A Palin what if.

10th October 2008:
Sarah Palin was looking in the camera like a scared bunny. She just heard that senator McCain was shot by a radical left wing activist. A small tear formed and followed the line of her cheek. Then another and then some more, but she overcame it and looking up in the camera she said slowly, fighting back more tears: "I always be there for America". The nation melted.

4th November 2008:
John King fumbled with his papers, unbelieving and disbelieving. But here it stood in black and white. First Fox news had announced it and he had laughed it away. But now... The camera light came on, he heard his own voice say:"Ladies and gentlemen it is my privilege to announce that with a 98% certainty Sarah Palin is elected the first female president of the USA"

(PS English is my second Language so there may be some syntax & grammar errors. I'm also new to this forum and not sure if this is what your site is about. If the response is good, I will follow up on this little scenario :))
 
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20th June 2009: U.S. President Sarah Palin answered the last question on the White House press conference and was tired of it. All those stupid reporters. What was the big deal anyway? Employing an additional 90,000 soldiers in Afghanistan over a period of six months wouldn't escalate the conflict but would end it once and for all. And she thought "I be damned to let those Taliban's win this."

12th December 2009: What the hell is she thinking? Admiral Mike Mullen, Staff Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, asked himself. You couldn't enter Pakistan with tanks, not even to follow on Taliban rebels and certainly not on rumors that Osama Bin LAden was hiding in in Abbottabad in Pakistan.
What would president Zardari do? The Pakistani government was unstable already. And what would NATO say? They needed NATO support also in Iraq.
He requested an other meeting with the joint Chief of Staff and the president. If she wouldn't listen to reason he only had one option left.

(PS I'm working right now so I will only be able to post snippets of the scenario if the response stays good)
 

TheKinkster

Banned
Oh, I think I see where this is going..and if you're even THINKING about a coup of some kind please stop yourself now. This is a warning from your friendly ASB Alert System. This is not a test.
 
24th August 2010:
Maj. Gen. Craig Campbell the new Staff Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looked aside as the demonstrators were showing their posters "Out of Afghanistan: Out of Pakistan" "No more war". He stepped up the stairs of the Capital and took a deep breath. Although attacked about his Alaska connection with Palin he still had a good backing in Congress. He hoped it was enough for the new plans. Since the Paki's declared war with the USA and NATO wouldn't back-up, he and the President got recognition for their view that in the end the Americans could only count on themselves. He hoped they would get the bill past that would make it able to further mobilize America and draft all men of the age 18 up to 25 to do their duty for stars and stripes.

11th February 2011:
John Boehner listened carefully as the votes were counted. The debate in the United States Congress about increasing the debt ceiling were though. Although the debt was to high for years, the extended war effort and mobilization of troops had drained the treasury even more quickly. Could there be enough votes to support the complex deal that would end the crisis? President Palin hoped so, Boehner wasn't sure. The counting was finished.
He stood straight as he announced: "85 Nay 15 Yea, the legislation didn't pass. Meeting adjourned". A large rumble and noise followed.
 
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You are committing the Cardinal Sin of almost all recent events timelines:

Substituting your opinion of a person instead of studying them and figuring out what the actual person would do in a given situation.

"Sarah Palin was looking in the camera like a scared bunny."

No judgement there. This is an experienced Sportscaster, Mayor, and Governor, very familiar with a TV camera. Regardless of the news recieved, she won't appear on camera until composed and would only give a short prepared statement. Keeping self control on camera is a basic skill of someone who has worked in that environment.

Regardless of your opinion of her politics and policies, her biography is that of a fairly tough "tomboy" and experienced executive who is unlikely to fold under pressure.

Her winning with a POD in October, is very difficult. It comes after John McCain's mishandling of the financial crisis by "suspending" his campaign and then going to Washington and being sidelined. That turned a difficult campaign into a rout and the sympathy vote will not be able to overcome the Obama PR machine.

Don't get me started with having Palin suddenly turn insane and provoke war with Pakistan, and then try to bring back the draft. Throw in the possible military coup mentioned by one poster and you've gone into territory the ASB's wouldn't touch.
 
Regardless of your opinion of her politics and policies, her biography is that of a fairly tough "tomboy" and experienced executive who is unlikely to fold under pressure.

Except in interviews, right? Because I seem to recall two very bad interviews in September that still define her image today.

Anyway, Palin is unlikely to be the nominee in this scenario. If a party's candidate dies before the election, there is no law that says the nomination then goes to his/her vice-presidential candidate.

Yes, with it being in October, there would certainly be a massive time issue, but my guess is that the Republicans would never get behind a Palin candidacy and instead throw up a token candidate, maybe someone who lost in the primaries (Romney?).
 
He stood straight as he announced: "85 Nay 15 Yea, the legislation didn't pass. Meeting adjourned". A large rumble and noise followed.

Besides all of the other comments, which are absolutely spot on, this implies a vote of the Senate, not the House. It's Sen. McConnell who would be overlooking this vote (or whoever the VP is if it is an historic vote).

