A Pale Horse: The Plague of 1512 (Revision)

[corourke]

The Congress of Rome

Marinus of Pisa had been anointed Archbishop of Pisa in 1517, during the plague. In that time of crisis, he displayed exceptional leadership and charity, and was one of the Republic of Pisa’s most trusted clergymen. The Republic of Pisa had reluctantly become part of the Duchy of Florence in 1402, about a hundred years earlier, and it had remained a relative backwater ever since. However, during the Horse Plague, its fortune changed considerably. Through considerable luck and proactive border control, the Republic managed to avoid much of the destruction of the plague, though it suffered from the subsequent famines and violence that affected Europe as a whole in the following years. During the wars that convulsed the Peninsula after the plague, Pisa emerged as the most powerful city in the Duchy of Florence. The Oligarchs of Pisa deposed the Duke of Florence in 1528, and replaced him with young and easily controlled Simone Saltorelli. By the beginning of the Reformation, Pisa had established itself as the premier city on the Peninsula.


When the Papacy moved to Bourges in 1522, despite being an ostensibly temporary move, it infuriated the Oligarchs of Pisa, who had long coveted Rome and the temporal power dominance of the historic city would bring. Thus, when Marinus of Pisa famously inverted the Papal Cross, his radical move was applauded by the ruling elite of the Duchy of Florence, and he was allowed and encouraged to spread his message.


It spread like wildfire, with like-minded religious authorities from Prague to Marseilles to Lisbon taking up the emblem of the inverted cross. Their message was simple - return the Papacy to Rome. By 1533, Europe was again simmering with unrest. It would only take a small spark to once again plunge the entire region into chaos. This spark came in July, when Pope Silvester IV issued the Bull “Palmes Arides”, with excommunicated the leaders of the Reformation in a document with over 300 names, including clergy and the royalty who had harbored them.

A surviving page of the Papal Bull, Palmes Arides.

​

The response was swift and drastic. The leaders of the Reformation called together the Congress of Rome, a meeting of Bishops and Archbishops from important cities within the reach of the Reformation. Cities represented included Lisbon, Seville, Madrid, Grenada, Milan, Grenada, Pisa, Naples, Vienna, Munich, Budapest, and Bratislava. Several cities in Southern France attempted to send representation, but were unsuccessful. The Hussite Church in Bohemia declined to send representatives, as did several cities along the Baltic and North Seas, despite their opposition to a French Pope. The Patriarchs of Constantinople, Alexandria, and Moscow sent observers.


After almost a week of deliberation, the congress announced its decision. They declared the Bull Palmes Arides null and void, condemned Pope Silvester IV as a heretic, and Archbishop Marinus of Pisa was consecrated Pope Peter II. By claiming the original Papal name Peter, the congregation sought to affirm its identity as the true continuation of the Catholic Church. This announcement was met with jubilation in the streets of many rebelling cities, including those in Southern France. The celebration was cut short, however, when on October 23rd, 1533, Pope Silvester III issued a second Bull, Principis Apostolorum, calling for a crusade on the city of Rome, now inhabited by heathens.


France immediately pledged its support as did Poland, Scotland, and several central German city-states. Denmark and Sweden were struggling with domestic revolts, but pledged their support to the cause. On the Reformist side, Pisa, the city-states of Iberia and Italy, Austria, and Hungary joined in alliance. Bohemia, despite its Hungarian king, declared neutrality in the conflict.
​

 

[rcduggan]

I suppose the Prophesy of the Popes has not been published yet, so there is no negative connotation with using Peter II. This looks interesting, a start of a civil war in the Catholic Church. Reformists against Traditionalists, it will be interesting to see who wins. Keep up the good work!

 

[corourke]

Oh, I forgot, the names of the Papal Bulls are thanks to the Latin expertise of our own carlton_bach. Thanks!

I suppose the Prophesy of the Popes has not been published yet, so there is no negative connotation with using Peter II. This looks interesting, a start of a civil war in the Catholic Church. Reformists against Traditionalists, it will be interesting to see who wins. Keep up the good work!

Ha! I didn't know about that! Got lucky with that one, I guess.

 

[corourke]

blog comments

These are some comments Strategos' Risk posted on the website:

Bourgues? Not Avignon?

The Papacy was moved to Bourgues because Avignon was hit rather badly by the Plague and was in almost as much chaos as Rome. Bourgues is safely located within central France, which wasn't hit as badly as the south.

I have to wonder what theological impetus is behind the Reformation, though the devastating Plague and its effects on society surely have brought many new teachings to the forefront. But for now, it looks just like a turf war between French and Pisan interests.

I think the theological differences are going to be minimal at first. It's somewhat of a turf war; the Italians and the other Reformist-minded folks perceive that the French are attempting (and succeeding) to control the Papacy, and, bound together in part by their common experience in the Plague, resist that.

