A peacefull world. America in 1940s.

We assume that Hitler is dead in the great war,or that someone have shot to him in early 20s.
Weimer Republic is survived,and the Germany is still a democracy.
Mussolini is quiet in his new,little empire,Stalin is undertook to kill his own comrades,and in Japan the moderates are prevailed.
So September 1 1939 an December 7,1941 are days like others,without story.
In a world without WW-II how are the United States in 40s and early 50s?
FDR run for President in 1940,or leave?
Republicans backs in White House?
How is the US pop culture without the war?
In 40s and early 50s America is more elitist that in OTL? (exemple,no GI bill)
The tecnology development is more slow?
 
The New Deal will get the US out of the Depression by the early 1940's (probably '42 like WW2 did).

That's all I got. Now burn me with magma.
 
In OTL FDR started to try to balance the budget in 38, and kind of rekindled the depression.

Without the International situation I do not see him running for a 3rd term.

I kind of think that a Republican would have won in 1940, carried on conventional approaches to public finances and further deepened the recession.

I see someone like Henry Wallace winning as a Dem in 1944 and trying to do the New Deal properly.


Meanwhile Europe, following orthodox financia approaches is in a pretty deep depresssion.

Some ultra'sfrom right or left will likely take advantage somewhere in Europe
 
I'm not sure I'd call front populaire an othodoxial financial approch.

Didn't they end up getting tossed out of office?

Anyway, the 1938 depression was tied into a captital flight from Europe, and the Fed's decision to raise reserve requirements, freezing lending. With a more peaceful Europe, it's less likely to happen.
 
Didn't they end up getting tossed out of office?

Anyway, the 1938 depression was tied into a captital flight from Europe, and the Fed's decision to raise reserve requirements, freezing lending. With a more peaceful Europe, it's less likely to happen.

Yes, they did, but a lot of the reforms stayed. However, I thought we were speaking about the 1932 depression, not the 38 one.
 
The British had pulled themselves out of the depression using ortodox finances by 37, so I'm not sure where this failure comes from? In this TL, with less pressure on military spending, the UK would probably have done even better.
 
We assume that Hitler is dead in the great war,or that someone have shot to him in early 20s.
Weimer Republic is survived,and the Germany is still a democracy.
Mussolini is quiet in his new,little empire,Stalin is undertook to kill his own comrades,and in Japan the moderates are prevailed.
So September 1 1939 an December 7,1941 are days like others,without story.
In a world without WW-II how are the United States in 40s and early 50s?
FDR run for President in 1940,or leave?
Republicans backs in White House?
How is the US pop culture without the war?
In 40s and early 50s America is more elitist that in OTL? (exemple,no GI bill)
The tecnology development is more slow?

The most technologically progressive decade of the twentieth century was probably the 1930s. So no, I don't think the absence of WW2 will slow technology much.
 
The most technologically progressive decade of the twentieth century was probably the 1930s. So no, I don't think the absence of WW2 will slow technology much.

I am not sure this something I agree with. There were several pieces of technology that were developed in large part because of the war, even if the War was not in and of itself responsible for their developments... Off the top of my head, here is a list:

1. Radar. Without radar, civil air transportation would have remained a small scale enterprise.

2. programmable computers. Without having to break Enigma, computer development might have taken 10 or years longer, particularly without the need to miniturize them to fit on number 3...

3. Rocketry. While Robert Goddard was important, it was the Germans who really brought rockets to the World's attention via the V2.

4. Nuclear Power. Remember, the Manhattan project was an attempt to get the Bomb before the Nazis. The Nazis failed, the Americans succeeded because they had collected what is perhaps the most significant collection of scientists ever to work on that one problem.


And of course without those key developments, its all butterflies to how things develop from there.


--
Bill
 
By 1940 the US birth rate was below 1.5 [2.1 = ZPG] and if the downturn of 1938 is not stopped by the 1939~40 War Spending it will probably continue below replacement till the Depression does end. 1945~46 ?????????????
late 40's -Fifties is the years of the Baby Bust teenagers


No War Brides. and no Baby Boom In the 40's , By the early 50's whe have climbed back to the Two point Somethings, but not near the 3~5 of OTLs post war.

