A Plethora of Princes (13) - The World Writ Large

I'm saying someone as ambitious could come to the table no? Besides, nobelity is the thing that is least likey to be butterflied away....

A union with Saxony, or war between them and Prussia to be the dominate protestant Germany may just happen here. Remeber the closer you are to present time the more personallities matter in the eye of poltics. Maybe Hesse-Kassel does better? So many possiblites with German lands.
 
Elements

Elements to consider...

I consider the various tensions and not-quite-wars of the last decade or so to have so ratcheted up tensions that when a war does break out, it will spread to encompass all the other bubbling conflicts where the leaders involved are not able to rein the gathering wolves back in.

Denmark for example will have two factions
1- militarised, ready for anything, not going to be caught out again, but neutralist in stance
2 - revenge-focused, anti-Prussian in the extreme, revanchist for Schleswig and Holstein, but also quite anti-French and anti-Swedish but willing to deals with smaller Devils to get at the main one

So, can a basic timetable be worked out for what looks likely to become a general war ?

One thing to ask is what happens to the person of Willem IV ? Imprisoned in The Hague he is a hostage to fortune - Alexander may not kill his brother, but his supporters might. That would kill any civil war dead. Thus, an escape is both the best option for Willem personally, and for the timeline itself. An escape to where ? To Prussia ? To Belgium ? To Oldenburg ? The latter would have the advantage of removing him from harm and still allowing him relative freedom of action, but how safe would he be within the Grand Duchy of Oldenburg ? Hannover could be expected to be pro-Alexander in its Protestantism (still having an Ultra Tory influence in government), and close neighbour to Oldenburg Hannover, and soon Prussia could exert significant pressure on Oldenburg. It could be useful as a transitional base, but transitional to going where ? Britain is problematic, Belgium is also difficult for the timeline - how about Denmark ? That would add a certain picquancy !

Belgium mobilises over North Brabant and the coup d'etat, and backed by France issues some kind of ultimatum that Alexander's government rejects. Its basically a given that Belgium intends this

From here on ?

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Elements to consider...

I consider the various tensions and not-quite-wars of the last decade or so to have so ratcheted up tensions that when a war does break out, it will spread to encompass all the other bubbling conflicts where the leaders involved are not able to rein the gathering wolves back in.

Denmark for example will have two factions
1- militarised, ready for anything, not going to be caught out again, but neutralist in stance
2 - revenge-focused, anti-Prussian in the extreme, revanchist for Schleswig and Holstein, but also quite anti-French and anti-Swedish but willing to deals with smaller Devils to get at the main one

So, can a basic timetable be worked out for what looks likely to become a general war ?

One thing to ask is what happens to the person of Willem IV ? Imprisoned in The Hague he is a hostage to fortune - Alexander may not kill his brother, but his supporters might. That would kill any civil war dead. Thus, an escape is both the best option for Willem personally, and for the timeline itself. An escape to where ? To Prussia ? To Belgium ? To Oldenburg ? The latter would have the advantage of removing him from harm and still allowing him relative freedom of action, but how safe would he be within the Grand Duchy of Oldenburg ? Hannover could be expected to be pro-Alexander in its Protestantism (still having an Ultra Tory influence in government), and close neighbour to Oldenburg Hannover, and soon Prussia could exert significant pressure on Oldenburg. It could be useful as a transitional base, but transitional to going where ? Britain is problematic, Belgium is also difficult for the timeline - how about Denmark ? That would add a certain picquancy !
It should be noted that Oldenburg was a Prussian ally in the Austro-Prussian War, which was really the German Confederation vs. Prussia and allies, so Prussia will certainly have alot of influence over it.
Belgium mobilises over North Brabant and the coup d'etat, and backed by France issues some kind of ultimatum that Alexander's government rejects. Its basically a given that Belgium intends this

From here on ?

Grey Wolf
Well, I guess we're assuming it goes to war... Have Prussia make a strong stance behind the Netherlands, and then faction two come to promiennce in Denmark, supporting the Belgian ultimatum, Belgium and France have close ties in TTL, right? Maybe France stands behind Belgium rather than Denmark, which joins in a bit later.
 
From what little anyone seems to ever write about Oldenburg it comes across as a follower, never a leader. It could be that humane treatment of Willem raises the tempo, causes other nations to call for his imprisonment despite common decency and as Oldenburg reacts belatedly to Prussian demands he flees by ship to Denmark

Grey Wolf
 
?I'm I right in there was no -Conference of Berlin- Drawing lines on a Map of Africa?

