A Plethora of Princes (13) - The World Writ Large

Grey Wolf said:
That's one of my main confusions... Has the Voor Trek even happened ?
It happened in 1835.. and if I remember your TL correctly, the POD really takes affect in 1836, so the Boer states will certainly develop differently. I suppose the First Boer War is unlikely to happen, but the Uitlander Problem may still occur.

East Africa is a bit of another one too - there would be some commercial settlement still due to the Suez Canal, but with an independent Egypt and no Italy, very different. How does an independent Egypt interact with Abyssinia, is there no Mahdi, and what about the Somali states ? With no united Germany, and with Britain focused elsewhere, do the Arabs, the Sultan of Oman (Zanzibar) retain all of the coast ?

Grey Wolf
Sorry, I can't help you much there..
 
Another bit of curiosity- What happens in the islands that in OTL, were ruled by Germany and eventually became the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands? Is there a "King of the Marianas" floating around?
 
Imajin said:
Another bit of curiosity- What happens in the islands that in OTL, were ruled by Germany and eventually became the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands? Is there a "King of the Marianas" floating around?

Well, they're Spanish. IIRC Ponape has a king, though.

Thank you very much for all your comments

Do you have any thoughts yourself about Southern and Eastern Africa, I'm feeling very bogged down there. Madagascar I've had follow its historical route, the unification etc, and then the Westernisation. I've made Maori New Zealand very much in its image.

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Well, they're Spanish. IIRC Ponape has a king, though.

Thank you very much for all your comments
Hm.. makes sense. Is Nauru Spanish as well? I certainly see someone grabbing that for the phosphates (In OTL, it was the only German colony that made money..) Perhaps even a German state...

Do you have any thoughts yourself about Southern and Eastern Africa, I'm feeling very bogged down there. Madagascar I've had follow its historical route, the unification etc, and then the Westernisation. I've made Maori New Zealand very much in its image.
Hm... well, in East Africa, we may see Zanzibar and Oman split into two Sultanates as per OTL. The Zanzibari sultans claimed all of Tanganyika, and with European powers elsewhere, he may get it...
I think that, even with a lack of direct influence from the countries governments, we may see private companies moving in, and making deals with various leaders there to get resources and the like.
In South Africa, the South African Republic will most likely never be annexed by Britain, but there will still be Uitlander settlers, who will protest their lack of rights. Either we get a Boer War, or if Britain is distracted elsewhere (the upcoming War?) the Uitlanders could rebel.

EDIT: Another thought- Everyone seems to be focusing less on Africa in TTL.. Perhaps the Portuguese take advantage of this and expand their colonies in Mozambique and Angola?
 
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Imajin said:
EDIT: Another thought- Everyone seems to be focusing less on Africa in TTL.. Perhaps the Portuguese take advantage of this and expand their colonies in Mozambique and Angola?

The rose-coloured strip ? That is certainly a possibility. OTL Portugal claimed sovereignty more or less by ancient right across the space between the two colonies, OTL Bechuanaland and Rhodesia, as well as in Southern Congo

I certainly suspect Portugal has been busy doing something or other these decades under the Miguelistas.

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
The rose-coloured strip ? That is certainly a possibility. OTL Portugal claimed sovereignty more or less by ancient right across the space between the two colonies, OTL Bechuanaland and Rhodesia, as well as in Southern Congo

I certainly suspect Portugal has been busy doing something or other these decades under the Miguelistas.

Grey Wolf

hmmm, I always fluffy forget about Namibia ! I guess the strip would have been higher up, but then Portugal probably had claims in the whole area, though perhaps not Bechuanaland.

In fact, depending on what the Boers are up to they could have penetrated into Bechuanaland as they attempted to do historically. I guess it all depends on the Voortrek. I'm going to have to go and investigate that aspect in some detail, methinks

Grey Wolf
 
Hm, if the Voortrek ends up somewhere else, we may end up with a more likely to survive Boer Republic... After all, if the region doesn't have the resources (Witwatersrand) that the OTL Transvaal did, you have less British settlers, and thus the Uitlander Crisis that led to the annexation of the Republics never happens.
 
Of particular confusion here are :-

- the relationship between Abyssinia and Egypt
- European penetration of the Horn of Africa
- Arabs and the sultanates on the East coast
- the Voortrek, did it happen, and how ?
- the Boers, if the Voortrek did not happen, how are they in the Cape ?
- the Boers, if the Voortrek did happen, where are they, eg Bechuanaland too ?