Without a war torn Europe, the US is not the sole Ecomonic power in a Post War world.
There were no Rosie the Riveters, There will be no Stories to tell the Daughters about How the Women did all the Male jobs for Years.
So No Daughters of the Baby Boom and a Womens Movement in the 70's.
While the Economy recovers, without the post War Boom, Men don't make enuff to allow the OTL Father Knows Best/June Cleaver All the women stay Home, as OTL.
The women slowly entering the Workplace trend of the 1920's, will resume.

TV's will be expensive, While the Olympics of 1940 & 1944 will be televised, I expect only the Rich and patrons of Sport Bars will be able to see them.
This will help boost the popularity of Sport Bars, and by 1948 it will seem as it there are more of them than Old Fashioned ones.
Whe may see some kind of Projection TV developed by the late 40's and early 50's.

oops Rain Stopped :) Suns out :cool: Got to get back to work :( more later
 
And of course without those key developments, its all butterflies to how things develop from there.

On the other hand, milliosn of people whose creativity was nsuffed out, both when they were killed and by living in totalitarian states or occupied territories are still around; the world is richer and more developed, etc.
 
People will probably figure out that the New Deal was a Raw Deal as the Depression continues to linger. Government control of manufacturing and price setting continues. It slowly dawns on the electorate that Roosevelt didn't have a good idea in his agenda and everything he was done has hampered economic recovery. His attempt at a third term is soundly defeated.

Other nations continue their recovery while the United States doesn't start any marked upswing until the late 1940s, after much of FDR's programs have been dismantled.
 
The US was well on the road to recovery before the 1938 recession kicked in, and that's aborted.

America's economic output had already surpassed 1929 levels, of course, although unemployment remained stubbornly high. (Although under 10%, which for the 1930s is still very good).

So while people might blame the New Dela, they are wrong to do so, and even more wrong to pine for the laissez faire days of the 1920s.
 
I am not sure this something I agree with. There were several pieces of technology that were developed in large part because of the war, even if the War was not in and of itself responsible for their developments... Off the top of my head, here is a list:

1. Radar. Without radar, civil air transportation would have remained a small scale enterprise.

2. programmable computers. Without having to break Enigma, computer development might have taken 10 or years longer, particularly without the need to miniturize them to fit on number 3...

3. Rocketry. While Robert Goddard was important, it was the Germans who really brought rockets to the World's attention via the V2.

4. Nuclear Power. Remember, the Manhattan project was an attempt to get the Bomb before the Nazis. The Nazis failed, the Americans succeeded because they had collected what is perhaps the most significant collection of scientists ever to work on that one problem.


And of course without those key developments, its all butterflies to how things develop from there.


--
Bill

You said it yourself - the War was not, in and of itself, responsible for those technologies. More importantly, I'm not sure how key three of those developments were, at least in the sense of boosting overall technological growth. For the fourth, consider Konrad Zuse.
 
Some considerations.
first:
This is from an interview to New York time journalist Ralph Blumenthal author of "Stork Club: America's Most Famous Nightspot and the Lost World of Cafe Society".
"You have to remember that the appetite of the public was for glamour, and the Stork Club was much more in tenor with its time in terms of what the people dreamed about and wished for and aspired to than these so-called democratic clubs. That was the image the country had before it, right or wrong. It filled a need, and it was that dream of glamour that drove places like the Stork Club to the heights they attained. This was through the Depression and World War II, when people needed something to dream about. As I said in the book, the Stork Club survived the Depression, survived World War II, and was finally brought down by prosperity".

"The privileged classes of society who made up the core of the Stork Club's clientele was shifting too. Society didn't have the same class distinctions as it had before. A great democratization had taken place after the Second World War, so the Club sort of lost the patronage of these affluent, aristocratic types".
And said rightly DuQuesense:
TV's will be expensive, While the Olympics of 1940 & 1944 will be televised, I expect only the Rich and patrons of Sport Bars will be able to see them.
So without WW-II The pop culture in United States in late 40s,50s and maybe 60s ,is very different that in OTL,
more sophisticated-upper class oriented ?

Second:

No War Brides. and no Baby Boom In the 40's
But what if in late 50s-early 60s the anticonceptional pill arrives?
Nothing "baby boom" never?
And with what consequences?

Third:
Without Military-industrial complex in 50s,the life of Americans is less conformist (and obviously a bit less consumerist).
So without suburbia conformism and consumerism (and with nothing "baby boom" and Vietnam war) we could have a very different 60s?
 
