A Plethora of Princes (12) - The Sighing of The Wind

[Grey Wolf]

Some points/comments

Regarding the internal Uruguayan revolt, this Uruguay has been a stable place under Anglo-French protection, but I can imagine there is a certain pride that they take in being a republic not a colony. Thus when Britain starts acting as if Uruguayan opinion is not important, a certain part of the populace takes umbrage.

Regarding unilateral action I tried to show it was the Duke of York's personal responsibility, getting the general on board, but he is going to take the blame or garner the praise back in London.

I fucked up about the Canadian maritime provinces and have tried to make up for it. Initially I assumed Upper and Lower Canada were all that Canada was, apart from Rupertsland. So, I fudged Britain ceding them sometime in the past and the arrangement in the early 1870s was to make an independent federal republic. I apologise that I have had to fudge this. If I had noticed earlier, like er in the 1840s I might have been able to do something about it !

True, supply via Hudson Bay is going to be painful, but at the same time its going to be a bit hard to interdict unless the US sends a fleet to spend its whole time in the Arctic. But I have said that the 1875-6 Klondike Crisis brought about a major rearming of Rupertsland, intended to be against Russia, but with a bit of re-orientating as useful as against the USA.

Rupertsland can basically afford to lose, well, everything, if it takes time and if it costs the USA blood and men to do so. I assume the heartland of the colony is on the Hudson Bay, maybe where Churchill is OTL ? I would say that given the Yukon cession to Russia, the British can afford to lose all of Rupertsland if they win in the end, whereby they would get it back at the peace.

Well, what counts in naval warfare is the number of ironclads, a species developed since the mid 1860s in Britain and the end of the 1860s in the USA. The British Radical government was not particuarly inclined towards armament spending but the Klondike Crisis gave it a boost. Its US counterparts are les troubled by principle, keep the navy that won them the US Civil War and keep it modern. By the late 1870s with changes in both countries, the race is renewed on more or less equal terms. Because it started earlier, Britain has more older ironclads, and perhaps some more older cruisers, but in terms of the forces that can be deployed these are roughly equal, as the war is going to be taken to the USA, and not to Britain, but Britain mist maintain a force at home, not least to protect the grain convoys from the Black Sea.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

How suppressed are the local tensions within the United Provinces of Central America? Could a war set off a full-blown civil war within the territory, with some of the Provinces attempting to regain independence?

I am thinking the answer would be yes

However, I am thinking that the USA has a good number of forces in Nicaragua where the Trans-Oceanic Canal is being built, as well as in Costa Rica both the most difficult of the provinces as well as the frontier one.

But if things start to go badly for the USA, the UPCA could well see secessionist movements break out again

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think if some of these smaller coutries and Spain got involved (for some reason I can imagine them and only them declaring war on Russia...their far enough away that if the US paid them to embargo Russian trade... Now that would be a twist....

I doubt its in the realm of realistic possibility. Spain isn't about to do the USA's dirty work for them. Apart from historical rivalry/hatred, Spain has far more to lose longterm by pissing off its near neighbour Great Britain

Grey Wolf

 

[Nicole]

I am thinking the answer would be yes

However, I am thinking that the USA has a good number of forces in Nicaragua where the Trans-Oceanic Canal is being built, as well as in Costa Rica both the most difficult of the provinces as well as the frontier one.

You say the War in Rupert's Land is causing alot of manpower loss for the United States- Will the US be forced to lower its troop contingent in the UPCA to keep up with the war? The Trans-Oceanic Canal is certainly too important to risk, but there may be an idea in Congress that "Costa Rica is not worth a loss to Britain", and that if any of the United Provinces leave, after the war ends they can just reconquer it.

But if things start to go badly for the USA, the UPCA could well see secessionist movements break out again

Is the UPCA still being run by whats basically a sucession of Americans like William Walker, or is there some attempt to bring Central Americans into the government?

 

[Grey Wolf]

Is the UPCA still being run by whats basically a sucession of Americans like William Walker, or is there some attempt to bring Central Americans into the government?

Its basically being run as a US territory that happens to have a president and assembly.

