A Plethora of Princes (10) - Realignments

Ideas into the future...

Prime Minister John Sketchley of Great Britain has emerged from the American Civil War in a very interesting position. He and the British Radical Party have effectively steered British foreign policy away from alliance with France towards alliance with the USA. Whereas before anti-Americanism was a driving factor, at the Union victory in late 1871 it is principles which are lauded and not position.

The abolition of slavery across the USA occurs in the wake of the war, the Southern states are disenfranchised, they must reform and reapply for admission to the Union. As a balance, more states from the old West are admitted, and with the US Army giving grants of land to veterans to settle in Oregon, the Oregon Territory is admitted as North and South Oregon.

This influx of people will lead to another major event occurring in the mid 1870s which will once again change the geo-political landscape of the world - the Klondike Gold Rush. In the borderlands between American Oregon and Russian Alaska settlers locate gold, and by 1875 a major gold rush is under way.

By this time Charles Sumner is president, elected on a clean sweep of the eligible states in thew 1872 election. Charles F. Adams retires into History and the various contradictyory judgements that will be laid upon him. Catching the times from British politics, the Northern Democrats reform as the Reform Party. The South remains under military occupation, with new state boundaries under discussion, new names and Northern officials overseeing what has been split into Military Districts within certain broader territories.

Tensions with Texas, with Deseret and with Spain remain high throughout the 1870s but the Klondike refocuses the major national attention. President Sumner has little time for the Russians, believing them to be backwards, corrupt and anti-democratic. He pushes US settlers' claims to the brink of war.

Tsar Alexander II of Russia does not fear war. He has spent the last decade rebuilding Russia since its defeat in the General European War. On the one hand there have been liberal reforms - the emancipation of the serfs and the establishment of an assembly of village councils. On the other hand there have been military reforms. The lessons of the US Civil War have been avidly followed in Saint Petersburg and built upon there. The navy has been rebuilt; devastated by the mid 1860s war, it languished for several years but in the ironclad, Alexander and his ministers saw the chance to take Russia forward once again.

In Britain, the 1873 election sees the Radical-Reform coalition returned for a second term under Prime Minister John Sketchley, and also the virtual annihilation of the Whigs, the fourth party disappearing as its natural constituency split either towards Gladstone's Reform Party or Disraeli's Moderate Party.

Upper and Lower Canada are made independent by joint agreement of the USA and Great Britain, tself-determination for their populaces seen as the major factor, with both powers being the guarantors, and Britain reserving for itself some degree of paramount rights, mainly in the field of foreign affairs. Rupertsland continues to develop as a constitutional dominion, seeing some major expenditure in the far North-West as the Russo-American crisis gathers to a head, and Britain looks to strengthen its own border and forces facing off against Russian Alaska. Being posted to the Yukon enters English slang much as being sent to Outer Mongolia has in OTL.

Grey Wolf
 
Realignments - Part 2

Historians would later comment that there appeared to be some guiding act of providence keeping Russia's focus away from Central Asia in this period. First it was China, then it was the General European War, now it was Alaska and the Klondike Crisis. Meanwhile, the Central Asian states, which had been under Russian onslaught for decades, were able to retrench and modernise, often with clandestine British aid.

The disintegration of Imperial China never quite came about. So much had been written about its death throes and its imminent demise, that when a new emperor managed to suppress the revolts of Chinese Muslims in the Central provinces, managed to re-establish Imperial rule throughout Shantung and create a significant and safe land bridge with Shanghai, and was able to beat off renewed Russian pressure over the Maritime Province, the European powers were at first caught off guard. They had become used to dealing with successor states, chief amongst which were the Taiping in the East, or Yakib Beg's Kashgaria in the West, and though the Chinese revival did not threaten these, nor several other entities which had come into being, it did cause a serious amount of reorientation across the European halls of power. And Britain in Canton and France in Kwangchow both found themselves in possession of what was still formally Imperial Chinese territory, held by military force of arms and ceded only by the Taiping in Nanking. Both powers found themselves having to open negotiations with a revived Imperial court in Peking.