Started raining again :rolleyes:

In the 20's~30's men rode 28" Bikes [not like todays 27's which are simply a 27" tire on a 26 inch frame] While women rode 26" Bikes.
During the War while lots of the men were at war, their Parents gave the bikes to the Scrap drives.
no war means the Bike makers continue with the 28"er. OTL post war the bike makers announced that they were postponing manufacturing the 28 till the post war scarities were over.
This is OK as with no War whe have no GI Bill Home Loans. No Lewitttown Suburbs.
Suburbs are built but like all pre war Suburbs they are along the Rail lines [Railroad companies financed a lot of these]

With More urban population, there is no post war demand for cars from the returning GI's [why the bike makers never did start remaking the 28"er].
The distinction between Town Cars and Touring Cars continues. As does a Niche Market for Quiet Elegant Steam and Electric Cars.

With the Urban centres remaining strong so do the trolley companies, While America remains the most Automobiled Nation, It remains possible to survive without one.

During the 30's the battle between Steam and Diesel power heated up in the Railroad industry.
In 1941 the two biggest Locomotive Manufacturers introduced their latest steam Locomotives, Designed for the Transcontinental Market, and Designed to compete with the new Airlines.
The first were to be delivered in 1942, and the Rail Companies were planning Massive upgrade to the rails to handle these 120~150 MPH super Locomotives.
OTL after Dec 7th these orders were canceled, Post war the Diesel took over even for passenger trains and steam died.
ITTL The deliveries will be made as will the Rail Upgrades, Giving Passenger Trains a chance to compete with the Airlines.

The Competition will be a lot more possible, as the building of the American Autobahn System will probably be slower and less Extensive.
Perhaps plans in the 60's to [just] Dual Lane [divided Highway] the existing US Highway System that was built in the 30's by the New Deal.

Also OTL It was the War and the need for large Planes and very powerful Engines for The Bombers, and the large long Runways built for these bombers all around the world that doomed the China Clipper.
However ITTL land based Passengers Planes Have to compete with Zeppelins [ITTL no Ban on Helium Sales] China Clippers, and High Speed Trains, without the Boost of WW2 developments.

In the late 40's and early 50's the latest wave of Urban Immigrants began arriving in Americas large cities.
As the Immigration Law had closed America off from Over sea Rural populations, this wave came from Americas Rural population.
I don't see anything ITTL that will stop the large Black Migration from the Rural South to the Large Cities.
However while ML King and Malcolm X Will be working for Civil Rites, they will have several problems they didn't have OTL.

No Black Veterans, and no Blacks who worked during the War, but got fired, when the White boys came home [Seniority].
Not Sure - but my guess is this leads to less politically active Black Class.

Instead of OTL's Baby Boom - born & Grew up in post war Era of Prosperity - Liberal Young People, whose Generation is 75~100 % larger than their parents,
they will have to work With TTL's Baby Bust. [1930 ~1945] They were born & grew up during the worse depression in History. only 70~75% as large as their parents generation, they are Socially and Economically conservative.
They are not interested in Sit ins, or Marching for Social Justice. They want to be let in Peace to get a Job and start their Families.

I'm also wondering about the -Yellow Peril- ITTL. I am kind of assuming no post 1935 war with China. I do this as there seems to be no Embargo, leading to a Pacific War.
This mean Japan is a powerful Regional power, And a lot of fear of the Yellow Peril in the US.
1/3 of Hawaii's population is Japanese, 3% of California's is Asian, With no War and relocation, and No war time Boom, I see these figures staying about the same for the next couple decades.
With no War Hawaii and Alaska remain undeveloped, Probably don't become states till the late 70's.

As The Philippines got their independence peacefully in 1945, Philipino Immigration slowed as subject to the Asian exclusion Act.
During the 50's~60's Porto Rico is the main Hispanic Group influence in the US.
 
Started raining again :rolleyes:

With More urban population, there is no post war demand for cars from the returning GI's [why the bike makers never did start remaking the 28"er].
The distinction between Town Cars and Touring Cars continues. As does a Niche Market for Quiet Elegant Steam and Electric Cars.
But the eletric car die after the WW-I.
Also OTL It was the War and the need for large Planes and very powerful Engines for The Bombers, and the large long Runways built for these bombers all around the world that doomed the China Clipper.
However ITTL land based Passengers Planes Have to compete with Zeppelins [ITTL no Ban on Helium Sales] China Clippers, and High Speed Trains, without the Boost of WW2 developments.
About the airship this is an interesting American advertising from 1940:

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