So? Who controls where in Africa.?

Also the late 1880's is OTL's France moves into Indochina. ?Will that happen here? If France doesn't take over, ?Does someone else move into Rubber production? [Reason Japan invaded Indochina. ]

The 1880's OTL saw Germany Competing with the US over the Samoan Islands.

?Who is the big Winner in the South Pacific? As Europe is otherwise engaged.

?Don't you just love Questions, about Areas, you were trying not to worry About?.
 
DuQuense said:
?I'm I right in there was no -Conference of Berlin- Drawing lines on a Map of Africa?

So? Who controls where in Africa.?

Also the late 1880's is OTL's France moves into Indochina. ?Will that happen here? If France doesn't take over, ?Does someone else move into Rubber production? [Reason Japan invaded Indochina. ]

The 1880's OTL saw Germany Competing with the US over the Samoan Islands.

?Who is the big Winner in the South Pacific? As Europe is otherwise engaged.

?Don't you just love Questions, about Areas, you were trying not to worry About?.


Eer, OK yes !!!

The focus of both the European powers and the USA has increasingly in this TL been places you read about in the ATL

This means less focus on places that didn't get mentioned

I agree with your last point wholly, but I am in the middle of a detailed look in on the forgotten world

In a way, the Kingdom of the Netherlands sparking this war is a forgotten part of Europe anyway. Everyone got so used to positions, it forgot to remember the motivations behind them

As for the Pacific Islands, I don't think it too unlikely that they have all retained their independence in this ATL

Much more tomorrow

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Eer, OK yes !!!

The focus of both the European powers and the USA has increasingly in this TL been places you read about in the ATL

This means less focus on places that didn't get mentioned

I agree with your last point wholly, but I am in the middle of a detailed look in on the forgotten world

In a way, the Kingdom of the Netherlands sparking this war is a forgotten part of Europe anyway. Everyone got so used to positions, it forgot to remember the motivations behind them

As for the Pacific Islands, I don't think it too unlikely that they have all retained their independence in this ATL

Much more tomorrow

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Or Japan could do something about it. BTW, poutside of European powers whom is prevalant in the Pacific.
 
Othniel said:
Or Japan could do something about it. BTW, poutside of European powers whom is prevalant in the Pacific.

Japan under the Shogunate is probably still focused on its immediate area, rather than in any way particuarly expansionist. With both Imperial and Taiping China as neighbours, I'd imagine that tensions are always high in the Far East, and one flashpoint would be as per OTL the Kingdom of Korea.

Well, Chile is prominent in the Pacific as per OTL, and obviously the USA has a lot of strength there, but as stated in the discussion on warships, the US's focus is up-and-down rather than out.

As for the European powers, you have Britain, the Netherlands, France and Spain, plus of course Russia who is in Alaska for the long term, but does not possess Vladivostock or the province that that city was built on.

Thanks as always for your thought-provoking comments

Grey Wolf
 
The Rest of The World

Catching up on the rest of the world appears to be of vital importance to people, and therefore to what underlies the timeline. I'll thus pick up the war in thread 14 and round off thread 13 with a globe-trotting coverage.

Grey Wolf
 
13b Part 1 - Australia

Australia

The British Civil War of the early 1830s interupted the regular life of Australia. Although the war did not spill over onto the continent, even in its aftermath (unlike in India), the transportation of convicts first decreased then stopped altogether. The Radical-Reformist government, in power after the Settlement of 1836, then outlawed the practice completely. It could be argued that it no longer fitted the needs of the home country anyway. Initially conceived as a way of dealing with a burgeoning prison population, the effect of the civil war had been to decrease the population of Great Britain, both through the deaths from battle, disease and starvation, and through the exile to Hannover of the die-hard Ultras and their supporters. With population pressure lower back home, the need to export the prison population was removed. In addition, the Radical-Reformist government overturned many of the petty laws that had been in existence prior to the war, eradicating prison, let alone transportation, as the punishment for many minor offences.

Australia thus remained a land with four establishd colonies - South Australia, which was formalised in 1836 and had never been a convict settlement, Van Diemens Land, the island to the South, the Swan River Colony in the West and New South Wales which took up the rest of the continent, forming the majority of the Central, Eastern and Northern province.

The gold rush of the 1850s brought more settlers to what was still an underdeveloped colony. Movement for change led to the formation of the colony of Georgia, splitting off from New South Wales in the South.

