corourke
Donor
This is great criticism, exactly the kind of stuff I need to improve this TL. Thanks a lot!
New update coming shortly.
A Pale Horse: The Plague of 1512 (Revision)
- Thread starter corourke
- Start date
This is great criticism, exactly the kind of stuff I need to improve this TL. Thanks a lot!
New update coming shortly.
corourke
Donor
The End of Portuguese Dominance in the Indian Ocean
The cessation of Portuguese expeditions to the Indian Ocean after the arrival of the Horse Plague to Portugal proved to be central to the development of the region in the end of the medieval ages. In the previous two decades since Vasco da Gama’s rounding of the Cape of Good Hope, the Portuguese had been busy establishing themselves as the premier naval power in the Indian Ocean. Forts along the coasts, from Mombasa to Malacca, fell to the Portuguese Navy’s superior ships and cannon.
This, of course, all changed when the Horse Plague arrived in Portugal. The cessation of expeditions to the Indian Ocean, and the reinforcements of men and weapons they brought, spelled certain doom for the Portuguese forts in the region. In some places, like Goa, the Portuguese were violently cast out, much to the eventual chagrin of the new rulers. In other places, most notably Gujarat, the Vijayanagar Empire, and Oman, the Portuguese were bribed into collaborating with local rulers as mercenaries. These rulers gave the Portuguese officers a remarkable amount of power to reform their navies, and with the Portuguese trade embargoes gone, enough money to convince them to do it.
However, the power vacuum left by the Portuguese was not so easily filled. A type of arms race developed in the Indian Ocean, with the Portuguese mercenaries commanding the highest prices for their services. These Portuguese became so individually wealthy and powerful that, for a while after the collapse of formal Portuguese power, a sort of informal elite of former Portuguese naval officers ruled the seas. The most important effect of this was the rapid diffusion of ship-building knowledge across Asia. In less than seventy years, slightly modified Portuguese-style carracks could be seen plying the seas as far east as Japan and China.
A Japanese carrack-derivative, featured in a Chinese woodcut from 1609
The End of Portuguese Dominance in the Indian Ocean
The cessation of Portuguese expeditions to the Indian Ocean after the arrival of the Horse Plague to Portugal proved to be central to the development of the region in the end of the medieval ages. In the previous two decades since Vasco da Gama’s rounding of the Cape of Good Hope, the Portuguese had been busy establishing themselves as the premier naval power in the Indian Ocean. Forts along the coasts, from Mombasa to Malacca, fell to the Portuguese Navy’s superior ships and cannon.
This, of course, all changed when the Horse Plague arrived in Portugal. The cessation of expeditions to the Indian Ocean, and the reinforcements of men and weapons they brought, spelled certain doom for the Portuguese forts in the region. In some places, like Goa, the Portuguese were violently cast out, much to the eventual chagrin of the new rulers. In other places, most notably Gujarat, the Vijayanagar Empire, and Oman, the Portuguese were bribed into collaborating with local rulers as mercenaries. These rulers gave the Portuguese officers a remarkable amount of power to reform their navies, and with the Portuguese trade embargoes gone, enough money to convince them to do it.
However, the power vacuum left by the Portuguese was not so easily filled. A type of arms race developed in the Indian Ocean, with the Portuguese mercenaries commanding the highest prices for their services. These Portuguese became so individually wealthy and powerful that, for a while after the collapse of formal Portuguese power, a sort of informal elite of former Portuguese naval officers ruled the seas. The most important effect of this was the rapid diffusion of ship-building knowledge across Asia. In less than seventy years, slightly modified Portuguese-style carracks could be seen plying the seas as far east as Japan and China.
A Japanese carrack-derivative, featured in a Chinese woodcut from 1609
When Europeans reentered the Indian Ocean in the seventeenth century, they found a very different world from the peaceful one the Portuguese had intruded into more than a century before. The ocean was now a battleground between the navies of various Asian states, fighting for the right to ship goods from east to west. From its base in Arabia, the city-state of Oman now dominated most of the East African coast. India’s rich coastal cities were fought over by two dire enemies, Gujarat and the Vijayanagar Empire. Farther east, Ming China battled the Japanese pirates collectively known as the Wokou.
The flood of technology introduced by the Portuguese in the decades before the Horse Plague was undoubtedly the most important factor in the naval renaissance enjoyed by the various powers of Asia in the sixteenth century. This so-called great equalization would prove to have extremely important effects when Europeans returned to and subsequently attempted to control trade in the Indian Ocean.
