A Plethora of Princes (13) - The World Writ Large

[Grey Wolf]

I wonder what the requisites for a dreadnought were? Could they be built earlier then OTL by Britain, becasue the threat to their fleet is earlier then OTL? Could the Americasn build them first?

Well, if we take the basics of :-
- speed
- all big gun
- more big gun
- armour

One could indeed build something. OTL ironclad/battleship development is intriguing in the 1870-1900 period. The difficulty I guess is getting increased speed WITH increased armament and armour at a time before turbines. Its a bit like trying to get full employment, economic growth and no inflation all at the same time.

I think you could certainly go to a three-turret (or three-barbette) battleship. There are instances of these (eg the German Brandenburgs) as well as examples of French battleships with four big guns - these latter are probably overlooked because it was at the period of SINGLE monster guns. This was soon superceded by double guns in a turret (or barbette) so the four separate ones kind of get overlooked, but could lead somewhere.

Alternatively, if the US Navy is more concerned about speed than super armament it could build super-fast battleships, perhaps with one main turret at the bow, and two smaller-calibre turrets at the rear. This makes a less powerful battleship, but you have to balance it out as per the equation above.

The third option, with traditional armament, slower speed and heavier armour is more coastal-bound and probably wouldn't meet the required needs of the New Navy

Thanks for your very interesting ideas
Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think you best bet for a Radical candidate would be , ironically enough, Benjamin Harrison, OTL winner of that year.

He also seems to to have been very supportive of heavy expansion of the Navy and its modernization. This would make since after a defeat inflicted at sea, numerous times. So the US navy is going to be built with the sole aim of a. blockading Rupertsland from Great Britain, b. enabling invasions of the British West Indies, and supporting any Allies throughout the Americas. So I think that a Naval Arms Race is a given, even if someone else besides Harrison is elected.

Interesting, I will have to look into him :-
http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h757.html

One thing to note is that one of his OTL assets is absent as his grandfather was NOT president in that period in the ATL, it was Van Buren's second term IIRC.

On the other hand, support for Radical Reconstruction and ACW pensioners rights would indeed place him well within the US Radical Party in this ATL's political spectrum and could make him ideal as a candidate.

Certainly something to think about - thanks !

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Alson J Streeter seemed an interesting possibility, but he seems to have been mainly farmers-orientated and based out West, and in this ATL he wouldn't for a start have a Texas base. I'm thinking the suggestion of Benjamin Harrison is an increasingly good one

Grey Wolf

 

[Hierophant]

Thanks, im happy I could help.


Now give me my damn cold war!

 

[Grey Wolf]

Thanks, im happy I could help.


Now give me my damn cold war!

Where would you like one ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

Have you concered making up a few people Grey? Maybe a Richard Clinton from Savannah could get elected in two generations. Surely you've messed up enough births by now.

 

[Hierophant]

The Anglo-American Cold War (1888-?) of course.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Have you concered making up a few people Grey? Maybe a Richard Clinton from Savannah could get elected in two generations. Surely you've messed up enough births by now.

Well, sure but its not as much fun !

Anyone can make people up, but looking at the might-have-beens of OTL people still has promise.

I once had it put to me, more eloquently than I can manage, along these lines. People say that a change will mean that Person A cannot be the same now as in OTL, the circumstances of his birth etc would change. But these same people will admit that the alternative to Person A could be of an almost infinite number of possible other birthdates and times. Each of these is actually as plausible or implausible as Person A's historical date of birth. There is nothing that makes the OTL date of birth less possible than any alternative, except the coincidence that it is the same as OTL - which has no bearing, because timelines do not compare details between themselves. So, if the possibilities of birth continue to exist then Person A can still exist, even if born 50-100 years after the POD. The alternative to Person A, lets call them Person X, could be anyone, born anytime, with a background of any type. Given that, there's no reason why Person A is actually any less likely to be the same as in OTL.

Grey Wolf

 

[Hierophant]

I dont think that your heading Prussia into any role where they could try, want or need to achieve parity with Great Britain. Britain seems to have close relations with France at the moment, or at least fears getting on their bad side.

So the US is really the only possible challenge to the UK, that is likely anyway. I dont see the British pissing the French off, much, and youve just laid the groundwork for a long animosity towards the Brits by America.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Anglo-American Cold War (1888-?) of course.

Aha, a good point

I'm still feeling my way post-1888 but there is going to be some complicated inter-play. With the Radicals back in power in Washington DC, and with the Reform-Moderate coalition continuing to rule in London, the British Radicals alarmed at the increasing monarchism of the British ruling establishment may well look towards their US counterparts for support.

Grey Wolf
back soon after a shave

 

[Hierophant]

I think that technological progress in your Tl will be retarded to some extent, due in part to Germany's lack of one nationhood.

I worded that funny.