Also, any leader of the Senate or House would know of the shellacking that was coming if the vote was that lopsided. One thing leaders of legislative bodies are very good at is counting votes.
 
Except in interviews, right? Because I seem to recall two very bad interviews in September that still define her image today.

Anyway, Palin is unlikely to be the nominee in this scenario. If a party's candidate dies before the election, there is no law that says the nomination then goes to his/her vice-presidential candidate.

Yes, with it being in October, there would certainly be a massive time issue, but my guess is that the Republicans would never get behind a Palin candidacy and instead throw up a token candidate, maybe someone who lost in the primaries (Romney?).

Odds are, if McCain dies in October, the ballots have already been printed. Therefore I'm going to assume that the party would run a symbolic candidate. Electors would have to support one of the existing Presidential or Vice Presidential candidates. It would literally be a constitutional nightmare.
 
Except in interviews, right? Because I seem to recall two very bad interviews in September that still define her image today.

Anyway, Palin is unlikely to be the nominee in this scenario. If a party's candidate dies before the election, there is no law that says the nomination then goes to his/her vice-presidential candidate.

Yes, with it being in October, there would certainly be a massive time issue, but my guess is that the Republicans would never get behind a Palin candidacy and instead throw up a token candidate, maybe someone who lost in the primaries (Romney?).

Regarding the interviews in question, Palin's admitted they were bad, essentialy she let Katie Couric get under her skin with some really stupid questions, and let he emotions get the best of her. I can't remember who the other journalist was, but But handling a hostile journalist in a one on one interview is different from giving a public statement at a time of tragedy. The interviews in question should never have occured and were arranged by a senior McCain staffer, who frankly disliked Sarah Palin, and put more energy into makeing Palin look bad than she did into putting McCain in the White House..

Replacing the candidate is not a matter of law as much it is a matter of RNC rules. The issue would go to the Republican National Committee, but after the conventions, there is no time for a fight over another nominee. Since Palin was chosen by the convention as the VP candidate, odds are she moves to the top and becomes the Presidential candidate. If she is good enough to become President if McCain had keeled over with a heart attack just after his inauguration, then she is good enough to take the top spot during the campaign.

A nomination fight of any sort could not come at a worse time. The RNC would have about a week to mourn and bury McCain and come up with a replacement VP candidate, which would probably be Romney. The Palin/Romney campaign then has to turn around get back into campaign mode as soon as the mourning has ended.

Throwing the election away with a "Token" candididate would be the worst option, because it invites an internal fight, and because nobody in the rank and file is going to agree to "just throw away" a presidential election.
 
Odds are, if McCain dies in October, the ballots have already been printed. Therefore I'm going to assume that the party would run a symbolic candidate. Electors would have to support one of the existing Presidential or Vice Presidential candidates. It would literally be a constitutional nightmare.


See below:

http://archives.starbulletin.com/2008/06/19/news/kokualine.html

The Electors would support their party's nominee. McCain/Palin votes go the the Republican electors, not the candidates themselves. The actual legal Presidential Election does not occur until December when the Electoral College votes. Assuming an October RIP for McCain, assuming that the ballots do not get changed, and assuming that Palin/Romney just pull it out with the sympathy vote and win with say 50.5% of the popular vote and just a state or so above 270, then there is no real crisis. Any McCain/Palin and Palin/Romney votes would all go to the same slates of electors. Then those Electors would vote for the Palin/Romney ticket. Palin/Romney are legally elected in early January and sworn in on the 20th.
 
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>> Did you see Bush receiving the 9-11 news?

In general I'm quite motivated to try it again, thanks :confused:


I'm assuming you put the Bush 9/11 reference in the quoted part by mistake.

Bush after 9/11 was very calm. Remember, he was in a room fulll of kids, so he was trying not to scare them.

After he got out of the room, it was a matter of trying to find out what was going on, and figuring out what to do about it. It took the DOD and the White House hours to sort through conflicting reports and rumors, including dealing with some communicatons problems with Air Force One. They were still working on getting a handle on everything when Bush cut the gordian knot and ordered AF1 back to Andrews

A classic example of the Fog of War.

Back to the timeline, it can be a good timeline, but you need to put aside personal opinions about someone and approach them objectively. It is very difficult, which is why I could never do a timeline about Obama, let alone Clinton, Gore, or Kerry.

Reading the first post, it looked to me like a parody of Palin, rather than an attempt to see how she would actually react.

To get a good handle on both Palin and Obama, I would suggest referring to sources that predate the heat of the campaign. Articles on Palin published before July of 2008 and her becoming a household name, will be freer of bias, as will articles on Obama published before December 2007, and the start of the primaries.

In both cases you will see a different picture of the person, than the picture you see after national prominence.
 
