A Philippine Warlord Era Possible?

I was playing around the idea of a Philippines basically ends up becoming recognized by the Americans and others. Probably the treaty of Paris got like some other things happen aside from the Spanish surrendering Manila to President Aguinaldo instead to Dewey. Main POD being the siege of Manila, Aguinaldo gets the city instead of Dewey. So the Revolutionary army goes in to Liberate things or so.

Well now what happens after the revolution? We have to remember that iirc every province is basically ruled by a quasi warlord governor, irrc as like they have their own militias and armies running around under their own personal control. The Revolutionary "Army" so to speak outside the Central government's control is just armies under them. Either from their pocket, or more likely from their "taxes" which they collect from the people in their control or probably some war loot.

Considering that, would it be possible that the country just "fails" to say have the central government get effective on basically areas outside Manila and probably some areas they directly control? Basically a sort of patch of warlords, dynasties, and fiefdom political families ruling the place in the local to Provincial level outside the central government. To the point where basically Aguinaldo or whoever is in charge is basically like "Chiang" or the "Shogun" who needs to be strong enough to keep them in line?

@Namayan @Gillan1220 and other fellow filipinos, and other people who may have a say or idea, any thoughts?
 
Close to happening because Negros Island declared itself an independent republic while Sulu could do the same thing. Maybe Cebu-Bohol becomes its own union, eventually absorbing some islands in the Visayas. What result we would have is a divided Philippines.
 
Close to happening because Negros Island declared itself an independent republic while Sulu could do the same thing. Maybe Cebu-Bohol becomes its own union, eventually absorbing some islands in the Visayas. What result we would have is a divided Philippines.
oh so it is possible that say we have a "government" in Manila probably under Aguinaldo who is like barking orders while Governors and others are just ignoring them only paying lip service that he's the president. just like Warlord China?

I am making an election game where like the Philippines is like divided into cliques of powerbases, how do you think probably different provinces & regions will develop? Would China be a good example on it?
 
oh so it is possible that say we have a "government" in Manila probably under Aguinaldo who is like barking orders while Governors and others are just ignoring them only paying lip service that he's the president. just like Warlord China?

I am making an election game where like the Philippines is like divided into cliques of powerbases, how do you think probably different provinces & regions will develop? Would China be a good example on it?
Yeah, it's possible that's the case.
 
Economic Development would be in favor of the richest areas like Manila Bay due to geography and infrastructure. The only rail back then was Dagupan to Manila railway. Panay Railway which had capital coming from USA in 1906 would have to find ways to finance railroad in Panay, Negros and Cebu.

No US money, less human development for everyone. Public education and healthcare was jumpstarted by USA in otl. Concentration of resources in richer cliques. The richer cliques would become richer than otl with limited responsibility to poorer cliques.
Exports may vary. In Otl, Philippines was a US colony. US can technically redirect all trade to the USA. In ATL Independent Philippines, Sugar producing provinces have an option to export to other countries. US in otl was very much pro sugar Quota. If Philippines joins the Boxer rebellion, can extract a bit of money and dump a lot of exports with no quota. Britain can also take up most of the trade since Philippines was already part of the informal empire. US in OTL took that away British dominance in Philippine trade due to being a US colony.

Sultanates are defacto independent. In otl it was US who pacified and conquered them. Development wise the Sultanates are going to be worse in human development than otl. It was US who financed and brought public education. How bad, Christian Philippines had like 30% literacy for men and 10% for women 1903 US census. The Moros are even worse. And Sultans will not change their ways and increase human development and economic infra. I doubt anyone would conquer them not until Moro piracy becomes a problem again. Limited friction with Christian Filipinos due to a smaller migrant population.

Even places like Baguio wont develop like OTL since it was also the US who plowed to the Cordilleras bringing not only their army but infrastructure. A lot of the areas with indigenous tribes will not develop like OTL.

