A Pandemic Happens In Southeast Asia

It all began with one citizen in India. The bloody cough, the ruptured vessels in the eyes. Within a day this person was dead. But not before it spread to the members of the person's family. Within a week, the city of Bombay is under quarantine as most of the city falls underneath the sickness spell. Even more alarming, as news agencies began reporting, the sickness made its appearance in other parts of India, and in a month, reports began to appear of the same sickness appearing in the surrounding countries, including Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal, and a case in Southeast China. In order to protect itself, countries begin sealing their borders. Korea attempts to do so, but is unable to prevent its spread. Japan, an island nation that has enforced an isolationist policy once in its past, is more successful, and Russia uses its military might to protect itself. A vaccine is eventually created, but it takes six months to do so. In that time, India's population is reduced by 3/4. A country that once boasted a population of over a billion now has a population of 250 million. Other countries affected by the sickness have up to half of their population missing. China is now down to a population of 500 million. The world reels as it recovers from one of its worse pandemics in history.

In this scenario, what is the impact on the global stage, and how long will it take to recover from the loss of possibly a billion of the world's citizens, lost in just one region of the world?
 
It all began with one citizen in India. The bloody cough, the ruptured vessels in the eyes. Within a day this person was dead. But not before it spread to the members of the person's family. Within a week, the city of Bombay is under quarantine as most of the city falls underneath the sickness spell. Even more alarming, as news agencies began reporting, the sickness made its appearance in other parts of India, and in a month, reports began to appear of the same sickness appearing in the surrounding countries, including Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal, and a case in Southeast China. In order to protect itself, countries begin sealing their borders. Korea attempts to do so, but is unable to prevent its spread. Japan, an island nation that has enforced an isolationist policy once in its past, is more successful, and Russia uses its military might to protect itself. A vaccine is eventually created, but it takes six months to do so. In that time, India's population is reduced by 3/4. A country that once boasted a population of over a billion now has a population of 250 million. Other countries affected by the sickness have up to half of their population missing. China is now down to a population of 500 million. The world reels as it recovers from one of its worse pandemics in history.

In this scenario, what is the impact on the global stage, and how long will it take to recover from the loss of possibly a billion of the world's citizens, lost in just one region of the world?

There are nonstop flights from Mumbai to places all over the world. The spread follows not distance by mileage, but airline routes. It hits hard in the UAE and Abu Dhabi. It spreads into Europe via Frankfurt, London, Paris and Amsterdam. It spreads into Asia via Tokyo, Singapore, Bangkok, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Beijing and Hong Kong. It gets into North America via Toronto and Newark. From these points alone, it will spread all over the planet. It will reach Newark long before it reaches remote villages in India. Something this fatal, with just enough of an asymptomatic but contagious period to allow it to spread, is a global disaster. The world population is reduced by 3/4, not just India's. It is an economic and human catastrophe from which it takes decades to recover. Asset prices plunge as there is a massive surplus in real estate and commodities because reducing demand by 75% tends to do that.
 
usually such diseases burn out quickly though as they also mutate rapidly. not saying it wouldn't be ugly though.
3 day incubation period - give a couple days of being sick, and yes this could spread rapidly.
 

Anchises

Banned
There are nonstop flights from Mumbai to places all over the world. The spread follows not distance by mileage, but airline routes. It hits hard in the UAE and Abu Dhabi. It spreads into Europe via Frankfurt, London, Paris and Amsterdam. It spreads into Asia via Tokyo, Singapore, Bangkok, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur, Beijing and Hong Kong. It gets into North America via Toronto and Newark. From these points alone, it will spread all over the planet. It will reach Newark long before it reaches remote villages in India. Something this fatal, with just enough of an asymptomatic but contagious period to allow it to spread, is a global disaster. The world population is reduced by 3/4, not just India's. It is an economic and human catastrophe from which it takes decades to recover. Asset prices plunge as there is a massive surplus in real estate and commodities because reducing demand by 75% tends to do that.

Depending on when exactly the plague hits there is a BIG chance of nuclear escalation.

I am out of my depth here so feel free to correct me but this Pandemic SCREAMS highly advanced Biological weapon.

And with a global death rate somwhere between 50-75% most countries are going to collapse.

At the "high point" of the Pandemic most governments are going to be reduced to a few paranoid bureaucrats in a vault connected with whatever is left of the military (time to explore the depths of the chain of Presidential succession).

This would be a fertile ground for rumors/errors in judgement/snap decisions. This could be ranging from "country X manufactured the virus" too "we have to bom them to stop the stream of (infected?) refugees".
 
As others have specified, this isn't a local plague but the beginning of The End. Probably hastened by human action (war, nuclear exchange, etc.).
 
Mind you, a bloody cough as an initial symptom would be quite alarming to health services, so the panic factor alone might be enough to slow the spread of the pathogen.
 
Depending on when exactly the plague hits there is a BIG chance of nuclear escalation.

I am out of my depth here so feel free to correct me but this Pandemic SCREAMS highly advanced Biological weapon.

And with a global death rate somwhere between 50-75% most countries are going to collapse.

At the "high point" of the Pandemic most governments are going to be reduced to a few paranoid bureaucrats in a vault connected with whatever is left of the military (time to explore the depths of the chain of Presidential succession).

This would be a fertile ground for rumors/errors in judgement/snap decisions. This could be ranging from "country X manufactured the virus" too "we have to bom them to stop the stream of (infected?) refugees".
much agree, if, and if it is natural then I would be amazed, but if it isn't, all options become possible. If it is natural, yikes nature doesn't like us.
 
I am operating under the idea it is a natural illness.

It suggests a more robust version of the Ebola virus. But it does seem like nature doesn't work that way thank goodness. The more lethal the disease the less communicable it is a rough rule of thumb. A good example is comparing Rabies to the common cold. Evolution through natural selection has established some constraints on the virulency of diseases and has built up the resistance of animals to them. Even new viral mutations aren't too much different from previous strains. Entire animal species are not rendered extinct by disease alone. As others on this thread have posted the sudden appearance and lethality of your described outbreak would strongly indicate the release of a bioweapon.

As to the social effects of the premised global pandemic it would be worst than Europe's Black Death and would possibly be exacerbated by war. In surviving countries or regions with significant populations I would guess there would be some heavy-handed martial law type regimes for some time and in other areas banditry. It might be one or two generations before people start smiling again.
 
I think if close to 2 billion people quickly died throughout Asia there would be a huge influx from neighboring countries. Why live in a slum or refugee camp when there's miles of vacant land and the possessions of 2 billion people there for the taking.

I think it would take most of the heat out of the Middle East as there would be a glut of oil as well as a depopulation of guest workers, however export economies like Australia would take a huge hit with the loss of major export markets.
 
75% lethality in India and 50% in the PRC strike me as odd.

I am operating under the idea it is a natural illness.
You might be, but not everyone will assume so, especially seeing as you've basically very likely wiped out the people who can tell the remnants of those in charge that what appears to be a bioweapon is a natural disease that mimics a bioweapon by odd chance. Chances are pretty high that somebody decides it was a bioweapon and starts poppping off nukes.


Even without those, it's a TEOTWAWKI scenario. Do we still award Vlads for those?
 
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