Its just an idea, I just have a feeling that since direct confrontation between world powers seem to be a minumum, with most of the wars fought in distant parts of the world, sometimes through use of sattelite states, the urge and need to advance is reduced.

I could be wrong. Its just a feeling though.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think that technological progress in your Tl will be retarded to some extent, due in part to Germany's lack of one nationhood.

I worded that funny.

Its just an idea, I just have a feeling that since direct confrontation between world powers seem to be a minumum, with most of the wars fought in distant parts of the world, sometimes through use of sattelite states, the urge and need to advance is reduced.

I could be wrong. Its just a feeling though.

You could be right and wrong at the same time

I think the dynamism for a lot of the later industrial revolution was still trade related, and most of that sort of thing is still going to happen. Where it may well slow down is the next stage, with the likes of the internal combustion engine, aeroplanes, productions lines etc. I'd expect to see some delay there.

However, I think it quite possible that industrialisation becomes more widespread that OTL. Instead of going deeper, it goes wider kind of

Thus, the part in the text about Cuba. Part of this will be due to Anglo-US tensions - the USA just does not look like a good investment for British banks or companies as, come a war, the USA will probably (and probably already did) take them over.

Added to this, greater British involvement in Paraguay, Uruguay etc may well see industrialisation come to more of South America. I doubt it will impinge too much on Araucania and Patagonia, except in the Eastern towns/ports which have become entry points for the immigrants that the Mapuche let in (e.g. a lot of Welsh farmers !).

In Canada, Rupertsland, being the remaining British possession is going to get something of a boost. Where Churchill is OTL is the capital wil be a bigger city, and with the frontier moved for the US to swallow up Winnipeg, there will be fortifications and railheads to support these on both sides. Hence developed towns and cities will become the norm in certain clusters.

I've got to work out Africa. Apart from Egypt, and even then I don't know its exact extent, I am roughly sure of Morocco, Algiers, Tunis, Libya, Abyssinia, and Senegal but not really anywhere else ! Has the Voortrek even happened, or have the Boers remained in the Cape and perhaps won virtual independence there ?

I'm still working on Australia too...

Grey Wolf

 

[Hierophant]

So a world in the present day with 50's technology, but a much more equal spread of technology and infrastructure?

It sounded good until I realized this would mean HIV/AIDS would leave its pocket of Africa sooner, and have a long time to spread and kill before it was even isolated and diagnosed.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 3 - Crisis in The Netherlands

1890 saw a radical change in one of Europe's forgotten countries. Since the 1830s war with France and the Belgian National Congress, the Kingdom of the Netherlands had become a more militarised, and somewhat insular country. The long reign of King Willem III had seen a continuation of the militarisation, the keeping up-to-date in naval developments, despite the drain on resources, and support for a radical Calvinism which denied the Catholic population of North Brabant Catholic bishops. The constitution of the Netherlands remained a centralised monarchical one, and the king's writ was law in politics. Personally, King Willem III had been a boor of a man. Rumours that he beat his wife leaked out even into the press of countries such as France or Prussia where such discussion about fellow monarchs was looked down upon, not least by the official censor. Relations between the king and his eldest son, Crown Prince Willem were strained at the best of times, and took the form of a bubbling conflict at the others. King Willem had denied his son his choice of bride and as a consequence the younger Willem had remained unmarried. As a reaction to his father's radical Calvinism he adopted a liberal aire, and was often left out of state occasions as a punishment by his father. King Willem III's younger son, Prince Alexander, had been raised in position by his father, encouraged during the late 1880s to marry, and had chosen Emma of Waldeck and Pyrmont as his bride. With one daughter, born in 1889, and another child on the way, the long-term succession of the dynasty appeared to lie in the hands of Prince Alexander.

The death of King Willem III in 1890 thus created a fission in the Netherlands body politic. The accession of a liberal-minded king in King Willem IV was seen as a challenge by the radical Calvinist establishment, and as the new king embarked on his reign in a spirit of reform, those whose interests were threatened increasingly looked towards Prince Alexander for leadership. The birth of a son, named Willem for his grandfather, in the mid-months of 1890, seemed to add to Prince Alexander's credentials and he was openly spoken of as a replacement for Willem IV, should his brother wish to abdicate.

The Catholic population of North Brabant had increasingly looked towards Belgium since the ban on local Catholic bishops had occurred in 1849. King Willem IV saw this as a dangerous weakness in his kingdom and began making overtures towards the Catholic leadership in a bid to assuage their grievances and bring them more into the Netherlands body politic.

The establishment, both the Calvinist religious establishment and the conservative political establishment, saw the king's actions as both dangerous and treasonous. In September 1890 they acted, enacting a coup d'etat and seizing the person of the king. Even as Prince Alexander demanded to know what was going on, his supporters declared his brother deposed and himself as king. Despite his own misgivings, Prince Alexander allowed himself to go along with this, and was sworn in as King Alexander I of the Netherlands in a partisan ceremony.