For Britain this was not a development to be seen in isolation. The militarisation of the Yukon made the Northern Pacific theatre one of particular concern. Whilst the Radicals were loathe to do deals with the Imperials, cooler heads among the Reform Party in London dominated, and by 1875 Britain had concluded a treaty giving her a 100 year lease on Canton and the surrounding province, in return for a guarantee of China's possession of the Maritime Province, and the supply of a half dozen armoured frigates to China.

With Tibet having declared its independence, one additional source of rivalry appeared to have been removed, and with Dzungaria's petty statelets falling either under Kashgarian or Russian domination, a final chapter appeared to be being written on the crisis of the Chinese Empire.

But Korea and Japan were not asleep. Korea's rulers still attempted to keep a closed kingdom, but the Tokugawa Shogunate had finally accepted the necessity of opening up. With British, American, French and Russian ships continually putting into Japanese ports and demanding rights, the daimyo had proved incapable of coping, and it was up to the Shogun to show leadership and establish a central policy, lest the extremities begin to fall to foreign powers.

Grey Wolf
 
Realignments - Part 3

The influx of Confederate exiles into Texas, Mexico and Spain (via Cuba) has been one of those historical issues that arouse great controversy. It cannot be denied that many were well-trained, experienced and with a hunger to make a new living for themselves. At the same time, many, especially of those who fled to Texas, were young, brutal and escaping the imposition of Union justice. The refugee populations altered the political spectrum in some areas, in others they brought industrialisation, entrepreneurial spirit, and in others crime and bigotry.

Did the abolition of slavery affect other countries ? The French Empire, Spain's possessions in the Caribbean, and the Empire of Brazil all still had slavery. Maybe there would have been more of an immediate impact had the USA not become so deeply embroiled in the Klondike ? Maybe the death of the Southern states, their military occupation and the emancipation of the blacks would have taken up most of her attention anyway ?

The split between Britain and France which had occurred with the Radical-Reformist victory in the 1869 British election continued into the mid 1870s. King Ferdinand was ailing by this time, something eating away at him. Power devolved increasingly upon his son, and in early 1876 just as US-Russian tensions reached a climax, Ferdinand died at the age of 65. He was succeeded by his eldest son as King Louis Philippe II, 37 years of age upon his accession.

With tensions between Russia and the USA apparently on the verge of war, and with Prime Minister Sketchley's government giving overt backing to President Sumner, King Louis Philippe II's government found itself in a very difficult position. Heavily involved in Egypt, both from historical association and from the new Suez Canal that Sultan Ismail had inaugurated in 1875, France nevertheless began to swing towards an accommodation with Russia. Prince Robert, Duc de Chartres, was dispatched to Saint Petersburg aboard the French flagship, the ironclad Orleans, there to meet with Tsar Alexander II and sign the secret Protocols of Saint Petersburg.

Grey Wolf
 
I never read all of these, as I get headaches from just starring at the screen, but I've read bist and parts of these. You should make a map of the world at the current date...
 
Aussey said:
I never read all of these, as I get headaches from just starring at the screen, but I've read bist and parts of these. You should make a map of the world at the current date...

I'm not very good with maps and all attempts to create one in the past have just depressed me and led me to go away. I can see on various larger scale maps where the boundaries should be, but when it comes to trying to put this on smaller scale maps I get completely lost. I prefer only to use historical maps where I find them, and then to describe things in detail for others.

I know its not good enough, but we can't all be good at what we need to be

Thanks for reading and commenting

Grey Wolf
 
So, A stronger Russia, a increasing pro-American Britain, and a stronger Western USA. I'm assuming Deseret won't stay independant for long, as it was made of (the majority) unarmed settlers, and they'd need a supplier, which would probably be either Mexico, or Texas. I'm not sure how much iron each produces is so if you could give us the economic status of each?
 
Othniel said:
So, A stronger Russia, a increasing pro-American Britain, and a stronger Western USA. I'm assuming Deseret won't stay independant for long, as it was made of (the majority) unarmed settlers, and they'd need a supplier, which would probably be either Mexico, or Texas. I'm not sure how much iron each produces is so if you could give us the economic status of each?

