A Plethora of Princes (12) - The Sighing of The Wind
- Thread starter Grey Wolf
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OK, so HTML doesn't work and if you use either indent or center properly VBCode sticks the next word on the next line, but if you don't close the tag it puts it all together and doesn't action the code. So, with no tabing working either, how the hell DO you format this sort of thing properly ???
Grey Wolf
Grey Wolf
Food and Russia
Looking at the issue of food, I started this thread
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=13310
and its got some very interesting discussion
Regarding Russia, I am thinking that Britain basically has to agree to pay whatever Russia charges, probably has to buy out other countries' merchants and governments, and has to give other concessions in return. One obvious one in this ATL would be the cession of the entire Yukon Territory, which would have the advantage that if the Americans were to storm across Rupertsland they at least wouldn't get that. In Central Asia, Britain may have to come to some agreement on Afghanistan, or quite probably Persia where in this ATL Russia already has Southern Azerbaijan and the South coast of the Caspian, as well as Herat, as direct parts of the empire. If Britain basically gave a guarantee of non-interference in Persia, it could be enough. It could also fulfill Churchill's desire to avert a European war by focusing Russia elsewhere, as Russia would know that such a guarantee would only be any good in a position of British weakness
Grey Wolf
Looking at the issue of food, I started this thread
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=13310
and its got some very interesting discussion
Regarding Russia, I am thinking that Britain basically has to agree to pay whatever Russia charges, probably has to buy out other countries' merchants and governments, and has to give other concessions in return. One obvious one in this ATL would be the cession of the entire Yukon Territory, which would have the advantage that if the Americans were to storm across Rupertsland they at least wouldn't get that. In Central Asia, Britain may have to come to some agreement on Afghanistan, or quite probably Persia where in this ATL Russia already has Southern Azerbaijan and the South coast of the Caspian, as well as Herat, as direct parts of the empire. If Britain basically gave a guarantee of non-interference in Persia, it could be enough. It could also fulfill Churchill's desire to avert a European war by focusing Russia elsewhere, as Russia would know that such a guarantee would only be any good in a position of British weakness
Grey Wolf
Part 5 - first naval actions
With the British fleet in the River Plate based largely at Montevideo, and the Americans at Buenos Aires, Mar del Plata and Bahia Blanca, no immediate great clash of the fleets occurred. Both sides built up their forces, with the British receiving the entire Mediterranean Fleet, including the second squadron of rather old tired ironclads, and the USA receiving the ships it had been basing at Valparaiso on the Pacific Coast. US operations against the remnant of Paraguayan traffic on the Parana and Uruguay rivers were the source of the first clashes, initially cruiser against cruiser battles, but in late November a clash of ironclads occurred off the Uruguay River estuary. The action itself is inconclusive, but the badly damaged US ironclads limp back to Bueno Aries, whilst one of the most modern of the British ironclads founders before it can make Montevideo and another is sunk by US cruisers as it straggles home alone.
The result from the British point of view is the removal from command of the senior admiral, and his replacement by the junior admiral on station, who just happens to be the newly-elevated son of King George V, Prince Ernest, Duke of York. A change of strategy occurs. It has become obvious that attempting to keep the rivers open for Paraguayan trade is not feasible until command of the sea is assured. The only way to do that is to challenge the Americans on better terms than a fight far away from the only base available to them. The Duke of York begins to draft his plans accordingly.
The naval action in the Orinoco, at the centre of the Venezuela crisis, has been more dramatic and more decisive. With neither side willing to concede the area in question to the possession of the other, the British and American forces meet in battle in early October 1885.....
- - -
How do I decide who wins here ? The forces are equal, the leadership is equal, the advantages and disadvantages are equal...???
Grey Wolf
With the British fleet in the River Plate based largely at Montevideo, and the Americans at Buenos Aires, Mar del Plata and Bahia Blanca, no immediate great clash of the fleets occurred. Both sides built up their forces, with the British receiving the entire Mediterranean Fleet, including the second squadron of rather old tired ironclads, and the USA receiving the ships it had been basing at Valparaiso on the Pacific Coast. US operations against the remnant of Paraguayan traffic on the Parana and Uruguay rivers were the source of the first clashes, initially cruiser against cruiser battles, but in late November a clash of ironclads occurred off the Uruguay River estuary. The action itself is inconclusive, but the badly damaged US ironclads limp back to Bueno Aries, whilst one of the most modern of the British ironclads founders before it can make Montevideo and another is sunk by US cruisers as it straggles home alone.
The result from the British point of view is the removal from command of the senior admiral, and his replacement by the junior admiral on station, who just happens to be the newly-elevated son of King George V, Prince Ernest, Duke of York. A change of strategy occurs. It has become obvious that attempting to keep the rivers open for Paraguayan trade is not feasible until command of the sea is assured. The only way to do that is to challenge the Americans on better terms than a fight far away from the only base available to them. The Duke of York begins to draft his plans accordingly.
The naval action in the Orinoco, at the centre of the Venezuela crisis, has been more dramatic and more decisive. With neither side willing to concede the area in question to the possession of the other, the British and American forces meet in battle in early October 1885.....
- - -
How do I decide who wins here ? The forces are equal, the leadership is equal, the advantages and disadvantages are equal...???
Grey Wolf
Othniel said:
Lol, there is that
I wasn't sure what people would think about me doing that though !One thing to note is that the US have their expeditionary force to Argentina in place before the war occurs, and the British needing to send theirs to Paraguay across the Atlantic after war has been declared.
Thus, if the Orinoco battle is a victory for the USA, then there is increased likelihood that the convoys won't get to the River Plate, which in turn would give the victory to the USA-Argentine forces, and which would doom Paraguay and probably doom Araucania & Patagonia. One can gather from the name and thrust of this timeline that that's not an outcome I would particuarly welcome !
Grey Wolf
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Part 6 - Opening Shots
The victory at the Orinoco was a vital one for British interests, and was the first full-scale battle between rival fleets of ironclads. Its results would be studied in detail, and the relative merits of the two sides picked apart time and again. But what could not be denied was that the British simply had better tactics on the day. The US commander, though a competent administrator proved unequal to his challenger and allowed his force to be caught between a twin line of British vessels. The cruisers of both sides fought generally as adjuncts to the main battle-lines, and to many observers the battle had all the hallmarks of Nelson at the Nile. British losses were not insignificant; as the two lines proceeded up either side of the US line, the lead British ships became gradually more damaged, and eventually hauled out of line, giving up their position to the next in line. By the end of the battle, two US cruisers had limped off to take news of the defeat to Caracas, the rest lay sunk in the river estuary, or beached to save their crews. Several British ironclads, some of the strongest in the Royal Navy, sat like floating wrecks, in little danger of sinking but with their guns and upper works ruined.
But victory at sea is more than just the aftermath of battle, it is always a what might have been. Had not the British won at the Orinoco, had in fact the US Navy won, then the British convoys taking much-needed troops to Montevideo would have come under threat, might perhaps have suffered loss at US hands, or been diverted or delayed. But, as it was, they were able to make their way across the Atlantic and to be received by the Duke of York's squadron off Montevideo.
There now occurred one of those strange sideshows that for weeks alone would rise up, dominate discussion, then disappear completely. Although a protectorate of Britain and France, Uruguay in its internal affairs was a self-ruling republic with a president elected by the people. The foreign mercantile communities had a strong say in local politics, but the native Uruguayan was a not man to remain completely mute. Now, seeing his country used as a base for British naval forces, and upon the arrival of the convoys from Britain, as a staging ground for British army units, an uprising occurred in the towns and country outside of Montevideo. The president attempted to negotiate with the rebels, but the Duke of York in discussion with the British commanding general decided that the threat of rebels across the line of march to the Paraguayan border could not be countenanced. Without either man waiting for replies from London, they launched a joint army-Marines operation, sweeping out from Montevideo and taking the main rebel-held towns in swift and bloody succession. With the resignation in protest of the Uruguayan president and his government, the British, with muted French acquiesence installed a leader of the Italianate business community as interim president. The only serious complaint to this high-handed action came from the Empire of Brazil, but Britain decided that short-term Brazilian hostility was a price worth paying for securing the line of march across Uruguay.
Grey Wolf
The victory at the Orinoco was a vital one for British interests, and was the first full-scale battle between rival fleets of ironclads. Its results would be studied in detail, and the relative merits of the two sides picked apart time and again. But what could not be denied was that the British simply had better tactics on the day. The US commander, though a competent administrator proved unequal to his challenger and allowed his force to be caught between a twin line of British vessels. The cruisers of both sides fought generally as adjuncts to the main battle-lines, and to many observers the battle had all the hallmarks of Nelson at the Nile. British losses were not insignificant; as the two lines proceeded up either side of the US line, the lead British ships became gradually more damaged, and eventually hauled out of line, giving up their position to the next in line. By the end of the battle, two US cruisers had limped off to take news of the defeat to Caracas, the rest lay sunk in the river estuary, or beached to save their crews. Several British ironclads, some of the strongest in the Royal Navy, sat like floating wrecks, in little danger of sinking but with their guns and upper works ruined.
But victory at sea is more than just the aftermath of battle, it is always a what might have been. Had not the British won at the Orinoco, had in fact the US Navy won, then the British convoys taking much-needed troops to Montevideo would have come under threat, might perhaps have suffered loss at US hands, or been diverted or delayed. But, as it was, they were able to make their way across the Atlantic and to be received by the Duke of York's squadron off Montevideo.
There now occurred one of those strange sideshows that for weeks alone would rise up, dominate discussion, then disappear completely. Although a protectorate of Britain and France, Uruguay in its internal affairs was a self-ruling republic with a president elected by the people. The foreign mercantile communities had a strong say in local politics, but the native Uruguayan was a not man to remain completely mute. Now, seeing his country used as a base for British naval forces, and upon the arrival of the convoys from Britain, as a staging ground for British army units, an uprising occurred in the towns and country outside of Montevideo. The president attempted to negotiate with the rebels, but the Duke of York in discussion with the British commanding general decided that the threat of rebels across the line of march to the Paraguayan border could not be countenanced. Without either man waiting for replies from London, they launched a joint army-Marines operation, sweeping out from Montevideo and taking the main rebel-held towns in swift and bloody succession. With the resignation in protest of the Uruguayan president and his government, the British, with muted French acquiesence installed a leader of the Italianate business community as interim president. The only serious complaint to this high-handed action came from the Empire of Brazil, but Britain decided that short-term Brazilian hostility was a price worth paying for securing the line of march across Uruguay.
Grey Wolf
Part 7 - the land fronts
With the opening naval engagements over, the Anglo-American War became very much a focus on two land fronts throughout 1886.
In the North, British reinforcements added to a standing defence in Rupertsland that had been strengthened significantly during the Klondike Crisis of 1875-6, Although some of the military institutions would prove to be wrongly-sited, aimed at the Russians in Alaska, rather than at the Americans, the size of the institutions and the modernity of the forces available would prove vital in beating back the initial American attack into the Western states.
In the South, as the US expeditionary force made its way to the front, to take over a section of the front from their Argentine allies, the British force crossed Uruguay, and into Paraguayan territory. By late Spring the two forces were in direct conflict in Corrientes and the Chaco.
The Federal Republic of Lower Canada adhered to the strictest neutrality, even beyond what was expected and required. In doing so it risked upsetting both belligerents, but it thought upsetting them by non-co-operation the less risky strategy than risking upsetting one more than the other by giving co-operation in time of war. Thus, the harbours in New Brunswick, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland remained closed to British and American warships. They also remained closed to agents of the two governments, the federal parliament in Montreal issuing a decree that neither coal, nor foodstuffs, nor supplies such as rope, timber, etc should be sold to either power. The markets suffered some severe shocks as a result of this, but the leadership in Montreal, meeting daily in emergency session, steered a course that would keep their nation out of the war, and thus allow it to emerge as an independent nation regardless of who won the conflict.
Events in Upper Canada in many ways mirrored those of its largely-Francophone neighbour, and with trade in complete crisis, the parliament in Toronto negotiated a far-reaching agreement with its counterpart in Montreal. To an extent this would ease the commercial crisis in Lower Canada, whilst politically it tied the fortunes of Upper Canada very much to those of its federal neighbour.
In the Autumn of 1866 as Russian grain convoys, escorted by cruisers and elderly ironclads of the Royal Navy. became frequent sights in the major commercial ports of Great Britain, the Governor of Rupertsland signed an agreement with his counterpart in Alaska, and signed away all of Britain's claims to the Yukon. In the midst of frontier battles the length and breadth of Western Rupertsland, the evacuation of the Yukon forts was seen as a bonus for the defence of the province, and the Russians who moved in to take their place were given hardly a thought by the British garrison as it withdrew from one of the most inhospitable postings in the British Empire.
Grey Wolf
With the opening naval engagements over, the Anglo-American War became very much a focus on two land fronts throughout 1886.
In the North, British reinforcements added to a standing defence in Rupertsland that had been strengthened significantly during the Klondike Crisis of 1875-6, Although some of the military institutions would prove to be wrongly-sited, aimed at the Russians in Alaska, rather than at the Americans, the size of the institutions and the modernity of the forces available would prove vital in beating back the initial American attack into the Western states.
In the South, as the US expeditionary force made its way to the front, to take over a section of the front from their Argentine allies, the British force crossed Uruguay, and into Paraguayan territory. By late Spring the two forces were in direct conflict in Corrientes and the Chaco.
The Federal Republic of Lower Canada adhered to the strictest neutrality, even beyond what was expected and required. In doing so it risked upsetting both belligerents, but it thought upsetting them by non-co-operation the less risky strategy than risking upsetting one more than the other by giving co-operation in time of war. Thus, the harbours in New Brunswick, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland remained closed to British and American warships. They also remained closed to agents of the two governments, the federal parliament in Montreal issuing a decree that neither coal, nor foodstuffs, nor supplies such as rope, timber, etc should be sold to either power. The markets suffered some severe shocks as a result of this, but the leadership in Montreal, meeting daily in emergency session, steered a course that would keep their nation out of the war, and thus allow it to emerge as an independent nation regardless of who won the conflict.
Events in Upper Canada in many ways mirrored those of its largely-Francophone neighbour, and with trade in complete crisis, the parliament in Toronto negotiated a far-reaching agreement with its counterpart in Montreal. To an extent this would ease the commercial crisis in Lower Canada, whilst politically it tied the fortunes of Upper Canada very much to those of its federal neighbour.
In the Autumn of 1866 as Russian grain convoys, escorted by cruisers and elderly ironclads of the Royal Navy. became frequent sights in the major commercial ports of Great Britain, the Governor of Rupertsland signed an agreement with his counterpart in Alaska, and signed away all of Britain's claims to the Yukon. In the midst of frontier battles the length and breadth of Western Rupertsland, the evacuation of the Yukon forts was seen as a bonus for the defence of the province, and the Russians who moved in to take their place were given hardly a thought by the British garrison as it withdrew from one of the most inhospitable postings in the British Empire.
Grey Wolf
Action in Europe ?
Regarding action, hmmm...do the powers all want a war ? France certainly doesn't - its become the abiding concern of the Regency to avoid being dragged into anyone's conflict. But at the same time, French national interests must be secured, hence the alliance with Poland and Sweden and the affirmation of the alliance with Belgium. But France does not want war.
One could wonder whether future generations would refer to Lord Randolph Churchill as the Great Peacemaker ? More below, but I plant the little bud of a thought here.
Serbia's reigning prince has a pan-Slavic agenda, which until now has looked like theory and dreams. Prince Michael has seen his chance with Austrian inaction, but how can Serbia and Montenegro act without Russian support ? Russia will not support intervention in the Ottoman Empire, at least not to any great degree as the Ottomans as allies secure their Southern front. Note that in OTL Tsar Nicholas I actually expressed that very sentiment - that having the Ottomans on the South was good for Russia, whereas destroying them would not be.
The role of Russia is going to be vital. With King Wilhelm I of Prussia approaching his 89th year, Prussia is not really politically fit to lead and initiate policy, despite the expansionists in power in Berlin. I cannot see the old king taking the gamble of war without Russian support.
But Russia is being bought off. This is where I see Lord Randolph Churchill coming into the equation. As well as significant amounts of money for Russian grain, Churchill has made two concessions on the one hand to secure the deal, and on the other with an eye to European peace. Britain will cede the Yukon once the grain convoys start arriving in great numbers, and Britain will agree to Russian intervention in Persia.
This latter remains a secret clause, but succeeds in diverting Russian attention from Europe. I think, therefore, you aren't going to get your European action just yet !
Grey Wolf
Regarding action, hmmm...do the powers all want a war ? France certainly doesn't - its become the abiding concern of the Regency to avoid being dragged into anyone's conflict. But at the same time, French national interests must be secured, hence the alliance with Poland and Sweden and the affirmation of the alliance with Belgium. But France does not want war.
One could wonder whether future generations would refer to Lord Randolph Churchill as the Great Peacemaker ? More below, but I plant the little bud of a thought here.
Serbia's reigning prince has a pan-Slavic agenda, which until now has looked like theory and dreams. Prince Michael has seen his chance with Austrian inaction, but how can Serbia and Montenegro act without Russian support ? Russia will not support intervention in the Ottoman Empire, at least not to any great degree as the Ottomans as allies secure their Southern front. Note that in OTL Tsar Nicholas I actually expressed that very sentiment - that having the Ottomans on the South was good for Russia, whereas destroying them would not be.
The role of Russia is going to be vital. With King Wilhelm I of Prussia approaching his 89th year, Prussia is not really politically fit to lead and initiate policy, despite the expansionists in power in Berlin. I cannot see the old king taking the gamble of war without Russian support.
But Russia is being bought off. This is where I see Lord Randolph Churchill coming into the equation. As well as significant amounts of money for Russian grain, Churchill has made two concessions on the one hand to secure the deal, and on the other with an eye to European peace. Britain will cede the Yukon once the grain convoys start arriving in great numbers, and Britain will agree to Russian intervention in Persia.
This latter remains a secret clause, but succeeds in diverting Russian attention from Europe. I think, therefore, you aren't going to get your European action just yet !
Grey Wolf
Part 8
1887 opened very much as 1886 had begun. The land warfare in South America continued, with Britain shipping troops across the Atlantic, and the USA sending reinforcements along the Pacific coast and either across the Andes from Chile or around Cape Horn.
Chile continued pressing King Achilles' government over Araucania, with more settlers and war veterans entering Mapuche territory in a war that it was not in the interests of the Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia to acknowledge existed.
In Europe, a period of Regency by Archduke Karl Ludwig, the uncle of Emperor Rudolph came to an end as Rudolph seemed to recover from his depression and made his first public appearances since the muted and tragic circumstances that had led to his coronation. By Spring he had even seemed to have refound a verve for life, being seen on less formal occasions. The news in Summer of 1887 that he was engaged to be married came as a shock, but a welcome one at that. His bride-to-be was just seventeen, Archduchess Luisa Antoinette of the Habsburg (Tuscany) line, the daughter of Grand Duke Ferdinand IV of Tuscany.
US advances in Rupertsland continued to be hardfought and costly, but advance slowly they did.
Naval action in the River Plate continued in a desultory fashion. The Duke of York's more focused and intensive policy came to nothing as the US refused battle on unequal terms, and issued out when unharassed. After the decisive action in the Orinoco estuary it seemed as if neither side was willing to risk such a decisive encounter a second time around for fear of being on the losing side.
Grey Wolf
1887 opened very much as 1886 had begun. The land warfare in South America continued, with Britain shipping troops across the Atlantic, and the USA sending reinforcements along the Pacific coast and either across the Andes from Chile or around Cape Horn.
Chile continued pressing King Achilles' government over Araucania, with more settlers and war veterans entering Mapuche territory in a war that it was not in the interests of the Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia to acknowledge existed.
In Europe, a period of Regency by Archduke Karl Ludwig, the uncle of Emperor Rudolph came to an end as Rudolph seemed to recover from his depression and made his first public appearances since the muted and tragic circumstances that had led to his coronation. By Spring he had even seemed to have refound a verve for life, being seen on less formal occasions. The news in Summer of 1887 that he was engaged to be married came as a shock, but a welcome one at that. His bride-to-be was just seventeen, Archduchess Luisa Antoinette of the Habsburg (Tuscany) line, the daughter of Grand Duke Ferdinand IV of Tuscany.
US advances in Rupertsland continued to be hardfought and costly, but advance slowly they did.
Naval action in the River Plate continued in a desultory fashion. The Duke of York's more focused and intensive policy came to nothing as the US refused battle on unequal terms, and issued out when unharassed. After the decisive action in the Orinoco estuary it seemed as if neither side was willing to risk such a decisive encounter a second time around for fear of being on the losing side.
Grey Wolf
Faeelin said:
Uruguay ? Which has been an Anglo-French protectorate since the 1840s when it, in a way, asked to be ?
And WHICH South American nations ? Venezuela and Argentina are already allied to the USA, Paraguay and Araucania/Patagonia are allied to Britain. I can't see Bolivia or Peru doing anything so soon after their defeat in the War of the Pacific and if they did they would probably back Britain.
So, it comes down to Brazil and Colombia ? The latter is irrelevant unless it wants to make it relevant. Brazil, well does it want to join the war ? Britain is gambling that it doesn't, but who knows you may be right
Grey Wolf
Othniel said:
Well, Colombia would be relevant if they declared for Britain and invaded the UPCA or Venezuela, but failing that I can't see it.
Well, the supply convoys come from the Ukraine via the Black Sea through the Bosphorus/Hellespont and via the Mediterranean.
Even if not, Sweden and Denmark would not have much to gain by antagonising Russia at this point
Spain is probably watching the war between Britain and the USA, and maybe thinks to enter if Britain is clearly going to win
Grey Wolf