I'm thinking that, later, as the theological differences begin to be defined, I imagine that the Roman Catholics will have some beliefs associated with the Plague -- that it was sent by God to punish sinners. I think there will be a crackdown on Jews and Orthodox Christians in those areas initially.

Does anyone have any ideas on other doctrinal differences? I am woefully ignorant of Christian theology.

 

[HueyLong]

Does anyone have any ideas on other doctrinal differences? I am woefully ignorant of Christian theology.

I think you can have the survival of some odd groups on each side. Northern and Eastern Europe had Flagellants, IOTL, why not let this become a common mode of penitence?

As for Italy, there was a group called the passagi (IIRC) who adopted many Jewish dietary laws and a few new ones. Maybe this becomes common?

 

[corourke]

I think you can have the survival of some odd groups on each side. Northern and Eastern Europe had Flagellants, IOTL, why not let this become a common mode of penitence?

That's pretty interesting. The Northern Reformists will kind of evolve to be more like OTL Protestants. They won't be a unified Church and so there will be room for a lot of different sects, including a Hussite one in Bohemia. Northern Reformists will probably eventually spread to dominant Scandinavia and northern Germany, though to a lesser extent than Protestantism in OTL.

 

[Kalan]

Does anyone have any ideas on other doctrinal differences? I am woefully ignorant of Christian theology.

Well they would obviously differ in their interpretation of the plague: The roman catholic would probably see it as a preemptive punishment of the areas which did betray their faith later on. The reformist would see it as a punishment for the pope which has abandoned the true christian religion and as a punishment for the Iberian Kings which had abandoned the Reconquista in favor of colonial adventures.

Once it is clear that the split will be permanent they will disagree simply to show that they are different. One possible dispute would be the Eucharist: The catholic church used the teaching of Plato to explain it: according to this the Substance (the true form) was different from the Akzidenz the form we perceive. Thus the Substance of breed and wine were substituted by blood and body of christ while the Akzidenz stayed as it is. This view is called Transubstantiation, and was heavily disputed in OTL reformation, Luther believed that the idea to explain a christian concept with pagan philosophy was very dangerous, but Jesus Chirst was present anyway, Zwingli and Calivin believed that Jesus Christ was only present in spirit but not in flesh.
It is also very likely that the reformist will also begin a carefull examination of everything the Concils and popes have ever said and test is on "contradictions" with the bible, a process which will end with the removal of many decsions beeing revoked.

If I understood you correctly, the catholic pope is very dependant of the french and poland, while the reformist Pope needs the support of hungary, Austria, Iberia and the Italian States. Thus I forsee many "theological" changes which purley out of coincidence support the rulers of those countries.

 

[rcduggan]

Ha! I didn't know about that! Got lucky with that one, I guess.

Guess so. Since Peter supposedly was the first pope, using Peter II was taboo. There was never any law against it, but no pope would take that name out of respect for the founder... but of course the plague would screw convention up in every way possible. Since the Prophesy had not been published by this point in OTL, there were no apocalyptic connections with the name "Peter II." So I think it is possible that a reformist pope would use the name.

 

[corourke]

The Reformist Wars

The Reformist Wars

From:
Mann, David. A History of the Reformist Wars. 1936. Edinburgh, Britainia.

Contents and Selected Excerpts​

Chapter I: The Declaration of the Roman Crusade

Chapter II: The Occitan Uprising of 1533 and the Burning of Provence

“As French crusading armies made their way to Italy, they found a south of France that was strangely barren for the time of year. The Reformation had spread much faster in Southern France than had been anticipated, and the revolting peasants were not interested in helping the crusaders in their mission to conquer the Holy City. The crusaders found entire fields and grain stores burned, and everywhere faced brigands and a populace they could not trust. Frustrated and angry, the crusaders sacked Provence, setting off an active resistance that saw open battles between peasant forces and the crusading armies. The crusader’s departure from the south of France was as much a retreat as it was anything else, and by the time they arrived in Northern Italy, their numbers were already reduced by 10-30%” (Mann 74)


Chapter III: The Conversion of Henry XIII and the English Civil War

The Conversion of Henry XIII​

“Henry XIII of England had long taken issue with the Pope’s influence in his personal and political affairs. He was a notorious philanderer, and the traditional Catholic stance on issues of marriage and
Henry XIII of England had long taken issue with the Pope’s influence in his personal and political affairs. He was a notorious philanderer, and the traditional Catholic stance on issues of marriage and legitimacy did not appeal to him. It was perhaps this consistent conflict with the papacy that caused him to declare for the Reformists in 1535.”