The USA has established settlements for freed Eastern state slaves, probably mainly in Honduras, Nicaragua and maybe El Salvador

I would think that the policy in Washington is aimed at eventual annexation but from time to time they pretend not

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 9

1887, saw a Russian invasion of Persia. Whilst of no great surprise to Great Britain, and bringing hardly any response from London, the action caused a storm of political fury across Europe, and the European involved nations.

The Ottoman Empire, growing in strength and with concerns of their own in Persia, was the most concerned, but Sultan Abdul Aziz was in an awkward position, unwilling to cause great disruption to their Russian neighbour and rival. After frantic discussions, the Ottoman Empire invades Persia from the West as a somewhat-unwanted ally of the Russian Empire.

In South America, Britain has secured the province of Corrientes for Paraguay, and thus their lifeline with Uruguay, but fierce fighting with US and Argentine units continues throughout Chaco province and in the Northern borderlands.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Hmmm, well I suppose Russia can't launch THAT much of a surprise attack on Persia but if nobody is paying attention and given that Russia in this ATL has South Azerbaijan and the Southern shore of the Caspian as well as Herat, it would be easier to mass troops without looking too completely obvious

Note too that Baluchistan under its (?federal) khan is still independent in this ATL, and not a British possession, so Britain retains a buffer between its territory and that of Russia any way you look at it here.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Comments in the Night ?

(sung to the tune of Strangers In The Night)

Grey Wolf

 

[The Gunslinger]

What are Texas and Mexico up to right now? One of them getting involved somehow could prove interesting.

 

[Hierophant]

Regarding the internal Uruguayan revolt, this Uruguay has been a stable place under Anglo-French protection, but I can imagine there is a certain pride that they take in being a republic not a colony. Thus when Britain starts acting as if Uruguayan opinion is not important, a certain part of the populace takes umbrage.

Regarding unilateral action I tried to show it was the Duke of York's personal responsibility, getting the general on board, but he is going to take the blame or garner the praise back in London.

I fucked up about the Canadian maritime provinces and have tried to make up for it. Initially I assumed Upper and Lower Canada were all that Canada was, apart from Rupertsland. So, I fudged Britain ceding them sometime in the past and the arrangement in the early 1870s was to make an independent federal republic. I apologise that I have had to fudge this. If I had noticed earlier, like er in the 1840s I might have been able to do something about it !

True, supply via Hudson Bay is going to be painful, but at the same time its going to be a bit hard to interdict unless the US sends a fleet to spend its whole time in the Arctic. But I have said that the 1875-6 Klondike Crisis brought about a major rearming of Rupertsland, intended to be against Russia, but with a bit of re-orientating as useful as against the USA.

Rupertsland can basically afford to lose, well, everything, if it takes time and if it costs the USA blood and men to do so. I assume the heartland of the colony is on the Hudson Bay, maybe where Churchill is OTL ? I would say that given the Yukon cession to Russia, the British can afford to lose all of Rupertsland if they win in the end, whereby they would get it back at the peace.

Well, what counts in naval warfare is the number of ironclads, a species developed since the mid 1860s in Britain and the end of the 1860s in the USA. The British Radical government was not particuarly inclined towards armament spending but the Klondike Crisis gave it a boost. Its US counterparts are les troubled by principle, keep the navy that won them the US Civil War and keep it modern. By the late 1870s with changes in both countries, the race is renewed on more or less equal terms. Because it started earlier, Britain has more older ironclads, and perhaps some more older cruisers, but in terms of the forces that can be deployed these are roughly equal, as the war is going to be taken to the USA, and not to Britain, but Britain mist maintain a force at home, not least to protect the grain convoys from the Black Sea.

Grey Wolf

But can the British really force the Americans to the table? I think any war this late in the 1800s would end as a stalemate, with the British victor in South America, drawing the lines where they please, while the US unilaterally annexes anything british they get their hands on, definately Rupertsland. So the war ends like Korea, with a ceasefire that never ends. This could lead to a true Cold War. If its anything like our own, it would promote technological development.

 

[Hierophant]

1887, saw a Russian invasion of Persia. Whilst of no great surprise to Great Britain, and bringing hardly any response from London, the action caused a storm of political fury across Europe, and the European involved nations.

