights to its end of the canal. It maintains an independent stance on foreign affairs, and King Robert II (who is in this ATL alive and well in 1910 unlike OTL) heads a nation that looks askance at the idea of the USA annexing the UPCA.

The Republic of the Yucatan is not too thrilled with the idea, either. After having shaken off US protectorship in the wake of the US Civil War, Yucatan has developed a strong individual identity and sees its period of vassalship in a negative light. It has developed trade in the Caribbean and has strong links to the Republic of Texas. It would too not view the annexation of the UPCA as a happy act.

More importantly, perhaps, neither Britain nor France would react well to any moves towards this. The USA and Britain have seen a warming of their relationship since the end of the 1890s, and the president in Washington has to be aware of this.

At the same time, the USA has an ambivalent relationship with Russia. On the one hand they are suspicious of Russian influence in the Pacific, and angered by the protectorate over Hawaii, but on the other hand US-Russian bilateral relations remain good, and the USA supplies Russia with naval development expertise - at a price.

President Ignatius Donelly's 1896 bid for re-election fails, the US public tired after two terms of introspective Radical Party administrations, albeit under different presidents. President Mark Hanna is elected in 1896 for the Reform Party, and re-elected again in 1900, but dies in 1904 during the campaign season.

The 1904 election is thus contested between Williams J Bryan of the Radical Party and Robert La Follette of the Reform Party. Building on Hanna's legacy, La Follette wins and serves out the term 1904 to 1908.

However, by 1908 he is facing strong internal pressure within the Reform Party and his bid for re-election runs into serious problems. The controversy in the UPCA over the merchant-entrepreneur's party's wish to see the nation annexed to the USA causes problems as La Follette's negative reaction causes a backlash from the right-wing part of his party. Refusal to intervene in Hawaii causes chaos in the primaries, and eventually at the Reform Party national convention a stormy session chooses Henry Cabot Lodge as the presidential nominee.

The 1908 election is a chaotic shambles of an event. Splinters from both the Radicals and the La Follette Reformists add to the mix, and the rise of Union Labour under Euegene Debs simply creates a situation which is too close to call. In a result where all of the factions carry states, it is eventually Lodge who emerges as the winner, and who is inaugurated as president in March 1909.

Grey Wolf
 
Othniel said:
But can it effectively keep this up? Revolution is always round the bin if next said Shogun should turn out to be a bad one.

Well, you could say exactly the same about the emperor. I find it odd to suppose that the Bakufu when reformed has any greater inherent weakness than a system based around the emperor. I have stated that there would be rebellions needing to be put down, and periods of uncertainty - as there was indeed in OTL under the Meiji.

Grey Wolf
 
Maybe I should have stuck to my original impulse not to name any more presidents, but I thought it would be of some interest. I don't see it as a problem that Bryan and La Follette are both of an isolationist tendency, their main differences are on economic domestic issues and La Follette wins on that basis. It is his defeat in 1908 where overseas issues come to dominate - neither the Radicals nor La Follette's wing of the Reform Party seem to cater for the protection or advancement of US interests in the issues of the day.

I don't know if Lodge is a useful choice or not to emerge from this, but one could certainly imagine someone adopting a point of view they didn't necessarily agree with in order to get the nomination.

Of course in the ATL I could simply make people up, but as yet I prefer not to as the use of real people in different circumstances seems far more...fun !

Grey Wolf
 
The US presidential election of 1908

The 1908 Hawaiian Crisis was a defining moment in the US presidential campaign of 1908. The arrival in Honolulu of the Russian battleship Rossiya seemed to be a slap in the face for American interests, an impression heightened by the fact that the new flagship of the Russian Pacific Fleet had been built with significant American technological help.

President Robert La Follette, running for a third term was faced with a rising tide of anger from within his own Reform Party, and suddenly what had looked like a competition between an incumbent with a sound economic record, and an unknown of the Radical Party with policies that were little different except at the edges, now became wide open. The Reform Party primaries began to return electors empowered to vote for candidates other than the president.