“It was indubitably a political move, and a poor one at that. Henry XIII must have known his decision would lead to war with France and Scotland, and the most likely explanation is that he hoped a war would solidify popular support for the Crown. His kingship had never been popular, and after the plague decimated London, serious legitimacy issues had begun to emerge.”
“He grossly underestimated the support he would find. A large faction of the Army deserted, and, perhaps prompted by Scottish agents, escaped to York, where they announced their intention to depose the heretic King of England. The First English Civil War lasted until 1539 without either side gaining the upper hand until the entry of Scotland at the end of that year. The Reformist forces of Henry XIII forces were larger and for the most part better equipped, but had small levels of support outside of London and southern England” (Mann 127)


Chapter IV: The Conquest of Milan

Chapter V: The Coronation of James IV, King of Scots, as James I of England

“Henry XIII was burned at the stake on March 17th, 1540, and James IV of Scotland was crowned James I of England on Easter of that year by the French Pope Silvester IV. Most of the English population had remained true to the French Catholic church and welcomed the change. In some areas of southern England, however, there were small uprisings and there remains even to this day a minority of Reformist Catholics in those areas who recognize the Pope in Rome” (Mann 247)


Chapter VI: The Jagiellon Conquest of Munich and the Conversion of Duke Louis X of Bavaria

“The Polish conquest of Munich during the Reformist Wars revealed the level of influence that country had gained in Central Europe and the Holy Roman Empire in the years after the Horse Plague. Indeed, Poland’s rise to power can be clearly traced to the extremely low death rate during the plague year. As had been the case in the Black Death, large swaths of central Poland were entirely unaffected by the plague. This apparent immunity did great things for the Polish national spirit, in much the same way as in Safavid Persia.”


“Though the attack on Munich, apart from a few feints into eastern Hungary in the beginning of the war, was the only substantial anti-Reformist effort made by the Polish army during the war, it solidified Polish influence in the Papal court at Bourges as well as in Bavaria and Brandenburg” (Mann 300)
“When discussing Poland’s rise to power after the Horse Plague, it is impossible not to discuss Scandinavia as well. The jockeying for influence and power within the Holy Roman Empire that took place between Poland and Sweden (and, to a lesser extent, Denmark )defined the tone of the Reformation Wars in central Germany. Indeed, the confrontations between the two ostensibly allied nations that took place during the Reformist Wars can be seen as the opening shots of a group of conflicts commonly called the Great Northern War, which would last for almost 250 years and stretch from central Germany to Finland and the lands of Muscovy” (Mann 312)


Chapter VII: The Protestant Uprisings in Northern Europe

“The Reformist Wars are usually described as the conflict between the French and Roman Catholic Churches after the Second Schism. However, that ignores the important influence of unaligned reformists in Northern Europe during this time. These Protestants, as they came to be called, were disgusted by the transparently political motivations behind the Second Schism, and renounced the very concept of a Papacy. While initially limited in scope, the Protestant movement steadily gained members throughout the sixteenth and seventeeth centuries” (Mann 350)


“While the Hussite Church has traditionally been limited to the Kingdom of Bohemia and its dependencies, it is notable as the first denomination of Protestant Christianity to emerge. Its strict policy of neutrality in the Reformist Wars, a policy wisely respected by the Hungarian King of Bohemia, Louis II. This assertion of neutrality was a key part of the gradual progression toward independence undertaken by the nobility of Bohemia, culminating in its peaceful separation from Hungary in 1616″ (Mann 377)​

 

[Roberto]

Holy Hopscotch, Batman!

Scotland leading a Personal Union of England! Among other things!

I've said it many times, and I'll say it again; awesome TL.

 

[Nicomacheus]

An English King burnt at the stake! Eegads, no one expects the English Inquisition I suppose.

The Great Northern War lasts for 250 years...cool. Huzzah for Poland.

And a neutralist Protestantism leading Bohemia to create an island of stability in the HRE (one would presume former HRE if a country can peaceably become Protestant). That should do interesting things as far as where wars are fought TTL.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Er... bit of an embarrassment there. You've got your X's and V's mixed up.

 

[Malta]

Stable Bohemia? That should be interesting....

Hmm, looks like Southern France may seperate from the North?

 

[rcduggan]

Henry XIII looks remarkably like Henry VIII...

Chapter IV: The Conquest of Milan

Did you miss part of it? There is nothing written there.

Poland dominating the HRE is a very interesting twist.

 

[corourke]

Thanks for the kind words everyone...

Scotland leading a Personal Union of England! Among other things!

Yes, I like this bit. Over time Scotland's dominance will naturally decrease, but for the time being, Scottish interests will completely dominate the foreign and domestic policy of the alt-UK. It would be very interesting to have Scottish influence creep into English language ITTL. Anyone have any ideas on what kind of influence it might have?