Thats the problem with a long timeline, bits get lost

Deseret is an autonomous state under Mexican suzerainty. The settlers are mosrt certainly armed, and they provide a couple of high profile and very reliable units for the Mexican army, especially deployed in California and responsible to a degree for peace-keeping during the ACW

The USA owns all of Oregon up to 54' 40" hence its clashing with Russian Alaska over the Klondike. But at the same time, the USA doesn't own California and the New Mexico territories. These remain part of Mexico, and are basically a 3-way split between California, Deseret and Nuevo Mexico South of the latter.

Russia may or may not be stronger, its hard to tell. The mid 1860s war saw it lose Finland to Sweden, Poland to independence and its pre-eminent position in the Rumanian principalities. But under Unkiar Skelessi it has had something of a protectorate role over the Ottoman Empire, and has fought to help it. But in the mid 1860s the Ottomans began to show they could win even when Russia was losing. I would expect this trend to accellerate, but perhaps not be obvious until the crisis point.

I'm afraid I'm a political historian not an economic one, and though it looks a very relevant question I'd have to say I have no idea. I do know that for Mexico, Sonora was mineral rich and in this TL its far more likely to be Mexicans exploiting this than foreigners

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Things in the future = threads to consider

I'm thinking the French won't get to intervene directly in the Klondike crisis as Parisienne Radicals denounce the treaty of princes and force a more liberal constitution on Louis Philippe II. However, the interlude has done its thing and defused the crisis. The USA and Russia eventually come to a settlement over the Alaska-Oregon boundary.

Sumner dies in 1877, his VP runs in 1878 but is beaten by the Reform Party (ex-Democrats) who put up a Union military hero, perhaps Sherman for the presidency.

1878 also sees the death of Pope Pius IX. I am thinking that amidst the manoevring for position, Piedmont-Sardinia will act to break the League of Italy and invade at least the smaller Central Italian states as 'back-up' for claims of Piedmontese leadership.

Radical France is going to be less likely to act than royalist France would have been, so it probably comes down to Austria...

Grey Wolf
 
Part 5 - Italy

Some Notes on Dramatis Personae :-

OTL in 1856 Charles Sumner received a severe beating INSIDE the senate for an anti-slavery speech - the assailant got off somehow, but Sumner took a couple of years to properly recover. In the ATL, this did not happen and instead of dying in 1874, he dies in 1877. It might be said that whilst his health was not broken in the ATL by this incident, the pressures of office, of having led the abolitionist faction ince 1866, been VP candidate in 1868 and elected VP, been the power behind Adams' presidency 1869-1874, and then president in his own right elected 1874, served 1875-77 wore him down.

Emperor Ferdinand of Austria dies in 1875 and in the ATL has been reigning all that time. He is succeeded by his younger brother as Emperor Franz II Karl, who dies in 1878. This date of death coincides with the year of the death of Pope Pius IX. In addition, France in 1876 saw a Radical uprising that has weakened the position of King Louis Philippe II.

The League of Italy, as established in 1848 on 'Neo-Guelphite' principles, is a union of sovereigns under the leadership of the Pope. For all of that time the Pope has been Pius IX, and up to 1875 the Austrian emperor being the same also brought in an additional element of stability. The death of Ferdinand, followed by the Radical uprising in Paris, then the deaths of both Pius IX and Emperor Franz II Karl in 1878 seem to speak of a new age in Italian affairs.

King Vittorio Emanuele II of Piedmont-Sardinia also passes away in 1878, and it is the accession of his son as King Umberto I which really sets the fire to the touchpaper of Italian politics. Aged 34, and seeing his opportunity as the bulwarks of stability seem to be crumbling around him, Umberto begins a series of manoevrings in the League's Roman headquarters, and when these fail to bring him the desired power, he mobilises his armies and strikes into Central Italy.

In Vienna, the new Emperor Franz III Josef, aged 48 and having just succeeded his father, looks upon events askance. The new Pope is attempting to assert his right to dominate the League of Italy, whilst the Bourbon-Two-Sicilies monarch, King Francesco II is rallying forces in opposition to Piedmont-Sardinia. For Francesco, his father's part in the construction of the League, has brought about relative peace in his twin dominions - under a personal union, Sicily and Naples have ruled themselves as independent kingdoms, the over-arcing body of the League preventing any anomalies and difficulties from threatening his position. But now with the League apparently unravelling...