I'm assuming you put the Bush 9/11 reference in the quoted part by mistake.
No I certainly did not. It was clear that for a few minutes he didn't know what to do. But how you interpret his behaviour is up to the viewer, we will never know for sure know what he felt. It was just an example what a situation can do to a person even high in rank.

The scenario I thought is about what would happen, when during a live broadcast Sarah would here news like that. And that because of a small tear and the strong behaviour after that she could indeed win the presidential election. And after that ... Well I read a lot about Sarah Palin and the things she said and done long before she even met McCain, that it wasn't hard to think about a scenario in which she stubbornly escalates a conflict. Combine that with the debt ceiling problem and you would have had quite a potent mixture :)
 
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If McCain dies in October, after Palin was essentially dismissed as a sideshow on the campaign trail, Republicans would be foolish to prop her up as the nominee. Sympathy aside, she would go on to lose in historic fashion, which very well could have devastated the party down-ballot, ballooning the Democratic majorities in both the Senate & House.

I still maintain there would be an emergency caucus and Mitt Romney, or another placeholder, would be nominated.
 
The issue is, any electors elected would be pledged to vote for Palin for vice president and free to vote for whoever (presumably whoever the RNC nominate, probably Palin) for president. The result? I'm not sure whether you can vote for the same candidate (someone did in 2004, but I don't know whether it's legal) for president and vice president. If you can, Palin is elected president and vice president, presumably taking the former and refusing the accept the latter. I don't know if that'd let the electoral college vote again for vice president, or even if you can turn down election (common sense says you can, but maybe not)

Result: Palin president, either Electoral College (normal election), Senate (deadlocked College) or all of Congress forced (as per the 25th) to choose a vice president

Or, if you can't vote for the same candidate on both ballots, the RNC has to choose a non-Palin candidate (presumably Romney) or let the Republican electors vote for the dead McCain.

Result: Romney (or whoever) president and Palin VP or McCain elected posthumously as president-elect and Palin as vice president-elect. I think under the terms of the 25th, Palin becomes president as above. The only difference here is that it's clear who appoints the VP--both houses of Congress, as per the 25th.

Under any sensible system, of course, the result should be something like Chief Justice (or Speaker, or incumbent President, or a nominee of Congress, or someone), becomes Acting President while a new election is held. But this is America!

I actually think you have it backwards. They're free to vote for any of the candidates for President (that includes the VP candidates - see 2004). I assume the electors would select Palin for President and Palin could put forth a name for Vice President for the Electors' consideration OR they would vote for McCain/Palin and on the 20th Palin would be sworn in as President and appoint a VP under the 25th Amendment
 
No I certainly did not. It was clear that for a few minutes he didn't know what to do. But how you interpret his behaviour is up to the viewer, we will never know for sure know what he felt. It was just an example what a situation can do to a person even high in rank.

The scenario I thought is about what would happen, when during a live broadcast Sarah would here news like that. And that because of a small tear and the strong behaviour after that she could indeed win the presidential election. And after that ... Well I read a lot about Sarah Palin and the things she said and done long before she even met McCain, that it wasn't hard to think about a scenario in which she stubbornly escalates a conflict. Combine that with the debt ceiling problem and you would have had quite a potent mixture :)

I think you're underestimating (Or as Bush might say, misunderestimating ;)) the armed forces leaders' abilities (especially Mullen's) to convince the President to listen to their crucial advice. I also think the underestimation stems from your dislike of Palin, and would encourage you to heed the advice from Legion.
 
If McCain dies in October, after Palin was essentially dismissed as a sideshow on the campaign trail, Republicans would be foolish to prop her up as the nominee. Sympathy aside, she would go on to lose in historic fashion, which very well could have devastated the party down-ballot, ballooning the Democratic majorities in both the Senate & House.

I still maintain there would be an emergency caucus and Mitt Romney, or another placeholder, would be nominated.

Assuming for the sake or argument that you are correct in your assessment of Palin's effect on the ticket (which I disagree with), that would still not justify the inter-party fight that would occur if you were to remove her from the ticket.

The floor of Republican votes in a presidential Election is 38.5% (1964). McCain in OTL got 45.7%. Palin at worst would still top 40% as the anti-Palin and sympathy votes wind up canceling each other out in that situation. Unless you had a brutal fight over the nomination in October, in which case the "take my marbles and go home" effect would kick in and the eventual nominee might drop to near 30% or lower, which would be a catastrophe.

It's too late after the convention to fight over the ticket. You have to go with the nominee's judgement, who after all, was ratified by the convention as the designated successor after the election anyway.

The same would apply the other way. If Obama had had a freak accident in October, the Democrats would have been foolish to dump Biden at that late date and replace him with Hillary Clinton, that fight would cost them the election.
 
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Apples & oranges. Biden actually ran for president. I'm sorry, but I just have a difficult time believing the Republican Party would just give their nomination to Palin, especially in October, when her overall impact on the ticket was being criticized by...Republicans.

Maybe you're right, tho. Regardless, I don't see any way she beats Obama. It might not be ASB, but it's close.
 
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