Northern Brabant rose in revolt, and in Brussels, the elderly King Louis I held urgent discussions with his cabinet on the crisis across the border.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 3+ - - - Important Ponderings

Ponderings

Frederick III may not be the liberal he was renowned to be, either because in this ATL he has not developed quite that way, or because his qualities were often seen in OTL in contrast to his son. Nevertheless, even in the ATL he is married to a British princess (daughter of George V) and is generally liberal-ISH, at least for a Prussian. Thus, he can be expected to support personally Willem IV rather than the usurper Alexander I. However, does this advance Prussia's goals at all ? Perhaps simply by intervention for whomever, Prussia's goals would be advanced ?

Belgium looks likely to flex its muscles, which in this ATL are somewhat stronger than in OTL. Intervention in the name of Willem IV, and in aid of the N Brabant Catholics, would have France very much present in the background. King Charles XI is about to come of age, if we assume 16 to be the age where he can take over for himself (it often was elsewhere). The Duke of Chartres continues to wants to keep France out of wars, but if a war has been started next door he could well let his principles lapse this time.

The question therefore becomes how can King Alexander I work his own way through all this - apart from the conservatives and radical Calvinists at home, how can he gain international recognition, aid and even allies ?

One really can't see a Reform-Moderate government in London going so far as to risk war with France, or even with Belgium, in favour of a guy whose policies are pretty obnoxious. They might do some deal around the edges, perhaps for the Netherlands Antilles as a price, but its likely to come to nothing unless Alexander can stabilise his position.

What might prod some more action is if Prussia, in aiding Willem IV, invades or occupies other German states as a temporary measure, or simply due to passing through and not departing. Without the Diet at Frankfurt, the likes of the Saxon Duchies cannot really defend themselves, and are unlikely all to have meaningful alliances in place. Could this stir in some way an Austro-Prussian war ? If so, it would probably drag in France and probably not on Prussia's side despite the alliance of the mid 1860s. Belgium would eye Prussian Luxembourg as well.

Maybe it would be idea for the timeline if Frederick III croaks, after an extra two years of life ? Then his heir, whose name I've forgotten but is a more stable and not deformed analogue to Wilhelm II, could see himself as presented with a mission. If he opts to support Alexander I despite his policies, then the scene could be set for a European war ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

Or if it goes the other way, the Netherlands may feel European Brutality.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Or if it goes the other way, the Netherlands may feel European Brutality.

Actually this is where the historical Wilhelm II would really have come in useful, especially as there is no Bismarck around. Maybe I can make Frederick III's successor less of a hothead but equally an ambitious scheming young man, perhaps jealous at how his contemporary in Vienna has been forgiven and is now much admired for his beautiful young wife.

A deal with Alexander I over Dutch colonies ? Then a war for German supremacy ? It might even be possible to wrap it all up as defence against France...

But Saxony, Bavaria, Wurttemberg are not going to buy that, though they will make very careful calculations and some of their interests are mutually incompatible.

Grey Wolf

 

[Faeelin]

Added to this, greater British involvement in Paraguay, Uruguay etc may well see industrialisation come to more of South America. I doubt it will impinge too much on Araucania and Patagonia, except in the Eastern towns/ports which have become entry points for the immigrants that the Mapuche let in (e.g. a lot of Welsh farmers !).

I dunno; southern Latin America was pretty well developed OTL; it wasn't industrialized, but industrialization =/ wealth, as the case of New Zealand shows us.

 

[Othniel]

You need a man like Bismarck. Not well liked, but loved by the king. Someone to whishper in his ear. Someone that will warp a conversation with the Austrians. Balvaria and Austria, against Prussia, Saxony and the Netherlands, may be workable.

 

[Grey Wolf]

You need a man like Bismarck. Not well liked, but loved by the king. Someone to whishper in his ear. Someone that will warp a conversation with the Austrians. Balvaria and Austria, against Prussia, Saxony and the Netherlands, may be workable.

Well, er Bismarck got eaten by butterflies, not least because without his 1848 experience he didn't get to where he got, or somesuch

I suppose one could wonder what's been going on in Switzerland as well

There are of course wildcards to any war in Europe
- Poland, close to Austria, sitting on Prussia's Eastern flank and probably by now eyeing Posen with a bit of hunger
- Russia, which won't let opportunities go begging if it sees any in its interests
- Piedmont-Sardinia where Umbert I still smarts at his defeat a decade ago
- Ireland, Catholic, dynastically and religiously associated with France and sitting on Great Britain's Western flank
- Denmark, still smarting after the mid 1860s devastation
- Norway, part of Sweden's crown, but what are the separatist feelings there

A general war suddenly seems on the cards, somewhat to everyone's surprise !

Grey Wolf