Development wise, both human and economic, compared to OTL, your ATL Philippines would have greater inequalities with places richer than OTL and places poorer than OTL due to the lack of centralized say(like education and other projects wont be standardized) and lack of US financing and involvement. But concentration of resources means also more money for other things like the military. e.g. Manila Bay clique or Sugar entrepots like Iloilo or Bacolod would have a lot more money to finance more infra or a larger military without having to finance places not part of their cliques. The poorer areas would be like Samar, Leyte that would be stuck in Spanish colonial era development. While the Cordilleras and Mindanao would be stuck in non European tech development similar to the levels of the Dayaks in Borneo.
 
Economic Development would be in favor of the richest areas like Manila Bay due to geography and infrastructure. The only rail back then was Dagupan to Manila railway. Panay Railway which had capital coming from USA in 1906 would have to find ways to finance railroad in Panay, Negros and Cebu.

No US money, less human development for everyone. Public education and healthcare was jumpstarted by USA in otl. Concentration of resources in richer cliques. The richer cliques would become richer than otl with limited responsibility to poorer cliques.
Exports may vary. In Otl, Philippines was a US colony. US can technically redirect all trade to the USA. In ATL Independent Philippines, Sugar producing provinces have an option to export to other countries. US in otl was very much pro sugar Quota. If Philippines joins the Boxer rebellion, can extract a bit of money and dump a lot of exports with no quota. Britain can also take up most of the trade since Philippines was already part of the informal empire. US in OTL took that away British dominance in Philippine trade due to being a US colony.

Sultanates are defacto independent. In otl it was US who pacified and conquered them. Development wise the Sultanates are going to be worse in human development than otl. It was US who financed and brought public education. How bad, Christian Philippines had like 30% literacy for men and 10% for women 1903 US census. The Moros are even worse. And Sultans will not change their ways and increase human development and economic infra. I doubt anyone would conquer them not until Moro piracy becomes a problem again. Limited friction with Christian Filipinos due to a smaller migrant population.

Even places like Baguio wont develop like OTL since it was also the US who plowed to the Cordilleras bringing not only their army but infrastructure. A lot of the areas with indigenous tribes will not develop like OTL.

Development wise, both human and economic, compared to OTL, your ATL Philippines would have greater inequalities with places richer than OTL and places poorer than OTL due to the lack of centralized say(like education and other projects wont be standardized) and lack of US financing and involvement. But concentration of resources means also more money for other things like the military. e.g. Manila Bay clique or Sugar entrepots like Iloilo or Bacolod would have a lot more money to finance more infra or a larger military without having to finance places not part of their cliques. The poorer areas would be like Samar, Leyte that would be stuck in Spanish colonial era development. While the Cordilleras and Mindanao would be stuck in non European tech development similar to the levels of the Dayaks in Borneo.
How likely would be foreign influences do?

USA,and others?

Could the sugar industry and agriculture also be jumpstarted? Just like the Americans did in colonial era? The Philippines american war really disrupted things so I was wondering if it could. As there will be no war
 
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How likely would be foreign influences do?

USA,and others?
US would have influence after helping Philippines becoming independent. But British businesses are already well established.
The sugar industry in Negros was started by the British. The rail is owned by the British.

So I dont know how the ownership will pass around. Will the British influence to local politics and keep owning what they own and dominate the market they already have or locals forcing it to sell to the principalia.

Could the sugar industry and agriculture also be jumpstarted? Just like the Americans did in colonial era? The Philippines american war really disrupted things so I was wondering if it could. As there will be no war
Sugar industry already exists. Just a question who are you going to sell to. Before Spain directed where Spain wants it.

Agriculture production will not be disrupted. Less deaths of draft animals and carabaos. The export products of the Philippines have not really change, sugar, tobacco, abaca, coconuts.

1918 Census put Abaca(manila rope/manila paper) number exports(around 50% of Philippine exports). Just so you know what you can expect on the world market. Albay is the number one producer followed by Leyte. Bicol and Eastern Visayas dominates the production. Albay produces around 86 million kilos out of 300 million kilos for the whole Philippines.