The flood of technology introduced by the Portuguese in the decades before the Horse Plague was undoubtedly the most important factor in the naval renaissance enjoyed by the various powers of Asia in the sixteenth century. This so-called great equalization would prove to have extremely important effects when Europeans returned to and subsequently attempted to control trade in the Indian Ocean.
corourke
Donor
Oman is going to play a role somewhat like that of Portugal in our timeline. While they're quick to react and the first ones to the scene a lot of times, they simply don't have the manpower or resources to defeat larger, more populous powers in a long-term war. Unless they're able to conquer and integrate larger parts of the Arab world into their empire, they're doomed to a sideline role as manpower and resources become more and more important.
Actually, the Plague preempted the Dutch colonial empire by about forty years, as the Netherlands weren't even independent at that time. But don't worry about it, they'll get back on their feet soon enough
corourke
Donor
HueyLong said:
Thanks a lot, and that brings up a good point: I don't really know how to do "francification" of words. I don't know French, and I kind of just made up "Tarasequis" or whatever it was that I wrote.
Wikipedia tells me that the Tarascans called themselves "Purepecha", what would be a good way to "francify" that? What about the Inca? Quechua was the name of the language, and Tawantinsuyu was what they called their empire, but I don't know where the name "Inca" actually came from. How would I francify those names?
thanks to any adventurous French-speaker who wants to give it a shot
corourke
Donor
The Plague in the Ottoman Empire
Out of the chaos emerged Emir Ibrahim. Born an Orthodox Christian Greek around 1490, he was sold into slavery in his childhood, where he was forced to convert to Islam. He became a slave of the heir to the Ottoman throne, Suleiman. When the Horse Plague struck, Anatolia was plunged into chaos. Records of the heir and Ibrahim cease until 1519, when he emerges at the head of an army of Janissaries, laying siege to the ruined capital of Istanbul, loyal sultan-to-be in tow.
After taking the capital and proclaiming his ‘master’ to be the new Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, the Emir toured the empire at the head of his magnificent army, pacifying the rebellious provinces. By 1522, after ten years of plague and war, the Empire was whole once more, and indeed a great deal more stable than some of the other plague-affected areas of Europe.
In the years following the plague and civil war, a steady flow of mostly Christian immigrants from the Balkans gradually repopulated the ruined cities of Anatolia. Many, faced with the heavy taxation and administrative discrimination levied on non-Muslims, found it difficult to integrate into the society. Over time, however, the religious reforms enacted by Suleiman at the behest of Emir Ibrahim did much to smooth the transition for these immigrants, and greatly increased their ability to become integrated into the society of these rapidly transforming cities.
In 1526, Sultan Suleiman I initiated a series of religious reforms aimed to encourage the conversion of the Christians of the Empire. His first move was to commission the Koran to be translated into Greek, much to the astonishment and disgust of the rest of the Muslim world. After the translation was completed in 1528, he, calling upon his authority as Caliph, issued a series of fatwas concerning the role of Christian saints in Islam, acceding that though they were somewhat misguided, their core morality was indisputable. In his most controversial fatwa of 1531, he declared Jesus to be the logical precursor of Mohammed, and asserted that Mohammed could not have been successful without calling upon the precedents set by Jesus.
Suleiman I’s motivation for making these reforms is impossible to know. However, it is possible to observe the situation of the Ottoman Empire and the royal court in the 1520s and ‘30s and, from this information, make several assertions. It is known that Ibrahim was an Orthodox Christian at birth, and he is said to have converted to Islam sometime in his late childhood. It is also known that Emir Ibrahim was the real power behind the throne. His iron hold over the Janissary corps, who were Christians, was undisputable and can be seen as the source of his power over the Sultan.
By observing these facts, an explanation seems to surface. It is possible that Ibrahim’s conversion was faked or otherwise insincere, and that he remained Christian while pretending to have been converted. This would certainly help to explain the Janissary corps’ unusual loyalty to him. Thusly has it been asserted by many historians that Sultan Suleiman I was merely a puppet of Emir Ibrahim, and his religious reforms may have been designed to aid in the eventual Christianization of the Ottoman Empire. Though they did not culminate in the Christianization of the Ottoman Empire or a Byzantine Restoration, the reforms did aid in the integration of the Christian immigrants from the Balkans into the cities of Anatolia and Thrace. Over the course of the sixteenth century, most of these immigrants eventually converted to the syncretic form of Islam that developed in the Empire, which came to be called Osmani Islam.