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Of particular confusion here are :-

- the relationship between Abyssinia and Egypt
No idea.. Though Egypt may decide to "pull an Italy", so to speak, and try to annex Abyssinia, with most likely similar results to OTL.
- European penetration of the Horn of Africa
I don't know much here.. If youre having several European Wars, however, the neutral powers probably have a better chance of Expanding into here.. If Portugal is feeling Ambitious, it may decide that to invoke the Treaty of Tordesillas and do massive enlargemtns to it's African Empire.
- Arabs and the sultanates on the East coast
Well, how many sultanates were there by the 1800s? I know about Zanzibar, which may or may not split from Oman like OTL- Zanzibar had a claim on Tanganyika- I don't know how much it extended, however.
- the Voortrek, did it happen, and how ?
Unless the Boers can get Britain to allow slavery on the Cape, I think it happened. It may happen differently.
- the Boers, if the Voortrek did not happen, how are they in the Cape ?
Well, if they for some reason stay and slavery is still banned, they end up like the Cape Dutch did. If slavery is allowed, then they are seen as a backward bunch holding down the Empire, and slavery will most likely get abolished, so the Trek just happens later.
- the Boers, if the Voortrek did happen, where are they, eg Bechuanaland too ?
Well, the Voortrek most likely will be easily affected by Butterflies. I admit not to knowning too much, but they may indeed end up north of the Cape rather than east of it. If so, when Gold is discovered in the Vaal River Region, the British form a Colony there most likely, but there will be no Boers in the way.
 
Well, the Voortrek most likely will be easily affected by Butterflies. I admit not to knowning too much, but they may indeed end up north of the Cape rather than east of it. If so, when Gold is discovered in the Vaal River Region, the British form a Colony there most likely, but there will be no Boers in the way.

If the Vortrek occurs why would it not be to the same lands as OTL. they are better lands from an agricultural point of view than Bechuanaland. Are you proposing a stronger position for the Sothos then? An enlarged protectorate of Britain?
 
without British interference...the Boers will likely expand to Bechuanaland as well....though it is going to leave them awfully spread out....
 
As posted on another Board

I wonder if there is possibility of a sovereign Zulu kingdom in TTL?
 
majority of the french king

Considering the history of the french consitutions, I would think the majority of the french king to be at 25 but certainly not 16.

I don't have all data but, OTL, :
+ the consitution of 1807 established that the heir would not rule before 25 and a regent ( of at least 25 ) would be selected in this case.
+ The consitution of 1830 ( i.e. the original orleanist one ) fixed the age of vote at 25 minimum.
+ Constitution of 1848 : minimum 25 to be elected
+ Consitution of 1875 : minimum 25 to be elected to the lower chamber ( 40 for senate )

So 25 seems to be considered as the age of reason.
 
DuQuense said:
?I'm I right in there was no -Conference of Berlin- Drawing lines on a Map of Africa?

So? Who controls where in Africa.?

Also the late 1880's is OTL's France moves into Indochina. ?Will that happen here? If France doesn't take over, ?Does someone else move into Rubber production? [.

Actually, France moves in Indochina are earlier than this.

The first ( private ) involvment were in 1802, and there was already significant colonies ( as in several provinces taken over, mostly pacifically ) in the 1860s, even if Vietnam was still officially independent.
 
fhaessig said:
Actually, France moves in Indochina are earlier than this.

The first ( private ) involvment were in 1802, and there was already significant colonies ( as in several provinces taken over, mostly pacifically ) in the 1860s, even if Vietnam was still officially independent.

Napoleon III was very proud of his conquest of Cochin China, insribing it as one of his memorials in the Tuilleries. Somewhere I've got a photo showing this memorial in ruins after the Commune. The point though, made at the time, was that this campaign was not one of economic necessity but of political pride and adventurism.

In this ATL France fights the Eastern Mediterranean War in the 1850s, then the General European War in the 1860s. This is certainly enough to fulfill 'gloire'

In addition, as things develop France ends up with Kwangchow province, almost by default. As China falls apart, the two Southernmost provinces remain outside the Taiping state, but direct rule from Peking is obviously a nonsense. Britain and France move into them, initially at the Taiping's invitation (not having Imperial bastions to the South is a good move), and later as Imperial China revives, Peking grants 100 year leases to the two powers.