Grey Wolf
 
Slight error, those darn US election dates ! Seems I'm not good counting in 4's

1864
Election of Charles F Adams of the US Radical Party as president

1866
Mid-term elections, return a large number of Northern abolitionists

1868
Re-election of Adams, with Charles Sumner as VP

1869 - 1871
US Civil War

1872
Election of Charles Sumner of the US Radical Party as president

1876
Re-election of Charles Sumner as president

1877
Death of Sumner
Elevation of his VP to the presidency

1880
Defeat of the VP in the November 1880 election
Election of William T Sherman of the US Reform Party as president


Grey Wolf
 
Part 6

The UPCA has been in chaos since the outbreak of the US Civil War in 1869. President Loring has seen the auxiliary US army units shipped off to help the South deal with Union 'aggression'. But the ensuing secession crisis in his own domain was only dealt with by bringing in Yucatecan help. By the end of the US Civil War in 1871 the UPCA is still in turmoil with major centres under UPCA-Yucatecan control. The US ignores it throughout the 1872 election campaign, but after Adams' re-election and inauguration in 1873 the USA turns some of its attention towards the mess that is Central America.

The Republic of the Yucatan has more or less thrown off US protectorate status during the war, but the UPCA remains an embarassment, and President Loring especially so as a backer of the Confederacy. In mid 1873 Loring is assassinated by paid help, and a Union-friendly president installed. US Army forces land in the country and march inland. By 1874 the United Provinces are very much a military appendage of the USA. President Sumner proposes a version of the Oregon Veterans Act for the UPCA, but take-up is less eager. Throughout the rest of the 1870s the UPCA is a minor running sore.

Grey Wolf
 
Hapsburg said:
i havent read the beginning. whats the plotline?

The POD is the death of Alexandrina Victoria as a toddler

But its a bit difficult to go into huge details about all the divergences that come off it.

I guess that's why there are not many readers for it, its all got too long-term and convoluted and I'm not sure I can recap on 50 years of divergences...

I can answer specific questions though

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
The POD is the death of Alexandrina Victoria as a toddler

But its a bit difficult to go into huge details about all the divergences that come off it.

I guess that's why there are not many readers for it, its all got too long-term and convoluted and I'm not sure I can recap on 50 years of divergences...

I can answer specific questions though

Grey Wolf
You need to make a highlight thread. Something that glisps the detail that you went into in the other (9?) threads, posting links back to the original ones for our comprehension. It makes it difficult to read in cases like this.
 
Othniel said:
You need to make a highlight thread. Something that glisps the detail that you went into in the other (9?) threads, posting links back to the original ones for our comprehension. It makes it difficult to read in cases like this.

That is certainly true, and a good idea. Of course it means having to get MY head around 10+ threads (the ACW one is a sub-thread) and then trying to write a year-by-year chronology... Oddly, that will take bloody ages ! I guess it would be easier if I had a printer, but trying to do all this from an onscreen several pages and threads is not going to be quick

Grey Wolf
 
Well for now just find the links, and make a Table of Context. If you choose to...or not to, you can place a summary on each. Brief generalizations and such. At most you get three pages, in the least one page. If you'd like to just tell us the priority each involment plays, and the signifigeince of what happens in each...well go ahead.
 
Othniel said:
Well for now just find the links, and make a Table of Context. If you choose to...or not to, you can place a summary on each. Brief generalizations and such. At most you get three pages, in the least one page. If you'd like to just tell us the priority each involment plays, and the signifigeince of what happens in each...well go ahead.

I'll tell you what, I'll do it in some detail tomorrow if I'm not working. Its the Easter hols, so I may or may not get a nursery nurse call-out, and if I do it could be any time up to Midday.

Thanks for the inspiration !

I could also do country-by-country breakdowns as well. Heck, if I get REALLY interested in it I could upload them to Infinity Wanderers the website and actually get SOME return on the 100 quid I pay a year for it...but that's probably just a bit TOO ambitious !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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