The Ottoman Empire, growing in strength and with concerns of their own in Persia, was the most concerned, but Sultan Abdul Aziz was in an awkward position, unwilling to cause great disruption to their Russian neighbour and rival. After frantic discussions, the Ottoman Empire invades Persia from the West as a somewhat-unwanted ally of the Russian Empire.

In South America, Britain has secured the province of Corrientes for Paraguay, and thus their lifeline with Uruguay, but fierce fighting with US and Argentine units continues throughout Chaco province and in the Northern borderlands.

Grey Wolf

I think the main Ottoman aim would be parts of Iranian Azerbaijan, Iranian Kurdistan, and in the Arab pocket in the south (dont rtemeber the name).

 

[Grey Wolf]

What are Texas and Mexico up to right now? One of them getting involved somehow could prove interesting.

I'm thinking that these two, like Spain, is sitting there watching. I don't see them acting, at least at this stage. I guess you have to consider what anyone can gain by intervening ?

Mexico for example still has California, has suzerainty over Deseret etc, so there's no revanchist agenda, unless the Republic of the Yucatan is considered. Whilst the Yucatan used to be a US protectorate it shook this off during the 1869-71 US Civil War, and is now properly considered to be completely independent. Thus, if Mexico DID have ambitions there it would not be tied directly to a war, unless it feels that the distraction to the US and Britain would offer it an opportunity to sneak in beneath them.

Regarding Texas, they supported the South in the US Civil War and have a large number of Confederate refugees settled there. However, again I'm not sure what Texas can gain by entering the war. In fact, Galveston is probably gaining a lot of trade and carriage from it - Texan merchant marine taking over trade from US flagged ships etc.

Spain is traditionally an enemy of the USA, and Sherman's actions to drive Spain from the Chincha Islands was the cause of much loss of Spanish face, problems in Madrid and the abdication of the old king. King Carlos VII is not likely to rush into anything, but should Britain gain the upper hand, Spain may weigh in with some support. Spain also has a significant Confederate refugee population, both on Cuba and back home, and they can be imagined to be following the events with interest.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I think the main Ottoman aim would be parts of Iranian Azerbaijan, Iranian Kurdistan, and in the Arab pocket in the south (dont rtemeber the name).

Well, Southern Azerbaijan has been Russian since the 1840s in this timeline, but I was thinking you are correct about the rest. Qom is pretty near the border I think ? I'll need to look it up, but possession of another Muslim holy city, keeping it out of Infidel hands etc, could be seen as a good thing. And indeed a buffer zone between future Russian territory and long-time Ottoman territory would be rather welcome

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

But can the British really force the Americans to the table? I think any war this late in the 1800s would end as a stalemate, with the British victor in South America, drawing the lines where they please, while the US unilaterally annexes anything british they get their hands on, definately Rupertsland. So the war ends like Korea, with a ceasefire that never ends. This could lead to a true Cold War. If its anything like our own, it would promote technological development.

It is certainly a good point.

However, it doesn't take into account what would happen within the USA if Britain can be seen to be clearly winning. There may well be a backlash against the government, and a new leadership (however it comes about) might wish to end the war as quickly as possible, thus no years-long wrangling over Rupertsland. Perhaps the US will refuse to abandon some borderland territories, claiming them to be in disputed land etc. This could be especially the case if Royal Navy ships are seriously interfering with US trade, or even attacking the coast.

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

Could California and Deseret attempt to pull away from Mexico? Or even pull a coup de grace on the Mexican Goverment and then move the capital elsewhere? How have you been keeping them content thus far? These outer regions will attempt to pull away or the goverment will be recentralized to even the governing out. Other powers may try something while the US is occupied. Maybe Britian can encourage Japan to attempt and by California from Mexico while the US is occupied? The US will be either spread thin, or will just let this blantant infrigement on the beloved Monroe doctrine pass....

 

[The Gunslinger]

The Bahamas are spitting distance from Cuba, perhaps some minor naval engagment, and some Spainish sailors who are nearby die or get their ship sunk something. The either Spain gets closer with Britain, or perhaps a declaraton of war...

 

[Hierophant]

It is certainly a good point.