The independence of Upper and Lower Canada at the start of the 1870s, also made Australia a more attractive place for setlement within the British Empire. Its climate compared to Rupertsland was a major advantage, and the British government encouraged development of the continent with grants for enterprise and industry.

During the Anglo-American War of the mid 1880s there was a lot of local concern about the possible descent of US troops on what was still a largely undefended colony. Depredations by some US Navy merchant raiders in the Southern Pacific also led to fears for the economy. Responding to these fears, Australia received the loan of two regiments of the Indian Army, and saw the beginnings of a naval force. Going along with this, and formalised in the Declaration of 1889, Australia was made a federal colony, the five Governor Generals reduced to one, though each colony retained its own government and administration in home affairs. By 1890 the Indian Army units had been withdrawn and replaced by natively-raised Australian Army regiments, staffed largely by British veterans of the recent war, but with the men recruited from all over Australia.

The Duke of York, hero of the naval warfare in the River Plate was made the first all-Australian Goverrnor General, and arrived at Sydney in 1890 with his wife and family. The cruiser which conveyed them from Britain, a veteran of the recent war, became the flagship of the nascent Australian fleet.

Grey Wolf
 
13b Part 2 - New Zealand

New Zealand

New Zealand's development came to a halt during and after the British Civil War. Whaling stations had been established around the islands, and settlements made usually in co-operation with the native Maori chiefs. When in 1834 a customs dispute over an unflagged ship from New Zealand brought the matter to a head, a flag for New Zealand was agreed between the British naval and whaling representatives and 25 Northern chiefs.

With transportation ceasing after the Settlement of 1836 the development of Australia slowed, and New Zealand continued as an adjunct to Australia, ruled by a Lieutenant Governor answerable to the Governor of New South Wales.

This state of affairs continued throughout the nineteenth century, with the whaling settlements developing into towns, and with settlement occurring on a limited basis. The United Tribes of New Zealand, having proclaimed their independence in 1835 despite continuing factional war, come to an agreement on a king, Potatau I in the mid 1850s.

Britain altered the status of New Zealand to that of a protectorate, establishing Maori home rule outside of the British settlements, and confining the latter to the territories already occupied. Separated from Australian oversight, New Zealand began to develop in its own image. Maori culture and architecture borrowed from Britain, and other European nations, but established a style of its own. Maori warriors, having been introduced to the musket in the time of George IV, became more Western in their dress and armament, adopting a uniquely Maori uniform, but somewhat in imitation of some of the Indian uniforms seen during the Anglo-American War.

By 1890, the protectorate has several modern towns, and is developing local practices into more formal agriculture and industry. Under King Potatau II (brith name Tawhiao) New Zealand has avoided the conflicts of modern times, and apart from visitations from the Indian garrison of Australia was little affected by the recent war.

Grey Wolf
 
What I have tried to do with New Zealand is to chart a development similar to that in Hawaii and Madagascar, both of whom could easily have ended the nineteenth century as united and independent states with an increasingly modern infrastructure

Grey Wolf
 
Is Japan following it's old time line routes? Or is some other type of restoration in the works? and are is the Quing Dynasty doing better or worse? What about India?
 
Othniel said:
Is Japan following it's old time line routes? Or is some other type of restoration in the works? and are is the Quing Dynasty doing better or worse? What about India?

What I've done with Japan is maintain the Bakufu (Shogunate). Its a little noticed fact of history that between Perry's visit and the Meiji Restoration of OTL lie a period of something like 14 years, and during this period the Tokugawa Shogunate was modernising, centralising and trying to deal with the new stresses and strains that opening up to the modern world brought. It had alliance with France, and it even acquired a modern steam warship - owned centrally by the Bakufu and not by one of the daimyos. The powers of the daimyo were being subordinated to that of the centre. Of course, in OTL rivalries within the Tokugawa clan and weakness at the centre combined with other forces to bring about the Meiji Restoration. In this ATL I have avoided this and had the Shogunate survive. But this is the reforming outward-looking shogunate, it is an ally of France etc.