Throughout this, France continues as ally and mentor of Japan, and also into Vietnam. I see influence and trade, but not interference in their independent existence

Grey Wolf
 
13b Part 5 - Eastern and Southern Africa

Africa


The Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa has long been defined by the struggle between Egypt and its neighbours to the South. Our age is no different. King Theodore II (Tewodros II) of Abyssinia clashed several times with the expansionist Sultanate of Egypt during the late 1860s and early 1870s.

With the Klondike Crisis of 1875, and the apparent likelihood of war between Britain and France, as allies of the two main protagonists in North America, Britain began to worry about the potential for French strangling the route to India. Since the early 1860s the route had increasingly been through the Egyptian Suez Canal. Egypt, an ally of France, might be expected to act to interdict this passage, and if not willing initially to do so, France had enough influence through credit and commercial agreements to bring pressure to bear upon the sultanate.

The British response was that if France were to close the Suez Canal, then France herself would not be able to gain in any potential conflict. Even as the Radical uprising occurred in Paris and the danger of war receded, the British went ahead with their plans. Using existing trading bases in Aden, Britain acquired possession of several Somali ports, concluding agreement with native chiefs who were willing, or backing others to take power to be in a position to conclude such.

During the Anglo-American War of the mid 1880s some of these positions were abandoned, and in a twist of fate one or two were in turn occupied by France, securing agreements in turn with the native rulers. With the conclusion of the war, the British and French occupied ports were formalised in a bi-lateral agreement between the two nations.


Eastern Africa

The East coast of Africa is the territory of Arab sultanates. The Omani sultanate, wracked by internal problems has divided into two, the Southern portion securing its capital at Zanzibar. Owning a large swathe of the East African coast, sharing it with the Somali sultanates, this sultanate began pressing inland in earnest with the advent of European adventurers. Men like Stanley, proving to their paymasters that the interior offered profit, led to Arab penetration and settlement into the Eastern Congo, where the new states came into contact and thus conflict with the Cannibalistic peoples there. By 1890, the Arab sultanates, their interior governors and breakaway statelets, account for the majority of Eastern Africa, and form a continuum both along the coast, and within the interior from Tanganyika, the Congo and up to Equatoria.


Southern Africa

Portugal

The Empire of Portugal owns a wide strip of land from Angola in the West to Mozambique in the East. Until the 1870s the largest settlements were on the coasts, but starting with the British action in the Horn of Africa, and receiving a greater stimulus from Arab penetration into the interior, Portuguese expeditions to join their holdings with more than a theoretical line on a map occurred. During the period of the wars in Italy, and between Britain and the USA, Portugal steadily expanded its exploration and colonisation efforts. By 1890, the interior has established provincial capitals, and trade routes with both the Arab states to the North, and the Boers to the South

The Boers

The Boers, a Dutch-originated protestant people had been settled in the Cape of Good Hope when Britain took possession of the colony at the start of the century. By the time of the British Civil War, in the early-mid 1830s,, Britain had outlawed slavery and was moving towards emancipation of the last of the slave populations. This, combined with a reaction against radical Protestantism in the form of the Settlement of 1836, added impetus to a Boer movement to move out of the Cape Province and into the interior - the Voortrek.

By the 1890s half a dozen Boer states exist, spanning from Southern Bechuanaland, across the Orange River, the Transvaal, into Natal in the South and North into Bulawayo and Matebeleland. Conflict with the native states, with the Zulu Kingdom, and clashes with the Portuguese have made the Boer community a militarised one.


I realise this is still something of a hodgepodge but to be honest its been gnawing at me so much its beginning to depress me, so I felt it was better to get the vague outline of the big picture down on 'paper' than to try to tidy it up too much. I hope I have used the many good ideas and comments from people to produce something that is at least plausible. Thanks !

Grey Wolf
 
From my own board, some discussion on these issues

Thanks for your comments on Africa.

In a TL with a strong and independent Egypt, you are likely to see a large Egyptian African Empire. Prior to your POD Egypt already controlled most of today's Sudan, and the increased strain of your Egypt's military ventures are likely to provoke further expansion in an effort to increase revenues. Historically, Egypt's expansion petered out due to the stress of the enormous debt burden, but Egypt had already been asserting control over the Lacustrine kingdoms of Uganda and was pushing into today's Central African Republic and Chad.