Abaca is monopolized by the Philippines at that time while Sugar is dominated by another country. Although 1918 Census is decades away from 1898, 1903 Census includes already the effects of the Philippine American war, so production is lower.

In terms of 1918 Census. Luzon produces around 7 million tons of coconut oil followed by Visayas around 6 million tons of oil. Sugar producers are Pampanga 1 million tons in 1918 followed by Negros occidental 900k tons.

In terms of dollar amount in exports, Abaca around $40M, $18m for coconut oil, $12m for sugar, $7m for tobacco.

In rice, Philippines produce 29 million cavans of rice of which Pangasinan produced 13 million cavans of rice in 1918. In Corn, 8 million cavans of corn by the Philippines of which 5 million is from Cebu.

If comparing with Cuba, Cuba had around 632,000 acres sugar cultivation while Philippines around 71,000 hectares or 175,000 acres. Cuba's number one export is Sugar of around $38m in 1899, followed by tobacco $12m, Cigars $12m.

The Cholera in 1902 would depend if someone in Hong Kong will bring it like OTL. But since there was no war going around, soldiers were going to and from Manila including American soldiers who brought the cholera with their bodies.
 
US would have influence after helping Philippines becoming independent. But British businesses are already well established.
The sugar industry in Negros was started by the British. The rail is owned by the British.

So I dont know how the ownership will pass around. Will the British influence to local politics and keep owning what they own and dominate the market they already have or locals forcing it to sell to the principalia.
What do you think of say an "Open Door Policy" being say promoted by America and co. To open up the country?

Maybe Coule Japan, Germany, France, The Dutch and maybe even some remaining Spanish influence probably the Spanish Business interests come in aside from the mostly British ones and soon American & British?


Sugar industry already exists. Just a question who are you going to sell to. Before Spain directed where Spain wants it.
In ATL Independent Philippines, Sugar producing provinces have an option to export to other countries. US in otl was very much pro sugar Quota.
Was the Sugar Quota beneficial otl to the Sugar Industry?

Also could we also have our ITTLs Sugar Quota pushed by the Sugar Provinces? The US and Sugar Barons pushing for it? Maybe Cuba fails to say recover their industry to be up an running? So we'll have the Pro US provinces export their sugar freely tariff free within the quota system?

Also, could we maybe improve the Sugar industry than OTL? Maybe say break even maybe a couple million tons?
Sugar producers are Pampanga 1 million tons in 1918 followed by Negros occidental 900k tons.
Where did you get the statistics? Mine said like only 700k tons whole country? is that exports or production?
 
What do you think of say an "Open Door Policy" being say promoted by America and co. To open up the country?

Maybe Coule Japan, Germany, France, The Dutch and maybe even some remaining Spanish influence probably the Spanish Business interests come in aside from the mostly British ones and soon American & British?
That would depend on policy makers. Aguinaldo as president dont know these things.

Policy will most likely be who is in power.

Was the Sugar Quota beneficial otl to the Sugar Industry?

Also could we also have our ITTLs Sugar Quota pushed by the Sugar Provinces? The US and Sugar Barons pushing for it? Maybe Cuba fails to say recover their industry to be up an running? So we'll have the Pro US provinces export their sugar freely tariff free within the quota system?

Also, could we maybe improve the Sugar industry than OTL? Maybe say break even maybe a couple million tons?
Cuba has advantage of being near the US. the other large consumer market is China.

Philippines has more options than Sugar though.

Wood both logs, lumber can be an export product.

Expanding coconut exports.

Including Abaca these could potentially surpass or equal sugar exports

Where did you get the statistics? Mine said like only 700k tons whole country? is that exports or production?
You are most likely correct if it is processed sugar. I have mine in tons sugar cane.

Data came US Census 1918 Philippines
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Cuba has advantage of being near the US. the other large consumer market is China.

Philippines has more options than Sugar though.

Wood both logs, lumber can be an export product.

Expanding coconut exports.

Including Abaca these could potentially surpass or equal sugar exports
Could Rubber and coffee be good also? Also bananas and other fruits and commodities? Especially rubber as they really had like prices going on sky high till the invention of synthetic rubber?