And a neutralist Protestantism leading Bohemia to create an island of stability in the HRE (one would presume former HRE if a country can peaceably become Protestant). That should do interesting things as far as where wars are fought TTL.

ITTL the HRE becomes less important much earlier. Because the majority of the HRE is now dominated by the French Catholic Church or the unaligned or Hussite Protestant Churches, it doesn't really matter even as much as it did after the Treaty of Westfalia. One side effect of this however is that the Italian and Swiss states say in, which will play a role in Italian unification later in this TL.

Er... bit of an embarrassment there. You've got your X's and V's mixed up.

oops! I wish I could edit my post...

Hmm, looks like Southern France may seperate from the North?

I doubt that will happen. France is simply too strong to allow its southern provinces to slip away at this point. However it is a sort of bleeding wound in France's belly, and this weakness could be exploited by enemies of France... It will make it a lot harder for France to exert power in Italy.

Did you miss part of it? There is nothing written there.

No, it's just a chapter I didn't "take an excerpt from". It's not really important to the story I am telling, but it would be important to this fictional book written about the history of the conflict.

 

[Cromm Crúaich]

An excellent update!
I take it from "1936. Edinburgh, Britainia." that Scotland will continue to lead Britain for quite some time?

 

[corourke]

The Swiss Civil War

The Swiss Civil War

During the Reformist Wars, the internal dynamics of the Swiss Confederation were a microcosm of European politics, a virtual international system in and of themselves. The different cantons of Switzerland declared for different sides of the conflict – some identified as Loyalist or French Catholics, some as Reformist or Roman Catholics, and some simply rejected both, as had happened in parts of Northern Germany and Scandinavia.


This participation in the reformist war was not without costs. Milan had only in 1520 joined the Swiss Confederation, and as its newest member, sought to demonstrate its commitment to the confederation by confronting the French crusaders in the Battle of Ticino in a valley outside the city. It was sorely unprepared. Milan, which had only just begun to recover from the decimation it had experienced during the plague, was burnt to the ground by the French crusaders. In addition to international incidents, skirmishes between the armies of different cantons were common. Indeed, it is amazing that the confederation held together at all, considering the intense centrifugal forces that were pulling it apart at its very seams.


In reality, the Swiss Confederation effectively ceased to exist as a cooperative entity between 1534 and the peace treaty in 1549. The Tagsatzung, the Swiss legislative and executive council, did not meet more than a few times between 1534 and 1536, and then ceased to meet altogether until 1549.


The story of the eventual peace treaty is ensconced in the legend of the creation of what is contemporarily known as the Second Confederation, which lasted from 1549 until 1794. As the story goes, in the Battle of Aplnachersee, the general commanding the army of Geneva, Pierre Lefevre, captured Saccorno, the senior general from Milan. This was an important achievement and could have spelled doom for Reformist Milan. However Lefevre’s camp was ambushed by the unaligned Reformist army of Appenzell, a relatively weak northern canton. The commander of the army of Appenzell, Tomas Rückener, in a one-sided battle, captured both Lefevre and the Milanese general Saccorno. Amazed by his luck, he was preparing his list of demands to send to Milan and Geneva when news arrived that his capital city had been captured by the army of Milan. This put each of the generals in an interesting position of being at once advantaged and disadvantaged.



The negotiations that followed were conducted on an equal basis. Representatives of all of the Cantons were invited and seated in equal standing. The treaty that followed, called the Peace of Bern, would serve as a model for the European peace treaty a few years later.

Banner of the Second Swiss Confederation

The Peace of Bern

• No canton may exercise power within the boundaries of another.
• There shall be no war between cantons, and an attack on one canton is to be viewed as an attack on the Swiss Confederacy
• The Confederacy recognizes no Pope. The Confederacy is to be religiously neutral under Christ.
• Each canton can determine which denomination to follow.
• Each canton guarantees the rights of denominational minorities within its boundaries to practice their religion privately.
• The Tagsatzung was to meet twice a year in Baden and twice a year in Geneva.
• Cities wishing to join the Swiss Confederation must agree to the terms presented by the Peace of Bern before they will be considered by the Tagsatzung.

 

[corourke]

So the Peace of Bern is based on the Peace of Westphalia. My idea is for the eventual peace that ends the Reformist Wars to be based on the Peace of Bern, with some alterations. The Peace of Bern kind of puts the Swiss at the forefront of European statesmanship and for a time they will be the most modern form of government.

How do the stipulations of the treaty look? Does anyone have any ideas of other things I should put in the treaty, or things that should definitely be included in the treaty that ends the Reformist Wars?

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

Any chance for a political map of europe?

 

[Valdemar II]

Interesting, but with Milan as depopulated by the plague and as a member of the Swiss Confederation do we see emigration from the rest of Switzerland (which was more or less untouched by the plague) to Milan and the rest of the Po valley?