At the same time, dis-satisfied Radical Party activists began to toy with the Union Labour movement of Euegene Debs, whilst William J Bryan was running on an Independent Populist platform.

At the Reform Party convention in the Summer of 1908, there was a narrow victory for Henry Cabot Lodge, adopted by the foreign interventionist wing of the Reform Party as their candidate, regardless of his own feelings on the matters to hand. At the heart of this victory had been Lodge's comments on the position of US citizens in the United Provinces of Central America. A movement started by merchants and entrepreneurs, attracted to the UPCA since the opening of the Trans-Continental Canal in 1897, had begun clamouring for annexation to the USA. La Follette's administration had dismissed these calls, but big business had made its contributions to Lodge's campaign, and despite his own ambiguous feelings on the matter, Henry Cabot Lodge had made a series of key speeches in favour of annexation.

The November 1908 election was a confusion of chaos, with every candidate carrying some state or other. In the event, a tiny majority was the cause for Lodge's victory, and in March 1909 he was inaugurated as president of the United Stated of America.

Grey Wolf
 
Egypt by 1910

Egypt

From
http://www.uq.net.au/~zzhsoszy/states/islamic/egypt.html

HH Prince Muhammed Said Halim Pasha, born 18th January 1865 in Shubra, Cairo, Grand Vizier of the Ottoman Empire, married 1890, Emine Indji Toussoun, born 1st March 1876, (daughter of Muhammed Toussoun Pasha and Bachachat-Imr Hanim), died 31st May 1915 in Yenikeuy, Bosphorus, and had issue. He died 6th December 1921 in Rome.

Obviously, this is OTL.

From what I recall of the Islamic succession laws, had Ismail not changed it to a primogeniture system in the 1860s, Said Halim would have been ruler of Egypt after the death of Ismail.

In the ATL, this occurs in the 1895 on Ismail's death. He would thus accede as Sultan Said II of Egypt.

IIRC under the same Islamic succession laws, his successor would in fact be the guy installed by the British as khedive in 1914 after they overthrew the incumbent who came out in favour of the Ottoman Empire.

Was it Egypt like ? I can't help but think that it will from time-to-time be key, especially with the Suez Canal being so important. Including in its realm Lebanon (under French auspices), Palestine, Transjordania, the Hejaz with Mecca and Medina, Asir and Yemen, as well as Soudan, Eritrea and Equatoria, the geographical spread of Egypt is both dangerously vast and fascinating large.

I foresee that the Arab slaver states of the Eastern interior, established in concert with European adventurers such as Stanley and occupying what would in OTL become the Eastern Congo, would be important to Egypt's economy.

Abyssinia has diverged differently without the intervening rule of King John, going from a longer reign of Theodore to his OTL protege and here his annointed successor in Menelik.

I view Tripoli as still an Ottoman possession, and the Ottoman revival after the 1870s as seeing the reimposition of direct rule, and later the expansion into Fezzan and the potential for a clash with Egypt in the Arab emirates and sultanates of the interior.

Tunis, under the Bey, remains nominally Ottoman but in effect independent. I imagine there would be a certain amount of French influence, probably balanced by British and Austrian to assuage the fears that Tunis could become a French dependency.

Egypt also retains Crete, and the anchorage at Suva Bay which has been developed by the Egyptian Navy. This brings it within direct confrontation with the Mecklenburg Kingdom of Greece. But Greece since its disaster has never really recovered. It is poor, unstable and squeezed out of strategic considerations.

French influence within Egypt, from finance through loans, to military advisors, purchase of new military technology, and French bureaucracy and industry all lead France to have a dominant position within Egypt, even if the French government of the time has little direct interest in the sultanate.

I envisage the arsenal of Alexandria to at least be as good as that of Foochow before the Sino-French war, able to build small warships with no additional help. I would imagine that Egypt with its naval tradition, and its ability to draw upon France for technological assistance in upgrading its facilities, can actually build large cruisers and small battleships off its own back. It probably uses French, and maybe Austrian, yards for new designs - eg large battleship developments, or something akin to a destroyer when they first come out.

Grey Wolf
 
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