[FONT="]The Plague in the Ottoman Empire[/FONT]
The Ottoman Empire was the first European polity to be affected by the plague. It experienced casualties of the same magnitude as the Iberian Peninsula or Italy. Most of these deaths were in Western Anatolia, traditionally an area the Empire could rely on for support. The Sultan Selim I was one of the first victims of the Horse Plague, and the death of the Sultan combined with widespread looting and chaos dramatically undermined the Empire’s stability. For the first few years of the plague, many areas and factions of the military operated completely independently of central control, and it appeared that the empire would fall apart.
A posthumous portrait of Emir Ibrahim, painted in 1699 by famous painter Konstaniyos
Out of the chaos emerged Emir Ibrahim. Born an Orthodox Christian Greek around 1490, he was sold into slavery in his childhood, where he was forced to convert to Islam. He became a slave of the heir to the Ottoman throne, Suleiman. When the Horse Plague struck, Anatolia was plunged into chaos. Records of the heir and Ibrahim cease until 1519, when he emerges at the head of an army of Janissaries, laying siege to the ruined capital of Istanbul, loyal sultan-to-be in tow.
After taking the capital and proclaiming his ‘master’ to be the new Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, the Emir toured the empire at the head of his magnificent army, pacifying the rebellious provinces. By 1522, after ten years of plague and war, the Empire was whole once more, and indeed a great deal more stable than some of the other plague-affected areas of Europe.
In the years following the plague and civil war, a steady flow of mostly Christian immigrants from the Balkans gradually repopulated the ruined cities of Anatolia. Many, faced with the heavy taxation and administrative discrimination levied on non-Muslims, found it difficult to integrate into the society. Over time, however, the religious reforms enacted by Suleiman at the behest of Emir Ibrahim did much to smooth the transition for these immigrants, and greatly increased their ability to become integrated into the society of these rapidly transforming cities.
Religious Reforms
In 1526, Sultan Suleiman I initiated a series of religious reforms aimed to encourage the conversion of the Christians of the Empire. His first move was to commission the Koran to be translated into Greek, much to the astonishment and disgust of the rest of the Muslim world. After the translation was completed in 1528, he, calling upon his authority as Caliph, issued a series of fatwas concerning the role of Christian saints in Islam, acceding that though they were somewhat misguided, their core morality was indisputable. In his most controversial fatwa of 1531, he declared Jesus to be the logical precursor of Mohammed, and asserted that Mohammed could not have been successful without calling upon the precedents set by Jesus.
Suleiman I’s motivation for making these reforms is impossible to know. However, it is possible to observe the situation of the Ottoman Empire and the royal court in the 1520s and ‘30s and, from this information, make several assertions. It is known that Ibrahim was an Orthodox Christian at birth, and he is said to have converted to Islam sometime in his late childhood. It is also known that Emir Ibrahim was the real power behind the throne. His iron hold over the Janissary corps, who were Christians, was undisputable and can be seen as the source of his power over the Sultan.
By observing these facts, an explanation seems to surface. It is possible that Ibrahim’s conversion was faked or otherwise insincere, and that he remained Christian while pretending to have been converted. This would certainly help to explain the Janissary corps’ unusual loyalty to him. Thusly has it been asserted by many historians that Sultan Suleiman I was merely a puppet of Emir Ibrahim, and his religious reforms may have been designed to aid in the eventual Christianization of the Ottoman Empire. Though they did not culminate in the Christianization of the Ottoman Empire or a Byzantine Restoration, the reforms did aid in the integration of the Christian immigrants from the Balkans into the cities of Anatolia and Thrace. Over the course of the sixteenth century, most of these immigrants eventually converted to the syncretic form of Islam that developed in the Empire, which came to be called Osmani Islam.
Although the Janissaries were born to Christian families, I'm pretty sure they all converted to Islam eventually.
Someone commented that the Christianity their families were brought up in was rather debased and superstitious and they probably first encountered a real "organized religion" when they arrived in Constantinople. That's going to be a heck of a lot more influential on still-forming young minds than half-remembered stuff from childhood.
Also, I think it would be "Osmanli Islam," not "Osmani Islam."
Someone commented that the Christianity their families were brought up in was rather debased and superstitious and they probably first encountered a real "organized religion" when they arrived in Constantinople. That's going to be a heck of a lot more influential on still-forming young minds than half-remembered stuff from childhood.
Also, I think it would be "Osmanli Islam," not "Osmani Islam."
Nice. Osmani Islam is a bit more plausible than the original version, I think, which had Ibrahim's machinations prompt the creation of a whole new religion. It seems like it will greatly enhance the ability of Orthodox Christians to assimilate: however, there's still the issue of ikons. I'd imagine that is the fatwa of 1531 acknowledges the role of the saints, then perhaps subsequent rulings might allow depictions of those saints, so long as it is the saints worshiped rather than the images. To the peasant of course it won't matter, but it would make conversion simpler. This would grow to be a marked different with the rest of Islam. I wonder if Osmani Islam might grow to have more of a religious hierarchy to supplement the Sultan's role in its formation.
I presume Jews are still fairly well tolerated by the rulings concern the Pact of Usman (good treatment of those of the book). I wonder though if more Christian influences might change this. Huzzah for any chance the Ottomans have at reform, however.
I also wonder what the butterfly affects will be in India. I think the Mughals are probably just getting started; certainly their efforts to adapt to Hindusim will be helped by the example of the Ottomans.
As always a very thought provoking turn of events.
Also, I still love this line:
I presume Jews are still fairly well tolerated by the rulings concern the Pact of Usman (good treatment of those of the book). I wonder though if more Christian influences might change this. Huzzah for any chance the Ottomans have at reform, however.
I also wonder what the butterfly affects will be in India. I think the Mughals are probably just getting started; certainly their efforts to adapt to Hindusim will be helped by the example of the Ottomans.
As always a very thought provoking turn of events.
Also, I still love this line:
corouke said:
~The Doctor~
Awesome timeline. Looking forward to how well the North American Indians weather the Second Age of Colonialism.
Am I right in assuming that the "Fortunate Isles" are, in fact, the Canaries?
Am I right in assuming that the "Fortunate Isles" are, in fact, the Canaries?
Yes, it was the title of the emperor.
On the Tarascans: I was arguing not that the Tarscans wouldn't be named for an exonym, but that they would be unlikely to be named from a Nahuatl exonym if, by the time Europeans arive, they are the dominant power in mesoamerica.
Not a native speaker, but...
Pourepetchais seems possible (if the "u" is an "oo" sound, and the "ch" is pronounced as it is in English).
Inca could be stay the same or be Inqua.
from Wiki
L'espagnol et le quechua sont les deux langues officielles du Pérou. Le quechua et l'aymara sont surtout parlés dans les Andes où les indigènes sont plus nombreux.
so "quechua" is the same in modern French, although I'd guess Quetchua or Quetchuais if it hadn't been borrowed through spanish
Taouantinsuyu might be the last, or simply "les quatre quartiers"
corourke
Donor
Thanks for the comments everyone!
That sounds good. That sounds like it could lead fairly easily into depictions of Muslim holy men, as well.
The Safavids are quite different in this TL, and they're going to have a large effect on India and the rise of the Mughals.
Yeah, sorry for any confusion.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. It seems like it would be hard to find an alternative exonym for the Tarascans, so I will probably end up just using that one. We've got quite a few updates to go before we get there, in any case.
That sounds good.
Well, the Safavids are very different in this timeline, and that will have large effects for India.
That sounds good. That sounds like it could lead fairly easily into depictions of Muslim holy men, as well.
The Safavids are quite different in this TL, and they're going to have a large effect on India and the rise of the Mughals.
~The Doctor~ said:
Yeah, sorry for any confusion.
Atom said:
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. It seems like it would be hard to find an alternative exonym for the Tarascans, so I will probably end up just using that one. We've got quite a few updates to go before we get there, in any case.
Dathi THorfinnsson said:
That sounds good.
Well, the Safavids are very different in this timeline, and that will have large effects for India.
corourke
Donor
The Rise of the Safavid Empire
[FONT="]The Rise of the Safavid Empire
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
The Horse Plague arrived at exactly the right time for the Safavid Empire. The Empire itself, by some trick of luck and weather patterns, was relatively unaffected by the Plague, with only limited outbreaks in border areas. While its neighbors to the south and west collapsed into anarchy, the Safavids, led by Shah Ismail I, stood by. When news of the Horse Plague reached the cities of the empire, Shah Ismail I was said to have said: “The Prophet shines his goodwill upon us, we, the Alevi, who follow his true path”. Indeed, the ease with which the Safavid Empire weathered the Plague years and the prosperity of those years was surely a convincing argument for conversion. It has been cited as the principal reason for the ease with which the conquered lands were converted.
The Emblem of Alevi Islam
The Empire had been expanding rapidly in the years before the arrival of the plague. However, in recent times, the Safavids had been confronted with a serious threat to their sovereignty - the Ottoman Empire. Border skirmishes had occurred, and these rarely went well for the Safavids. A series of aggressive letters between the Shah and the Sultan had recently been exchanged, and in 1512 it appeared as though a war was imminent. The Horse Plague changed everything.
The Horse Plague allowed the Safavid Empire to consolidate its hold over its recent conquests. With the sword of the Ottoman Empire no longer held to his throat, the Safavids could focus on subduing traditionally Persian-dominated areas of Central Asia such as Bukhara, Merv, and Samarqand. In addition, he was able to extend his reach to the shores of the Black Sea by conquering the key city of Batum in Northeast Anatolia. Later, in the 1520s, the collapse of Portuguese naval power in the Indian Ocean combined with the construction of the Safavid Navy enabled the Shah to reconquer Hormuz, as well as add the important trading city of Zubarah to his vast empire.
Safavid Expansion to 1532
In later years, as Europe emerged from the chaos of the Horse Plague, the port city of Batum became one of the most valuable in the Empire, and one of the most fortified cities in the Near East. Goods from the Silk Road cities in Central Asia flowed uninhibited through the Safavid domains to be exported to Europe. Indeed, the ease with which these eastern goods were purchased in Batum often made the journey around Africa inefficient in comparison, reducing the focus on that trade route.
The Emblem of Alevi Islam
The Empire had been expanding rapidly in the years before the arrival of the plague. However, in recent times, the Safavids had been confronted with a serious threat to their sovereignty - the Ottoman Empire. Border skirmishes had occurred, and these rarely went well for the Safavids. A series of aggressive letters between the Shah and the Sultan had recently been exchanged, and in 1512 it appeared as though a war was imminent. The Horse Plague changed everything.
The Horse Plague allowed the Safavid Empire to consolidate its hold over its recent conquests. With the sword of the Ottoman Empire no longer held to his throat, the Safavids could focus on subduing traditionally Persian-dominated areas of Central Asia such as Bukhara, Merv, and Samarqand. In addition, he was able to extend his reach to the shores of the Black Sea by conquering the key city of Batum in Northeast Anatolia. Later, in the 1520s, the collapse of Portuguese naval power in the Indian Ocean combined with the construction of the Safavid Navy enabled the Shah to reconquer Hormuz, as well as add the important trading city of Zubarah to his vast empire.
Safavid Expansion to 1532
In later years, as Europe emerged from the chaos of the Horse Plague, the port city of Batum became one of the most valuable in the Empire, and one of the most fortified cities in the Near East. Goods from the Silk Road cities in Central Asia flowed uninhibited through the Safavid domains to be exported to Europe. Indeed, the ease with which these eastern goods were purchased in Batum often made the journey around Africa inefficient in comparison, reducing the focus on that trade route.
Nice to see the Safavids benefiting from the plague. For some reason I've always rather liked them.
Nice post. I must say, the TL has a very high production quality. It's AH.com...in HD!
I am curious, though: wouldn't the Ottomans be able to curtail the amount of trade that passes through Batum by controling the Bosporus? The Ottomans also control Egypt (IIRC), so they can thwart any attempts at a Suez arrangement.
Add to that the substantial difficulty of transporting goods over the Caucuses and I'd imagine the polticis and economics in favor of a direct trade route are still fundamentally there. The major stopper to a resumed Indian Ocean trade would seem to be the greater chaos and general danger resulting from a proliferation of Portugese sailing technology.
The economics will support finding a safe, direct route, though. Searches for a northwest passage or interest in controling the Isthmus of Panama (or perhaps Tierra del Fuego) is probably all the more important for European Trade.
Nico,
Those are good points. Thing is, with the Ottomans as weakened as they are by the plague, I think the Safavids could bully them into keeping the Straits open to the Batum trade, at least for awhile.
Those are good points. Thing is, with the Ottomans as weakened as they are by the plague, I think the Safavids could bully them into keeping the Straits open to the Batum trade, at least for awhile.