What about mining though? Basically Cordillera and Mindanao has some minerals, could a clique say take control and begin extracting them by leasing it to some company or themselves or do we really need smth to like say put it to extraction mode?
 
Could Rubber and coffee be good also? Also bananas and other fruits and commodities? Especially rubber as they really had like prices going on sky high till the invention of synthetic rubber?
Coffee market consumption is in Europe. Nor Philippines beating the proximity and production of Brazil by this time. China isnt a large coffee consumer.

Rubber has the potential to supplement exports. But need the capital and seedlings. Only Mindanao has the free land for that.Maybe get 1/4 of Malayas rubber exports by 1919. Malaysia has the advantage of beung a British colony and British having the seedlings.

It would still problem of manpower and why would cliques transfer money in Mindanao when they can just invest more in Sugar in Negros or Pampanga or Abaca in leyte and samar

What about mining though? Basically Cordillera and Mindanao has some minerals, could a clique say take control and begin extracting them by leasing it to some company or themselves or do we really need smth to like say put it to extraction mode?

significant Mindanao minerals are unknown at this time except maybe in Siargao. Nor would be there enough manpower to mine Mindanao or cliques would transfer their population to an unpopulated area due to unknowns. We got the hindsight of Mindanao minerals.

Santa ines and Bulacan mines already exist.

Iron ore could be for exports to Japan. not unless some clique setup ironworks and sells pig iron.

Everbody knew there was gold in Cordilleras. No one knew the location of mines at this point. The US soldiers intermarried with the Ibaloi, volunteeres to be fight in tribal wars leading to the mines. The Igorots wont give the location of the mines not unless some of the Filipinos become part of the tribe.
 
Coffee market consumption is in Europe. Nor Philippines beating the proximity and production of Brazil by this time. China isnt a large coffee consumer.

Rubber has the potential to supplement exports. But need the capital and seedlings. Only Mindanao has the free land for that.Maybe get 1/4 of Malayas rubber exports by 1919. Malaysia has the advantage of beung a British colony and British having the seedlings.

It would still problem of manpower and why would cliques transfer money in Mindanao when they can just invest more in Sugar in Negros or Pampanga or Abaca in leyte and samar
Would Mindanao be the only place that is good on rubber that could have it grow? Or could the cliques say cultivate it in their provinces in Visayas and Luzon
 
Would Mindanao be the only place that is good on rubber that could have it grow? Or could the cliques say cultivate it in their provinces in Visayas and Luzon
You could but you are going to replace essential crops like most of the rice in Pangasinan, and corn in Cebu.

Or export crops in other provinces like Abaca, Sugar and coconut oil. Or tobacco or cigars.

Besides, No one in the right mind will replace their respective exports or essential crops in 1898. Those are try and tested products. Especially if a bunch of principalia or landed elite rely on those crops for money.

Probably in less than productive areas. I dont know where that will be with enough land except certain places in Mindanao that other products are not well established yet.

Even if a patch of land is being established in Luzon or Visayas, the rich will most likely grow what they know. Rubber is an unknown tree for Filipinos in 1898.
 
You could but you are going to replace essential crops like most of the rice in Pangasinan, and corn in Cebu.

Or export crops in other provinces like Abaca, Sugar and coconut oil. Or tobacco or cigars.

Besides, No one in the right mind will replace their respective exports or essential crops in 1898. Those are try and tested products. Especially if a bunch of principalia or landed elite rely on those crops for money.

Probably in less than productive areas. I dont know where that will be with enough land except certain places in Mindanao that other products are not well established yet.

Even if a patch of land is being established in Luzon or Visayas, the rich will most likely grow what they know. Rubber is an unknown tree for Filipinos in 1898.
I was wondering where would say the demand for such products will go? Maybe you have say sources where Philippine exports go, I only have like for sugar, Basically alot of them are either going to Europe (Mostly Britain) China Hongkong/Japan or the USA. Where would Coconuts, Abaca, Tobacco, go? Probably considering for trade deals
 
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