Regarding China, by the 1860s in this ATL China was basically falling apart. To cut things briefly down to size, the Taiping had stabilised under a pragmatist and held a large part of Central Eastern China, in the South a couple of other successor states fought and gained unity and independence (eg in Yunnan) whilst the revolt of Chinese Muslims swept across the North-West. By the 1870s the dust had cleared. What we know as Sinkiang was then often referred to as Dzungaria (the North) and Kashgaria (the South). In this ATL, Russia has annexed Dzungaria, whilst Kashgaria has become independent - as in OTL under Yakub Beg, but longer-lasting here. The empire has revived but has lost a lot of territory - Tibet has secceeded, being left to its own defence against the likes of Nepal and the Sikhs, whilst the Southern provinces have been leased to France (Kwangchow) and Britain (the province where Canton is) since they are cut off from the main body of China. Formosa/Taiwan is Taiping.

Thus Imperial China is a far more Northerly entity, with the centre, with Peking and Shanghai (connected to Shantung by a strip of the landward province), with Manchuria, Mongolia and the Maritime Province (where Vladivostock is in OTL), and with Korea as its sole remaining tributary.

It has been asked before what about Indo-China, so I'll throw that into the mix here. The empire of Vietnam has cast off all Chinese overlordship - not hard considering it is no longer contiguous with Imperial China. Instead of French conquest of Cochin China etc, France has been during the century busy elsewhere (eg in the War of the Eastern Mediterranean in the 1850s, and the General European War of the 1860s, then a period of Radical rule and misrule in the later 1870s-early 1880s, then the Regency whose watchword is stability). I envisage that France is pursuing friendly policies both with Japan and Vietnam, with aid, development and military reform top of their list.

Britain in India has settled to a pattern. It has become surrounded by buffer states from Russian influence. These buffer states include a couple of battling Persian-successor states in the East of Persia, the Khan of Kalat in Baluchistan, the emir of Kabul in rump Afghanistan, the states of Khiva, Bokhara and Khokand in Central Asia, Kashgaria, Tibet, Nepal and in what we view as Northern India the Sikh states of Lahore and Punjab, which by the 1890s have probably divided from their previous unity.

Britain has not been very aggressive in India, mainly concerned with evolving the governance and centralising. The initial delaying factor was the civil stride in the wake of the Radical-Reformist victory in the British Civil War. Then, with Britain increasingly focused on the Americas, and alternating with insular Radical governments in London, India basically stopped expanding and focused on getting the gigantic heterogeony under control. Radical-Reform measures included the scrapping of the East India Company, the establishment of centralised institutions and an Indian Army that by 1890 is a modern force, well-armed and able to be deployed overseas, such as in Australia during the recent Anglo-American War.

Grey Wolf
 
And what of smaller islands? Polynesia, Mirco- and Macronesias, Indonesia's major Islands, and the Phllipeans? It's obvious without a Spainsh-American War that the US's conflict with Japan won't come into play. But as it looks the Pacific will start playing a major part by the 1950s at least. No boxer rebellion appears to be insight...but might suggest that the Dutch might just decide that they are unable to hold this out here for much longer? There has always been a bit of problems in this area.
 
13b Part 4 - The Pacific

The Pacific

It is probably easier to deal with all the knowns before one attempts to fill in the gaps !

Russia, without the Maritime Province (where Vladivostock is) nevertheless stretches across the Northern edge of the Pacific, over the Aleutian Islands and Alaska, down not as far as in OTL but with more land inland, and also having acquired the Yukon to the Mackenzie Mountains in the 1880s, from Britain.

The United States coastline is all Oregon, the entire Oregon Territory from the border with Northern California to 54'40" where it meets the Russians in Alaska. This coast has several naval bases, the main ones being on the island of Vancouver and the mouth of the Columbia River.

The Republic of Mexico stretches from California in the North, down to the border with the United Provinces of Central America. The reform of the government in California in the 1860s strengthened the central administration, and saw the expansion of naval facilities at San Francisco.

The Shogunate of Japan across the Pacific has modernised under French support, and has established suzerainty, although not sovereinty over the Principality of Okinawa.

Spain, with its main possession in the Philipines, the Marianas, Carolines and Guam has the oldest and largest holding in the Pacific itself.

France's holdings in the region are confined to Kwangchow province in Southern China, leased from the Imperial Government in Peking, but also encompass close relations with Japan and with Vietnam.

The Netherlands has holdings across the East Indies. These border the independent sultanates in the North (eg Johore, Sulu. Brunei) and tribal holdings in other areas, nominally claimed by the Dutch but not occupied.

Australia is a British colony, but New Zealand is a Maori kingdom, ruled independently, but as a British protectorate.