I'm considering this likely myself. However, how would Egypt be able to enforce its ruler - through indirect rule, or attempts to impose direct rule ? I reckon that Soudan and Equatoria would be under direct control, at least that's what I'm working with.

I would think Britain would counter with support of Zanzibar, which controlled the coast from Mozambique to Mogadishu, and was spreading inland. In OTL, Bismarck was able to use the threat of siding with France over Egypt to wring concessions from Britain in Africa; this is clearly not the case in your TL, so British expansion in the region seems logically to be likely to be accomplished through a Zanzibari protectorate.

I don't see Britain as having the stretch to create a formal protectorate over Zanzibar here. Involvement, trade, agreements etc, yes and perhaps a most favoured nation kind of thing :) I see slavers and traders from Zanzibar as being the ones to open up the interior from the East. The Wargames Foundry has some very interesting articles on the Arabs in the Eastern Congo, on Stanley's role with them, and on how 'European' some of their settlements there impressed people as being. Without Belgium to destroy them, I see these as dominating the interior and joining borders with Egyptian Equatoria.


You might also consider what happens to Libya and Tunis - France would most likely sponsor Egyptian control over these - it encouraged this even in OTL - and the Ottomans are in no position to do anything about it.

I plan on having these remain as per OTL. To extend Egyptian control would take either another war, or an aspect of a war, either way not covered. Thus Tunis is practically independent, and Libya probably sufficiently autonomous that its practically independent in many ways too. Lol, remember that in a Plethora of PRINCES, the more rulers the better ;)


In the Horn of Africa, Ottoman sovereignty was claimed over the entire coast to Ras Tafun (now spelled Ras Xaafun, I believe), and actual control over Suakin, Massawa, and Zeila (all leased to Egypt, and probably just plain grabbed in your TL) had been constant since the 16th c, and the Egyptians had been spreading their control over the coast in the 2nd half of the 19th c - in your TL that process will not likely abate.

Yes, I expect Egypt has its bases and places. In a sense, these like Massawa will be considered so normal they probably won't be mentioned, hence, er, my forgetting to mention them ;)



2. Abyssinia can go however you want. Possible trends would be:

a. It's use as a bulwark against Egyptian expansion by Britain accomplished through provision of arms and advisors

b. It's conquest by Egypt later in the century, quite possible due to the spread of Islam and internal disunity.

c. Something like historical, where someone consolidates control in Abyssinia and Egypt turns to easier and more profitable expansion.


I've gone with point c, after clashes with Egypt. I read that Menelik II was a protege of Theodore to some degree, so without the British-induced suicide of Theodore, and the reign of John IV, the longer-lived Theodore could well die naturally and Menelik II emerge as a leader without the intervening civil wars

3. Eastern Arabia could go any number of ways. It really depends upon how well and how early Ottoman reform efforts progress. Historically the region was falling under total Wahhabist domination until Midhat was sent to the region to reestablish Ottoman contol, which initially extended all the way to Qatar, but excluded Bahrain, which wsa claimed but maintained independence due to British influence. The interior is fairly easily dominated by whomever controls the Hasa, where all the food is produced, and this was the case for the Ottomans as long as they had resources and attention to spare. I would view Britain as the only likely competitor in the region. Ottoman conquest of much of Persia will give them an enormous upper hand, as the British center of power historically was Bushire, and the removal of Shiite expansion in the region will eliminate a serious threat to Ottoman authority and attention.

Fighting the Wahabbi could well give the Ottomans 'something to do' in periods when they seem to have been forgotten about. From what I read about Kuwait they requested rather strongly to be a British protectorate. In this ATL, I'm not sure they're gonna have the choice.

After Ottoman conquest of Western Persia, I certainly see a good long period for them to consolidate and develop their influence.

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Maps - I will see what I can do, but am not sure how necessary it is.

For Italy, think of the independent states of around 1848, the states which with the exception of Lucca (swallowed by Tuscany as per OTL) have existed in their current form since 1815. This means Piedmont-Sardinia, the duchies of Parma and Modena, the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, the Papal States which include the Romagna, and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies which include Naples and Sicily. In the North, Lombardy-Venetia remain under Austrian rule. Its the Italy that endured half a century before the wars of OTL's late 1850s began the process of change.
I shall show Italy in Federation, as you have mentioned before without Venice and Lombard...got ya...
For Germany, likewise think of the independent states before the Austro-Prussian War of 1866. The only changes are that Schleswig and Holstein have now been annexed by Prussia. That's the ONLY territorial change. Regarding the German Confederation, all of Luxembourg went into the new Kingdom of Belgium in the 1830s, and in the 1860s the Prussian garrison was withdrawn from Luxembourg City.
See post #7 for referance on Prussia with Holstien and Swchleswig...
France, Spain, Portugal, no change fromj 1815, thus its the French borders before the 1860s, with Alsace-Lorraine of course, but also no Nice or Haute Savoy which remain part of Piedmont-Sardinia.
1815 France, Spain and Portugal...will find bas map for that.
Belgium - this is the full Belgium from before the separation and includes all of Limburg (i.e. the dangly bit of the Netherlands) and all of Luxembourg. I've posted a map of it in the past and will see if I can find one again.
I'll look to post #10 for Beligium map referance
For Serbia and Montenegro this is the post-1830s, pre-1870s Serbia, but for Montenegro they do have the tiny slice of Hercegovina that they took in the early 1870s.
1870s Montenegro
1830-1870s, Serbia O-tay
The Kingdom of Poland is Congress Poland, plus Galicia-Krakow from Austria. If you look at a map of 1815 it will show Congress Poland as a division inside Russia. Most maps of the Austrian Empire will show Galicia with its borders. Krakow will be shown on 1815 maps as independent, or on post-1846 maps as part of Galicia.
This;
galicia1836.gif


and this;

669px-1815_congresspoland.PNG


as Polish referances...

The Grand Duchy of Finland as added to Russia in 1815 can be considered to be sliced off and added to Sweden-Norway.
Consider it sliced.
The principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia are more complex, as you have to get the exact date right on a map to get the Black Sea coast correct. Basically the Black Sea coast is NOT the Dobruja which remains Ottoman, but three small areas of Bessarabia which were ceded by Moldavia in c1812, which were retroceded later, and then re-ceded after that. I know I've got a map around here somewhere which would explain that !
I'll attempt and find a Moldavia 1812 map somewhere...
The Kingdom of Ireland is all of the island of Ireland. Thus Great Britain is all of the rest of the British Isles.

The Kingdom of Greece is basically your mid-nineteenth century Greece, no Thessaly, but has Epirus added to it (a map should be able to show this, if not I'll see what I can find). The Republic of the Ionian Islands, as constituted in 1815, remains a British protectorate.
Pre-Balkan Wars Greece...with Epirus, no Macedonia
The Ottoman Empire is basically all of the rest of the European Balkans - this is from Bosnia-Hercegovina, Novi Pazar, Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Thessaly, Thrace, Bulgaria and the Dobruja. Added to that all of its OTL extent in Asia Minor, plus Syria, Mesopotamia and now some indeterminate slices of Persia, which would be in the Kurdish area and the South, and NOT Southern Azerbaijan which is Russian.
See Egypt...for the rest of it...
The Russian Empire - think of the Western extent in 1815, or 1914 for that matter. Cut off Finland (to Sweden), Congress Poland, and the small area of Southern Bessarabia (to Moldavia), but still hold all of White Russia, the Baltics, and the rest of Bessarabia. Russia includes all of the Caucasus, Southern Azerbaijan, the South shore of the Caspian Sea and Herat. In Part 12 it was completing the conquest of the rest of Persia, minus the sections occupied by the Ottoman Empire. In Central Asia, look at Khiva, Bokhara and Khokand at the start of the 1860s - these independent states remain, thus delineating Russia's border North of them. Russia however has all of Dzungaria, including Kuldja (basically the Northern half of OTL Sinkiang). In the East, if you look at the two provinces acquired from China in OTL, only the Northern one has been acquired, thus the Maritime Province where Vladivostock was built in OTL has remained Chinese. Russia has all of Alaska down to 54' 40" and has acquired the Yukon from Britain.
Need 1860s maps of central Asia...
Egypt too can be considered a European power in terms of its interactions. It is an independent sultanate, and includes Palestine, Transjordania, the Lebanon (under French protection), the Hejaz, the Soudan etc. It also includes Crete.
Big Egypt good for Frenchmen...:p
I hope that explains Europe quite well. I'll see if I can find those maps for you all.

Grey Wolf
I'll try...:)

The map will be placed in the Compliling thread, as well as someothers... The map will be of Europe in 1888....
 
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