However, it doesn't take into account what would happen within the USA if Britain can be seen to be clearly winning. There may well be a backlash against the government, and a new leadership (however it comes about) might wish to end the war as quickly as possible, thus no years-long wrangling over Rupertsland. Perhaps the US will refuse to abandon some borderland territories, claiming them to be in disputed land etc. This could be especially the case if Royal Navy ships are seriously interfering with US trade, or even attacking the coast.

Grey Wolf

Well some people believe that McClellan would have given the Rebs most of what they wanted if hed been elected in 1864. I dont agree for my own reasons and for the fact that Mac was dead set on defeating the South.

Why did i bring this up. Simple. With the exception of Vietnam, the US doesnt back down from a fight after losing significant amount of men. Vietnam was the exception because of the guilt in supporting first french colonialism and later backing the small south vietnamese elites.

I think that if Great Britain wanted peace, and the US was open to it, the US would demand all of of Rupertsland, or at least all they occupy, which would maybe leave the British some islands in the Artic which wont be worth anything until the presnet day, if then (resources and such).

If Britain cant bring America to its knees, they have no chance at all of dictating peace terms, even with a transition governement. If they caved in they would lose in the next election. They basically gave the blood of young american men for nothing.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Could California and Deseret attempt to pull away from Mexico? Or even pull a coup de grace on the Mexican Goverment and then move the capital elsewhere? How have you been keeping them content thus far? These outer regions will attempt to pull away or the goverment will be recentralized to even the governing out. Other powers may try something while the US is occupied. Maybe Britian can encourage Japan to attempt and by California from Mexico while the US is occupied? The US will be either spread thin, or will just let this blantant infrigement on the beloved Monroe doctrine pass....

Well, California was brought the more fully back under Mexican auspices during the 1860s, and with the Gold Rush petering out I would think that secessionist forces have since reduced even from them.

Regarding Deseret, if you consider the position of the Mormons then having Mexico as suzerain power is a better option than being completely independent. It means that the USA cannot decide to conquer them without going to war with the whole of Mexico. In addition, Mormons provide men for some of Mexico's best regiments by the timeframe.

The Shogunate is mainly under French influence, and certainly not capable of trans-oceanic enterprises. You are correct though in that I need to bring it back into consideration once more, though, as the reforms of the Bakufu need to be considered, and would have done much to modernise Japan, albeit in a very different way than happened in OTL.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Bahamas are spitting distance from Cuba, perhaps some minor naval engagment, and some Spainish sailors who are nearby die or get their ship sunk something. The either Spain gets closer with Britain, or perhaps a declaraton of war...

The Bahamas will be appearing in an episode near you soon

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well some people believe that McClellan would have given the Rebs most of what they wanted if hed been elected in 1864. I dont agree for my own reasons and for the fact that Mac was dead set on defeating the South.

Why did i bring this up. Simple. With the exception of Vietnam, the US doesnt back down from a fight after losing significant amount of men. Vietnam was the exception because of the guilt in supporting first french colonialism and later backing the small south vietnamese elites.

I think that if Great Britain wanted peace, and the US was open to it, the US would demand all of of Rupertsland, or at least all they occupy, which would maybe leave the British some islands in the Artic which wont be worth anything until the presnet day, if then (resources and such).

If Britain cant bring America to its knees, they have no chance at all of dictating peace terms, even with a transition governement. If they caved in they would lose in the next election. They basically gave the blood of young american men for nothing.

Hmmm, I don't tend to buy the argument that every other power would perhaps do something but the USA never would. Your argument seems too focused on looking back from now, rather than perhaps looking back from the 1880s.

I see a couple of useful comparisons here. One would be 1812 where both sides did damage to and invaded each other's territory but the peace was made on the basis of the status quo ante-bellum. The other would be Russia in the Crimean War. Russia was not used to losing either, its modern history had been of victory. But in the end Russia had to accept terms. The reason ? An ultimatum by an additional power that threatened to extend the war and break them, plus the likelihod of a new front in the North on land.

In many ways land is not so much territory to be conquered, but battlegrounds to be entered in pursuit of the enemy. Thus, often it occurs that during the war one power will enter deep into another's territory but in the peace will not demand to keep the land which they have occupied.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf