A Plethora of Princes (12) - The Sighing of The Wind

[Grey Wolf]

It is the way of the world, that when some tensions are sorted, some crises averted, there crop up new ones, new flashpoints to drag the attention of the newspapers and their readers to yet another part of the world, enlighten them with maps and background, then move one once there is a solution there and a new crisis springing afresh elsewhere. Of course, it is usually the case that these new crises have been rumbling along at a lower level for some time, that perhaps, even, previous eruptions have occurred but gone unnoticed such was public attention on other matters. But sometimes the eruption is so large, the build-up seemingly so insignificant, that the events of that morning's newspaper seem as if they have been entirely fabricated out of new material.

Such was the case in January 1883 in Paris. To be sure, the Radicals had risen up in 1876 already, forced a new constitution upon the king and taken the reins of parliamentary power. They had had noted successes in the repudiation of the Protocol of Saint Petersburg and the abolition of slavery across the French Empire, but they had had noted failures too, largest of all their inability to drag France into the Italian War on the side of Piedmont-Sardinia and the nationalists against the will of the king. Since the conclusion of that conflict, and the defeat for King Umberto I and his cause, relations between the King and his parliament had been dire, and intercourse had degenerated into running street battles between the rival supporters of King Louis Philippe II on the one hand, and the Radicals on the other.

But even this had begun to seem normal. The occasional political assassination, the occasional full-pitched battle between rival gangs, it had become commonplace by the start of 1883. Readers of the newspapers no longer remarked in horror upon the events in Paris, but instead spoke in wry amusement of the latest twists and turns. Partisans of the king assured their friends that Louis Philippe II would soon have his parliament under control once more. Partisans of the Radicals assured theirs that the parliament would soon have the King under their control. A solution to the power struggle, one way or the other, was expected in a traditional manner - one side would be forced to back down.

Thus, the assassination of King Louis Philippe II, his wife Queen Marie, and the Duke of Orleans, Prince Louis Philippe, heir to the French throne, caught the world in a moment of shock. The bloody nature of the killings, blown apart by a bomb thrown at their carriage, and the fact that they had been on the way to a New Year's mass at the cathedral of Notre Dame, outraged society. Nobody would claim responsibility in the weeks to come, but the suspicion fell by its very nature upon the Radical party, the king's enemies whose vitriole seemed almost to suggest that they would welcome his removal by force.

The new King was the Duke of Orleans' younger brother, Prince Charles, Duke of Montpensier, a mere child at seven years of age. The Regent for the new monarch, crowned King Charles XI, was Prince Robert of Orleans, Duke of Chartres and brother of the late King Louis Philippe II.

It was clear to all that the situation that had been in existence prior to the assassination could not be allowed to continue. The weekly battles and brawls between the two factions had become an embarassment to France and a danger to the stability of the kingdom. The Regent's first act was to prorogue the assembly and declare martial law throughout Paris and the other metropolitan districts. Curfew breakers, gang members of whatever affiliation, were summarily executed, and by the time that martial law was lifted in July of 1883 the situation in the streets had settled down once more.

Many amongst the more extreme Radical members of the assembly cried foul at this development. But public sympathy was on the side of the young king, and backed the actions of the Regency in acting to restore order and the rule of law. Marches and shows of support were organised by the government, and faced with a popular upswing in feeling towards the monarchy the majority of the Radicals backed down. Those who did not were arrested, and either imprisoned or exiled. Many of those who chose exile crossed the Atlantic to the independent federal republic of Lower Canada, where there was a substantial Francophone population.

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

Well either its an inter radical or somebody gets blamed outside the country thus starting a war. Going with the first, tensions will thrust a charsmatic young king to increasing power.

But for now continue. I'll just speculate on the immeadate consquences.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Sighing of The Wind - Part 2

1883 would see the foundation stone laid on the greatest engineering undertaking since the completion of the Suez Canal in the 1860s. The Trans-Oceanic canal from the Pacific coast of the United Provinces of Central America, to the Caribbean coast of the Kingdom of Miskitia was to be a vast undertaking, and one which at its inception was estimated to take between eight and ten years to complete. President Sherman of the United States was present in person at the ceremony, marking both the importance to the USA of the project and also to many indicating how comnpletely subjugated to the USA the UPCA had become. Although the UPCA's president presided at the ceremony, and although Sherman, like the other dignatories, was officially his guest, there was little doubting what the true relationship between the two men was.

Under Sherman's vigorous leadership the United States continued to push its agenda for the Americas. The War of the Pacific was brought to a mediated end by US pressure upon Chile. Bolivia lost its oceanic province and the town of Antofagusta, and the Chilean-owned mines in Southern Peru were returned to their owners, but the only Peruvian land to be ceded to Chile was, in an ironic twist of Fate not missed in Madrid, the Chincha Islands. The settlement did not please any side completely, such is the nature of compromises, and many neutral observers commented that it seemed to be storing up trouble for the future.

Of more immediate concern was the situation along the Araucanian border, where Chilean entrepreneurs and army veterans had begun to encroach upon Mapuche territory. King Achilles I of Araucania and Patagonia once again called for aid upon his protecting power, Great Britain, and in London Prime Minister Spencer Walpole's cabinet was moved to grant the required aid.

Just months after Anglo-US relations had seemed at last to have settled down from their high point of tension, Great Britain found itself at odds once again with the Sherman administration. A full-blown war scare in the middle of 1883 led to a rash of new naval construction and a strident tone in the British press at American arrogance and uppitiness. That the US press was full of similar sentiments about Great Britain did not seem to lead anyone to the obvious conclusion as to how the two powers viewed each other.

Tension turned to crisis with the assassination in La Paz of Francesco Solano Lopez, dictator and virtual emperor of Paraguay. With no designated successor, the Paraguayan government found itself in disarray. There were many who suspected Argentine involvement in the murder of their leader, and this seemed to be confirmed when an uprising of land-owners in one of the frontier ex-Argentine provinces was discovered to have been orchestrated by Buenos Aires. War fever gripped the nation, and despite the chaotic situation at the top, Paraguay's new rulers found themselves all but dragged into war with Argentina. A formal declaration was issued in October, but by then clashes had already occurred between army units of both nations intervening in the rebellious province.

In London, Prime Minister Spencer Walpole was in a quandary. Paraguay was a British ally, and Great Britain had a history of supporting that country, especially against Argentine aggression. In addition, Paraguay was an important trade partner, and the war threatened additionally the peace within the Republic of Uruguay, still jointly an Anglo-French protectorate. But the situation was different from that of twenty years previously. Direct British intervention would not be viewed well in Washington, and could indeed lead current tensions over Araucania into outright war.

But Great Britain could not afford to do nothing. With huge investments and massive trading interests at stake, the mercantile class was clamouring for action. In addition, inaction would appear to signal to Chile that Britain dared not intervene in favour of the Mapuche either. In a frantic round of negotiations, Walpole secured the consent of the French Regent, the Duke of Chartres, to the dispatch of a joint Anglo-French expedition to the River Plate. At the same time, a second squadron of Royal Navy ironclads would put into Patagonian ports to show solidarity with King Achilles I, and to reassure British merchants, and the largely Welsh immigrant population that had grown up in the previous two decades.

By the start of 1884 it was clear that the war was not going well for Paraguay. Lacking a unified leadership, and still reeling in shock at the pace of events, Paraguay's armies retreated from the frontier provinces into their heartland, stabilising the front before a renewed Argentine offensive in the Spring. To the Anglo-French squadron in the River Plate it was clear that Argentina was receiving a great amount of US aid - US merchant ships put into Buenos Aires in large numbers almost daily, and the presence of American cruisers off the coast implied that they were under formal US Navy protection. Reports from the field confirmed that American-made weapons, artillery and logistical materiele were appearing in great number. There were also disturbing reports of US advisors at the front, and even of a US volunteer unit fighting alongside the Argentines.

Steering a middle course throughout 1884, Britain focused upon its protectorates, sending a diplomatic mission to Araucania to aid King Achilles I in his negotiations with an intransigent Chilean government, and landing Marines in Montevideo to assure the local communities that the Republic of Uruguay was safe under its protectors' eyes. The French confined their operations to a naval presence, but rhetoric from the Regency in Paris assured the government of Uruguay that France remained as firmly committed to her security as did Great Britain.

The war dragged on, with Paraguay rebuffing several offers of an armistice, and refusing to accept US offers of mediation. President Sherman's government began to retaliate against Paraguayan refusals to come to the peace table, imposing strict limits and tarrifs on that amount of Paraguayan trade that was still able to come down the Parana under British protection. It was election year in the United States and all indications were that Sherman's Reform Party was going to sweep the board once again. Four years of vigorous action in defence of the Monroe Doctrine had revitalised American self-esteem and the clash with the European maritime powers was seen as a conflict of the New World and the Old, a trial of strength as to whom was to have the upper hand in the new century that lay ahead.

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

Go on. This story doesn't end here I hope.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Go on. This story doesn't end here I hope.

I hope not ! Though if it did you could have a world set up for a detailed wargame.

I'm not feeling so good and am gonna go to bed. I need some data on the sons of Francisco Solano Lopez anyway...him and Eliza Lynch, I know the eldest who in OTL died in battle with him was called Panchita. Anyone able to find some more info ?

Thanks, and Regards

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Part 3 - War with the USA

1885 saw the inauguaration of President William T. Sherman for his second term, but in Britain the existing Moderate-majority government fell after a newspaper campaign in favour of threatened mercantile interests. King George V dissolved parliament, and in a return almost as stunning as that had brough Spencer Walpole's party to governance the previous time around, the Reform Party under the venerable William E. Gladstone was elected to office. The defection of the mercantile interests from the Moderates was the major factor in this election success, and the victory was both a mandate for, and a millstone requiring, a stronger policy overseas. In defeat, Spencer Walpole retired from the front row of political life, later securing election to the Senate but dedicating the rest of his days to the study of history, eventually becoming as famous for his humungous tomes as he was for his period of political leadership.

Leadership of the Moderate Party devolved upon thirty-seven year-old Lord Randolph Churchill, a scion of the Duke of Marlborough's family, and as such the first descendant of a formerly-attainted noble to rise to party leadership. With the Reform Party having secured a simple, but not overall majority, Lord Randolph Churchill elected to place the Moderates in coalition government with them, and secured for himself the position of Foreign Secretary in Gladstone's ministry, the youngest man in a long period to have held the post.

The Reform-Moderate government was immediately faced by a crisis, then by a tragedy that would rock the old monarchies of Europe to their souls. The crisis seemed on the surface to be the smaller thing, an argument with Venezuela that had been brewing since the late 1870s when Venezuelan settlers had begun crossing the Orinoco River into territory claimed by British Guyana. 1885, a Venezuelan official visited one of these settlements in a formal capacity and delivered to it a deed of incorporation as a municipality. It was a symbolic act, but its significance was that no longer were the settlements East of the Orinoco mere squatters camps, this one, an impoverished hole by any account, now had a charter and recognition as a part of the Venezuelan body politic. Prime Minister Gladstone despatched two cruisers to the mouth of the Orinoco, and instructed his government's minister in Caracas to protest the act in the strongest possible terms. The expectation was that this would be enough to secure the retraction of the charter.

But all attention was soon to be dragged towards Vienna. On a deer-hunting expedition with his father, Crown Prince Rudolph broke with all protocol and moved into the field to have a shot at the rearmost deer from a reverse angle. His shot missed the deer, but struck his father, the Emperor Franz III Josef, in the head. Two days later the emperor was dead, and Rudolph, although numb with shock, was now Emperor of Austria.

Even as the crowned heads of Europe converged upon Vienna for the funeral, further events of significance were underway in South America. In Paraguay a junta of three generals seized power, installed the eldest son of the late Francisco Solana Lopez as a puppet president, and tried to build on the Lopez name to rally the country. But Francisco 'Panchito' Lopez turned out to be a man with a hidden talent, or a hidden agenda as some would declare. Within two months he had made his presidency a reality, relegated two of the generals to advisory roles and had the third shot for insubordination. Appealing to the memory of his father and his grandfather, he gathered a New Army and prepared to take the field against the Argentine army, reversing what had become a policy based purely upon defence, and which was seeing increasing numbers of US-made artillery delivered to the Argentinians in an effort to smash through the defensive lines. Realising that Paraguay in its desperate straits could never match this, Panchito decided to go on the offensive.

A double blow was soon to be landed on the government of Gladstone and Churchill in London. First came the astounding news that President Sherman had intervened personally over the Orinoco River dispute and declared that British actions were unacceptable under the Monroe Doctrine. Two US ironclads were dispatched to the scene and what had seemed to be a minor conflict with a South American nation had become a major crisis with the USA. The second blow was on the same fashion as the first. As Panchito Lopez's armies took to the offensive, the USA increased its aid to the Argentine Republic, dispatching more war materiele on excessively favourable terms, and to cap it off sending two cruisers to the mouth of the Parana River to interdict Paraguayan trade. The official position was that Paraguay was at blame for not having responded to US offers to mediate a peace. Seeing its only source of external revenue cut off, Paraguay at first complained voiciferously, and when that appeared to be having no effect appealed to Britain under the terms of the 1840s alliance, finally upping the ante by declaring war upon the USA in the high Summer of 1885.

Events were beginning to move fast in other theatres as well, threatening that Great Britain would find itself simply an observer of one crisis after another. Emperor Rudolph's first months in government were marked by complete inaction. It was said that the twnety-seven year old emperor spent his days in isolation, and that the business of government was being carried on entirely by his ministers. The situation in Lombardy-Venetia which had appeared to have at last settled down, flared up again. Lombard League and Venetian Association protests broke out, masking any ambitions for greater Italian national goals in claimed desires for self-rule, and in the more extreme speeches independence under an Austrian Archduke.

In the Balkans, Prince Michael of Serbia sensed the possibility of realising his dreams. He pushed at the boundaries, seeing if the past automatic response of the Austrians would occur - whether an army would be deployed on the border and a harshly worded instruction delivered to Belgrade. No army appeared, no instruction was delivered. Vienna was paralysed by the emperor's inaction. King Michael hastily approached Montenegro for a mutual understanding, and despatched an emissary to Tsar Aleksandr II's court in Saint Petersburg.

Neither Russia, nor Prussia, were sleeping. The sudden weakness of Austria, the inability of the centre to do anything more than continue with alread-decided policy was seen as a window of opportunity. In September 1885 the two nations signed a treaty of alliance. A fortnight later, Russia signed similar understandings with Serbia and Montenegro.

Back in London, the British government was being faced with almost constant crises. A sounding out of Paris, had resulted in the expected reply from the Regency - the Duke of Chartres pledged French support for the joint action in Uruguay and would assist King Achilles I in Araucania and Patagonia with anything short of military action. But what was unsaid was anything about Paraguay, or what would happen if Chile rejected all current negotiations with King Achilles' government - which it did in late September.

It was now a question of national pride. Panchito Lopez's offensive had recaptured about half of the ground lost to Argentine aggression, but the increasing presence of US personnel was halting a further advance, and the fitting out of an expeditionary force in New York was a warning of what was to come. Attempting to stem the tide by intervening in what seemed to be the least serious of the problems, Gladstone ordered the British Caribbean squadron to put into the Orinoco en masse, and at the same time a regiment of British West Indian troops to advance from British Guyana into the disputed territory.

October 1885 brought the shock news that, his bluff having been called, President Sherman was refusing to accept the British actions. Speaking on the dispatch of the expeditionary force to the River Plate, Sherman stated that if Britain did not of itself withdraw its forces from the Orinoco, he would request of Congress the force necessary to make them.

In a quandary, Gladstone and Churchill met with the Radical Party leadership in London, and even conferred with the king and the Prince of Wales. Was there any way out except war ? Despite every facet of their being being against war, the Radical Party leadership could come up with nothing except abject surrender as an option. King George V, and Prince George, heir to the throne, gave their private opinion that if war it must be, then war it would be. Before a packed House of Commons, Prime Minister William E. Gladstone announced to the country the rejection of the US ultimatum and emphasised that the operation to remove the illegal Venezuelan settlements would continue. Knowing that this was in essence an acceptance of the inevitability of war, Gladstone's government immediately dispatched elements of the Standing Army to Rupertsland, and issued secret mobilisation orders to all stations. The Mediterranean Fleet was to sail immediately for the River Plate, and the Home Fleet stand ready to cross the Atlantic at need.

A week later, President Sherman received from the US Congress the necessary backing to declare war upon Great Britain. He wasted no time in doing so.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I suppose war between Great Britain and the USA will catch one somewhat by surprise ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

I suppose war between Great Britain and the USA will catch one somewhat by surprise ?

Grey Wolf

Not really. I was suspecting Mexico and the US, but Britian could be expected as well for their ties to Canada. Now if it was say the Ottoman Empire, I would have fallen out of my chair.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Not really. I was suspecting Mexico and the US, but Britian could be expected as well for their ties to Canada. Now if it was say the Ottoman Empire, I would have fallen out of my chair.

Well, the imperatives of challenging breaches of the Monroe Doctrine would make clashes with Britain more likely. In addition, British mercantile and financial interests were in OTL a lot tied up in Argentine cattle - here it would be Paraguayan. Also in railroad investments, and with Welsh settlers in Patagonia (here this is part of the Mapuche kingdom). Britain has invested a lot in these areas for a political return - now the USA is challenging the political aspect and in so doing is threatening both investments and trade, both of which are huge and vital to several British banking houses, including Barings who in OTL almost went bankrupt after a crisis in S America anyway

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

I wonder how many others may get involved. Certainly the US is able to compare with Britian, but with the Weakening of the Southern States, you can't be sure. Such a recent war is going to disrupt their ability to wage an effective war, but sense they are in that mindset already....well that picture is clearly drawn for both sides of that coin. I'm not sure how effectivly the US can hold out, but they may walk away with Alberta( at least that would be my goal if I won).

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well, France, Miskitia, Upper and Lower Canada will be very quick to declare their neutrality, I am pretty sure of that.

Regarding the Balkans, given that the Ottoman Empire is actually on the up and is allied to Russia, what can realistically be attempted here ?

I suppose Greece would have its eyes on the Republic of the Ionian Islands, a British protectorate.

Serbia and Montenegro have aims, but whilst Serbia might aim towards the Vojvojdina somewhat, the only realistic Montenegrin aims are for parts of Hercegovina or Shkoder, unless it wants to try for Austrian Cattaro, which would be a very tempting idea if they could be sure of getting it.

Grey Wolf

 

[Othniel]

Prussia might be Ambitious enough to side with the USA.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I wonder how many others may get involved. Certainly the US is able to compare with Britian, but with the Weakening of the Southern States, you can't be sure. Such a recent war is going to disrupt their ability to wage an effective war, but sense they are in that mindset already....well that picture is clearly drawn for both sides of that coin. I'm not sure how effectivly the US can hold out, but they may walk away with Alberta( at least that would be my goal if I won).

Ouch... I have been reading with much interest the most recent developments. Clearly the US has been spoiling for a fight with the Euros(Britain in particular) to enforce and expand what they see as their sphere of influence. One can only hope that they get their B*tts handed to them for their arrogance and callous disregard for the pre-existing interests of others. As to the "Monroe Doctrine" no European state ever acknowledged that it held any basis in international law. None of them have anything to gain by allowing the US to establish the precedent. Is it not the same with this Timeline.

What are the relative naval strengths of the two primaries in TTL.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Prussia might be Ambitious enough to side with the USA.

I've been having difficulty seeing how the two strands could join up. It doesn't seem logical that any nation involved in the European crisis could really gain anything by picking a side in the Anglo-American War. For example, Prussia has virtually nothing to gain by going to war with Britain - their interests do not clash on the continent, Britain is hardly likely to come to the aid of Hannover in this ATL, the USA can provide for Prussia nothing that it cannot provide for itself, or get from another ally more easily.

I'm wondering if a December 1941 situation is feasible - if Hitler hadn't declared war on the USA you could have had two wars going on side-by-side. Thus there would be the global Anglo-American War, and a second General European War ? Of course, the European war might not break out, but there are going to be definite manoevrings in anticipation of it

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Ouch... I have been reading with much interest the most recent developments. Clearly the US has been spoiling for a fight with the Euros(Britain in particular) to enforce and expand what they see as their sphere of influence. One can only hope that they get their B*tts handed to them for their arrogance and callous disregard for the pre-existing interests of others. As to the "Monroe Doctrine" no European state ever acknowledged that it held any basis in international law. None of them have anything to gain by allowing the US to establish the precedent. Is it not the same with this Timeline.

What are the relative naval strengths of the two primaries in TTL.

Thank you for reading and commenting, its always good to know that people are interested in it.

I'm thinking the relative naval strengths are pretty equal. The US saw a build up during the US Civil War and a kick to it during the mid 1870s Klondike Crisis, and Sherman's administration will have continued to build up the navy.

Britain had a relative decline under the Radicals, but from a good base, and also saw a build-up during the Klondike Crisis. The Moderate (i.e. reformed conservative) and now Reform-Moderate government will have continued the build-up also.

What exactly these strengths are could be painful to work out in terms of individual ships. I think I'm better at the bigger picture. I will probably need to work it out in terms of fleets and squadrons, especially since the USA has a large-ish part of its fleet in the Pacific whereas most of the British will be concentrated immediately in the Atlantic

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The future Kingdom of Paraguay ?

If Britain wins...

You could see a constitutional monarchy in Paraguay. Looking back this seems really strange to us, but the number of factors in favour of it would be large :-

1. OTL San Martin favoured a constitutional monarchy for the federation of Bolivia and Peru, thus the idea has always been there under the surface

2. Under Francia and both Lopez's OTL Paraguay was basically a country ruled by a de facto emperor anyway.

3. Paraguay's immediate neighbours even in OTL include the Empire of Brazil

4. In the scenario of a British win the Monroe Doctrine is going to be smashed to pieces, thus goodbye to any even pseudo-legal reason why a monarchy cannot be formed in South America

5. Again, if the British win then the Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia will be secure in the South of the continent

6. Although not directly relevant there will remain the Kingdom of Miskitia in Central America as an independent nation.

7. A British win will see British investment and trade experience a massive resurgance in Paraguay, and thus British support for a constitutional change can be expected

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

As to the "Monroe Doctrine" no European state ever acknowledged that it held any basis in international law. None of them have anything to gain by allowing the US to establish the precedent. Is it not the same with this Timeline.

Actually, that's not entirely true.

In so far as the Monroe Doctrine when promulgated was aimed at preventing Spain from reconquering its lost South and Central American empire, Britain in the form of Canning was in favour of it.

In addition the Clayton-Bulwer (hope I got their names right !) treaty at the end of the 1840s can be said to be based off the Monroe Doctrine, in so far that Britain agreed to pull back some of its interests in Central America (which in the end it did not actually do at this time). Later, the British renouncing of interest in Miskitia was based off the same foundation.

In the ATL there certainly hasn't been the latter, and the history of Anglo-American rivalry has generally shown little British regard for the Monroe Doctrine. Certain governments however have applied it to their own policy outlook - such as in establishing Miskitia as fully independent and able to make its own foreign policy, and in the independence of Upper and Lower Canada at the start of the 1870s. Both of these actions were a sign of British withdrawal from some areas of direct influence and in addressing US concerns can be said to be in part motivated by the Monroe Doctrine.

The main difference in the 1880s is that Sherman's administration is not interested in gradual and negotiated change where the British feel able to make concessions over time. There is a definite spirit that the USA has come of age, and European influence where-ever it exists in the Americas will be challenged and challenged hard, no pussy-footing around. I wonder whether one could even put that phrase into Sherman's mouth ? I guess it depends on the etymology of pussy-footing and when it was a current term ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Sighing of The Wind - Part 4

The outbreak of war between Britain and the United States does not catch anybody by surprise. It is followed shortly by a small rash of declarations of neutrality - from the Regency in France, from King George III in Miskitia, from the Republic of Upper Canada and the Federal Republic of Lower Canada and from the Kingdom of Ireland.

In London, Prime Minister William E. Gladstone sets up a special body to look into sourcing alternative sources of grain. The war in Southern America was already causing serious difficulties to beef imports, now the loss of US, and probably of Rupertsland, grain imports was going to be felt very strongly indeed. Every possible source was to be investigated, and subsidies offered to other nations to develop nascent agricultural sectors to meet British needs if at all possible. As a sign of the importance with which Britain viewed this matter, Foreign Secretary Lord Randolph Churchill set sail for Saint Petersburg aboard a RN cruiser to discuss the possibility of purchasing Russian grain en masse from the Ukraine.

The dispositions of the Royal Navy were clearly going to be vital to any chance of victory in this contest. Thomas George Baring, First Earl of Northbrook held the portfolio of First Lord of the Admiralty under Gladstone. Of the famous Baring brothers banking family, he felt very strongly the family's desperate straits over the situation in Southern America, and has sometimes been accused by historians of being too beholden to their concerns, rather than taking a more objective view of the crisis. Nevertheless, it was Northbrook who issued the early mobilisation orders, and who ordered the Mediterranean Fleet to the River Plate before the formal announcement of war. And it was Northbrook who saw through parliament the Emergency Naval Provisions Act which would double the naval budget for the duration of the war, and provide for the immediate laying down of a large number of new warships of all types. Northbrook was also responsible for the purchase from France of two relatively new ironclads which the Regency agreed to sell at a favourable price.

European diplomacy was proving to be a headache at this time, even as Britain wished itself to be free of such commitments and able to focus on the war with the USA. Having to establish some sort of good relations with Russia, but at the same time maintain the good relationship with France, British statesmen walked a tightrope in late 1885-early 1886. Lord Randolph Churchill, after visiting Tsar Aleksandr II in Saint Petersburg and signing a commercial treaty for vast amounts of Ukrainian grain, moved on to visit Berlin, Vienna and finally Paris where he spent a week in the company of the Duke of Chartres. Exact details of the discussions are never easy for the historian to come by, but it is obvious from everything that happened afterwards that Churchill was attempting to calm the European crisis down. In November 1886 France announced a formal defensive alliance with both Poland and Sweden, quite obviously aimed against the prospect of any Russo-Prussian aggression with regard to either kingdom. A formal restatement of the alliance with Belgium was to follow the succeeding month. Whilst all of this served to ratchet up the tension it did not produce the spark to turn the crisis into war, but nevertheless come Christmas 1885 Lord Randolph Churchill was once again to be found in Paris.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The Rival Fleets

I offer no apologies for being vague about exact numbers as I feel that getting too deeply into that area has all the potential for simply going badly wrong and getting bogged down. Instead I've decided to adopt the arbitrary measure of a squadron. Whilst squadrons of ironclads can be expected to be all together come war, a squadron of cruisers could spend the whole time spread out over a large area. Nevertheless, I hope the following makes some kind of sense !

US - by squadron

1. ironclads

a Pacific UPCA
b Pacific River Plate / Valparaiso
c Atlantic Orinoco
d Atlantic New York
e Reserve (Atlantic) Mobilising

2. cruisers

a Pacific Oregon
b Pacific S. Pacific
c Atlantic Orinoco
d Atlantic Escort to River Plate
e Atlantic New York


Great Britain - by squadron

1. ironclads

a Mediterranean River Plate
b Mediterranean River Plate
c Home Escort to Rupertsland
d Home Home
e Atlantic Orinoco
f Reserve (Home) Mobilising

2. cruisers

a Mediterranean River Plate
b Atlantic Jamaica
c Atlantic Orinoco
d Atlantic Escort to Rupertsland
e Home Home
f Reserve (Home) Mobilising


As will be seen, this is all very rough. I've given the RN a slight numerical advantage, but this going to be made up of older ships, and can be found in the second squadron of Mediterranean ironclads, and in the reserve squadron of cruisers.

These are the dispositions when the formal declaration of war comes through, and thus reflect the position on the ground (so to speak) at that time.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Oh bollox, tabbing didn't come out...is there any way using VB Code to create a table ?

Grey Wolf