A Peaceful Transition into Independence, The Republic of Congo minus the Congo Crisis

The Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa's largest Country. Its poor, corrupt, government is oppressive, bad-human rights, rebels running a muck in the east being supported by neighboring countries, host to the largest UN Peace Keeping Force on Earth. The country is in a very very bad spot, and it would take a miracle for it to get back on track.

But in order to understand this problem, we have to go back, all the way to the year 1960, when the Congo Crisis happened.

The Congo Crisis happened almost immediately after Belgium gave independence to the new Republic of Congo. A new government was set up, a parliament was established, Prime Minister chosen and a President elected. It was going all fine and dandy, until two provinces wanted out.

Katanga and South Kasai proclaimed they would secede from the Congo, and, backed by Belgium, started a civil war.

Now this would not be a problem, until the USSR got involved supporting one side, and Belgium sent troops to support Katanga. This Cold War Crisis helped pave the way to the rise of Joseph-Désiré Mobutu, the dictator who basically made Congo the backwater nation it is today.

But what if Katanga and South Kasai never tried to secede? What if the Congo Crisis never happened? Would the DRC be stable like its neighbors in Botswana and South Africa? Would it be economically successful? Or would something else lead the country to ruin?
 
It was never all fine and dandy.

Botswana, not the Congo, is the anomaly. Coups and one-party states were the norm throughout Africa in the sixties and the Congo had more inherent problems than most places. If the provinces don't try to secede, Tshombe and Kalonji are likely to join in plots against Lumumba anyway. Lumumba was also rapidly at odds with the president (Kasavubu) and the army was mutinous from the start.

The way the crisis unfolded was unpredictable with so many players, both internal and from outside, acting in what they saw as their own interests. There are plenty of plausible, alternative outcomes, but a peaceful, uneventful transition to order and democracy is among the least likely.
 
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