Returning to the Americas, the United Provinces of Central America, increasingly a US puppet, occupies the area from Mexico to Colombia in its Panama province. The UPCA includes the Pacific terminal of the the Trans-Oceanic Canal, which is now on course to be completed by the middle of the 1890s at the earliest.

The coast of South America includes the coastlines of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The coast of Chile was extended as a result of the War of the Pacific to include the Bolivian province, but hardline calls in Santiago for the annexation of Southern Peru came to nothing. South of Chile is the Pacific coast of the Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia, stretching down towards the South,but no longer including the island of Tierra del Fuego which was ceded to Chile in the settlement of territorial disputes in the later 1880s.

This thus leaves the central and Southern Pacific :) By and large the islands off the coast of South America belong to Chile (eg Easter Island) or to Ecuador (eg the Galapagos Islands).

The Kingdom of Hawaii has maintained a steady independence, playing various powers off each other, and wth diplomatic and mercantile populations from Russia, Japan, the USA, Mexico, Britain, France and Spain.

Samoa, like Hawaii, New Zealand and Madagascar, has seen the feuding chiefs eventually unite as a result of conquest on the one hand, and federation on the other. By 1890 a paramount chief has been elected king, and Samoa is moving towards conducting diplomacy with the merchants, whalers etc who come by as a single entity. The Anglo-American War proved to be a boon for Samoa, as meddling in its internal affairs died down, the powers having bigger fish to fry, but the importance of Apia as a harbour attracted fresh trade.

Historically Britain and France had claims, and even settlements on islands in the Western Pacific, as well as relations with the kings of Fiji and Tonga.

But the main batleground in the great Pacific naval war, during the Anglo-American War had been in the South Pacific, the British isolated communities on Pitcairn Island, and the various chiefs in Polynesia, including the emerging paramount chief in Tahiti. Both British and American warships, as well as merchants, raiders, and US privateers used the islands as bases, regardless of the legal standing of their operations. Several small skirmishes and clashes occurred between US and British vessels, one or two being decisive enough to eventually make it into the newspapers back home, once news from such isolated places finally reached them.

The Treaty of Montreal made no specific mention of Tahiti, but included a clause about the evacuation of temporary bases in non-sovereign territory. Whilst most politicians in London had Valparaiso in mind, and the railheads across the Andes, the treaty also applied to Polynesia, and saw the evacuation by both sides of the small forward bases established during the war. Britain and the USA, however, established more formal relations with the paramount chief, now calling himself king, and establiished permanent missions in his territories.

Grey Wolf
 
Hm.. if I remember my OTL correctly, there was a Kingdom of Sarawak ran by a British family (Brooke?) who had aided the Sultan of Brunei, and had worked to modernize the land and end cannibalism, and who ruled until the Japanese occupied the land. Does this still happen in this TL?
 
Imajin said:
Hm.. if I remember my OTL correctly, there was a Kingdom of Sarawak ran by a British family (Brooke?) who had aided the Sultan of Brunei, and had worked to modernize the land and end cannibalism, and who ruled until the Japanese occupied the land. Does this still happen in this TL?

I recall the white sultanate etc, though it was incorporated into the proper British form of colonies rather earlier than you say.

But I don't think in this timeline it exists. British presence in Malaya is even a lot less here, perhaps confined at most to the Straits Settlements.

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
I recall the white sultanate etc, though it was incorporated into the proper British form of colonies rather earlier than you say.
Well, I know the Brookes remained in power until WW2, though I suppose it was incorporated into the British structure...

But I don't think in this timeline it exists. British presence in Malaya is even a lot less here, perhaps confined at most to the Straits Settlements.

Grey Wolf
Makes sense.

As long as were looking at the rest of the world, what kind of things are happening in South Africa? The British Cape Colony is still there, and if I remember correctly, the First Boer War happens around this time in OTL. What happens here, with such a different Britain?
 
Imajin said:
As long as were looking at the rest of the world, what kind of things are happening in South Africa? The British Cape Colony is still there, and if I remember correctly, the First Boer War happens around this time in OTL. What happens here, with such a different Britain?

That's one of my main confusions... Has the Voor Trek even happened ?

East Africa is a bit of another one too - there would be some commercial settlement still due to the Suez Canal, but with an independent Egypt and no Italy, very different. How does an independent Egypt interact with Abyssinia, is there no Mahdi, and what about the Somali states ? With no united Germany, and with Britain focused elsewhere, do the Arabs, the Sultan of Oman (Zanzibar) retain all of the coast ?

Grey Wolf
 
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